Receivers That Change Teams

  Posted 6/5 by Chris Smith, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Every new season, prominent receivers switch teams and the debate rages:

• "Can this receiver change squads and perform well with the new team in year one?"
• "Will a receiver who changes teams fail with his new club?"
• "How does this receiver do in years two, three and four with the new team?"

There aren't simple answers to these questions. For every receiver that goes on to do great things in his first season with his new organization, there is another that struggles to put up numbers. The one thing that appears to stand out looking at each player over the several years is that situation and surrounding talent have as much to do with his success as does his own personal skills. This article will look at each prominent receiver that has changed teams over the past several seasons and what they did in year one and beyond.

WRs 1st season data (2004 to 2007)

• 36 prominent receivers changed teams

In year one:

• 10 produced significantly better fantasy numbers (27.8%)
• 2 produced better fantasy numbers (05.6%)
• 6 produced similar fantasy numbers (16.7%)
• 8 produced worse fantasy numbers (22.2%)
• 10 produced significantly worse fantasy numbers 27.8%)

Thoughts:

• Half of all receivers put up worse fantasy numbers (that is difficult to ignore)
• A decent percentage significantly improved their fantasy status from the previous season.
• Five players finished in the top-ten in year one with new team with three additional players just missing out
  • Randy Moss, 2007
  • Wes Welker, 2007
  • Terrell Owens, 2006
  • Javon Walker, 2006
  • Santana Moss, 2006
  • Plaxico Burress, 2005 (11th)
  • Randy Moss, 2005 (15th)
  • Kevin Curtis, 2007 (17th)

Receivers on new teams - 2007 season

• Eleven prominent receivers changed teams last year

Of those players...

• 5 posted significantly better fantasy numbers
• 1 put up better fantasy numbers
• 0 put up similar numbers to the year prior
• 3 posted slightly worse numbers
• 2 posted much worse numbers

Randy Moss - New England Patriots (from Oakland Raiders):

What happened in 2007: Moss was re-energized with the Patriots last season, found great chemistry with QB Tom Brady and became part of one of the best passing offenses in the history of the NFL. He enjoyed his best ever fantasy season with 287 fantasy points, eclipsing his previous best mark by 20 points (2003 season).

Wes Welker - New England Patriots (from Miami Dolphins):

What happened in 2007: Welker was the 57th best fantasy receiver in 2006 with the Dolphins. He became a legitimate star in the Patriots offense however last season, catching 112 passes and finishing the season as the eighth best fantasy receiver.

Kevin Curtis - Philadelphia Eagles (from St. Louis Rams):

What happened in 2007: Curtis became to go-to receiver in Philadelphia and put up career-best receiving numbers. He was very inconsistent however through the season with 443 receiving yards and five of his six touchdowns coming in just three games.

Brandon Stokley - Denver Broncos (from Indianapolis Colts):

What happened in 2007: Stokley had a nice rebound season with the Broncos last year, putting up his best numbers since the 2004 season.

Donte Stallworth - New England Patriots (from Philadelphia):

What happened in 2007: Stallworth had a decent season with the Patriots but was the third or fourth option in most passing plays thanks to the play of Randy Moss and Wes Welker.

Dennis Northcutt - Jacksonville Jaguars (from Cleveland Browns):

What happened in 2007: Northcutt resurrected his career last season with the Jaguars, putting up decent numbers in a complimentary role in the offense.

Bobby Wade - Minnesota Vikings (from Tennessee Titans):

What happened in 2007: Bobby Wade did as well as could be expected in a terrible passing attack. Looking back at my 2007 projections on him, I had him slotted with 640 receiving yards and four touchdowns, so I would say he lived up to expectations within this offense.

Drew Bennett - St. Louis Rams (from Tennessee Titans):

What happened in 2007: Drew Bennett fought through injuries for most of the season and had a very quiet season.

Joe Horn - Atlanta Falcons (from New Orleans Saints):

What happened in 2007: Age caught up to Joe Horn in 2007, and he was an afterthought in a poor Falcons offense.

Ashley Lelie - San Francisco 49ers (from Atlanta Falcons):

What happened in 2007: Was a forgotten man in 2007.

Travis Taylor - Oakland / St. Louis (from Minnesota):

What happened in 2007: Was productive in 2006 but last year was a waste.

Receivers on new teams - 2006 season

• Twelve prominent receivers changed teams last year

Of those players...

• 2 posted significantly better fantasy numbers
• 3 put up similar numbers to the year prior
• 3 posted slightly worse numbers
• 4 posted much worse numbers

Terrell Owens - Dallas (from Philadelphia):

What happened in 2006: Owens put up great numbers in first season with Cowboys.
What happened in 2007: Owens continued to dominate.

Nate Burleson - Seattle (from Minnesota):

What happened in 2006: Didn't improve from disappointing 2005 campaign.
What happened in 2007: Burleson rebounded from subpar previous seasons with big 2007 season.

Keyshawn Johnson - Carolina (from Dallas):

What happened in 2006: Keyshawn put up ‘Keyshawn' numbers. Nothing flashy but dependable.
What happened in 2007: Retirement.

Antwaan Randle El - Washington (from Pittsburgh):

What happened in 2006: Randle El wasn't much of a threat in the passing game but did throw a few passes and carried the ball 19 times
What happened in 2007: Similar fantasy points to 2006 and 2005.

Eric Moulds - Tennessee (from Houston) (from Buffalo):

What happened in 2006: Moulds was clear second receiver on team but averaged less than 10 yards per reception with just a single touchdown scored. Moulds is currently unemployed.
What happened in 2007: Joined the Titans but had minimal impact.

Antonio Bryant - San Francisco (from Cleveland):

What happened in 2006: Bryant started quickly last season and then fell off the map. He wasn't retained by the 49ers and couldn't find employment in 2007.

Javon Walker - Denver (from Green Bay):

What happened in 2006: Had a great bounce back season with the Broncos.

David Givens - Tennessee (from New England):

What happened in 2006: Was injured during his stay with the Titans.

Receivers on new teams - 2005 season

• Eight prominent receivers changed teams last year

Of those eight players...

• 3 posted significantly better fantasy numbers
• 2 put up similar numbers to the year prior
• 1 posted slightly worse numbers
• 2 posted much worse numbers

Randy Moss - New England (from Oakland) (from Minnesota)

Derek Mason - Baltimore (from Tennessee)

Muhsin Muhammad - Chicago (from Carolina)

Santana Moss - Washington (from NY Jets)

Laveranues Coles - NY Jets (from Washington)

Plaxico Burress - NY Giants (from Pittsburgh)

Joe Jurevicius - Cleveland (from Seattle) (from Tampa Bay)

Notable free agent receivers from prior years

When comparing more than 2 seasons, each season is compared to the previous year.

Marty Booker - Miami (from Chicago)

Joey Galloway - Tampa Bay (from Dallas)

Keenan McCardell - Washington (from San Diego) (from Tampa Bay)

Peerless Price - Buffalo (from Dallas, Atlanta and Buffalo)

Terry Glenn - Dallas (from Green Bay)

Wide Receivers on New Teams in 2008 (11 prominent players)

Finally, you have made your way to the best receivers that changed teams in 2008. Looking at the above information, there is no rhyme or reason to how these players will do in year one with their new teams. Here are some trends I noticed over the past few seasons however...

• When healthy, elite receivers thrive on new teams with good offenses
• Opportunity brings success
• Receivers that haven't put up good numbers in one city, rarely go on to do so elsewhere
• Veteran receivers who have put up big numbers in the past have a very good chance of doing so again if they can stay healthy

Javon Walker - Oakland Raiders (from Denver Broncos)

Best season: 210 fantasy points (2004 season - Green Bay Packers)

Walker has been a yo-yo over the past several years, putting up big numbers in one season only to succumb to injury woes in the next. He is expected to slot in as the top receiver in Oakland and will team with second year QB JaMarcus Russell to hopefully improve the Raiders dreadful passing attack. When healthy, Walker has the talent to be a top-ten fantasy receiver, but just be aware that he has some injury risk. He has a good shot at hitting the 1,000 yard mark this season but could struggle to find the endzone thanks to inexperienced quarterback play.

Bernard Berrian - Minnesota Vikings (from Chicago Bears)

Best season: 125 fantasy points (2007 season - Bears)

Berrian has had two good seasons in a row with the Bears before moving onto the Vikings. He has the skills to be a good No. 1 receiver but is moving onto a team that was dreadful in passing last year. If the Vikings can find a passing game, Berrian has the skills to put up numbers similar to last season, but that would be his ceiling in Minnesota. I expect his numbers to drop slightly due to the situation.

Donte Stallworth - Cleveland Browns (from New England Patriots)

Best season: 137 fantasy points (2005 season - Saints)

Stallworth has just one top-20 season during his six-year career and he is unlikely to hit that mark in Cleveland where he'll be at best the third option in the passing game. He has great speed but has never really hit his stride in the NFL. He should put up similar numbers to 2006 and 2007 if he succeeds in winning the WR2 position with the Browns.

Isaac Bruce - San Francisco 49ers (from St. Louis Rams)

Best season: 258 fantasy points (1995 season - Rams)

Bruce has had a long and illustrious career, but it is coming to an end. He has failed to reach 750 receiving yards in two of the last three seasons and is moving to a team that has struggled to pass the ball. His ceiling is his 2007 stats of 733 yards and four touchdowns. He very well may finish lower than that, and I don't have much confidence in him this season.

Bryant Johnson - San Francisco 49ers (from Arizona Cardinals)

Best season: 98 fantasy points (2006 season - Cardinals)

Johnson has never finished higher than 40th in regards to fantasy points at the receiver position, but he has shown flashes of brilliance over his five-year career. I believe he will start this season and should put up his best numbers as a pro. The problem is the 49ers have struggled to pass the ball, and that will likely keep Johnson from approaching the 1,000 yard mark in 2008. He could put up decent stats but his upside is limited, and he could ultimately be one of those players that look interesting until expected to contribute as a starter.

Ernest Wilford - Miami Dolphins (from Jacksonville Jaguars)

Best season: 110 fantasy points (2005 season - Jaguars)

Wilford is another player that has flashed moments of brilliance in the NFL but has not exhibited the consistency needed of a starting player. He is moving to the Dolphins that have a lot of questions on offense, and it is still unclear whether he will start for the team or come in off the bench. He has the talent to put up similar numbers to his best season in 2005, but that is his upside and could finish much lower.

Jerry Porter - Jacksonville Jaguars (from Oakland Raiders)

Best season: 153 fantasy points (2004 season - Raiders)

Porter is entering his ninth season in the NFL and has never finished inside the top-20. He is going to a team that has a run-first mentality, and he isn't likely to exceed his 2007 totals of 705 receiving yards and six touchdowns. Surprisingly, Porter has never had a 1,000 yard receiving season in the NFL, and he won't get there in 2008. He will likely have some fantasy value as the first or second backup off the bench, but don't expect much more than that.

Darrell Jackson - Denver Broncos (from San Francisco 49ers)

Best season: 168 fantasy points (2003 season - Seahawks)

In 2006, Jackson was the 13th best fantasy receiver, and he had three top-fifteen seasons in four years. The 49ers expected him to slot in as a legitimate No. 1 receiver for them in 2007, but it simply wasn't meant to be. Now Jackson is going to Denver where he will not have the pressure he experienced in San Francisco and could rebound with a nice season. Brandon Marshall is the clear No. 1 receiver in Denver and will garner the opposing defense's attention. That could bode well for Jackson in his new role.

Marty Booker - Chicago Bears (from Miami Dolphins)

Best season: 163 fantasy points (2002 season - Bears)

Booker has not finished higher than 33rd at the WR position over the past five seasons and appears to have lost a step or two he couldn't afford to lose. The Bears are grasping at straws with the pickup of Booker, who is unlikely to return to his previous ways with the Bears. He has been consistently average over the past five years (556, 638, 686, 715 and 747 receiving yards) with just 15 touchdowns, and his 2008 statistics will likely fall within that range as well.

D.J. Hackett - Carolina Panthers (from Seattle Seahawks)

Best season: 85 fantasy points (2006 season - Seahawks)

Hackett was a much-hyped player going into the 2007 season, but he struggled with injuries and never really got on track. Now he's off to Carolina where he will be playing second fiddle to star WR Steve Smith, a role that should suit him well. In a four-week stretch last season after returning from injury (Weeks 9 through 12), Hackett caught 27 passes and scored three times. That is a glimpse at what he is capable of when healthy. I believe he will slot into a 650-yard / five-touchdown type of role with the club.

Muhsin Muhammad - Carolina Panthers (from Chicago Bears)

Best season: 238 fantasy points (2004 season - Panthers)

Muhammad had a monster 2004 season with the Panthers, catching 16 touchdown passes. However that season was an aberration as the six seasons before and after that one saw him catch a total of 19 touchdowns. He is a solid veteran receiver that will slot into a WR2 or WR3 role with the Panthers and help to improve their passing attack. However he will be sharing targets with both Steve Smith and D.J. Hackett which makes it unlikely he'll improve on his stats from the past few seasons.

Worth a mention

• Troy Williamson, Jacksonville (from Minnesota): Loads of talent but was given up on for a reason.
• Keary Colbert, Denver (from Carolina): Had an excellent rookie season in 2004 then fell off the map. He may surprise in Denver in a WR3 role.
• Devard Darling, Kansas City (from Baltimore): Excellent talent but never developed in Baltimore. He will be given a chance in Kansas City.
• Samie Parker, Denver (from Kansas City): Miscast as a starting receiver in Kansas City as he is better suited as a depth player.
• Doug Gabriel, Cincinnati (from Oakland): Has shown occasional flashes but has fought injuries. He could emerge as a sleeper in Cincinnati.