Every April, avid NFL fans pore through scouting reports and articles detailing the prospects who have declared for the NFL draft. Fantasy owners are among those avid fans, and most of us take a lively interest in the outcome of draft day, especially at the offensive skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end). Each and every year, there are highly touted prospects that land on teams where they appear to have solid prospects to contribute measurably in their first season. This year is no different than any other, with players like Reggie Bush, Joseph Addai, and Vernon Davis joining teams where they are expected to make an immediate impact. The question for we fantasy owners is this: how big of an impact can we reasonably expect? For a player like Reggie Bush (who is listed among the top 20 fantasy prospects regardless of position by at least one non-Footballguys.com fantasy observer), expectations run very high.

For the fantasy owner, a lot of analysis is available about rookies, especially from the dynasty-league and keeper-league perspective. But what about a fantasy owner who plays in a redraft league, one in which only this coming year (and no other year) is of concern? This article is specifically for owners looking for a redraft-league perspective on NFL rookies.

We'll engage the question of rookie prospects from a bird's eye view - beginning with a review of all first- and second-round selections at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end during the drafts from 1998-2005. While an occasional late-round selection or even undrafted rookie may make an impact (Colt Dominic Rhodes still holds the NFL record for rushing yards by an undrafted rookie, with 233/1104/9 rushing and 34/224/0 receiving during his inaugural campaign), these players are generally unheralded and not in the fantasy mix at draft time - therefore, the focus here is on the players most likely to be "touted", those selected in the first two rounds of the NFL draft.

At the various positions, the rookies are grouped according to their first-year productivity - was each draftee among the top 10, top 20, or top 30 in fantasy points (using standard Footballguys.com scoring) at their position during their rookie campaign, or did they fall outside of this range? Later in the article, we'll look at particular examples from each position - both players who lived up to the hype, and those that did not. Finally, a complete list of players included in the sample is presented by position for the reader to consider on their own.

Overall 1st- and 2nd- Round, Rookie Productivity, 1998-2005

Almost always, when someone writes about an incoming class's (or a particular rookie player's) prospects in the NFL, there is always a discussion of the speed of the pro game and the complexity of the offenses at the NFL level. It is no easy thing for a rookie to "get up to speed" and produce at the NFL level in his first year - as the below graph will illustrate. At each position, the number of 1st- and 2nd-round prospects drafted during the period 1998-2005 who ended up in the top 10, top 20, or top 30 in total fantasy points by season's end at their particular position is listed, followed by the total number of players drafted at that position during the stated time-frame.

Interpreting the above graph by position

Quarterbacks

Twenty-eight players were drafted at QB during the first two rounds during 1998-2005. Out of those 28, 1 player - Peyton Manning - was a top 10 fantasy QB by year's end (he was 9th in fantasy points during his rookie campaign). 3 rookie QBs finished among the top 20 during that stretch, and 3 finished among the top 30. 21 rookie QBs finished outside the top 30 at their position in fantasy points scored. That means 3.5% of rookie QBs were what most fantasy owners would consider a solid, starting-caliber QB; roughly 10.7% were worthy of consideration as a fantasy backup/bye-week player, and a further 10.7% fit into the "desperation" starter category; while 75% did not belong on a redraft league roster.

Running Backs

Forty-three players were drafted at RB in the sample. Out of those, 5 players were top 10 fantasy running backs; 3 were among the top 20 in fantasy points at year's end; 8 managed to land in the top 30; while 27 draftees finished lower than #30 during 1998-2005. Speaking in statistical terms, 11.6% of the draftees were top 10 finishers at their position (among the fantasy elite at RB); and another 6.9% were worthy of a starting slot (18.6% were solid fantasy starters). A further 18.6% of the sample was productive enough to qualify as back-up fantasy running backs, while 62.8% fell outside (many well outside, see the complete list at the end of this article) the top producers at their position.

Wide Receivers

Sixty-nine wide receivers were drafted in the first- or second-rounds during the sample period. 2 of the draftees were elite, top 10 finishers at their position; 2 were exceptional, top 20 receivers; and an additional 4 were among the solid, starting caliber-receivers in their first season. Those raw numbers translate to 2.8% of draftees among the top 10; 2.8% among the top 20; and 5.8% among the top 30 wide receivers, for a grand total of 11.6% of rookie wide receivers who made the grade as (at minimum) starting-caliber wide receivers during 1998-2005. 89.4% of the wide receivers drafted in the sample were outside (again, many were well outside) starting caliber at their position during their rookie campaign.

Tight Ends

Twenty-two tight ends were selected in the sample, of whom 2 finished among the top-10 (starting caliber) fantasy tight ends; 5 were top 20 at year's end; and 5 managed to land among the top 30; leaving 10 rookie tight ends well outside the range of fantasy roster spots. 9% were starting caliber at their position, while a further 22.7% would have been worth a back-up/bye week slot on a fantasy roster - leaving 68.3% of draftees at the tight end position either outside or well outside of consideration for a typical fantasy squad.

Further Commentary on Rookie Prospects in General

One of the reasons that the move from the college ranks to the pro ranks is such a leap for the rookies is due to the concentration of talent. Looking just at NCAA Division I-A college football there are 119 football teams in play. Other collegiate divisions and other pro football leagues (the Canadian Football League, the Arena Leagues) also provide talent to the NFL. Drawing from all of these sources, the NFL fields 32 teams - obviously, at the NFL level, every player on every team is a top athlete in his own right. Additionally, each of the NFL teams has several years of draftees stockpiled on any particular roster - the cream of each draft (+ free agents) reaching back several years. When every player on the opposing defense is a topflight talent, and most of them much more experienced than any particular rookie prospect, there is a new level of challenge facing the youngsters (even those from the best collegiate programs). They were the "stud" players on their college squad, and generally outclassed most of the opposition on the collegiate level - but that is true no longer once a rookie enters the NFL ranks.

This is what NFL observers mean when they talk about "the speed of the pro game".

Secondly, most pro offenses are vastly more complex when it comes to nomenclature and play execution/route running than those found at the collegiate level. After all, pro athletes devote vast amounts of time in the film room; on conditioning in the weight room and with physical trainers; and many long and rigorous hours on the practice field. No collegiate program can compare to the intensity of focus that an NFL team brings to the football field. There is simply a vast amount for any rookie player to absorb - and a new level of intensity must be reached for even the most physically gifted athletes to become proficient pros. Many highly regarded talents (for example, Detroit's Charles Rogers) have been unable to discipline themselves to the extent necessary to excel at the NFL level.

This necessary intensity of focus and personal discipline, exemplified by truly elite pros like Peyton Manning, Jerry Rice and Curtis Martin, is not an easy thing to attain and, then, maintain.

Concluding Thoughts by Position

Quarterbacks

Looking through the list of rookies successes and busts at quarterback, the item that most clearly stands out is just how exceptional Peyton Manning was as a rookie. No other rookie QB was in the top 15 during the sample period, and many fine pros like Donovan McNabb and Daunte Culpepper weren't anywhere close to starting caliber in their inaugural seasons. Clearly, fantasy owners in redraft leagues would be wise to avoid rookie QBs in almost every circumstance - there just aren't many Peyton Mannings out there, but there are a lot of busts like Ryan Leaf and Akili Smith.

Running Backs

It is a fantasy axiom that, of all rookies, RBs are the best bet to be a fantasy success in their first season. That is certainly shown by the sample in this article, as RBs were most likely to be solid starters in their first season. The select few who broke into the top 10 during their rookie season (including players like Edgerrin James and LaDainian Tomlinson) made the owners who drafted them look like geniuses. However, there are a lot of current blue-chip running backs (Shaun Alexander and Larry Johnson) who were limited during their first campaign - and several clear-cut busts like Curtis Enis. One thing is clear - even the most highly ranked rookie RBs can easily disappoint in their inaugural season, and precious few reach elite status during their inaugural campaign.

Wide Receivers

Another fantasy axiom is that rookie WRs are almost always not huge producers of points during their first season. That was certainly borne out by this sample, as even studs like Santana Moss and Plaxico Burress (to cite 2 examples) failed to make fantasy impacts during their rookie campaigns. Randy Moss is the great exception that proves the rule - he broke the mold by finishing first in fantasy points at his position during his rookie season (Anquan Boldin was outstanding as well, winding up 4th during his first year). Guys like Moss and Boldin don't come along every year, obviously - it takes a special combination of athletic talent and favorable circumstances for a rookie WR to explode in his first season.

Tight Ends

Much like their fellows at wide receiver, tight ends that excel as rookies are pretty rare. Jeremy Shockey (who finished 3rd among TEs during his rookie campaign) was expected to be a force in the NFL - Cameron Cleeland (who was 2nd in his rookie season) was something of a surprise. As at other positions, there are several topflight talents entering 2006 who were non-factors in their debut years (Todd Heap and Ben Watson stick out among the group in this sample).

The Raw Data

Find below all of the players included in the sample (1st- and 2nd- round players at QB, RB, WR, and TE selected during NFL drafts from 1998-2005). After each player's name is their round of selection (1 or 2) and their ranking in total fantasy points at their position by the end of their rookie campaign. Special thanks to Footballguy Dr. Doug Drinen for providing the database and raw data that made this article possible.