Buy Low / Sell High (TEs)
Posted 6/19 by Sigmund Bloom, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
As training camps approach, Buy Low/Sell High will cover the league by position, focusing on dynasty value.
BUY LOW
Jason Witten, Dallas - I'm very surprised that only Jeff Haseley joins me as staffers with Witten as the #1 dynasty TE. Witten decisively knocked Gates from his perch as TE1, and he's not coming into the season rehabbing from a serious foot injury. Witten is also in the better offense, with the better QB, who happens to be one of his best friends. I would trade Gates for Witten straight up without blinking.
Todd Heap, Baltimore - It's clear now that Heap's injury last year was a torn hamstring, so we certainly shouldn't hold his inability to return for more than a game against him. He was plenty productive when he was in, on a 78/764/4 pace, which would have made him TE7 last year - which should be considered his floor, because Cam Cameron is the same guy who turned Antonio Gates into the #1 TE in fantasy football from 2004-2006. Expect to see Heap split out wide as often as Gates was in San Diego during the Cameron years. Heap is thought of as injury prone, and while he is on the injury report a lot, he also played all 16 games four out of the last five years heading into 2007.
Zach Miller, Oakland - Miller is not a speedster, and he's not ultra-athletic, but we can already see that he just knows how to get the job done. He was good enough in all facets of the game to start and get a rare amount of snaps for a rookie TE. For a preview of Miller's role in Oakland's offense, cue up JaMarcus Russell's one start in 2007 (week 17). Anytime his primary receiver was not open, and especially during the two minute drill, Russell would know exactly where Miller was and deliver the ball to him. He had 8-84 that week, so 80+ catches is definitely not out of the question. This is the first of many years that Miller will be a top 10 TE.
Tony Scheffler, Denver - What a draft 2006 turned out to be for the Broncos. They got their franchise QB in the first, their franchise WR in the fourth, and their big time receiving threat from the TE position in the second. Scheffler's foot injury kept him from making an impact until October, but after that he was very solid fantasy TE, worth starting if you didn't own an elite option. His second half splits project out to 66/776/6 - firmly in the middle of TE1 tier, and as long as his foot holds up, he'll be the #2 target for an excellent young QB for a long time.
Randy McMichael, St. Louis - Al Saunders knows how to use the TE in the passing game, and judging by the Rams WR corps, he'll need to use them to make this offense work. The team also signed Anthony Becht to be a dedicated blocking TE, which means McMichael should spend a lot more time running routes, where he is most comfortable. If Drew Bennett plays the way he did last year, McMichael could be the #2 target in the passing game, and as long as Orlando Pace holds up, Marc Bulger will have plenty of time to find him.
Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville - Every time I watch Jags tape, I'm impressed with something Lewis does, whether it's strong blocking in the running game, making tacklers miss after the catch, or adjusting to the ball like a wide receiver. Ernest Wilford is gone, and Matt Jones may be soon to follow, which should free up lots of red zone targets for the 6'6" UCLA product, and he's definitely a good enough blocker to be on the field for every down. He should elevate his numbers to low TE1/high TE2 for fantasy this year, but he has the talent to do a lot more in the future.
Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City - Gonzo is 32, but I've yet to see any signs of a drop-off in his game. Even if you only assume two more top 5 years from the future hall of famer, it's pretty cheap to get a Miller/Scheffler/Keller to be ready to kick in just as Gonzo is falling off. Unless you own Witten/Winslow/Gates, trading for Gonzalez will give your starting lineup an immediate boost - definitely make a play for him if his team looks weak heading into 2008, because his owner will likely want to sell high.
David Thomas, New England - Here's your end of the roster fodder TE that just might pay off. Thomas was Vince Young's most reliable target in Texas magical championship season, and the one time he got a shot at extended playing time in Ben Watson's absence, he caught all five targets from Tom Brady for 83 yards and a TD in week 16 of 2006. A foot injury derailed his 2007, but if he stays healthy in 2008, he could split TE targets with Ben Watson, and maybe even reproduce numbers like 5/83/1 in a game when Watson chalks up a few games to injury.
SELL HIGH
Dallas Clark, Indianapolis - Clark has the value of an every-week starting fantasy TE right now, but a closer look at his number reveals that rolling with Clark week after week can be a recipe for disaster. Even with Marvin Harrison out and Anthony Gonzalez sill learning the ropes, Clark only eclipsed 2.2 fantasy points three times in the last nine contests of 2007. Two out of every three weeks, he was barely better than starting me at TE on your fantasy team. Even worse, if you did finally wise up and bench him for your week 16 Super Bowl, you missed out on a two TD performance. He's just not a stable enough part of the passing offense to make a cornerstone of your fantasy team. If you own him, work out a deal while that double digit TD total conceals a hot and cold fantasy TE that hurts you as much as he helps you.
Owen Daniels, Houston - Obviously, TE is a position where I see a lot of players to feel optimistic about, but Daniels is not one of them. He was a very solid intermediate target, and Matt Schaub did a great job of finding when he was open downfield. In fact, there's a good argument for Daniels as a buy low in there, because Daniels only had less than 50 receiving yards once in the eight games that Schaub threw more than 20 of the Texans passing attempts. On the flipside, that underscores just how much Daniels production shrunk when Schaub was out. Even if Schaub does stay healthy, Jacoby Jones should emerge this year, and Daniels had a lot of his biggest games when Andre Johnson was out. Daniels role in the passing offense seems too dependent on factors out of his control to feel comfortable with him as your TE1.
Greg Olsen, Chicago - Olsen might have broken a record for push-offs that were not called by the refs in his rookie year, but there's reason to doubt his growth even if the zebras continue to let him get away with murder. The sad truth is that Olsen only put up good numbers when Brian Griese was throwing 40 passes a game in October. Griese is gone - which leaves the alternatives of Rex Grossman (chuckle) and Kyle Orton (snicker). Grossman favored Desmond Clark when he threw to the TE, and Olsen had a rousing 5 catches for 45 yards in Orton's three games.
Ben Watson, New England - Watson gets hurt every year, he still sometime reacts to the football like it's a grenade, and while he was a very efficient red zone target for Tom Brady, he'll be sharing time with the more sure handed David Thomas as long as Thomas can stay healthy this year. All but one of his six TDs came during the early barnstorming part of the season for the New England passing game, and while he should still get his, Watson is only a bye week/injury fill-in at this point after a promising 2006.
