Deep Sea Fishing: Tampa Bay's WR2
Posted 6/12 by Sigmund Bloom, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
At this point in the offseason, the NFL rosters are large enough that the "potential value" of winning a position battle is spread out among many contenders. Knowing who's got a dog in the fight can allow you to milk more upside out of end of the roster spots in deep dynasty leagues. Liberal offseason roster limits and late round pick can be used to get more than one of the contenders in a race. This is a smart strategy because the prevailing winds of a position battle can change quickly during training camp, and you don't want to be relegated to the waiver process if an injury or a breakout happens during the preseason. Now is the time to position your rosters to have some lottery tickets in these potentially productive openings at WR, and knowing who is winning these battles can help you cash in on late picks in early redrafts. Let's run down and handicap the primary participants - many of whom are on your league's waiver wire:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers #2
The Situation: Tampa is not exactly a prolific passing offense, ranking in the bottom third of the league in passing attempts per game. Last year's #2, Ike Hilliard, had 62 catches, including a mid season spree of 38 catches in a six game stretch, so there's something there at least for PPR leagues, but a look back at 2005 and 2006 shows little for the #2 WR in the offense, with Hilliard and Michael Clayton each getting about 35 catches a year as the 2a and 2b. One thing to consider is that Joey Galloway hurt his shoulder late last year, clearly affecting his play and the Bucs still lack a go-to target at TE. An injury to Galloway could make the winner of this job the #1 target for a stretch. Rookie 2nd round pick Dexter Jackson should make the team as a return man even though he's probably not ready to contribute as a receiver yet, which means there may only be three roster spots to go around at the position, and four at the most.
The Contenders
- Ike Hilliard: Sure handed, and had more juice in his legs than we thought he had left last year. Coach Jon Gruden has already said the Bucs have "competition everywhere else" after Galloway in the WR corps, so this one is a free-for-all, and you get the sense that he wants someone to step up and take that job from Hilliard - but it is Hilliard's as of this moment. Ike was very productive in the first half of the season before a wide range of injuries started to chip away at his play and production.
- Michael Clayton: Where, oh where, can 2004 Michael Clayton be? He's never returned to his rookie year form, but his blocking and experience in the system will probably buy him a roster spot. Most of us are done hoping that he will find his game again, but more unlikely candidates have done it. Clayton has been banged up every season since that prodigious debut, so maybe the magic can return if he stays healthy.
- Maurice Stovall: Stovall has been a special teams demon, but has failed to distinguish himself as a receiver. He seems to lack the suddenness to create separation, but he did come close to winning the starting flanker job in training camp by most accounts last year, and he is in year three, the most likely breakout year for a young WR.
- Antonio Bryant: Here's where it gets interesting. Bryant has starter's ability, there's no question about that, but he has been locker room cancer at every stop in his NFL career. There was not much interest in Bryant after he was released last year. It took the Bucs faith, a team that has been so fond of giving players second (and third and fourth) chances, for Bryant to finally get back in the NFL after an embarrassing episode when Bryant seemed to think he was exempt from drug testing because he was a free agent. This is his last chance, so maybe that will motivate him. Of course, you could have said that about his stop in San Francisco. He still has more upside than any other contender for this job.
- Paris Warren: Warren was one of the stars of the 2007 preseason before breaking his leg and dislocating his ankle. He made a strong case for a roster spot after spending 2006 on the practice squad, but now is back to square one. The team did re-sign Warren to a one-year deal during his ERFA period in February, so you they at least want give him a shot to impress one more time before letting him go. Gruden even compared him to Earnest Graham in April:
- Chad Lucas: The NFL Europe star was singled out by GM Bruce Allen in the offseason as having a possibility to emerge as the much needed playmaker at WR2 after he learns the offense. Lucas showed good hands and speed in his five-catch, 82-yard performance in Week 17, including a 52-yarder where he was so far behind the D that he was able to field the bomb from Luke McCown like it was a punt. It would have been an easy TD if McCown had more arm strength.
"Paris Warren is an interesting guy, too," Gruden said. "He has (six) touchdowns in (eight) preseason games. You go back and watch it and say, 'You know, he may be our go-to guy this year. He's beaten this guy. He's beaten that guy.'
"It took me three years to figure Earnest out. When you watch the preseason game & what do we have the preseason games for? There goes Earnest Graham. It's a preseason game. Put him in a regular-season game, and it's, 'You know what? I'm an idiot.' Maybe Paris Warren needs to play."
