Buy Low / Sell High (WRs)
Posted 6/19 by Sigmund Bloom, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
As training camps approach, Buy Low/Sell High will cover the league by position, focusing on dynasty value.
BUY LOW
Steve Smith, Carolina - Smith is not an overwhelming buy low, but he has undeservedly fallen from the uberstud tier, so it might be time to try to trade up to Smith in a 2 for 1. He was putting up Randy Moss numbers (16/281/4) before Jake Delhomme went down, and that included one game where he was held to one catch for 10 yards by DeAngelo Hall - who is now a Raider (although Carolina does travel to Oakland in week 10). Smith was dragged down by David Carr - he had an anemic 20/159/1 in the five games that Carr saw extended action. That is the only reason Smith's numbers dropped off. Jake Delhomme appears to be back from Tommy John surgery, and just in case he's not, Smith posted 22/257/1 in backup Matt Moore's three starts.
Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City - Last chance to get on the Bowe train before it leaves the station for good. His "my ball" mentality and rare numbers for a rookie WR foreshadow the career of an elite WR. His offensive line and QB can only get better. Work the phones to try to turn WRs like Wes Welker, Roddy White, and Jerricho Cotchery into Bowe - be willing to toss in that extra player or pick to make it happen.
Greg Jennings, Green Bay - Jennings isn't a massive value right now, but his stature is taking too much of a knock in the wake of Brett Favre's retirement. It's easy to forget that Jennings missed two games last year, and STILL ranked as WR12. Obviously, it's hard to expect a repeat of his four 50+ yard touchdowns, because Aaron Rodgers probably won't just wing it out there like Favre did. That is not a big deal because Jennings is a multidimensional threat. He's elusive and explosive after the catch and runs tight routes. Rodgers should get him the ball on quick slants and other short routes where he can show off his RAC ability and sustain his top 20 stats. Also, Donald Driver got 122 targets to Jennings 84 (hard to believe he was WR12 with only 84 targets, right?) - Rodgers will spread the ball more, and Jennings will be the #1 WR in the offense before long.
Anthony Gonzalez, Indianapolis - I had my doubts about Gonzalez's ability to be more that Brandon Stokley 2.0 in Indy, and he seemed to prove me wrong once he got the hang of the offense. The Ohio State product posted 21/369/3 in his last five games of '08, and he should become a perennial top 20 WR once Marvin Harrison hangs up his cleats. There are lots of signs that we have seen the last of Marvin Harrison the fantasy stud, but if you wait until the season for confirmation, it'll be too late to nab Gonzalez on the cheap.
Nate Burleson, Seattle - I've been as harsh as anyone on Burleson, but the depths his value has fallen to in dynasty leagues is a bit absurd. I think more pedestrian WRs could do more with his opportunity than he does, but that doesn't matter because they're not on the roster. He should be a starter to open the season and at least be a WR3/WR4 by default because of the productivity of the Seattle passing offense. I wouldn't give up of anything of considerable value for him, but judging by the latest FBG dynasty rankings, you won't have to - two staffers have him in the 70s, and one has him unranked.
Joey Galloway, Tampa - Galloway hasn't lost a step, and he's still the clear #1 WR in Tampa. He was WR21 last year despite doing nothing after hurting his shoulder early in week 16. There are absolutely no threats on the Tampa roster to Galloway's role as the #1, and he's under contract for 2009. He should give you WR2 numbers for at least two more years, but his dynasty value doesn't seem to reflect his continued productivity. In general, old WRs usually discounted too much in dynasty leagues at this time of year. Donald Driver, Bobby Engram, and Isaac Bruce are also good buy low candidates to inquire about if you have a hole in your starting lineup at WR or Flex, or just want to build quality depth.
Jabar Gaffney, New England - Gaffney may only provide one year of great production, but he is still worth pursuing in dynasty leagues because he's an afterthought in most people's minds. Gaffney was able to overtake Donte Stallworth as the #3 in the second half of the '07 season, and the Pats re-signed him for another year in the most prolific passing offense in the league, but you wouldn't know it by the lack of buzz around him. He caught four touchdowns in the last six games of the season - remember, that's after Brady's insane run of pinball machine numbers early in the season. Like the other underrated vet on the roster, Sammy Morris, at worst Gaffney will be a solid emergency/bye week/injury play. If Moss or Welker suffer a prolonged injury, he could be the surprise 1,000 yard receiver of 2008 - don't laugh, his second half splits as the #3 last year project out to 56/788/10 over a full season. Gaffney has been an on and off reliable, trusted target for Brady since his run as their de facto #1 in the 2006 playoffs, and that should not change this year. Getting Gaffney is a no-brainer if you own Chad Jackson or Wes Welker.
Laurent Robinson, Atlanta - Michael Jenkins has used up his chances to prove he was worth a first round pick, so it's Robinson's time to shine in Atlanta. He came out of the gate faster than expected last year, rendering Joe Horn irrelevant. Robinson showed his explosiveness in a long-limbed frame and natural receiving skills would indeed translate from I-AA Illinois State. He should become the starter opposite Roddy White, and probably get most of the deep targets from Matt Ryan. Robinson is behind White on most lists, but their final numbers will be a lot closer than their current rankings. He's one of the most physically talented wideouts who wasn't a starter in '07, so it shouldn't take long for his buy low window to slam shut when he's consistently running with the first team in training camp.
David Patten, New Orleans - I am baffled at the lack of respect Patten is getting in fantasy circles. Many were throwing him on the scrap heap after injuries limited him to 15 games during his two year stint in Washington, but New Orleans knew better. While physically gifted players like Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson disappointed, Patten was finding the soft spots in opposing pass defenses and hooking up with Drew Brees for big plays - to the tune of 13 catches for over 20 yards. He also looked as quick and fast as ever. Patten's last four games of 2007 project out to 92/1148/8. It's absurd to expect him to finish near those numbers, but he should fall somewhere north of his 2007 total of 54/792/3, and if Robert Meachem lets the Saints down again this year, 1000 yards is within Patten's reach. He's a dirt cheap part of a big time air show who has already proven he can riff with the QB - and worth seeking in a minor deal if you need depth at WR or own Meachem.
Craig Davis, San Diego - I wasn't a huge fan of the Davis pick in the first round, and I'll admit that I did not target him in rookie drafts last year. Anyone who did was surely disappointed when the Chargers went out and acquired Chris Chambers, effectively shutting the door on a starting spot that became available when Eric Parker went under the knife in training camp. So Davis did not knock his opportunity at extended playing time as a rookie out of the park. He seemed raw compared to other highly drafted WRs in 2007, so this was no shock. You would think he was cut in the offseason by how far his value has fallen, yet he still has a strong chance to win the #3 job this year, and start after at least one of Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson moves on after next season. It is way too early to give up on a talent like Davis, yet it seems like many have.
SELL HIGH
Terrell Owens, Dallas - By no means should you be rushing out to sell TO at any cost, he still looks like a solid WR1 at this point for at least the next 2-3 years. Still, he did get probably his last big contract, he's under more scrutiny by the NFL for use of performance enhancers, and he did disappear from games late last season. If you can turn him into a younger uberstud like Braylon Edwards or Andre Johnson, and the price isn't too high, I'd do it. If your team is probably out of the running for a title this year, it's also a good idea to cash TO in while he's still seen as an elite WR - just in case he has a Marvin Harrison-esque swoon this year.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati - Housh is a good WR, but no WR gets more numbers out of less talent. He doesn't have any outstanding tools, but he does get a ton of targets in Cincinnati's passing offense. He did post the first top 10 finish of his career last year, but that was partially on an inordinate number of targets that is unlikely to be repeated (169), and his run of eight straight games with a TD to open the season - he scored twice in the second half of the year. He could stay in the top 10 this year by necessity now that the Bengals have let Chris Henry go, but the writing is on the wall that he probably won't be a Bengal next year when his contract is up. The Bengals drafted two talented WRs in the top 100, and Housh is going to turn 31 this year. He could easily find himself relegated to highly productive slot receiver or starter in a much less potent passing offense in '09. Trade him now while some still see him as a WR1.
Reggie Williams, Jacksonville - There's no reason to expect Williams to reproduce his 10 touchdown total on only 38 catches last year, which is the only reason we are even talking about him as a relevant fantasy WR in 2008. The Jags went out and got Jerry Porter (see below), which might not have been the wisest move, but this is the team that invested first round picks in Williams and Matt Jones, so maybe they just have a blind spot when it comes to big fast WRs. The passing offense is designed to spread the ball around, and that should not change with the addition of Porter and continued development of Mike Walker and Marcedes Lewis.
Jerry Porter, Jacksonville - The only contract given to a free agent WR worse than the one the Jags gave Porter was the one his old team gave to Javon Walker. Porter has only been a good fantasy WR when he had two hall of famers distracting the defense (2002), or when he's gotten 8+ targets a game (2004, 2005). Neither of these are even remote possibilities in Jacksonville, and they are a team that likes to take the air out of the ball to boot. It's time to realize that the 30 year old Porter is never going to live up to the stellar expectations he inspired in '02.
Roddy White, Atlanta - I don't think White's emergence as the #1 target in Atlanta was an illusion, and I like the way his talent fits Matt Ryan's style as a QB - often setting his receivers up for good YAC opportunities, which is White's forte. Even with that optimism, I still have to believe that White's 2007 will represent career highs in yardage and probably receptions. He benefited from 137 targets in Bobby Petrino's pass first offense, a number that is unlikely to be repeated on a team that is clearly transitioning to a conservative run-first offense under new offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey. Check around to see if you can use White as a platform to upgrade to a young WR whose numbers are likely to be on the rise instead of in a modest decline.
DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia - It's probably impossible to sell high on a rookie WR who is often not even getting into the second round of rookie drafts, so let this serve as a warning to not draft him. Some insiders told me they would not even put Jackson on their draft board because of character issues, and early reports out of Philadelphia seem to match that reputation. I'll take it all back if Jackson has a revelation in training camp and changes his ways, but for now he should be considered radioactive in rookie drafts.
Roy Williams, Detroit - Williams is still in his prime, and I will not deny that he's the kind of physical specimen who *should* be hanging with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson, but it's time to stamp him as what he is - a disappointment. He has exhibited a "me first" mentality, and only lived up to his considerable fantasy potential in a Mike Martz offense (2006). He has averaged three games missed due to injury and fewer than 800 yards in his other three seasons. Williams will be a free agent in 2009, and his attitude and track record will probably not be as well-received around the league as he would hope (then again, Javon Walker got a huge deal this year, so who knows?). You might able to upgrade him to a real WR1 before Calvin Johnson takes over as the #1 in Detroit, but probably not after.
