Fantasy Roundtable - Preseason Edition
Posted 5/25 by Staff, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Feel free to eavesdrop as various staff members share their views on a range of topics in discussion format. This week, they touch on the following:
- Offensive Turnarounds?
- Bengals Offense
- A Few Young QBs
- Offensive Free Agents
- Teams with Rookie RBs
- Falcons Offense
- 2008 Draft
Offensive Turnarounds?
Among the Jets, Dolphins, Panthers, Rams, Bills, Chiefs, Falcons, and 49ers, which one or two teams have the best chance to enjoy an immediate turnaround and offensive success in 2007?
MAURILE TREMBLAY: I like the Rams. They just need to stay healthy. Last year Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson missed significant time, Torry Holt's knee gave him trouble, and the entire offensive line was shuffled and reshuffled all season long due to injuries. (Orlando Pace missed practically the whole season.)
With all those guys back healthy in 2008, they've got pretty good potential to be a very productive offense.
ANTHONY BORBELY: I'll go with the Panthers. After an injury-plagued 2007 season, QB Jake Delhomme is healthy and expected to be ready for camp. They addressed the offensive line in the first round, selecting offensive tackle Jeff Otah. The Panthers also added some playmakers. They drafted RB Jonathan Stewart with the 13th overall pick to give them the bruising RB that they have lacked since the Stephen Davis days. They also signed WRs D.J. Hackett and Muhsin Muhammad.
The 49ers are another team to watch. They brought in offensive guru Mike Martz, and where Martz goes, big fantasy numbers follow. He has turned unheralded QBs like Kurt Warner, Marc Bulger, and Jon Kitna into fantasy studs. Now he will focus his attention on Alex Smith, who has been a disappointment since being draft first overall by the 49ers in 2005. Martz has never led an offense that had fewer than 4200 passing yards, so should Smith win the starting job, he could have great value. I believe he will. Frank Gore will have a big year as Martz will get him heavily involved in the passing game.
JEFF PASQUINO: Tony hit the nail on the head with both of his choices. I like the Panthers and the 49ers as well.
The Panthers have had a great offseason: they got Jake Delhomme back, reacquired Muhsin Muhammad, snagged D.J. Hackett on the cheap, and then during the draft went on to add a good offensive lineman (Otah) and one of the best rookie RBs available in Jonathan Stewart. Carolina struggled greatly without Delhomme and without a solid #2 WR, so getting both positions solidified helps a great deal. Adding Stewart to DeAngelo Williams makes for a nice committee approach, and along with a good TE in Jeff King the offense should be much better.
The 49ers will also be quite the team to watch as Mike Martz gets hold of those skill players. Frank Gore, Alex Smith (or Shaun Hill), and Isaac Bruce should all shine. Bryant Johnson will be a solid #2 WR, while Arnaz Battle has "Shaun McDonald 2008" written all over him. If Vernon Davis was ever meant to shine, it is right now. Also helping things is the improvements at LB and DB for the defense and the weaker opponents in the NFC West. Only Seattle has a formidable pass defense, as Arizona is a middle of the pack and the Rams remain suspect.
CECIL LAMMEY: The Bills and 49ers are the teams to watch here.
In Buffalo, Trent Edwards will take over as the starting QB in what could be a very high powered offense. The plan is to use more three-step drops, which means getting the ball in the hands of the receivers quickly. Edwards can make quick decisions, and more of Lee Evans is always a good thing. The Bills addressed their WR2 position and drafted James Hardy and Stevie Johnson. Hardy needs to stay out of trouble, and Stevie just needs a chance. Evans will see fewer double teams because of the improved passing game, and thus his production should increase. Marshawn Lynch proved that he is a fantastic runner, but we know from his days at Cal that he is an awesome receiver as well. Should the Bills use "the Beast" more as a receiver that will make their passing attack even more lethal.
With the 49ers, Mike Martz is the reason for excitement. Martz will improve any receiving corps, and the combination of Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson will help whoever wins that QB job. Another big part of that offense will be a rejuvenated Frank Gore. Martz will make the most out of Gore's potential. If Alex Smith, Shaun Hill, or J.T. O'Sullivan just run the offense efficiently, this team has enough weapons to really put up some big numbers. Vernon Davis also wants to avoid any "bust" labels, so expect him to put up the best numbers of his career.
MARK WIMER: I am with Tony and Jeff on the Panthers. They have reloaded the WR stable by adding Hackett and reacquiring Muhammad; both moves I think are going to improve the overall passing picture for Delhomme. Delhomme's recovery from Tommy John surgery is going very well indeed, so it looks like the team will be able to get the ball to Smith, Muhammad, King and Hackett.
Along with drafting Stewart and Otah, the team has also bolstered its OL depth with some intriguing wide-body, power-blocking types like Toniu Fonoti (who could be a great pickup if he can get back to his "A" game with his new team). If the shift back to a power-running based attack works out, Carolina should keep enough defenders near the line of scrimmage that it'll be relatively easy for Delhomme to hook up with the receivers. I like the direction Carolina has headed entering 2008.
The Jets are another team on the rise, in my opinion. Thomas Jones had a fantasy season from the nether regions last year, due to his paltry 2 TDs (1 rushing, 1 receiving), but he's a solid, workhorse type back who should vastly improve in his second year in the offense. The blocking should be improved with the team's makeover of the OL, too (two new starters signed Alan Faneca and Damien Woody), so the scoring on Jones' part should get much better. The addition of FB Tony Richardson to the team is also a huge boost to Jones' prospects, obviously, as Richardson is one of the premier lead-blockers in the NFL. Hopefully, Kellen Clemens can cement his hold on the top QB job early in training camp and forge a strong rapport with Coles, Cotchery and whichever guy out of Chris Baker/Dustin Keller that ends up being the pass-catching TE.
JEFF TEFERTILLER: As someone still unsure about whether Delhomme can be back at full strength and stay healthy all season, I will go with St. Louis and San Francisco.
The Rams did lose Isaac Bruce, but get a good offensive coordinator in Al Saunders. Saunders is an upgrade. With Bulger and Steven Jackson now healthy, the Rams will bounce back. Rookie receivers Avery and Burton will add some speed and explosion to the offense. The status of Pace could be a factor going forward.
San Francisco did acquire Bryant Johnson and Isaac Bruce. It is not a coincidence that Bruce is reunited with former offensive coordinator, Mike Martz. The veteran receiver should be a sleeper for many in 2008. The health of Gore will be a huge factor for the 49ers. Also, signing Foster to backup Gore was a good move.
MARC LEVIN: I agree with the majority view regarding the Panthers being the most likely to have an offensive turnaround. Jake Delhomme is a great QB, Steve Smith is a great WR, DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart are a great young tandem in the backfield, they drafted well when they selected Jeff Otah, and there are wonderful complementary pieces with Hackett and Muhammad. While they may not score the most points in the league, I believe they have a strong likelihood of developing offensive consistency. Some may worry about Delhomme's recovery -- don't. First of all, he will be fine. Second, the team blossomed with Moore leading them. The Panthers will be fine at QB. The team gets to face the Saints twice and the Falcons twice. Historically, NFC South games have featured defense. Not anymore.
I will agree with Maurile and Jeff T. that the next most likely team to have an offensive turnaround is the Rams. Bulger, Holt, and Steven Jackson will all rely on a healthy Orlando Pace. But, those three players can put up elite fantasy numbers - and can spark a serious offensive explosion for the Rams.
Finally, I do like the 49ers as well. Between Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, Isaac Bruce, Mike Martz, and the right division for offensive showdowns, the elements are there. They just need Alex Smith to finally blossom. Smith is the key to whether that team can turn it around this year.
As much as I love my cursed Dolphins, they won't have an offensive turnaround this year. Defensively, they will surprise everyone. But, offensively, they will remain, well, offensive.
Bengals Offense
Since their stellar 2005 season when the Bengals' offense carried the team to an impressive 11-5 record (and their first playoff appearance in well over a decade), they've kind of been in a backslide, scoring fewer points and gaining fewer yards in each successive season.
They face a number of questions heading into 2008.
First of all, what will happen with the RB situation? Will Rudi Johnson come back strong, or will he end up sharing the load with (or possibly giving way to) Kenny Watson, Chris Perry, or Kenny Irons? (Throw in DeDe Dorsey if you like.)
JENE BRAMEL: When everyone has been healthy -- a rare occurrence over the past two seasons -- the Bengal gameplan has been to pound Johnson behind the big offensive line and use Perry/Watson/Dorsey as a third down back option. I think that's still the gameplan if the offense returns to 2005 form and Johnson is healthy. The rub here is going to be the play of center Eric Ghiaciuc, who has struggled with injury and inconsistent play over the past two years. If the line can't open holes between the tackles or the team falls behind frequently again this year, Johnson's splits will again suffer.
JEFF PASQUINO: Rudi Johnson will be back, and actually should perform better than most people expect. The difference will be the improvements of not just Rudi's health and the offensive line, but also the TE position. The addition of Ben Utecht from Indy is one of the most underrated and overlooked offseason acquisitions. Adding him to not just block but also to open up the middle of the field will force the LBs and the safeties to respect the middle third of the field. That should open up some lanes for Rudi and his understudy. Now, as for who that will be, the sexy pick right now is Chris Perry. For some reason he's getting a lot of love in the press right now, but did Kenny Watson fall off of the planet in the past four months? He stepped in and performed better than adequately so I would say that he deserves some of the workload. Watson should take some of the burden away from Rudi and be the solid #2 option for the Bengals this season.
CECIL LAMMEY: Rudi Johnson can still be the man in that offense. If he is fully healthy, I see no reason why Rudi can't duplicate his numbers from just a couple of years ago. He will be the primary ball carrier, and only be spelled by Chris Perry on occasion. Perry looks like he may actually be healthy for the first time since he's been in the NFL. We've seen that Perry can be an effective receiver out of the backfield, and the Bengals expect to use him in that capacity. He will help keep Rudi Johnson fresh, but don't expect him to get more than 100 carries. Unfortunately, Kenny Irons' career is headed the way of Ki-Jana Carter more than Corey Dillon. He could start the season on the PUP list, and who knows if he'll even see active duty in 2008. It could be 2009 before we see what Irons can do in the NFL.
ANTHONY BORBELY: I agree with Jene, Jeff, and Cecil that Rudi is the unquestioned starter heading into the season, but he did not play well last year even before getting hurt. As of now, I would not want to count on him as my RB2. Perry is finally healthy and he should be a big part of the offense. He is a great receiver out of the backfield. Talent has never been his issue with him. Watson has proven to be a solid NFL player, but he may be the odd man out barring injury to Rudi or Perry. Irons appears headed to PUP.
MAURILE TREMBLAY: I'm with Tony in not wanting to have to count on Rudi Johnson as a fantasy starter. The Bengals' backfield is loaded with talent, and with Kenny Watson, Chris Perry, and DeDe Dorsey all expected to be worked into the offense, Johnson isn't going to get anywhere near the workload he did in 2004-2006. Watson and Dorsey could each get a series or two per game in relief of Johnson, and Perry will likely be the primary back in passing situations. If Johnson had been more effective last year before getting injured I'd change my tune. But it looks to me like he's past his prime and he'll have a hard time keeping the other RBs off the field.
What will happen with the WR situation? When (or possibly if) Chad Johnson reports to the team, will he stay focused on performing well, or will he become a distraction to himself and others?
JENE BRAMEL: Johnson will play for the Bengals. He needs the money, isn't the type to sit on game days and won't be traded. He'd like nothing more than to stick it in everyone's face -- witness his comment that he'll be at camp to prove that there isn't a player in this league that can cover him. He's sure to be a distraction, however, unless he's playing well and the team is winning.
JEFF PASQUINO: Chad's no dummy. The answer to the infamous question of "Where you at, 85?" will be in camp as soon as he stands to lose a game check. Johnson will tuck his tail between his legs, report, and try and show off to land a good deal going forward. The unfortunate circumstance for him is that he's signed through 2011 and at a reasonable price ($6M in 2011). There's little reason for the Bengals to trade him.
CECIL LAMMEY: The WR situation is up in the air right now with Chad Johnson and the Bengals' brass playing a game of chicken. Chad Johnson is a distraction - period. No matter what, the media will be digging and digging for a sound bite from him. I used to think that CJ's antics were innocent, and that people just didn't "get" him. He has proven to me over the past year that he is just another typical prima donna WR. Chris Henry is finally gone, and good riddance. Chad Johnson needs to be next in line.
ANTHONY BORBELY: I expect Chad to show up and put up the same solid numbers as before. His ego is too big for anything else to happen. I feel he is drastically undervalued because of the talk of holding out. He isn't going anywhere and he probably knows it.
Can any of the team's unproven receivers -- Antonio Chatman, Glenn Holt, Jerome Simpson, Andre Caldwell -- step in and play a significant role in the offense, replacing Chris Henry?
CECIL LAMMEY: I think both of the rookies, Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell, will make an impact. I see Caldwell as being the better long term WR because of his route running ability and toughness. That's not to say that Simpson won't be very good. His size and hands will mean instant red zone target. He's more raw than Caldwell, and thus could take more time to develop into a serious playmaker.
JEFF PASQUINO: I agree with Cecil that Caldwell appears more poised to contribute in 2008 than Simpson, although I would not doubt that both rookies could have their moments. Both should be locks to make the team. Antonio Chatman and Glenn Holt should stick around as depth (also don't forget that Doug Gabriel is also in the mix), especially with Chatman's punt return experience. Receivers #4 and #5 have to contribute on special teams, so Chatman's a good bet to stick.
JENE BRAMEL: I'll go the other way on this. I think Simpson looks to have the best chance of stepping up and contributing this season. It'll be a surprise, though, if he is able to replace what Henry brought on deep routes and in the red zone.
Carson Palmer threw more interceptions and fewer touchdowns in 2007 than he had in either of the two previous seasons. Does he shoulder any of the blame for the team's struggles last year, or were they due mostly to factors beyond his control? What's his fantasy outlook for 2008?
JENE BRAMEL: Palmer is certainly to blame for some of the team's struggles. A number of times he made a conscious decision to force the ball to T.J. Houshmandzadeh despite double and triple coverage, probably feeling that Housh was the only receiver he could trust to run the right route and hold onto the ball. Many of those INTs (and near misses) occurred when Palmer was throwing the ball away to avoid sacks. (Palmer was a big reason that the team's sack allowed total dropped from 36 to 17 last season.) Palmer's TD production suffered without a consistent red zone option and frequently stalled drives due to the lack of a running game. If any one of those issues improves in 2008, Palmer's production will increase. The outlook, for now, looks good. The offensive line looks healthier than it has been at any point in the past two seasons, which should help Rudi. The young WRs and free agent acquisition Ben Utecht could provide more consistent red zone production. And the defense looks like it should be improved. Palmer, in his worst seasons, has been a top ten performer. His ceiling is likely top three. He should remain an excellent risk-reward pick this year.
JEFF PASQUINO: One of the factors last season was the unavailability of Chris Henry and also Rudi Johnson for the better part of the year. In addition, several games were marred by horrific performances by both Chad Johnson and Houshmandzadeh, who seemed to lose their focus and concentration and drop several balls on more than one occasion. Which of the many factors contributed the most is debatable, but the answer was clear - they all added up to a bad season for Palmer.
Carson should do better this year. Henry is gone, but two new receivers are added to the mix - along with the underrated TE improvement of Ben Utecht. Again, I see Utecht as one of the most significant free agent signings that no one is acknowledging. For years, Palmer had not had a real TE to throw the ball to over the middle, and now he does. That has to help matters in the passing game. Look for Utecht to see a great deal of targets in the passing game and for Palmer to throw 20+ touchdowns yet again. The Bengals face one of the toughest schedules in 2008 and while their defense is improving, it is still well in the bottom third of the NFL. Giving up 20+ points most weeks will force Palmer to throw early and often, so his yardage numbers could approach 4,000 yards again this year.
CECIL LAMMEY: I share Jene's and Jeff's optimism. Carson Palmer should once again be among the top QBs in fantasy football. Last season he deserves the benefit of the doubt because so many things were working against him. Palmer has the work ethic and desire to maintain his elite level of play.
ANTHONY BORBELY: I agree with everyone else. I think Palmer will rebound and have a huge season.
MARK WIMER: The other guys have covered most of the items I would have pointed to, but I'll add a note about the Bengals' team in general. One development I find significant is the release of LB Odell Thurman. This, coupled with the departure of Chris Henry, should help the team distance itself from a lot of off-field distractions and concentrate on playing football. Hopefully, the team will not suffer further stains on their already-checkered reputation. A cessation (or at least, easing) of off-field controversy during 2008 would be a boon to coaches and players alike.
A Few Young QBs
Trent Edwards, Aaron Rodgers, JaMarcus Russell, Kellen Clemens, and Brodie Croyle could all see their first opening-day starts this season. Which of those five do you think has the best potential to put up decent numbers in 2007?
JEFF PASQUINO: If I were to rank them, it would be Rodgers then Edwards, then a gap, and then Clemens (assuming he starts) with Russell. Croyle would be the distant fifth option here.
Rodgers has a ton of weapons and he's not a rookie. He has years of experience - just not game experience. Learning from some of the best coaches in the game and one of the best QBs ever to play gives Rodgers a big leg up. Add in Donald Driver, Donald Lee, Greg Jennings and James Jones - suddenly Rodgers has plenty of targets and places to put the ball into capable hands.
Helping Rodgers are three other factors. First, his offensive line - they are pretty good, and they should keep him upright most of the time. Couple this with Rodgers' running ability and mobility gives him more production options. The second point is the defense, which is also pretty good. Turnovers and short fields are an offense's best friend. Lastly, do not ignore the effect of a good rusher and receiver in the backfield. Ryan Grant could get 750 or more yards on screen passes and short tosses to the flat, which again boosts Rodgers' numbers. Several QBs have had this nice boost effect from good receiving backs - just ask Drew Brees.
Trent Edwards is second, but not far behind. For some of the same reasons as with Rodgers, Edwards has a pretty good environment. Now, it isn't as prolific an offense or stellar a defense as with Green Bay, but Buffalo is better than some spots. Edwards should push for a Top 20 QB spot this season.
Russell is a wild-card He can run and has a big arm, and the Raiders love to throw the ball up for grabs, so who knows how Russell will do. Clemens - if he is the starter - has great targets with Coles and Cotchery. The Jets also apparently have the largest collection of tight ends in the free world, so that should help a little. With just the two good receivers here and the ability for both to pick up good yards after the catch, Clemens is a decent backup QB option in a 12-team fantasy league.
Which leaves Croyle. Which fantasy owners should do as well. Leave him.
ANTHONY BORBELY: I agree with Jeff that Rodgers has the most value this season, and it's not close in my opinion. He steps into a situation where he has a lot of weapons and a solid line to protect him. That is the difference between Rodgers and the other QBs listed. He was very impressive in limited time last year.
MAURILE TREMBLAY: Jeff and Tony are right. Rodgers steps into an offense that was very productive last year, and he looked good in the few snaps he took in 2007. With Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and James Jones at WR, he's got better targets than the other guys. (Actually, Clemens has some good WRs as well, but the Jets' offense in general will likely struggle more, and Clemens may not even start.)
CECIL LAMMEY: Rodgers does have the most potential here, although one shouldn't overlook Trent Edwards.
The quick strike offense that Buffalo will run puts the ball in the hands of the playmakers more quickly. This means more Lee Evans, more Marshawn Lynch. If he stays healthy Edwards could finish the season as a top 20 fantasy QB.
MARK WIMER: Rodgers is the player I would select out of the list, too. There is a plethora of quality targets in Green Bay, and their RB stable is similarly stacked with Ryan Grant, Brandon Jackson, and DeShawn Wynn (and Vernand Morency if he stays with the team). With a strong running game to take the pressure off of Rodgers' shoulders, he should be able to utilize the numerous threats available in the passing game.
Another reason I like Rodgers' chances is the three-year apprenticeship he's served. Even if Favre wasn't a player-coach, simply observing Favre play well and poorly, in good times and bad times, has been a valuable experience for Rodgers. He's seen all the divisional rivals at the field level for three seasons now, and should have a solid fundamental understanding that will allow him to transition into the top job successfully.
JEFF TEFERTILLER: I have to join the consensus. I have Rodgers miles ahead of the rest. He is in the best situation to succeed. It will be years before Russell or Edwards can be viable fantasy starting quarterbacks. Rodgers is the only passer that can be an every-week fantasy starter. Croyle is horrible. His erratic throws and poor decisions will eliminate any hope before the first frost of the year. Clemens has the arm strength, but the jury is still out on whether he can win the starting job over Chad Pennington. The Jets want Clemens to win the job, but he has yet to do so.
As for other young passers, I expect Brady Quinn and Alex Smith to be viable long before Russell or Edwards.
Who has the most long-term potential?
CECIL LAMMEY: Long term potential goes to JaMarcus Russell. JR is physically one of the most gifted QBs in the league. He has some playmakers around him, but will Al Davis let this team flourish? Only time will tell.
ANTHONY BORBELY: I think it's is a virtual toss-up between Rodgers and Russell, with Russell getting the edge on the basis of a significant different in talent. The only negative about Russell is that it will likely take him longer to develop, and he does not have the surrounding cast that Rodgers does, but I believe he will eventually be better.
JEFF PASQUINO: Russell's potential is much better in the long term than in the short term. Edwards, too, could improve in coming years along with the offense in Buffalo. The best prospect is likely still Rodgers, but if Russell can show he was worthy of a top draft pick then he may be the best of this lot.
MARC LEVIN: I like JaMarcus Russell's natural talent, but I don't think he has the pieces around him on offense to be any better than Tarvaris Jackson was last year - and that assumes McFadden plays like Adrian Peterson. I simply don't believe in Javon Walker any more, and Ronald Curry's and the OL's ability to play at an adequate NFL level are unanswered questions.
MAURILE TREMBLAY: JaMarcus Russell has the best physical skills, but to echo Marc's thought, his WRs in Oakland aren't as good as they were at LSU. I'll probably give my vote to Aaron Rodgers here, although he probably has less job security than most of the others on the list (long term).
MARK WIMER: I disagree with Maurile about Rodgers' long-term job security. The Packers have always kept solid backups on the roster. (Over the years, guys like Matt Hasselbeck held the clipboard for Favre but never challenged for playing time). They simply believe in keeping the QB cupboard stocked, but then trade the backup after a couple or three years and develop another youngster. So Brohm doesn't worry me (unless Rodgers goes down in flames, but I don't see that happening).
Offensive Free Agents - Impact on New Teams?
Which free agents who switched teams are most likely to have an impact this year on offense? (Michael Turner is a big one, but we'll discuss the Falcons in a separate question, so let's save our thoughts on him until then.)
MAURILE TREMBLAY: Does Alan Faneca count? He and Tony Richardson will help Thomas Jones quite a bit.
JEFF PASQUINO: I agree - don't overlook what Tony Richardson can mean to a team's running game. Wherever he has been, Richardson has been a crushing lead blocker for his tailback. I expect a much bigger year out of Thomas Jones due solely to Richardson if nothing else.
MARK WIMER: Jeff hits the mark on Thomas Jones as not only has his OL improved through free agency, but also the signing of Tony Richardson as both Jeff and Maurile mentioned. Jones is vastly underrated in fantasy circles due to the dreadful 2 TD season last year. That should change for the better this year. So free agency action at OL and FB greatly improved Jones as a fantasy prospect in my view.
MAURILE TREMBLAY: Alge Crumpler may have the biggest fantasy impact of any free agent this year. He's an athletic tight end with good speed and hands, and the Titans' WR corps is pretty thin, so Crumpler could become Vince Young's go-to target, particularly around the goal line.
MARK WIMER: I am a believer in Alge Crumpler at TE in Tennessee as Vince Young is a young QB in the mold of the disgraced Vick, and Crumpler perfected his skills as safety-valve receiver/security blanket with Vick in Atlanta. With Young very much in need of a go-to guy (and zip, zero, zilch, nada to fill the gap at the WR position, in my opinion) Crumpler could be a monster in Tennessee. He's on my short list of TEs for TE-required leagues this year.
MARC LEVIN: Yes, Alge Crumpler is the first player who came to mind as soon as I heard this question. Given his consistent top-5 fantasy TE numbers before Vick went bye-bye, Crumpler is a guy I plan to target in my fantasy drafts.
MAURILE TREMBLAY: Do any of you guys think Javon Walker will have a big season this year? I think he'll be in a tough spot. When's the last time a Raider WR had a good fantasy season? Jerry Rice? I'm not at all sold on JaMarcus Russell's ability to step in and put up big numbers in his first year as a starter, and Walker is still trying to come back from a knee injury.
MARK WIMER: Yes, I think the Raiders overpaid for Walker. I think he's pulling an "Antonio Freeman" - getting his big paycheck and then fading away to obscurity. For this reason, Drew Carter looks like a solid flyer pick to me, although he hasn't proven himself as an every-game receiver at this level yet. But if he fizzles, nobody is going to remember you selected Carter in the 15th or 16th round of the draft, so what is there to lose?
JEFF PASQUINO: Good call on Drew Carter, Mark. As Javon Walker gets too much attention (and money) in Oakland, Carter is a nice sleeper WR to mention. Carter has been outshining Walker in OTAs, and could be in line for a heavy workload with the Raiders this season.
MAURILE TREMBLAY: Another somewhat high-profile WR to change teams this season is Bernard Berrian, who heads from Chicago to Minnesota. I don't know if his individual value will change much. He goes from one of the worst passing offenses in the league to one of the other worst passing offenses in the league. It will give Tarvaris Jackson a better overall set of receivers to throw to (combined with the maturation of Sidney Rice), but I don't think the impact will be major.
JEFF PASQUINO: The 49ers have a new pair of starting WRs in Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson. Mike Martz is in San Fran, and whether it is Alex Smith or Shaun Hill, they will be throwing early and often. Johnson is particularly intriguing; he was always a nice sleeper WR3 behind Boldin and Fitzgerald when he was a Cardinal, but now he will be a starter opposite of Bruce and should see 100+ targets.
MAURILE TREMBLAY: Isaac Bruce going to San Francisco may be similar to when Curtis Conway went there a few years ago. Although he'll be listed as a starter heading into camp, the team may try to get its younger players as much playing time as possible, possibly at Bruce's expense.
JEFF PASQUINO: Other intriguing WRs include some lesser names like Marty Booker (CHI) and Jerry Porter (JAX), who have left their old teams but are still viewed as starters in their new homes. While we all rave about D.J. Hackett's ability, Muhsin Muhammad goes back home to Carolina and may be starting opposite Steve Smith and catching balls from Jake Delhomme once again. While not a lesser name but certainly regarded now as a castaway, Darrell Jackson could be starting in Denver this year. If Brandon Marshall has any type of setback, Jackson could be poised for a return to the 1,000 yard mark.
MAURILE TREMBLAY: I guess we should mention Donte Stallworth as well. He should start in Cleveland, but he'll play third fiddle behind Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow.
At running back, Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett could make an impact in Seattle (Jones more than Duckett, of course). But I don't think Jones will necessarily have much more value in Seattle than he did in Dallas. As part of a committee, he won't be a fantasy starter.
JEFF PASQUINO: One of the names to really catch my eye at the TE position is Ben Utecht in Cincinnati. He becomes the #3 target in that offense. Carson Palmer finally gets a big target who can go over the middle and get 10 yards when he needs them. With no Chris Henry and possibly a Chad Johnson holdout, Utecht could have a very nice season.
MARK WIMER: Like Jeff, I like Utecht's potential in Cincy. Palmer hasn't had a go-to guy at TE and given the acrimony between Chad Johnson and the team, Palmer may be looking elsewhere with the ball during OTAs (and perhaps even training camp). Habits established in preseason can bleed over into regular season, which could make Utecht a strong fantasy play in Cincy. I'm not sold on Utecht yet, but he's a guy who could rocket up my TE board during late July/August this year.
JEFF PASQUINO: The other tight end to watch is Anthony Fasano in Miami. Another Bill Parcells guy, Fasano comes in and is quite likely to pass David Martin for the starting role. While some bigger names like Alge Crumpler may steal headlines, Fasano (although not a free agent technically, but he did switch teams via trade) could be a nice sleeper TE this year.
MARC LEVIN: YES! Thank you, Jeff. I believe Fasano will have quite a nice season this year, and will do wonders to help both protect those young QBs in Miami and open running lanes for Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams.
Teams with Rookie RBs
Oakland, Carolina, Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Detroit will feature training camp battles in which rookie RBs will compete to start. How do you see each of the following battles playing out? Any good fantasy value here (vets or rookies)?
Justin Fargas versus Darren McFadden (and possibly
Michael Bush)?
ANTHONY BORBELY: I think Oakland will be a full blown RBBC with Bush being the third RB. I think they will use McFadden similar to how the Saints used Reggie Bush, with fewer touches.
JEFF PASQUINO: I'll make a different comparison. Fargas will be the Chester Taylor of 2007. He will start out fine, but McFadden owners will be chomping at the bit for him to get out of the way and let "Run DMC" shine. McFadden is no Adrian Peterson, but he is better than Fargas. Both are capable backs, but McFadden was the fourth overall pick for a reason. Fargas remains in the mix but won't get more than 20-25% of the touches this year.
JEFF HASELEY: Personally I think Fargas was a product of a surprisingly strong Raiders OL last year. He just happened to be the one healthy back at the time; therefore he produced the best numbers. The only other time he had over 100 carries in a season was 2006. That year he averaged 3.7 yards per carry. Enter Darren McFadden, who has more skills, ability, moves and speed than Fargas. There's no doubt in my mind that McFadden will be the primary ball carrier for Oakland this year. They didn't draft him to platoon.
MARK WIMER: I think that McFadden will earn the starting role (as long as there is not a long, damaging holdout), but the offense in Oakland isn't among the best units in the NFL. He'll be solid behind that line, but I don't expect an "Adrian Peterson" type first season from McFadden -- it simply takes time to adjust to the NFL level, even for the most talented prospects.
CECIL LAMMEY: Wimer brings up the most telling observation about the McFadden situation. Will there be a nasty holdout? With Al Davis still in charge anything can happen. Barring a long holdout, it is McFadden who will be starting for the Raiders, and why not? They could probably run the ball very effectively with Justin Fargas or Michael Bush, but neither of those guys is the talent that Darren McFadden is. In 14 games last year Adrian Peterson had over 1,600 all purpose yards. I believe that's the best case scenario for McFadden. He won't have as many rushing yards as Peterson, but he could end up near what Peterson totaled in all purpose yards. The Raiders have already been lining Run DMC up at QB, so expect to see many different looks from this offense. Ultimately, his production really relies on JaMarcus Russell. If Russell can make the defense play honest (no 8 or 9 in the box), then that will open up running lanes for McFadden. We all know about his game-breaking speed, but he can't create space on his own, either through power or elusiveness. This means gadgets, tricks, draws, and traps must be used to get Run DMC into the open space where his natural ability makes him lethal.
MARC LEVIN: McFadden is overpriced, but my money is on the rookie winning the starting role. Fargas will see the field a lot, though, as rookies tend to drag a bit in blocking, and Fargas is a great blocker. But, I wouldn't want either of these guys on my squad. I could easily see musical chairs all season long in the Oakland backfield. Fargas will probably present the better value, though, based on where each player is likely to be drafted.
DeAngelo Williams versus Jonathan Stewart?
ANTHONY BORBELY: I see Stewart getting 70% of the carries in Carolina and all of the goal line work. He has mid RB2 upside. DeAngelo will play a role similar to last year's. The drafting of Stewart spoke loud and clear to me...Carolina did not see DeAngelo as a starting RB.
JEFF PASQUINO: I'll disagree with Tony. Williams is the safer play here. He also was a first round pick, and John Fox does like to lean towards the players he knows versus a rookie. Stewart will get playing time if he is healthy and learns the offense. The toe injury is a key to watch, as is Carolina's training camp. Neither back will be fantasy gold, but the bigger workhorse here will be a solid RB2 or flex option. I'm leaning toward DeAngelo for now.
MARK WIMER: I'll side with Tony over Jeff on this one. Jonathan Stewart, assuming his toe heals properly, should trample DeAngelo Williams in his charge to the top of the depth chart, and assume the featured role in Carolina. The team is retooling to run a power-rushing attack at their NFC South opponents, and Stewart fits the mold the Carolina coaches covet. He's a guy I want on my fantasy team during the second half of 2008, especially, once he's acclimated to the NFL level.
CECIL LAMMEY: I have no faith in John Fox to get his RB decision right. It SHOULD be Jonathan Stewart that gets the majority of the carries, but it SHOULD'VE been DeAngelo to get the bulk of the work over the past couple years. The Panthers need to make a decision, and the sooner the better. If Stewart is the main man, then watch out NFL! He's not only a powerful and agile runner, but he's also a fantastic receiver with natural hands.
MARC LEVIN: This is Williams' job all the way, and he will have the vast majority of carries. Stewart is there to spell him and keep him fresh. I do not see Stewart holding much value this year except as a vulture to Williams' touches.
Willie Parker versus Rashard Mendenhall?
JEFF TEFERTILLER: Willie Parker is a veteran who is being overlooked this year. The Steelers like Mendenhall, but will still give Parker the majority of the carries. I look for Fast Willie to touch the ball close to 300 times this season. Yes, the rookie might get the touchdowns. But it is not as though Parker scored a ton in 2007 anyway. With the rookie hype, I expect Parker to be drafted in the RB25-30 range and produce high-end RB2 stats.
ANTHONY BORBELY: Parker should still have some value, but I think his value takes a big hit with the drafting of Mendenhall. I can see a 55-60% workload for Parker.
JEFF PASQUINO: I'll go even farther than Tony and say that Parker's days as a feature back are gone. His leg may be healed by now, but I think his psyche may be the bigger fracture. He struggled to reach the end zone last year, and now the Steelers have grabbed a running back in the first round after adding Mewelde Moore for third down help in free agency. This has committee written all over it, and if Mendenhall excels he is likely to be the better value play.
CECIL LAMMEY: This year Mendenhall will back up Parker and play the role that Najeh Davenport did last season. Next year however, it's all up for grabs in my opinion. You could see the roles reversed, with Parker be the change of pace for Mendenhall in 2009.
MARK WIMER: I'm with Cecil on this one. Rashard Mendenhall will be in a limited role this year as the short yardage/goal line back, as well as being the primary backup to Parker. If you play in a basic-scoring league, though, Mendenhall could have value as a goal line specialist. I expect to see Willie Parker dominate playing time in between the 20 yard lines this year.
MARC LEVIN: Until I see it happening in training camp, I refuse to believe the Steelers are planning to significantly reduce Parkers' touches. Parker is the starter, an every-down back, and a great value as a RB2.
Cedric Benson versus Matt Forte?
ANTHONY BORBELY: I think Benson's days with the Bears are numbered. He has shown very little in Chicago. He rarely makes big plays, doesn't break tackles, and is subpar as a receiver. Forte has decent skills and should be able to win this job.
JEFF PASQUINO: Benson has so many factors working against him, it is hard to imagine him as the starter for the Bears this year. His ankle is a problem, his heart is often questioned, and rumor has it that he has no locker-room support, either. Forte comes in as the fresh blood and the next big thing for the Bears, who would love to have a new option to turn to in the running game. Forte should win the camp battle handily and be the starter this year.
The sneaky pick is still the "other" Adrian Peterson, because if either Forte or Benson gets hurt then Peterson should see significant playing time.
CECIL LAMMEY: Benson is the starter -- for now. Matt Forte is already getting rave reviews from his teammates (listen to our Joey LaRocque interview on The Audible), and could easily be named the starter before the start of the season. The Bears will have to earn their yardage on the ground because there aren't many defenses that will be afraid of that passing game. This means yardage could be tough to come by for Forte, but a 1,000 yard season isn't out of the question.
MARK WIMER: Matt Forte should win the starting job, but it's hard to get excited about his prospects since Chicago's run-blocking was among the worst in the league (32nd averaging 3.1 yards per carry) last year.
MARC LEVIN: Bye-bye Benson. Forte will run away with this job, but watch out for the other Adrian Peterson to move into a RBBC with Forte.
Tatum Bell versus Kevin Smith?
ANTHONY BORBELY: Kevin Smith has a great situation with the Lions and should be the starter from day one. Bell has had plenty of chances but he is nothing but a backup.
JEFF PASQUINO: This may be settled before the first week in training camp is done. Kevin Smith is your starter and Tatum Bell has little value if any. Smith is the back to get if you want control of the Detroit rushing attack. Odds are that most fantasy players will jump on him early and the value will be eroded by most fantasy draft days.
JEFF HASELEY: The Lions did not move up in the draft to select Kevin Smith as a backup. Tatum Bell was a product of the Broncos running system, period. This is no contest. Kevin Smith will probably start from the get-go and as long as he stays healthy, he should produce big rushing numbers. Let's not forget, Kevin Smith totaled 2500+ rushing yards and 30 total TDs last year with Central Florida. He's no Troy Davis. Smith at 6-foot-1, 211 pounds has an NFL RB sized body. He could very easily be the 2008 Rookie of the Year, especially if Detroit's new rush-oriented offense under Rod Marinelli and Jim Colletto thrives.
CECIL LAMMEY: This one might seem like a no-brainer right now, but let's dig a little deeper shall we? First off, Kevin Smith set an NCAA record last year for most carries in a season with 450. RBs are like tires, they only have so much mileage on them. Smith had almost 1,000 carries in college and could wear down without a relief in his workload. Kevin Smith could also go the way of Jason Taylor because he likes to dance. Too bad it's behind the line of scrimmage. In 2007 Smith was tackled for no gain or for a loss an astounding 89 times. The holes in the NFL close up a lot faster than they do in college. He won't be able to be as indecisive in the NFL if he wants to be successful. I question his instincts for running the football because of his lack of patience. Two thousand yards in college doesn't mean what it does in the pros. Byron Hanspard anyone? Yeah, he almost broke Barry Sanders' single season rushing record, but it took a record-setting number of carries to get close. All that being said, he's still better than Tatum Bell. Let him bulk up his lower body a little more and become a patient runner and then we can shower him with compliments.
MARK WIMER: Smith seems to be turning heads in Detroit, as the team runs an offense similar to the one he played in during college and Smith is picking up his blocking assignments well early in minicamps. If Smith can continue to do this, he'll be on the field a LOT during 2008 as Tatum Bell simply isn't of the caliber of a featured NFL back. The Lions averaged 4.0 yards per tote last year, too, so their line is a capable unit (although they are installing a brand-new scheme, so it remains to be seen how well the transition will go).
MARC LEVIN: I think Bell will enter the season as the starter, but Smith will take over by game three or so. That means Bell holds little fantasy value and Smith is all upside. Now, whether ANY Detroit Lion running back is worth starting on a fantasy squad is a separate question.
Falcons Offense
There will be a lot of changes this year in Atlanta under new offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey.
What should we expect from Michael Turner this year? Does he have what it takes to be successful as a workhorse RB? Will the offensive line be able to open the holes he'll need?
MAURILE TREMBLAY: Michael Turner is an exceptionally talented runner. He's a bit one-dimensional, so you'll see Norwood subbing in for him on passing downs, but as a pure runner, Turner is one of the best in the league. You might have to go back to Earl Campbell or even Jim Brown to find a back who breaks more tackles and gets more yardage after initial contact than Turner. He has deceptive breakaway speed as well. I'm excited to see what he'll be able to do as a starter, and I wouldn't hesitate to draft him as my fantasy RB2.
ANTHONY BORBELY: I expect Michael Turner to have a solid year, but he will be limited at times by the lack of a good offensive line. I expect a minimum of 300 carries, and I see a mid RB2, possibly higher. I don't have any doubt that Turner will be a solid workhorse RB and I think if he ever plays behind a solid line, he has top-10 upside.
JEFF PASQUINO: Turner should see the majority of the work, but you have to temper expectations since he has not had that heavy of a workload yet in his career. Can he handle it, and more importantly, will they test that possibility? Norwood is not a bad running back, so giving him seven to ten touches a game and keeping Turner in the high teens would seem like a good idea. Either way, the offensive line is not that solid and it will be a struggle on the ground.
MARK WIMER: I'm going to take some exception with the notion that the Atlanta OL isn't very good in the rushing phase of the game. Jerious Norwood hasn't had any trouble rushing for 6.0 or more yards per carry in his first TWO years there (99/633/2 rushing in 2006 and 102/615/1 during 2007). I think the poor rushing performance last year as a team was due to Warrick Dunn hitting the 30+ veteran RB wall (and the lack of an effective down-the-field passing game until late in the year). Michael Turner is the sort of RB who can make an OL look good, much like Steven Jackson has made a poor-to-mediocre Rams' OL look adequate in the rushing game over the last two years. Turner and Norwood together should make some noise in their committee. Even with Dunn's average a huge drag on the team average, Atlanta's rushing attack averaged 3.9 yards per carry last season, posting 385 carries for 1520 yards. As a point of comparison, the Packers posted 388 carries for 1597 yards during 2007 (4.1 per rush). I wouldn't say that the Packers' OL was bad last year, nor do I think the Falcons were bad in the rushing phase.
Will Chris Redman hold off Matt Ryan for a year? What are the consequences for the rest of the offense if a rookie takes over at QB?
ANTHONY BORBELY: Ryan will start sooner rather than later and it is not out of the question for him to start in week one, although I believe Redman will start the first few games.
JEFF PASQUINO: Odds are good that Matt Ryan will get on-the-job training starting very early in the season, possibly starting in week one. Defenses will likely force issues with him and Turner, blitzing and putting eight in the box to push the rookie into possible errors. Even if Ryan gets the ball away, odds are that he will be under duress and Roddy White and others won't be getting very deep.
MARK WIMER: I agree with Jeff that we'll likely seeing Ryan early and often this season, especially since he signed early and won't miss any of training camp. That's going to lead to ups and downs for the Falcons' receivers. We've all seen rookie QBs struggle in their first NFL season, and there is no reason to think that Ryan will be any different. Once he finds his rhythm, though, Ryan could lead the offense to some good games toward the end of the season. If the Falcons struggle early like I expect them to, guys like Michael Turner and Roddy White might be good players to target in trades near the midway point of the season (when their perceived value is low), with an eye toward starting them during the fantasy playoffs if the Falcons can get things together by then.
Will Roddy White fall back to earth after a breakout 2007 campaign, or is he a rising star?
ANTHONY BORBELY: White came on in the latter part of last year, but I'm still a little skeptical about how much better he will be in the future. I think this year could be up and down for him if Ryan plays a lot. He is risky and tough to rank without knowing who the QB will be.
JEFF PASQUINO: For where you have to draft Roddy White, I'm passing on him. Mularkey wants to run the ball more often and with no Alge Crumpler at TE, defenses should be doubling White at least 50% of the passing downs if not more. Laurent Robinson would have to be extremely effective to cancel out that issue.
Speaking of Laurent Robinson, does he have any value in redraft leagues this year?
ANTHONY BORBELY: Laurent Robinson has value in a redraft league, but only as a spot starter and for depth. His inexperience and the likelihood of playing with a rookie QB will limit him.
The 2008 Draft
One of our resident draft experts, Jeff Pasquino, is going to take us home with some of his thoughts on the 2008 NFL draft. Jeff, which teams do you think helped themselves the most this past April?
JEFF PASQUINO: I like what Philly did, and that's coming from an Eagles fan. Sure, they didn't get the big name WR that every fan wanted, but it wasn't for lack of trying.
If you could have said to me that the Eagles would get their top WR (arguable, but DeSean Jackson was projected to the Eagles in several mocks at #19) and also get a 2009 first-rounder from a team that could struggle this year, I'd be thrilled. They also got several value picks (S Quentin Demps - Round 4, CB Jake Ikegwuonu - Round 4) later in the draft and are able to stash Ikegwuonu on IR this year. That was important as many suspect that there is no feasible way for the Eagles to have used all of their picks this year and roster them all. In 2007, they had to cut two DBs that would wind up on other teams simply because they could not get them through waivers.
The Eagles also worked more trades to get a solid RB for special teams and backup in Lorenzo Booker and made moves to position themselves for more 2009 value (trading a second day pick for one next season). It wasn't flashy but it was pretty solid.
I liked what Carolina did as well. The odd thing here is that they basically made a Brady Quinn-type trade with the Eagles, as Carolina gave up #43 and #109 and next year's first round pick for OT Jeff Otah. Had this been a quarterback move, the parallels would be clear - just over a year ago Cleveland gave Dallas the #36 pick and this year's first round selection for #22, which was Brady Quinn. The slight difference here is that Otah is more likely to play this year than Quinn was, but it is still an interesting comparison.
Carolina walked out of Radio City Music Hall with two first round choices of RB Jonathan Stewart and Otah, which sounds like that they are mortgaging their future to win now - and that is exactly the plan. Head coach John Fox is on his last chance as he has been given plenty of weapons to succeed in 2008. The Panthers brought in free agents Muhsin Muhammad and D.J. Hackett as WR2 and WR3 options, and QB Jake Delhomme should be 100% by training camp. Adding Otah and Stewart to push for a playoff run this season. Former Steelers head coach Bill Cowher is a short drive away and in waiting for the Carolina job after this season if Fox doesn't impress this year, so they must do everything they can to win in 2008. Adding Stewart and Otah, along with two solid defensive picks in LB Dan Donnor and CB Charles Godfrey gives them as much chance as anyone to push for an NFC postseason spot this season.
Kansas City is next for me. They took value after value throughout the draft, starting with arguably the best player overall in DT Glenn Dorsey. If any team needed an immediate infusion of new talent and youth, it is the Chiefs. Moving up for OG Brandon Albert and adding Virginia Tech's Brandon Flowers in Round 2 created three good picks right out of the gate.
Several other teams also did well. I like Baltimore getting QB Joe Flacco and RB Ray Rice, and the Steelers got good value all with WR Limas Sweed and RB Rashard Mendenhall.
What teams do you think missed some opportunities to improve?
JEFF PASQUINO: Two teams that seemed to miss the mark for me were Detroit and Tennessee. The Lions had the chance to get their choice of Mendenhall or Stewart but chose to drop back in the first and then reach for OT Gosder Cherilus, a player not everyone had going in Round 1. Sure, they got Kevin Smith in Round 3 for their tailback of the future and added LB Jordon Dizon in Round 2, but missing on first round values will haunt this franchise.
The Titans need WR help, yet they refused to take a receiver until Round 4.
Taking another RB in Round 1 is the move of an established team with the luxury
to take the best player available, but the Titans have glaring needs. Passing
on their #1 WR option seems foolish. Lavelle Hawkins is a nice prospect, but
there is a reason he was still available in Round 4. He is no Devin Thomas or
Limas Sweed.
Great stuff, guys. Thanks for kicking us off the right way with some great discussion in our first Roundtable feature of the year. We'll meet back here again next month with a new slate of topics.
