Ultimate Strength of Schedule

By Clayton Gray, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

The advantages offered by the Ultimate Strength of Schedule (USOS) when compared to traditional SOS displays are numerous and include (but are not limited to) the following:

Fantasy points driven
Fantasy football is all about scoring fantasy points, so USOS is based on fantasy points.
Removed bias of schedule
Consider the following defenses: Defense A faced the top 16 offenses while Defense B faced the worst 16 offenses. If both defenses allowed opposing QBs to average 300 fantasy points last season, are they equally strong? Of course not; Defense A is far superior as they faced much better offenses. This bias of schedule has been removed from USOS.
Positional breakdown
If you are looking for a RB, it’s much more relevant to see SOS data for RBs (rather than simply rushing data).
Comparison of 2006 schedule to 2005 schedule
On the surface, a team with an easy schedule at RB should see better RB stats this year. Good schedule = bigger numbers than the year before, right? It seems logical. However, sometimes it's not enough to say that a team has an easy schedule. What if they had an equally easy schedule the season before? Equal schedule = similar numbers as the year before. USOS looks at the differences in schedule from this year compared to last season. An easier set of opponents this year points to increased production. A more difficult set of opponents this season points to decreased production.

Explanation of USOS Tables

Below, you will see tables for each positions USOS. Here is a brief explanation of the make-up of these tables.

The “Tm” Column

This is simply the NFL team.

The Values

Each value in the table is the expected number of fantasy points on a per game basis.

The Coloring of the Values

The red values indicate that the team has one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) best values in that column. Red was chosen because the team could heat up statistically. The blue values indicate that the team has one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) worst values in that column. Blue was chosen because the team could cool down statistically.

Red is a hot team with a good schedule
Blue is a cold team with a bad schedule

The “2006” Column

This is the average expected fantasy points allowed by each team’s opponents for this season.

The “%ch” Column

This is the percentage of change between the 2006 SOS and the 2005 SOS. A positive value points to an easier SOS than last year while a negative value points to a more difficult SOS compared to last season.

The “Easy” Column

This is the number of easy opponents each team will face this season. An easy opponent is defined as one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) worst defenses. Obviously, it is preferred to have players with as many easy games as possible.

The “Tough” Column

This is the number of tough opponents each team will face this season. A tough opponent is defined as one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) best defenses. Obviously, it is preferred to have players with as few tough games as possible.

The “First5” Column

This is the SOS for the first five weeks of the NFL season (note that some teams only play four games in this time frame). This value is useful to determine how players should be expected to open the season. Players with low values could easily stumble out of the gate.

The “Lst5” Column

This is similar to the “First5” column except that it is the SOS for the final five weeks of the NFL season. This value is useful to determine how players should be expected to end the season. This is a critical stretch of games as your fantasy playoffs take place here. Players with high values here are likely to perform very well during your fantasy playoffs.

The “W1” through “W17” Columns

These values are the expected strength of each team’s opponent for that particular week (W5 is Week 5, etc). This is very useful when searching for backups for your stud players. The key is to locate players with easy opponents when your star is on a bye.

Ultimate Strength of Schedule - Defensive Backs

Team	06sos	%ch	Easy	Tough	1st5	Lst5	W1	W2	W3	W4	W5	W6	W7	W8	W9	W10	W11	W12	W13	W14	W15	W16	W17
Ari	30.3	-2.4%	3	8	28.9	29.1	28.1	27.4	32.4	26.7	30.0	27.9	33.2	38.4	-	36.0	31.2	28.6	32.4	27.4	25.8	28.1	31.8
Atl	32.3	1.5%	7	3	32.2	33.1	32.8	28.3	33.5	34.2	-	35.2	29.2	29.9	31.2	29.5	33.9	33.5	30.9	28.3	36.0	32.8	37.3
Bal	30.0	-1.1%	1	3	29.7	29.8	28.3	33.2	29.5	31.8	25.8	32.8	-	33.5	29.9	31.1	26.7	29.2	29.9	30.0	29.5	29.2	30.3
Buf	31.6	0.7%	4	3	30.5	32.2	31.5	34.8	29.6	28.6	27.9	31.2	31.5	-	38.4	30.6	32.1	28.8	31.8	29.6	34.8	31.1	33.9
Car	31.2	-3.1%	6	5	29.3	32.4	26.7	28.6	28.3	33.5	29.5	33.9	29.9	36.0	-	28.3	32.4	30.9	37.3	35.2	29.2	26.7	33.5
Chi	31.8	1.5%	5	5	31.2	31.8	38.4	31.2	28.6	27.4	30.3	34.2	-	28.1	34.8	35.2	29.6	31.5	28.6	32.4	28.3	31.2	38.4
Cin	30.6	-0.5%	3	3	30.0	30.5	30.0	29.5	29.2	31.5	-	28.3	32.8	26.7	33.9	31.8	33.5	29.5	33.9	33.2	30.6	25.8	29.2
Cle	30.6	-2.4%	3	3	32.6	30.7	33.5	29.9	33.9	33.2	32.8	-	25.8	29.6	31.8	26.7	29.2	29.9	30.0	29.2	33.9	28.3	32.1
Dal	32.2	0.3%	6	3	32.0	32.8	28.8	30.9	-	31.1	37.3	32.1	35.2	32.8	30.9	34.2	30.6	28.3	35.2	33.5	26.7	37.3	31.2
Den	31.0	-3.3%	2	2	32.0	30.3	32.4	30.0	31.5	-	33.9	33.2	29.5	30.6	29.2	33.2	31.8	30.0	27.4	31.8	34.2	29.9	28.1
Det	31.3	-2.9%	5	7	31.0	32.5	27.4	27.9	38.4	32.4	28.6	30.3	29.6	-	26.7	28.1	34.2	34.8	31.5	28.6	38.4	27.9	36.0
GB	30.9	0.4%	4	6	32.4	29.1	27.9	33.5	31.2	37.3	32.4	-	34.8	34.2	30.3	28.6	31.5	27.4	29.6	28.1	31.2	28.6	27.9
Hou	31.8	1.9%	4	2	33.4	31.2	37.3	30.6	30.9	34.8	-	36.0	28.8	31.1	35.2	28.8	30.3	29.6	33.2	31.1	31.5	30.6	29.5
Ind	31.6	-1.2%	4	2	31.4	31.3	35.2	32.1	28.8	29.6	31.1	-	30.9	25.8	31.5	30.3	36.0	37.3	31.1	28.8	29.9	32.1	34.8
Jac	32.0	3.0%	4	0	31.3	31.6	36.0	29.2	30.6	30.9	29.6	-	32.1	37.3	31.1	32.1	35.2	30.3	34.8	30.6	31.1	31.5	30.0
KC	30.6	-3.6%	3	6	29.5	31.4	29.9	25.8	-	28.1	34.2	29.2	31.8	27.4	32.4	34.8	33.2	25.8	29.5	33.9	31.8	33.2	28.8
Mia	30.7	-1.1%	1	3	30.8	30.2	29.2	30.3	31.1	32.1	31.5	29.6	38.4	-	27.9	30.0	28.6	31.2	28.8	31.5	30.3	29.6	30.6
Min	31.7	-1.6%	4	4	30.6	31.9	30.9	32.8	27.9	30.3	31.2	-	27.4	31.5	28.1	38.4	34.8	34.2	27.9	31.2	29.6	38.4	32.4
NE	30.9	1.2%	3	4	30.1	31.6	30.3	29.6	25.8	29.9	34.8	-	30.3	28.6	30.6	29.6	38.4	27.9	31.2	34.8	32.1	28.8	31.1
NO	31.5	1.0%	5	5	31.1	32.6	29.5	38.4	26.7	32.8	28.3	37.3	-	33.9	28.3	29.2	29.9	26.7	28.1	36.0	30.9	35.2	32.8
NYG	31.7	-2.2%	5	5	31.5	34.1	30.6	37.3	27.4	-	30.9	26.7	36.0	28.3	32.1	27.9	28.8	31.1	36.0	32.8	37.3	33.5	30.9
NYJ	31.5	-0.1%	3	3	30.5	33.0	31.1	31.5	30.3	30.6	28.8	34.8	31.2	29.5	-	31.5	27.9	32.1	38.4	30.3	28.6	34.8	33.2
Oak	30.1	-4.6%	2	5	30.8	30.8	31.8	33.9	-	29.5	28.1	25.8	34.2	29.2	27.4	25.8	30.0	31.8	32.1	29.9	32.4	30.0	29.6
Phi	32.2	-0.2%	6	3	34.0	32.3	32.1	35.2	28.1	38.4	36.0	33.5	28.3	28.8	-	30.9	31.1	30.6	32.8	30.9	35.2	36.0	26.7
Pit	30.8	-3.5%	4	4	31.3	30.9	34.8	28.8	29.9	-	31.8	30.0	26.7	33.2	25.8	33.5	29.5	33.9	28.3	29.5	32.8	33.9	29.9
SD	30.2	-1.7%	2	5	31.8	29.5	33.2	31.1	-	33.9	29.2	28.1	30.0	32.4	29.5	29.9	25.8	33.2	30.3	25.8	30.0	27.4	34.2
SF	31.6	-3.6%	5	5	33.4	31.8	34.2	32.4	37.3	30.0	33.2	31.8	-	27.9	28.6	31.2	27.4	32.4	33.5	38.4	27.4	34.2	25.8
Sea	31.2	-5.0%	5	6	32.1	29.6	31.2	34.2	35.2	27.9	-	32.4	28.6	30.0	33.2	32.4	28.1	38.4	25.8	34.2	28.1	31.8	28.3
StL	30.6	-3.9%	3	7	31.5	31.0	25.8	28.1	34.2	31.2	38.4	27.4	-	31.8	30.0	27.4	32.8	28.1	34.2	27.9	33.2	30.9	28.6
TB	31.4	1.9%	5	4	31.7	28.1	33.9	26.7	32.8	-	33.5	29.9	37.3	35.2	33.5	32.8	30.9	36.0	29.2	26.7	27.9	29.5	27.4
Ten	32.1	3.2%	5	1	32.6	30.7	29.6	31.8	34.8	36.0	30.6	30.9	-	32.1	28.8	33.9	37.3	35.2	30.6	32.1	28.8	30.3	31.5
Was	32.6	-0.4%	7	4	32.2	33.0	28.6	36.0	32.1	28.8	35.2	31.1	30.6	-	36.0	37.3	28.3	32.8	26.7	37.3	33.5	32.4	35.2