Buy Low / Sell High (QBs)
Posted 5/28 by Sigmund Bloom, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
As training camps approach, Buy Low/Sell High will cover the league by position, focusing on dynasty value.
BUY LOW
Tom Brady, New England - I'm sure this is making some people scratch their heads - the wider perception has to be that Brady is the ultimate sell high at QB right now. It's hard to find anyone that doesn't see him as the No. 1 QB, although only a fool would think Brady will come anywhere near his record breaking 2007 TD total. A regression to the mean is expected, so Brady owners may error on the side of having Brady closer to "the pack" if they are looking to cash in on his stratospheric numbers. That's exactly why it's a good idea to see if his owner is willing to deal. The re-signing of Randy Moss means that Brady is still likely to finish 1st among QBs this year, and for that matter, over the duration of Moss's three year deal. If you have the depth at RB or WR to upgrade your QB to Brady, the price might be cheaper than you think.
Jake Delhomme, Carolina - All signs of Delhomme's progress in returning from Tommy John surgery point in the right direction, but it's still scary sounding, casting a shadow on his value. He was one of the best fantasy QBs before going down last year, and he gained a WR who he made a lot of money for in 2004, Muhsin Muhammad - and another weapon in DJ Hackett. Matt Moore, Delhomme's backup and possible heir, is still very cheap in dynasty leagues. He should be easy to pry to if he's his owner's QB2. Teams in need of a QB would be wise to put him at the top of the shopping list if they don't have much to spend.
Josh Johnson, Tampa Bay - If you haven't seen it yet, check out our
profile
of Josh Johnson over at Draftguys TV. Johnson can be very productive with
his feet, but he's not a running QB. His cerebral approach to the game should
click with Gruden. The Bucs have no other "QB of the future" on the roster,
so if Johnson can learn the offense, he'll get his shot. Even if you're agnostic
about Johnson's chances of hitting, it's hard to argue against his explosiveness.
Recent top running QBs did not have the benefit of being under an NFL QB's tutelage
in college while running a more challenging passing offense. Even though Johnson
is a "draft low" instead of a "buy low", his status as an undervalued player
in fantasy circles makes him worth a call-out
Vince Young, Tennessee - VY might be a tough buy low because so many of his owners are/were true believers (myself included), but it's worth a shot in the wake of his admission that he pondered retirement. He still ran for 395/3 last year, even though he was on a bum wheel for a good part of the year (he was on a 500/4 rushing pace before the injury), and he showed marked improvement as a passer. No QB's receivers let him down more than Young. While the team only added Alge Crumpler and rookie RB Chris Johnson to his meager arsenal of weapons, Young also gained new OC Mike Heimerdinger, who was the architect of the offense that yielded Steve McNair's three best years as a passer. His potential upside may make it difficult to get Young for a fair price, but now is the time to try.
Sage Rosenfels, Houston - Rosenfels is a good pickup if you have the roster space to carry him until the 2010 season. I believe he is one of the 32 best QBs in the league, and if he had signed a two year deal in '06 instead of a four year deal, some team would be bringing him in to at least compete to start this year. More than anything, I've been impressed with Rosenfels willingness to lay it all on the line and be a positive thinker on the field. He never plays afraid and definitely has the leadership skills to be a rudder for a team in transition. Yes, he'll be 32 in 2010, but he doesn't have the mileage of most QBs that age, and many NFL starting QBs are in their mid 30s. The Iowa State product also becomes a solid fantasy backup QB the moment Matt Schaub gets hurt, which seems like an inevitability the way Schaub plays.
SELL HIGH
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh - There are at least few owners in every league that think Roethlisberger is a budding superstar after his impressive 32-11 TD to INT ratio. While Big Ben is clearly the safest fantasy option out outside of the consensus top 5 to plug in your lineup, his 2007 TD numbers represent his ceiling, mostly due to his 18 TD passes in the big chunk of the red zone between the 20 and the 6 - only two less than Tom Brady. The Steelers are a run first team. In 2004 and 2005, they were dead last in pass attempts. They were 31st in the league in pass attempts per game last year, returning to their comfort zone after an uncharacteristic 2006. Opposing defenses teed off on Roethlisberger that year, and the Steelers certainly won't leave their franchise QB hanging out there like a piñata if they can help it. Adding Rashard Mendenhall to the mix can only tilt the scales even more towards the run. Try to turn Ben into one of the top 5 or see if a McNabb or Hasselbeck owner will give up a cornerstone at another position in a swap.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay - If Rodgers is your best QB heading into 2008, maybe you should hold him, and try to draft Brian Brohm if you haven't already. In fact, if you were able to snag Brohm, trading Rodgers becomes unnecessary, because you've got the hedge against his injury, and could well end up with two starters in 2010. If Rodgers is your #2 behind a top-eight starter, it's time to deal him. The injury record speaks for itself - a broken foot suffered in very limited action in '06 that landed Rodgers on injured reserve, and a pulled hammy suffered in practice the week after his excellent performance vs. Dallas that kept him out of action for a month. Trading Rodgers now may cause you to miss out on the jackpot if he can stay healthy because he does have a great set of weapons, and can clearly run the offense with efficiency and skill, but not trading him before an injury strikes will leave you with a very uncertain and untradeable commodity. He's a free agent in two years, and no team will break the bank for a player that can't finish a season. It's possible that Brohm could play so well during a Rodgers absence that he doesn't give the job back - he's a great fit in that offense. If you can get the "possible stud in the making" price for Rodgers, don't hesitate to pull the trigger.
Jason Campbell, Washington - It's too early to give up on Campbell as an NFL QB, but it seems like he'll never be more than a middling fantasy QB. Todd Collins did have the advantage of being with Al Saunders for most of his career, but there's no doubt that the offense ran much more smoothly with him at the helm than when Campbell was in. Campbell is going to gain some young weapons at WR (including a sorely needed big receiver in Malcolm Kelly), but he also gains yet another new offensive coordinator, and yet another new system. He's got solid tools, and should be a starter in the league for a while, but he also relies on his arm and athleticism more than his command of the offense. Chances are, there won't be a time in Campbell's career that you *want* him to be your fantasy starter, so it's time to shop him in case there's someone else in your league that thinks he might be on the verge of a breakout.
Matt Leinart, Arizona - All the visions of big numbers from Leinart because he was throwing to Fitz and Boldin went poof when WhisenGrimm decided to go with the dreaded QBBC early in 2007. The Cards offense came alive when Kurt Warner was at the helm, which only led one to believe that Leinart was just not "getting it" in second year as a starter. Warner's extension talks have quieted, but it seems clear that the team had a better chance to win with Warner (who actually stayed healthy) and it also seems clear that Whisenhunt is still not pleased with Leinart's off the field behavior. The team was willing to bench Leinart last year, what should make us think that they won't be willing to do it this year? If Leinart struggles again, his value will evaporate, and from what we've seen, his upside is not high enough to absorb that risk going into the 2008 season.
Derek Anderson, Cleveland - I am not one of the chorus who thinks Anderson is a one year wonder. His decision making and knowing exactly how to get the most out of his big targets are not the kind of things that go away over an offseason, and his only real blowup down the stretch was in ridiculous wind conditions. Still, if you are not relying on Anderson as your #1, it is time to at least see what he can fetch on the open market. It's hard to see him eclipsing last year's numbers, so while his value may become more stable with a good year, upping his value, the more optimistic owners about his future probably already have his value about where it will be if he repeats his top 10 finish from 2007.
