Mike Herman - The Wide Receiver Matrix

A go-to wide receiver on a high-powered pass-oriented offense is fantasy gold. But how do all the rest of the receivers compare to each other at the end of the year? Have you ever asked any of the following questions:

Which is better: a WR1 from a bad team or a WR2 from a good team?
How do wide receivers from a run-oriented offense compare?
When is a WR3 a viable fantasy candidate?
How do wide-receivers-by-committee fare?

Based on data from 2001 through 2005, following are the average year end fantasy rankings for wide receivers based on their situation. The numbers have been interpolated and extrapolated in order to fill in categories with no supporting data, and to "fix" abnormalities.

Wide Receiver Year End Fantasy Ranks (a.k.a. The WR Matrix)

Dist Patt	Off Focus	Overall Team Offensive Grade
		A			B			C			D			F
		WR1	WR2	WR3	WR1	WR2	WR3	WR1	WR2	WR3	WR1	WR2	WR3	WR1	WR2	WR3
Go-to Guy	Pass	1	35	60	3	40	68	5	45	76	7	50	84	9	55	92
	Balance	2	45	66	6	51	74	10	57	82	14	63	90	18	69	98
	Run	3	55	72	8	62	80	13	69	88	18	76	96	23	83	104
Duo	Pass	6	10	67	10	14	75	14	18	83	18	22	91	22	26	99
	Balance	12	17	73	17	22	81	22	27	89	27	32	97	32	37	105
	Run	20	25	79	25	30	87	30	35	95	35	40	103	40	45	111
Typical	Pass	8	30	53	13	35	61	18	40	69	23	45	77	28	50	85
	Balance	13	42	62	18	47	70	23	52	78	28	57	86	33	62	94
	Run	18	54	71	23	59	79	28	64	87	33	69	95	38	74	103
Comm	Pass	20	26	44	29	35	53	38	44	62	47	53	71	56	62	80
	Balance	26	32	50	33	39	57	42	48	66	51	57	75	60	66	84
	Run	32	38	56	37	43	61	46	52	70	55	61	79	64	70	88

Key

Dist Patt - The distribution pattern categorizes how the passing yardage is distributed among the team's players (including TEs and RBs)
- Go-to Guy: The WR1 gets over 35% of the yardage and WR2 gets at least 20% less or is under 20% total.
- Duo: WR1 and WR2 are within about 5% of each other and are in the mid 20s to low 30s percentage. WR3 percentage is under 10%.
- Typical: The top three receivers are 30%, 20%, 10% plus/minus several percent each.
- Committee: WR3 is within 10% of WR1
Off Focus - The offensive focus compares the number of running plays vs. the number of passing plays.
- Pass: Team runs the ball under 45% of the time
- Balanced: Team runs the ball 45% to 49.9% of the time
- Run: Team runs the ball at least 50% of the time
Overall Team Offensive Grade is based on the team's total offensive fantasy scoring from all positions using FBG standard scoring.

Example of how to use this information

If you think the Carolina Panthers will have a "Go-to Guy" receiver distribution, balanced play calling, and an overall B-grade offense this year, then Steve Smith would project as the #6 fantasy receiver for the year, Keyshawn Johnson would be #51, and Keary Colbert #74.

2005 The Actual Numbers

Tm	PsYd	RA	PA	%R	Gr	WR1	Yds	%	Rk	WR2	Yds	%	Rk	WR3	Yds	%	Rk
Ari	4437	360	670	35.0	C+	Fitzgerald	1409	31.8	2	Boldin	1402	31.6	9	B. Johnson	432	9.7	81
Atl	2679	531	451	54.1	C	Finneran	611	22.8	55	Jenkins	508	19.0	60	R. White	446	16.6	64
Bal	3088	452	562	44.6	D	Mason	1073	34.7	24	M. Clayton	471	15.3	61	Hymes	132	4.3	107
Buf	2515	428	459	48.3	D	Moulds	816	32.4	35	Evans	743	29.5	29	Reed	449	17.9	73
Car	3271	487	449	52.0	B-	Smith	1563	47.8	1	Proehl	441	13.5	62	Colbert	282	8.6	92
Chi	2002	488	418	53.9	F+	Muhammad	750	37.5	37	Gage	346	17.3	82	Berrian	246	12.3	102
Cin	3820	459	538	46.0	A	C. Johnson	1432	37.5	4	Houshmandzadeh	956	25.0	14	Henry	422	11.0	51
Cle	3053	395	498	44.2	D	A. Bryant	1009	33.0	25	B. Edwards	512	16.8	59	Northcutt	441	14.4	70
Dal	3341	521	500	51.0	C	Glenn	1136	34.0	12	K. Johnson	839	25.1	28	Crayton	341	10.2	83
Den	3227	542	465	53.8	B	R. Smith	1105	34.2	16	Lelie	770	23.9	41	C. Adams	203	6.3	114
Det	2848	404	520	43.7	D	R. Williams	687	24.1	30	Vines	417	14.6	87	Williams	350	12.3	91
GB	3766	398	626	38.9	C-	Driver	1221	32.4	13	Chatman	549	14.6	46	Ferguson	366	9.7	74
Hou	2237	437	449	49.3	D-	A. Johnson	688	30.8	47	Gaffney	492	22.0	67	Bradford	436	19.5	54
Ind	4096	465	515	47.4	A	Harrison	1146	28.0	8	Wayne	1055	25.8	21	Stokley	543	13.3	69
Jac	3190	502	487	50.8	C+	J. Smith	1023	32.1	19	Wilford	681	21.3	34	R. Williams	445	13.9	85
KC	3810	520	507	50.6	A-	Kennison	1102	28.9	18	S. Parker	533	14.0	57	Hall	436	11.4	66
Mia	3300	444	556	44.4	C	Chambers	1118	33.9	7	Booker	686	20.8	43	Welker	434	13.2	86
Min	3146	381	510	42.8	D+	T. Taylor	604	19.2	44	M. Robinson	515	16.4	49	Williamson	372	11.8	79
NE	4120	439	564	43.8	B+	Branch	998	24.2	22	Givens	738	17.9	42	Tr. Brown	466	11.3	71
NO	3343	423	553	43.3	D+	Stallworth	945	28.3	20	Horn	654	19.6	56	Hakim	489	14.6	68
NYG	3578	469	558	45.7	A-	Burress	1214	33.9	11	Toomer	684	19.1	33	T. Carter	186	5.2	112
NYJ	2642	384	470	45.0	F	L. Coles	845	32.0	31	McCareins	713	27.0	45	Cotchery	251	9.5	106
Oak	3582	361	591	37.9	C-	R. Moss	1005	28.1	15	Porter	942	26.3	26	Gabriel	554	15.5	53
Phi	3677	365	620	37.1	C	Owens	763	20.8	32	R. Brown	571	15.5	48	G. Lewis	561	15.3	65
Pit	2926	549	379	59.2	B-	Ward	975	33.3	10	Randle El	558	19.1	52	C. Wilson	451	15.4	84
SD	3495	465	526	46.9	A-	McCardell	917	26.2	17	Parker	725	20.7	39	Caldwell	352	10.1	88
SF	1898	428	389	52.4	F-	B. Lloyd	733	38.6	36	Battle	363	19.1	72	J. Morton	288	15.2	101
Sea	3458	519	474	52.3	A+	Engram	778	22.5	40	Jurevicius	694	20.1	23	D. Jackson	482	13.9	63
StL	4036	380	599	38.8	B	Holt	1331	33.0	6	K. Curtis	801	19.8	27	Bruce	525	13.0	58
TB	2890	457	487	48.4	D+	Galloway	1287	44.5	5	M. Clayton	372	12.9	94	Hilliard	282	9.8	98
Ten	3597	397	594	40.1	C-	Bennett	738	20.5	38	B. Jones	299	8.3	89	R. Williams	299	8.3	90
Was	3106	525	481	52.2	B-	S. Moss	1483	47.7	3	Patten	217	7.0	115	Thrash	194	6.2	117

2004 The Actual Numbers

Tm	PsYd	RA	PA	%R	Gr	WR1	Yds	%	Rk	WR2	Yds	%	Rk	WR3	Yds	%	Rk
Ari	2882	475	533	47.1	D	Fitzgerald	780	27.1	30	Boldin	623	21.6	59	Johnson	537	18.6	95
Atl	2412	524	395	57.0	C	Price	575	23.8	50	D. White	370	15.3	80	Finneran	258	10.7	124
Bal	2312	491	465	51.4	F	Taylor	421	18.2	93	K. Johnson	373	16.1	89	Hymes	323	14.0	88
Buf	2817	483	461	51.2	C	Moulds	1043	37.0	26	Evans	843	29.9	24	Reed	153	5.4	125
Car	3643	422	536	44.1	B	Muhammad	1405	38.6	1	Colbert	754	20.7	36	Proehl	497	13.6	79
Chi	2192	430	471	47.7	F-	Terrell	699	31.9	52	Wade	481	21.9	74	Berrian	225	10.3	96
Cin	3301	437	536	44.9	B-	C. Johnson	1274	38.6	9	Houshmandzadeh	978	29.6	31	Washington	378	11.5	73
Cle	2824	441	439	50.1	D	Northcutt	806	28.5	46	A. Bryant	546	19.3	38	A. Davis	416	14.7	77
Dal	3428	449	519	46.4	C	K. Johnson	981	28.6	27	Glenn	400	11.7	78	Q. Morgan	260	7.6	66
Den	3999	534	521	50.6	A-	R. Smith	1144	28.6	15	Lelie	1084	27.1	23	Watts	385	9.6	82
Det	2916