Examining Rookie Performance - Intro

Posted 6/26 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Each and every year, rookies come into the NFL with high expectations. Fantasy owners remember the players from their collegiate days and want the newcomers on their team. They are just like a shiny penny. Many times these young players fail to exceed, or come close, to the anticipated level of production. After seeing this phenomena many times, I decided to look at the success rate of these newcomers. The results will surprise many. It is safer to avoid all rookies than to draft one with high expectations at any position. This is the start of a series of articles that will address how incoming players at each position fare in comparison to others at their position. The data used was from the 2002-2007 NFL Draft classes.

This study looks at how rookies drafted in different parts of the NFL Draft fared compared to their Average Draft Position (ADP). This data looked at players from the four skill positions: Quarterback, Running Back, Wide Receiver, and Tight End. In addition, it broke down rookies that were drafted in the Top 10, First Round, First Day, Second Day, and fantasy starter. Only players that were drafted in the NFL Draft were considered in the data. Also, only those with a reasonable ADP for fantasy teams were used. The use of reasonable ADP is necessary. There is no need to include players that are drafted as QB7 or RB10 given so many redraft leagues have just 16-20 roster spots. So, the pool of data was narrowed to only those drafted by a NFL team and drafted by fantasy owners. These are the players that would be available for fantasy owners to consider at the time of their drafts. One thing to note is that if a player was getting drafted by fantasy owners, then was injured in the offseason or preseason, his ADP is still used. The fantasy rank of a player with zero fantasy points is still used. The Footballguys.com positional rankings were used to measure the outcomes. The ADP was taken from MFL redraft leagues in order for the study to have the same parameters for each year.

I hope this all makes sense. If you get nothing else from this series, it would be good to know that no group (Top 10, 1st round, etc.) at any position has outperformed their ADP through the six years. For instance, running backs drafted in the Top 10 of the NFL Draft have an average ADP of RB24. The average finish of these backs is RB30. Yes, Adrian Peterson had a great season, finishing as the third-ranked fantasy running back. Yes, he far surpassed his ADP of RB25. But, imagine how poor the rushers in the previous five years fared if Peterson's huge season still led to the average resulting in the underperforming category. The top rated running back is usually drafted as a fantasy starter and is a risky proposition. With many leagues utilizing the flex position, I included three running backs and three receivers as fantasy starters. One other note: with the ADP data a moving target all offseason, I used data from the same time of each year.

Below are some interesting tidbits from the data (2002-2007):

The 2007 wide receiver draft class performed the worst versus their ADP than the previous five with an average ADP of WR50 and average finish of WR104. I know that sounds like the data is off, but we need to remember all of the receivers that disappointed. Dwayne Jarrett and Robert Meachem were drafted as fantasy WR4s and fell way short of expectations. In fact, Dwayne Bowe was the only wideout of the draft class to surpass his ADP. The thing about it is that it was a very highly touted class.

Only one rookie passer has ever finished in the top fifteen. That was Vince Young in 2006. Further, only Young, Leftwich, and Roethlisberger significantly outplayed their ADP. So, in six years, only three times has it paid off to draft a rookie passer in a redraft league.

Only one wide receiver has finished in the Top 10 their rookie season. That was Anquan Boldin in 2003. He finished the season as WR4 after having an ADP of WR88. Now, that is a bargain. The only other rookie pass catcher to finish in the Top 20 at the position was Michael Clayton in 2004. Think about all of the great receivers to be drafted in this time span. It speaks volumes about how difficult it really is for an incoming wideout to put up top numbers.

The receiver with the best rookie season has never been the one with the highest ADP. Think about that for a minute. What are the implications? We will explore this more in the wide receiver portion of the series.

There have only been three rookie running backs to finish as a Top 10 fantasy rusher in the last six years. Clinton Portis, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Adrian Peterson all accomplished the feat. To illustrate how rare of an achievement that is for a rookie back to succeed, there were ZERO rookies with a fantasy ADP to finish even in the Top 20 in 2003 AND in 2004. In 2005, Cadillac Williams was the highest ranked rookie at RB19. In 2002, Portis was the only rookie back to crack the Top 20. The last two years have been an aberration with a combined five rookies finishing in Top 20.

Randy McMichael and Jeremy Shockey are the only two tight ends to finish in the top ten at the position their rookie season. Both accomplished the feat in 2002.

Taking rookies in fantasy drafts is a risky proposition. Those drafted as fantasy starters disappoint on a regular basis. For example, let's think back to 2007. Calvin Johnson was and is a very good prospect. His future looks bright. But, he struggled as a rookie. The former Georgia Tech star was drafted as WR19 but finished as WR35. There were other very good options available at WR19 that finished as fantasy starters at the wide receiver position. The rest of the series will examine and explore the implications of taking a rookie for your fantasy team. It will look at where the player was drafted in the NFL, where the player was drafted in fantasy leagues, and how the player fared in his rookie season. All of this will be with the emphasis on the ramifications of drafting a 2008 for your fantasy team.