Examining Rookie Performance - QBs

  Posted 6/26 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

This is the second in a series that looks at how rookies produce versus others at their position. Every year, a quarterback or two, comes into the NFL with the expectations of making an impact right away. This rarely happens. I have charted the quarterback draft class of last six NFL Drafts. It will show Average Draft Position (ADP) and Positional Rank. Each of these is in comparison to other quarterbacks in those seasons. Only the players drafted in the NFL Draft, with a reasonable ADP were considered for the study. Also, if a player does not score a point, he is ranked the same as those others without a point. Even though a quarterback like Matt Moore came out of nowhere to play well last season, he was not a consideration for fantasy owners at draft time. Below is the data for all rookie quarterbacks in the data set:

I realize that many would have guessed that few quarterbacks have made a fantasy impact as a rookie. But, notice that NO rookie passer has finished as a QB1 for fantasy owners. Also, notice how few of these first year players outperformed their ADP. Most of those who did outplay their draft spot were not drafted in many redrafts. Most acquired Trent Edwards and Ben Roethlisberger off waivers, not through the draft. It is laughable now to look back at how JaMarcus Russell was drafted as a fantasy backup (QB2) last season. He finished as QB60. This is not uncommon. Most of these newcomers are drafted as fantasy QB2 or QB3. There were much better options when the rookies were drafted. Also, if we think about it, few of these were startable in those seasons, unless in a two-QB league.

So, does it matter if a rookie is drafted in the Top 10 of the NFL Draft? How about if he was drafted in the first round? First day? Here is the breakdown (with the ADP numbers on the left and finish on the right):

Not one group came close to their ADP. The Top 10 picks, the players that are supposedly more talented, fared worse those drafted later in the first round. The only Second Day quarterback with a reasonable ADP was Troy Smith in 2007. So, it is a small sample size. But, it is not as though a ton of fantasy owners drafted Smith as a QB4. Most fantasy teams do not use that many roster spots.

Why should I not want to rely on a rookie quarterback for my fantasy team? First of all, most quarterbacks that play quickly do so because the team is not very good and out of playoff contention early on. Plus, most teams will work the youngster in slowly so he is not overwhelmed. When was the last time a first year quarterback started from day one and succeeded? It has been a long while. Most now agree that the best way to handle a young passer is to let him sit and learn behind a veteran. This works well and is good for the NFL team. But, this is not great for fantasy owners. The quarterback position is one that is difficult to transition from the college level to the NFL. It takes time learning the nuances of the position. If we look at how each draft class has done as a whole, it is far from impressive:

So, what does this all mean? Since many rookie passers are drafted by bad teams that will be out of the playoff race by midseason, these quarterbacks have a chance to play later in the season. But, how many fantasy teams that are in the playoff race want to rely on a first year starter? I realize that injuries happen and sometimes there is no choice but to start a rookie passer on your fantasy team. It is something different entirely to waste a draft pick on a rookie who might not play until late in the season, if at all. Let's look at the 2008 rookie quarterbacks and their chances at producing fantasy numbers this season:

• Matt Ryan was the first quarterback taken in the 2008 NFL Draft. He is no lock to start early on. The Falcons have installed a run-oriented offense that should take the pressure off the Falcon passers. Presently, the former Boston College quarterback has an ADP of QB22 ahead of veterans Jon Kitna, Trent Edwards, and Jeff Garcia who all will start from day one and are startable fantasy options.


• Joe Flacco currently has an ADP of QB27. He is no lock to start half of the games, if any at all. Much will depend on how the team is playing. Troy Smith and Kyle Boller will battle to start at the beginning of the season. Presently, the rookie passer from Delaware is being drafted ahead of more proven quarterbacks like Alex Smith and Jeff Garcia, who offer more upside.


• Brian Brohm was a surprise pick by the Green Bay Packers. It was a good pick. The team needed insurance behind starter Aaron Rodgers after the retirement of Brett Favre. The Packers have a great receiving group and a very good offense. Presently, Brohm is being drafted as QB31. In the Packer offense, the upside is there if something happens to Rodgers. He is currently being drafted ahead of Warner and both Jet passers, Clemens and Pennington.


• Chad Henne will have a battle just to step on the field as a rookie. The first-year player from Michigan will need to pass John McCown and John Beck just to play. The one upside is that the Dolphins should be out of the playoff hunt early on and could see what they have in the rookie. The Dolphins do not have a good receiving corps. Currently, he has an ADP of QB32. Oddly, he is being drafted ahead of both McCown and Beck. Also, as a fantasy QB3, there are many others that offer more upside when playing and are in better situations.

The only rookie passer to consider drafting should be Brian Brohm. Why? Well, he is the only one of the four drafted by a team with a head coach not entering his first year. In addition, Coach McCarthy is known for having an effective passing game. The other three offenses of the rookies should be near the very bottom of the NFL. Atlanta, Miami, and Baltimore are all three going through a transition on offense. Given the injury history of Aaron Rodgers in college and so far in Green Bay, Brohm could play this season. The Packers have a good team, and an explosive offense. They should be the only team of the four with rookie passers to have something to play for when the weather turns cold. Brian Brohm is only worth a very late pick, or better yet a waiver pick up right before the start of the season. The only caveat is if reports start surfacing that Brohm is slow to pick up the offense or if Green Bay signs a veteran quarterback to be the primary backup.

It is advisable to let someone else draft a rookie passer considering the history of failure at the position.