Reading the Defense Offseason Report - June

  Posted 6/26 by Jene Bramel, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Welcome back to another season of Reading the Defense, where we'll again be breaking down the nuances of defensive schemes and coaching philosophies to better understand defensive football. While our analysis and conclusions will primarily focus on leagues that use IDPs, we hope, as always, that the discussion will be interesting to all fans of defensive football.

To give those new to the column a taste of what we do, in past seasons, we've broken down the differences among the current 3-4 fronts and helped IDP owners to target 3-4 ILBs like Patrick Willis with full confidence despite fresh memories of Jonathan Vilma's collapse in a similar situation. We've shown how some 4-3 philosophies can highlight a MLB more than others, specifically pushing D.J. Williams as a top tier player despite concerns about his fit as a MLB. We've broken down the changing nature of the strong safety position and discussed how to exploit the Tampa-2 defense to tease out high potential performers in positions of traditionally weaker production (i.e. DT, WLB, CB).

As usual, the offseason was full of coaching and scheme changes, players changing roles within their defenses or moving to new roles in free agency. We'll take an in-depth look at every major story in our offseason report. And we'll also take a long look at a pressing question facing IDP leaguers this season: Was the decline in numbers among all defensive backs in 2007 an aberration or the beginning of a new trend?

Coaching and Scheme Changes

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins turned over the coaching staff this offseason, but it's Bill Parcells and his front office that will be running the show. New head coach Tony Sparano and defensive coordinator Paul Pasqualoni wouldn't definitively confirm it, but they've worked the offseason as if a move to Parcells' favored 2-gap 3-4 front is in the works. Miami added a number of big bodies to its defensive line and frequently lined up in a 3-4 during OTAs after Sparano was quoted as saying he wanted to stick with either a 4-3 or 3-4. The only loose end remaining is DE/OLB Jason Taylor. Taylor would fit well enough as an rush OLB in a 3-4 front, but you can expect to see some 4-3 looks if he's still on the roster come training camp. A move to a 2-gap 3-4 is a death knell for the IDP value of promising rookie DE Phillip Merling and could severely cut into the value of Taylor, who would be at risk of being reclassified as a LB in your league management system. It'll be interesting to see how well LB Channing Crowder performs if the Fins commit to the 3-4. On one hand, Crowder has yet to have the impact the Dolphins had hoped and is no lock to end up in the favored WILB position. Still, the Dolphin defense is going to see significant tackle opportunity and every other linebacker on the roster is replacement level or worse. Crowder's situation is so good that he may get 90+ solos regardless of how well he plays or his role within the scheme.

Cincinnati Bengals

Head coach Marvin Lewis was quoted as saying that the team was "installing a new defense" during the team's offseason workouts. Despite early speculation that the team was considering a move to the 3-4 front, the changes won't be quite as dramatic. However, though the changes on the depth chart will be subtle, the change in philosophy won't be. Though there's been little additional information about the planned changes, the Bengals are likely moving away from Lewis' favored read-and-react philosophy to the more aggressive, gap-attacking philosophy that new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer used in his 4-3 fronts in Dallas and Atlanta. That change could give big value to an instinctive, downhill talent at MLB. Unfortunately for IDP owners, Dhani Jones doesn't fit that profile, though he'll still be worth rostering as an every down player who should get at least average tackle opportunity. If Jones struggles, rookie WLB Keith Rivers could vulture extra tackles in pursuit and make himself into a rare non-Cover-2 OLB that can crack the top 20 overall linebackers by year's end. It also could boost the tackle numbers of both Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph, who will be asked to play a lot of press coverage at corner. Should they prove able to handle one-on-one assignments, the domino effect of the gap-attack philosophy will push one or both safeties into more frequent run support responsibility. The early money is on promising second year player Chinedum "Nedu" Ndukwe to take advantage, but you should also keep an eye on the progress of Marvin White.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars lost their defensive coordinator of the last five seasons, Mike Smith, who took the head coaching job in Atlanta. In his place, the team hired versatile and well-regarded Gregg Williams. It's anyone's guess how much the Jags' defensive philosophy will change this season, but that won't stop us from speculating a little. Del Rio had a major role in the defensive playbook and game plan and may well continue to do so. Williams has a reputation as a very aggressive coordinator, favoring frequent and confusing blitzing schemes inspired by his experience with the 46 front. However, Williams began using more and more Tampa-2 coverage calls during his last two seasons as the defensive coordinator in Washington, a scheme that rushes only the front four. The team wouldn't have hired a strong personality like Williams and then shelved much of his favored playbook and a deep, athletic and versatile back seven should allow Del Rio and Williams plenty of flexibility. Expect the Jaguars to be more aggressive this season, with a mix of read-and-react and attacking fronts, and some Tampa-2 mixed in with some aggressive blitzing packages. Despite the potential uncertainty, there's unlikely to be any major change in IDP value. MLB Mike Peterson should still have plenty of tackle and big play potential. The biggest wild card early this season will be OLB Justin Durant. Currently starting at LOLB, Durant could have a Michael Boley-like season if the team moves to either a more aggressive philosophy or more frequent Tampa-2 usage, especially if he can send veteran Daryl Smith to the bench on nickel downs.

Denver Broncos

Just a quick note here to mention that the Broncos officially cut ties with Jim Bates this offseason. That puts the final nail in the coffin of the "Miami" front defensive scheme that bumped the value of D.J. Williams early last season. Even if free agent acquisition Niko Koutouvides wins the camp battle with Nate Webster to start at MLB and somehow earns every down responsibility, he won't come close to the 106 solo tackles Williams produced in 2007.

Washington Redskins

After Gregg Williams moved on to Jacksonville, the team promoted Greg Blache to take over at defensive coordinator. Blache had some success with Dick Jauron in Chicago some years ago, where he was known as a read-and-react coach who rarely blitzed. Washington has said that the defensive philosophy isn't likely to change much this year, and the two IDP studs (London Fletcher and Andre Carter) should be fine regardless of the direction of the defense. Still, subtle changes could have a major effect on WLB Rocky McIntosh and S LaRon Landry. If Blache chooses to play less Cover-2 than Williams did last season, McIntosh may lose enough tackle opportunity to drop a full tier or more in IDP value. Blache also holds Landry's value in his hands. If Landry is used to patrol the deep middle in coverage, he has no chance of cracking the top 25 DBs in most leagues without a breakout big play season. If Landry somehow finds his way into a major run support role, his value skyrockets accordingly.

Minnesota Vikings

There weren't any major changes to the coaching staff in Minnesota this offseason, but the acquisition of Jared Allen may cause enough tweaks to the Viking defensive philosophy to make it look like defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier rearranged his 2007 playbook. The inability of the front four to generate a consistent pass rush forced the Vikings to avoid using the Cover-2/Tampa-2 defense Frazier had grown comfortable with in Indianapolis. Instead, Frazier was often aggressive on passing downs, blitzing his linebackers (E.J. Henderson and Ben Leber combined for nine sacks) and playing more man coverage than he may otherwise have wanted. The acquisition of Allen, arguably the league's most consistent pass rusher over the past two seasons, may allow the Vikings to play more Tampa-2 and blitz less this season. That could mean fewer sacks for Henderson (but a few extra coverage plays), a sizable bump in production for WLB Chad Greenway, fewer tackles for safeties Darren Sharper and Madieu Williams and continued big solo tackle numbers for corners Antoine Winfield and Cedric Griffin. Regardless of what philosophical changes may occur, Allen's acquisition may give inconsistent DE Ray Edwards a boost in value.

Atlanta Falcons

The coaching carousel - Mike Zimmer out as defensive coordinator, Mike Smith in as head coach - may cause the reverse of what's happening in Cincinnati to happen to the Atlanta defense. Out goes Mike Zimmer's aggressive, attacking scheme built on speed and tight man coverage and (probably) in comes Mike Smith's read-and-react scheme with a complicated mix of zone coverages. In raw IDP terms, there's probably not a big difference in value in 2008. Prospective rookie MLB Curtis Lofton should have good value, though his upside is dependent on whether he can earn an every down role (which looked questionable after veteran WLB Keith Brooking was wearing the helmet communicator in OTAs). SLB Michael Boley should still benefit from taking some snaps on the weak side if Smith continues the left-right OLB alignment the Jaguars favored. The Atlanta safeties may not be in the box much if Smith relies on the zone coverage mix he used in Jacksonville, but the defense could be on the field enough to provide enough tackle opportunity to balance that out anyway. Watch the Falcon corners closely early in the regular season. Chris Houston could have a breakout season if he can take advantage of the extra tackle opportunity a zone defensive scheme would give him.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In last summer's RTD Offseason Report, we discussed a rumor that the Bucs were moving away from a pure Cover-2 scheme and thinking about introducing some three man fronts to keep offenses guessing. While the rumor hinting at a 3-4 front didn't prove accurate, Tampa Bay did frequently use a 3-3-5 nickel package as the 2007 season wore on. This offseason, there continue to be rumblings from Kiffin that he's willing to use more wrinkles from his playbook. That may mean more linebacker blitzes, more in-the-box snaps for strong safety Jermaine Phillips and less tackle opportunity for the cornerbacks. It's probably not a major issue for IDP leaguers, but worth mentioning as a cautionary note for those who might be wondering if veteran WLB Derrick Brooks might see a rebound in production this season. Every snap the Bucs take in a scheme other than the Tampa-2 means less opportunity for Brooks. Set your draft boards accordingly.

San Francisco 49ers

The Niners are still saying that they want to use a lot of 3-4 fronts this season, but the acquisition of Justin Smith may force their hand back to a 4-3. Smith, a 4-3 end his entire career, has spent the bulk of this offseason trying to learn a standup LB role. If he can't handle the roving pass rusher role that head coach Mike Nolan envisions for him, Smith would be a much better fit as a 4-3 end than a 3-4 end. This is another situation where the IDP value of the major players on the Niner defense (Smith, Patrick Willis, Michael Lewis, Nate Clements) probably won't change much regardless of scheme, but you'll still want to watch how Smith is used and how your league management software classifies him. If he's classified as a LB, his value will be marginal except in big play scoring systems.

Major Offseason Player Movement

We've discussed the ripple effect of Jared Allen, Madieu Williams and Justin Smith on their new teams above, but there were a few other former top tier IDPs who changed teams this offseason.

Jonathan Vilma

Vilma was one of the most vexing IDP stories in recent years after his fall from the league's best fantasy option in 2005 to an afterthought in 2006 and 2007. Most blame the 3-4 scheme installed by Jet head coach Eric Mangini for Vilma's drop in production, but Vilma's overall attitude toward the scheme change and a knee injury last season also played a significant role. The scheme issues are behind him now, however, as Vilma's trade to New Orleans will move him back into his preferred 4-3 MLB role. If his knee is sound, Vilma should easily return to the top linebacker tier this season.

Zach Thomas

Most IDP owners will be leery of drafting Thomas this year, and rightfully so. Considering his recent history of injury, including a significant concussion problem in 2007, and his new role as a 3-4 ILB, there are plenty of reasons to be concerned about Thomas' prospects this year. However, it shouldn't be overlooked that Thomas was on pace for over 100 solos before the concussions ended his season last year and the 1-gap 3-4 scheme Wade Phillips uses has been very favorable to his WILBs in the past. If you can get Thomas at a price that makes the injury risk easier to handle (LB2 or later), his upside makes for a very attractive risk-reward gamble.

Gibril Wilson

Wilson moves on to his third scheme in three seasons after signing with Oakland in free agency. Wilson thrived under Steve Spagnuolo's aggressive scheme in 2007, remaining just as productive in all phases of the game as he was before Spagnuolo's arrival. The Oakland scheme should be just as favorable for Wilson, who should get plenty of in-the-box snaps with Oakland's solid group of cover guys in the secondary and a suspect strong side linebacker. Wilson should again be a stable DB1, with 80+ solo tackle potential.

Stunts

We've had a lot of in-depth discussions about this season's crop of rookie linebacker prospects on our message board. I posted an RTD-like breakdown of Jared Mayo in this thread shortly after the draft and still feel he's the top IDP option at linebacker from this group, despite widespread concern over the Patriot 3-4 scheme and the lack of any consistent IDP value from a New England IDP in recent seasons. Take a look at the linked thread for the full "Case for Jared Mayo" argument.

Things aren't exactly rosy for the other three consensus top tier rookie linebacker prospects. Curtis Lofton has been getting the bulk of the love from most IDP owners over the past two months, but his immediate value took a sizable hit when the Falcons announced that Keith Brooking was getting the first crack at wearing the helmet communicator. That strongly suggests that, at least for now, Lofton may not be seen as an every down player. In the long run, though, Lofton is still Mayo's chief rival in this class for IDP superiority.

Jordon Dizon was the upstart darling immediately after the draft, but the latest word is that the Lions were likely to follow through on their predraft statement that a rookie backer would be best broken in on the strong side. That's a good-news, bad-news situation for prospective owners. Starting on the strong side won't do much for his early career value, but could worry his current owners enough to make him available to you later this season.

Finally, there's Cincinnati's Keith Rivers. On one hand, he's the current best bet to be the only sure every down player among the four top tier rookies. On the other hand, he'll be playing OLB and is no lock to reach the elite 90 solo tackle plateau there. Don't be surprised, however, if Rivers ends up on a career track similar to that of Kirk Morrison. The Raiders started Morrison on the weak side next to a replacement level veteran in his rookie season, only to later come to the conclusion that they should move their best overall linebacker to the middle as their defensive anchor. With Dhani Jones and Ahmad Brooks unlikely to be long term answers for the Bengals, Rivers could make a similar move by opening weekend in 2009. Dynasty leaguers would do well to file the similarity away in their mental rolodexes.

While we're talking linebackers, let's take a walk down memory lane. This time last season, IDP owners were debating the long term value of Lawrence Timmons, with no consensus on where he'd ultimately settle in the Steeler defensive scheme. In the meantime, Timmons struggled through last season's OTAs and camps and was all but an afterthought during the regular season. For a player taken 15th overall in an NFL draft, his fall off the IDP radar has been stunning. Now is the time to take advantage of your leaguemates' loss of faith. Timmons has all but been handed the starting nickel/dime role this offseason and will strongly challenge Larry Foote to take over on base defensive downs as well. Timmons will still have to deal with veteran James Farrior and what has historically been the worst tackle opportunity in the league in recent seasons, but he is well-positioned to assume solid IDP value soon.

Indulge me while I'm pimp our message board content one more time. We've been closely tracking each team's likely 2008 every down linebackers in this thread all offseason, and watching the OTA news stories to learn which defenders will be wearing their team's helmet communicators to help generate the best lists. That research uncovered this valuable piece of information in early May. Not only were the Eagles pleased with the way Stewart Bradley finished the 2007 regular season, the team gave him a major vote of confidence as their every down MLB when they gave him the helmet communicator in their OTAs and minicamps. Bradley may not be the stud talent that draftmates Patrick Willis and Jon Beason are, but IDP value is often built on opportunity. Bradley is hovering in the 30s and 40s in most offseason rank lists (including mine), but he's got top 25 potential if he continues his good play through camp and starts the season running the huddle and wearing the communicator on all downs. He's an early candidate to be this season's biggest riser on the year end fantasy point rankings.

Our own John Norton once described my habit of holding IDPs who had yet to fulfill the lofty potential I saw for them by saying, "It's hard to know where patience ends and stupidity begins." It's a hard lesson to learn, but a smart IDP owner needs to know when you're backing the wrong horse and get out of the saddle. And it's that time with Leon Williams. Most of my FBG colleagues joined me in pushing Williams as a future every down option in Cleveland when it appeared that Andra Davis was on his way out. But Williams was never able to take the base defensive downs from Davis last year and the Browns traded up to grab promising rookie Beau Bell in the 4th round this year. Bell was a pre-draft favorite of mine and, while he didn't land in the most immediately productive situation, will likely end up in an every down role by opening weekend 2009. This season, the most likely scenario is a run-pass platoon between Bell and Williams.

Those of you in deeper leagues or leagues that require defensive tackles and cornerbacks as separate positions should be mindful of a few names that deserve consideration at the back of your roster. Fred Bennett (41 solos, 3 INTs, 12 PD in his final 8 games of 2007), Chris Houston (35 solos and 8 PD in his final 8 games of 2007), Brandon Flowers (rookie corner in a Cover-2 scheme) and Leigh Bodden (formerly productive vet in a Tampa-2 scheme) are all good bets to crack the top 15 overall corners this year. At defensive tackle, John McCargo (now reportedly a full time player alongside Marcus Stroud), Damione Lewis (will get a lot of 3-technique snaps between Julius Peppers and Ma'ake Kemoeatu) and Glenn Dorsey (rookie stud who will play 3-technique in Kansas City) could make noise in the DT point lists this year.

Despite persistent rumors (which were never confirmed by the Jaguars coaching staff) that veteran Mike Peterson would be moved outside or off the roster altogether, he'll again be manning the middle if Jacksonville's OTAs were any indication. Those hoping for Justin Durant to take over in the middle shouldn't be too upset, however. Durant was running with the first team at LOLB this spring and has the look of a Michael Boley like player in that role. If he can secure the second nickel linebacker role over Daryl Smith, he fits into that Anthony Simmons/Karlos Dansby/Michael Boley/Derrick Johnson historical group of productive linebackers who take a lot of snaps on the strong side.

Are "Stud" Defensive Backs Becoming A Thing Of The Past?

The major IDP story from 2007 was the confusing disappearance of a sizable number of formerly consistent studs. Guys like Keith Bulluck and Julius Peppers, consensus can't miss players, finished with nowhere near the production expected by their draft slots and without age or injury or supporting cast issues to take the blame. But there was a much larger and widespread issue that affected an entire position in most IDP leagues. There were no "stud" defensive backs.

• Only one defensive back finished with more than 80 solo tackles in 2007 (average of over six per season with 80+ solos from 2003-2006).
• Two defensive backs finished with more than 20 passes defended in 2007 (at least six per season with 20+ PD from 2003-2006). 15 defensive backs finished with more than 15 passes defended in 2007 (at least 20 per season with 15+ PD from 2003-2006).
• No defensive back finished with more than 185 points in FBG standard scoring (at least five per season with 185+ fantasy points from 2003-2006).
• The #1 overall DB in FBG scoring in 2007 would have finished no better than 6th in any of the previous four seasons.
• The #12 overall DB in FBG scoring in 2007 would have barely been a mid DB2 in any of the previous four seasons.

For those of you who like tables, here's the carnage in terms of points within various tiers. Note that the top two tiers of fantasy scoring were cumulatively well underrepresented in 2007 when compared to the prior four seasons.

There are all sorts of potential reasons for the poor production among defensive backs last season. The question that must be asked is, "Is this a real and meaningful trend?" And, if it is, how do we exploit it to our best advantage?

1. A number of stud consensus defensive backs didn't play full seasons.
   While it's true that guys like Antoine Winfield and Adrian Wilson and Sean Taylor and Troy Polamalu and Brian Dawkins and Dunta Robinson and Gibril Wilson missed a significant number of games, similar injury bugs have hit the DB ranks in the past and not caused such a widespread drop in numbers. The injuries to so many of the consensus top DBs undoubtedly played some role, but may not be enough to explain the near 50% drop in the first two tiers of the cumulative distribution table above.


2. The league is playing a higher percentage of nickel downs and using more DB specialists than ever before.
   It should be noted that the NFL has been a passing league for decades now, so whether or not there are more nickel downs and DB specialists is up for debate. Either way, the argument would be that the increased penetration of nickel and dime backs has diluted the tackle opportunity for all the defensive backs. Looking at the past three seasons worth of tackle data, the percentage of tackles made by corners and safeties is essentially unchanged. It's not a specialist issue.


3. Today's linebackers are much better in coverage and have the speed to vulture more tackles in pursuit.
   Unlike the uncertainty regarding whether the league is playing more defensive snaps in the nickel package, there's little question that the linebackers are better in coverage and pursuit than they were five, ten and twenty years ago. But that didn't happen overnight and, again, the past three seasons of tackle data show no statistical difference in the percentage of tackles made by linebackers and defensive backs.


4. More 3-4 fronts and Tampa-2 defenses have taken the strong safety out of the box and limited tackle opportunity for the DB pool.
   This argument has a ring of truth to it as well but can also be refuted. Plenty of 3-4 safeties have cracked the upper tier of fantasy DB scoring - Rodney Harrison, Sean Jones, Kerry Rhodes just in recent seasons alone. And while zone coverage schemes like the Tampa-2 keep the safeties out of the box, much of the decreased tackle opportunity for the safeties is transferred to the corners anyway, staying under the DB umbrella.


5. Stadium crews have significantly cut back on the number of passes defended they are awarding.
   This one may have legs. As noted in the bullets above, defensive backs totaled fewer passes defended in 2007 than any of the previous four seasons. That statistic becomes more meaningful when compared with the number of passing attempts in the league last season, which were higher than any of the previous four seasons. In fact, the league had 620 more passing attempts last year - an increase of 50% of the pass attempts in an average single NFL week over the previous four seasons. A deeper look at the decreased passes defended and increased pass attempts generates a concerning result: there were 10% fewer passes defended awarded in the NFL last year. This is something that warrants follow-up.

By now, you're probably asking yourself, "Is there really any utility in this exercise?" Those who know the RTD column well, know that we preach that it's a mistake to "react" to data without considering all the factors. Given that many inexperienced IDP owners are prone to chase trends, it won't be surprising to find that the 2007 season will drive an "I always knew DBs weren't trustworthy" frame of mind this summer. If we can convince ourselves that 2007 was just an unlikely to be repeated anomaly, there may be a big opportunity for the taking if some of the former "stud" defensive backs start slipping a round or three in this season's drafts.

We'll be tracking the percentage of passes defended awarded to DBs early this season, but without another clear indication that the 2007 season was anything more than an injury aided fluke, it's worth strongly considering moving on the stud defensive backs (particularly the better safeties) without hesitation if they slip an extra round in your summer drafts. Getting an 80-85 tackle defensive back is like adding an extra LB2 to your starting lineup and definitely a risk worth taking.

Don't forget to check out our offseason IDP Podcasts on The Audible (available from the Podcast tab on the FBG homepage and iTunes). We did a two part postdraft review in early May and will be back for frequent updates leading up to and during training camps before resuming our weekly show during the 2008 season. For all the latest IDP news and analysis, remember to check out our dedicated IDP Forum on the FBG message board.

RTD will be back for two more special editions this summer, including a monster article on all things scheme related in July and a "from the gut" set of ramblings in August. And, as always, questions, suggestions and discussion are welcome by e-mail at bramel@footballguys.com.