Buy Low / Sell High (RBs)
Posted 6/12 by Sigmund Bloom, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
As training camps approach, Buy Low/Sell High will cover the league by position, focusing on dynasty value.
BUY LOW
Sammy Morris, New England - He's 31 and coming off a season-ending injury, but don't let that discourage you from making a play for Morris in your dynasty league. That season ending injury was a freak clavicle-sternum separation. If the Patriots are worried about it recurring this year, you can't tell by their (lack of) personnel moves at RB. They didn't add anyone in the draft or free agency - which shows confidence in Morris. The Pats came out of the gate last year with an RBBC of Maroney and Morris, and the way Maroney was fresh for finishing duty in the playoffs should only encourage them to do that this year. Morris got goal line carries when both were healthy, and posted two hundred-yard games in Maroney's absence. He posted double digit fantasy points in four of five games before getting injured in week 6. At worst, you'll get a solid part of the running game of the best offense in the league, with an upside of Corey Dillon 2005-06, but as soon Maroney gets nicked, you'll have the starting RB - and you might even get a bonus year in 2009.
Greg Jones, Jacksonville - Jones is a bargain basement RB right now - if people even think about him as an RB. He became -the highest paid fullback in history- when the Jags signed him to a five-year, $17.4 million deal. Jacksonville must like Jones to do more than lead blocking to give him that kind of money. Don't forget, Jones busted off two 100+ yard games in the second half of the 2005 season and was reportedly looking great in 2006 camp before tearing his ACL. In week 17, Jones got to touch the ball 17 times and piled up 98 total yards while displaying the same burst and tackle-breaking ability he had in college. Jones is first in line to get more work if Fred Taylor or MJD get dinged, and down the line, his paycheck says he could do more in a road grading rushing attack.
Edgerrin James, Arizona - There's no reason to think Edge can't rack up another 350 touches and put the Cardinals run game on his back for a third straight year. He came on in the second half of the year, and the team gave no signals that they see a drop-off coming in the draft, only taking Richmond Spider Tim Hightower in the fifth round even though they had the chance to take Rashard Mendenhall in the first. James came on in the second half of the season, so his age doesn't seem to be a factor yet - in fact his second half splits would make him an RB1. This is year two of the WhisenGrimm regime, and you know the run will be a top priority. I would be comfortable with James as my RB2 this year, which justifies his price alone, but I think he gets one more year as the bellcow in '09 before he rides into the sunset.
Thomas Jones, New York Jets - Just as we can't trust abnormally high TD numbers when projecting the following season, we shouldn't trust abnormally low numbers. Jones paltry 2007 TD total of two should get back to at least six, his TD production in 2006, assuming he gets 300+ touches again. I say at least because to my eye, the problem was not Jones running as much the inability of the Jets line to open holes. They addressed that problem by signing Alan Faneca, Tony Richardson, and Damien Woody. The team only brought in Jesse Chatman and Musa Smith to compete as #3 options since Leon Washington is not well suited to carry the load if Jones goes down - so Jones' role is safe.
Jerious Norwood, Atlanta - We haven't heard the last from Jerious Norwood. Sure, Michael Turner has stolen his thunder, but anyone with eyes can tell you Norwood is a born playmaker. He's averaged over six yards a carry in his two years - on 201 attempts, so you know its no fluke. He showed elusiveness, a strong initial burst and fifth gear, and most importantly, more push in those skinny WR legs than I thought was possible with a willingness to run inside. Norwood will be a strong fantasy back if Turner misses any time, but the reason to go get Norwood now is what happens in 2010 when his rookie contract is up. Norwood is a home run hitter, and all we heard down the stretch last year was how Petrino wanted to get him more involved. Whatever team signs Norwood in 2010 should make good on that pledge.
Michael Bush, Oakland - Bush is worth a pickup on his talent/upside alone. RBs as big, fast, and athletic as the Louisville product rarely fall to the fourth round of the NFL draft, which only happened because Bush had to have a second surgery on his injured leg right before the draft. RBs of Bush's talent also rarely end up as third stringers, but that only happened because of Al Davis' speed fetish (the legal kind). It will take patience, maybe until Bush's rookie contract expires, but he is a cheap stash and hold player - definitely try to get him as a throw-in if you see him on a trade partner's roster.
Derrick Ward, New York Giants - All Ward did when he got the chance to start last year was average over 130 total yards a game and over five yards a carry. He proved himself to be a talented RB who can handle short yardage duty and catch passes out of the backfield, after showing good enough long speed to return a kickoff for a TD earlier in his career. Injuries did limit him to eight games for the second straight season, which dampened interest on the free agent market. Ward ended up re-signing with the Giants, so he'll likely play 2A to Ahmad Bradshaw's 2B - both waiting in the wings for a Brandon Jacobs injury, and likely getting enough work to pre-empt the injury, with a similar split between Jacobs and Bradshaw/Ward to what we saw in the playoffs. Ward could also have value as a part-time goal line back if Reuben Droughns is let go (he should be), and if he stays healthy this year, some team will give him a chance to do more in free agency next year. Ward's value continues to not reflect how well he played last year, and until it does, he's worth asking about in trade talks.
Warrick Dunn, Tampa Bay - Everyone seems to think the end of the line
has come for the 33-year old Dunn - except the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The team
gave him a two-year, $6 million deal, with a 2008 salary of $3 million. That
number clearly signals that team not only expects Dunn to play for them in 2008,
it says that they expect him to play a big role. While I'd love to give Earnest
Graham most of the credit for his breakout 2007, the lion's share of the praise
should go to the young offensive line that blew open holes for him. Dunn could
end up being a very solid RB2 if Graham goes down, and might even have some
value if he doesn't - Graham has still not showed up to OTAs, and if he starts
missing mandatory practices, the team may move forward without him.
Maurice Morris, Seattle - The forgotten man in Seattle continues to punch
in and do his job, and while no one seems to give him a chance in the Seahawk
RB race, you'd be smart to get him before people wise up to his better than
expected chances. Yes, Julius Jones got the $3 million signing bonus and four-year
deal in the offseason, but the team has not committed to him as a feature back.
Morris knows the offense, he's playing for a contract, and he has performed
when called on. In 2006, after Shaun Alexander broke his foot, Morris started
slow, but got into a groove and rattled of games of 30/128 and 21/124 in the
two weeks before Alexander came back. Last year, Morris averaged 4.5 yards a
carry on 140 carries, and busted four TDs of 29 yards or longer. He will force
a committee in Seattle this year.
BUY LOW and SELL HIGH
Jamal Lewis, Cleveland - If you own Jamal Lewis, you need to make a
serious assessment of whether your team can hang this year. The 2008 season
might not be his last viable year, but he'll turn 30 in 2009. Plus, he's running
on two surgically repaired knees, so it's hard to think his value will get any
higher. If you are in rebuilding mode, you have to trade Lewis as long as you
can get fair value for him. The Browns open with the tough 3-4 defenses of Dallas
and Pittsburgh, so it might be hard to deal him for fair value if your team
opens 0-2 and he struggles out of the gate. On the other hand, if you're gearing
up for a title run, Lewis is the best old RB to angle for unless the Edge or
Thomas Jones owners are desperate to deal. He got stronger as the season went
on, with a monster second half of almost 1000 total yards. Lewis even scored
as many receiving TDs in 2007 as he had in his entire career (two), and the
team used him liberally inside the five. The Browns rewarded him with a three-year
deal and $10 million guaranteed, so you know they are going to get their money's
worth. He should finish in the top-10 once again this year and help many fantasy
teams go deep in the playoffs if he's their RB2 or flex.
SELL HIGH
Ronnie Brown, Miami - The luster of Brown as a young stud on the rise dissipated as quickly as Cam Cameron's offense made him shine as the #1 fantasy RB (despite spending the first two weeks of the season mired in a committee). Brown is likely to find himself in a committee once again as he recovers from a torn ACL and Ricky Williams writes another chapter in his made for TV comeback after comeback story. There's also the issue of whether that Cameron offense inflated his numbers - if Willis McGahee (or Ray Rice) is a superstud in Baltimore, then chances are that Brown will at best will be the solid RB2 he was in 2006 down the line - AT BEST. Brown's rookie deal is up in 2009, and it's a young man's game at RB, so this might be the last chance to parlay him into a top-10 RB that will be a true cornerstone RB1 for the foreseeable future.
Darren McFadden, Oakland - Al Davis got his burner; now the coaching staff needs to figure out what to do with McFadden. They are playing him some at WR. Head Coach Lane Kiffin said Justin Fargas is the -best runner by far- in execution and decision making, so you know he'll get a big piece of the work - and he's not old or approaching free agency. Some may see McFadden as the next big thing at RB, but there's reason to have doubts - including his fumbling problems (15 in 2007), high cut build, and impatient nature as a speed back. If you can turn McFadden + into a true franchise back like Steven Jackson or Marshawn Lynch, do it.
Ryan Grant, Green Bay - Ryan Grant is for real. I'm not even that worried about a drop in production in the wake of Brett Favre's retirement. Aaron Rodgers can run the offense, maybe even more efficiently, if last year's Cowboys game performance is any indication. Brian Brohm also seems ideal for the Packers offense with its quick decisions and spread formations - the same offense that left gaping holes in defenses geared to stop the pass. Grant is also a clear notch above Brandon Jackson (even if Jackson did have the light bulb turn on in week 17) - so I don't see his long term job in immediate danger. Grant is a sell high because we don't know if he can hold up under a full season's workload, and because we saw vs. the Giants that he's not an uberstud who can create on his own with elusiveness or pass catching ability. Like Brown and McFadden, he is not a -sell at any cost- sell high, but you should definitely see if you can make him the centerpiece of a package for a top 5-10 RB while his value is very close to theirs.
LenDale White, Tennessee - Did LenDale White ever look that much better than Cedric Benson last year? White did a solid job on carried inside the five (six TDs in 13 shots) and was a fantasy force when he got 25+ carries, but there are at least 50 running backs in the NFL who could have done more with his carries, and that's being conservative. White is big and therefore tougher for one guy to bring down, but he's not really a bruiser, and his burst was very sporadic. He just hasn't stepped up to the level of dominance we thought possible when he left USC, and the addition of Chris Johnson will only threaten White's chances of getting those 25+ carry games - the only times he resembled a quality fantasy RB. White also averaged almost 25 more yards a game in wins than he did in losses, and the Titans seemed to get a lot of those 10 wins with smoke and mirrors. If they have a down year in what is probably the toughest division in the AFC, White could have so few big games that he's on your bench when they do come. Time to cut him loose for a fair price.
Julius Jones, Seattle - Even though he got the big bucks from the team and had an outburst of 198 yards and three TDs on the Seahawks home turf of Qwest Field in his rookie year (and another 100+ game in his only other game in Seattle), I just can't believe Jones will make better on this opportunity than he did on his ample chance in Dallas. Perhaps it's best to hold Jones through the Seahawks' Week 2 and 3 home games vs. divisional little sisters San Francisco and St. Louis for the best sell high opportunity going into the Week 4 bye, but after that I'd try my hardest to dump him. Right now, the wider sentiment seems to be down on Jones, so you might have to hold him into the season to get fair value anyway.
Selvin Young, Denver - He's the unquestioned starter, but how long does that ever last in Denver? Young has not broken out to the point that he can distance himself from the pack at RB on the Broncos roster, and his injury history at UT still looms. I like the bravado in his 2000 yard prediction, but Andre Hall looked just as good when he got his shot last year. We all know Shanny's history for trying to prove that he found the next big thing at RB. While Young benefited from that last year, and is still reaping the rewards of being the apple of Skeletor's eye at present, he could die by that same sword once Ryan Torain gets healthy. Seems like the only viable strategy with Denver RBs post-Portis has been -get while the gettin's good-, and hopefully the gettin's good in your league's trade market for Selvin Young right now. If not, wait around a bit, there'll be a moment during the season that it will be.
Earnest Graham, Tampa Bay - It's not a good idea to play chicken when your team just re-signed one of the greatest RBs in its history, who also happens to be a favorite of the head coach. Warrick Dunn got his shot the year after Errict Rhett tried to cash in on a limited run of success - it's ironic that he's back for Graham's try at the same gambit. Graham's track record is just not long enough to justify a big financial commitment to a running back who will be 29 before Super Bowl XLII. Graham could put up solid numbers once again if he comes to his senses and shows up to practices, but he faces Dunn and Michael Bennett nipping at his heels for carries, not to mention the possibility of a Cadillac Williams comeback and increased role for fullback B.J. Askew. If Graham starts a true holdout, the sell high window may slam shut, so get on those phones if you own him.
