From the Gut Part 1 - Quarterbacks

  Posted 6/23 by David Dodds, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

As I comb through mounds and mounds of data to help me produce projections for the website, I still think back to some of my best fantasy rosters when I went in with a short list of guys I wanted to nab. Here are my early thoughts on some of the choices at quarterback.

Sometimes you just have to follow your gut.

Below is a list of players, strategies and just random thoughts that are buzzing in my head.

• Tom Brady, NE - Yes I know it's unrealistic to think Brady will come close to his 50 TDs this season. Or is it? What's really changed there? Moss is still there. Welker is still there. Their defense is likely worse (which may force them to score more points). And with Spy-gate semi-refusing to die; does anyone think Bill Belichick won't try and overpower teams once again? Logic tells me Brady won't get 50 again, but don't be too shocked when he scores 40-45 TDs. I know I won't be.


• Peyton Manning, Ind - At an overall ADP near 13, Manning will not be on any of my fantasy teams this year. I am not convinced Marvin Harrison will return to health (or has the desire to play football at an elite level) which could severely hamper Manning's weapons each Sunday. The Colts' defense held opponents to an NFL best 262 points in 2007. This is important because it means Manning will not have to air the ball out for the Colts to compete each week. I expect a more balanced attack from the Colts in 2008 with that translating to a subpar fantasy year for Peyton.


• Carson Palmer, Cin - I don't have a good vibe regarding the Bengals in 2008. HC Marvin Lewis seems desperate and is likely on the hot-seat. The team has let Chris Henry go (finally after multiple infractions with the law), but it almost seems too little to late. The team has already started to implode. Chad Johnson wants more money and is nursing a surgically-repaired ankle. T.J. Houshmandzadeh wants a new deal. The team will miss Chris Henry's ball-hawking ability on Sundays and needs both Johnson and Houshmandzadeh to be their best. RB Rudi Johnson played horribly last season at less than 100% and it's unsure whether he can regain form. Add in a subpar defense and this team isn't likely to win a lot of games in 2008. Although great players can sometimes put everything on their shoulders, I think even this much strife will wear on Carson Palmer. I expect the implosion to hit full-stride in 2008 and Palmer to have a down year.


• Matt Hasselbeck, Sea - He had a great 2007, but I remain a skeptic for this season. Deion Branch will likely miss a large part of the season and D.J. Hackett is no longer with the team. So how in the world does Matt still have such a high ADP with Bobby Engram and Nate Burleson as his go-to guys. Sorry, I don't buy it. He comes back to the pack and disappoints people expecting a lot more.


• Vince Young, Ten - Yes I am still drinking the Vince Kool-Aid here. It seems that everyone has counted him out this year. But he finished as the 19th best quarterback while managing to only throw nine TDs. His legs allow him to do things many other quarterbacks simply can't do. As everyone counts him out, I suspect he returns to the numbers that have everyone gushing about him. I think passing for 16 TDs while rushing for 600 yards and another seven scores is within reach.


• Eli Manning, NYG - As much as I enjoyed watching Eli find his groove at the end of last season, I still think he is just an average fantasy quarterback. The difference is he never misses any games. People will overpay for him in every league this year in my opinion. On a points-per-game basis, Eli will disappoint most everyone. But as other quarterbacks lose time to injuries, Eli will slowly creep up the overall board until he again finishes around 10. He won't be on any of my teams this year.


• Marc Bulger, StL - In six NFL seasons, Marc Bulger has played all 16 games exactly once (in 2006). He is fairly productive when he is on the field, but has had trouble staying on the field. He missed 4 games in 2007 and ended the year as the 22nd best quarterback. Marc averaged a career worst 6.3 yards per attempt last year playing behind one of the worst offensive lines. LT Orlando Pace, who missed significant time the last two seasons, still isn't working out as he recovers from shoulder surgery. And to add insult to injury, the Rams let go veteran Isaac Bruce in the offseason. Outside of the talented Torry Holt (who is nearing the end of his career at 32 years old), this team will need to rely on Drew Bennett and Reche Caldwell for its aerial attack. My gut has a very bad feeling here. I will let someone else pull the trigger on an often-injured quarterback, playing behind a subpar offensive line, with limited weapons at wide receiver on a team that is clearly in rebuilding mode.


• David Garrard, Jac - I am convinced this guy is a star. His team employs a run-first mentality and they are constantly rotating a slew of different wide receivers in, but I still think he is capable of becoming an elite fantasy QB. The run first Jaguars force defenses to load up the box to try and contain their potent run game. That sets up the play-action pass and also gets a guy like Jones-Drew free in space. He finished as the 16th best QB while playing in only 12 games. He averaged 200 yards and 1.5 passing TDs per game while throwing only 3 interceptions last year. I think 2008 is when it all comes together for Garrard and the Jaguars.


• Jason Campbell, Was - Jason throws a beautiful looking pass. With all the extra bodies the Redskins drafted this year (Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly and Fred Davis), I will be shocked if he doesn't take the next step as a passer. In a three game span last year, Campbell threw for 864 yards and six TDs (against Philadelphia, Dallas and Tampa Bay). I suspect we see more flashes of this brilliance in 2008 as he continues to mature as a player.


• Aaron Rodgers, GB - People seem torn over their expectations of Rodgers this season. Can he stay healthy? Will he even be a fraction of what Favre was? I am convinced he is ready to lead this team. He has great weapons (Jennings, Jones, Driver, Lee, Grant) and the team employs quick passing plays so I am not as concerned as others that Rodgers will get hurt on first contact. The Packers are his team now and as hard as it will be to live up to the expectations left from Brett Favre, I think Rodgers can do it. While at Cal under HC Jeff Tedford, Rodgers tore up the Pac10. He has been groomed for this day forever. My gut tells me he rises to the challenge.


• Jake Delhomme, Car - Jake started 2007 on fire (626 yards and eight TDs in less than three games of work) before injuring his elbow. This injury shelved Jake for the remainder of the 2007 season and required him to undergo "Tommy John" surgery in October. But all accounts have Jake ready to lead the team again in 2008. My gut tells me he responds to the adversity and holds onto the starting job all year. During the three games Jake was the starting QB, Carolina had the 6th best pass fantasy offense. During the 13 games he did not play, Carolina ranked as the 31st best passing offense.


• Alex Smith, SF - Although I expected much more from Smith earlier in his career, I think he redeems himself under OC Mike Martz this year. Left for dead by fantasy owners, Smith is getting drafted around pick 200 (if drafted at all). But history has shown us that Mike Martz finds a way to make offenses go. He has said publicly that he inherited more talent on this SF roster than he had in Detroit. And when SF added Isaac Bruce, Bryant Johnson and DeShaun Foster in the offseason, they seem serious about trying to move the chains this year. Early reports out of San Francisco have Shaun Hill struggling to learn the playbook so Smith will likely get first shot to lead this offense in 2008.