Mike Herman - The Things Change Checklist

Things change. That's not a stunning revelation; however it is something that gets overlooked at times. This is as true in fantasy football, as it is anywhere else in life. The fantasy stars of last year will not necessarily be the fantasy stars of the upcoming year. It is documented that many players typically do not repeat last year's performance. Many predictions for the forthcoming year do not reflect that, and merely re-list last year's results with some minor tweaking. When contemplating an individual player's prospect for the upcoming year, it's easy to lock in one or two key factors and forget about the dozens of other pieces of the puzzle that could impact his production. The following checklist is an attempt to outline the wide range of factors that could lead to a player's results varying from last year's. It obviously only addresses items known heading into the season, and does not account for factors that will invariably arise during the regular season.

Situational Changes

Promoted from backup to starter (or demoted the other direction).
Promoted from WR2 to WR1 (or demoted the other direction). Do they have the talent to handle being the top receiver, or were they better off as a WR2?
Promoted from part of a RBBC to feature back (or demoted the other direction). This is most commonly seen with running backs, but it can also apply to other positions.
Have they changed positions entirely? This is not very common among veteran players, although occasionally one will change from defense to offense, such as DB to WR or vise versa. It's more common among rookies, such as college QBs that have been or are being converted to other or multiple positions.
Do they have an increased or decreased workload on other areas? For example, will a WR, RB, or DB also be returning kickoffs or punts? Will the place kicker also be handling kickoffs?

Surrounding Player Changes
Changed teams. Is the new team better, similar, or worse?
Have there been significant changes to the offensive line (for better or worse)? No change can often have a positive effect for offensive lines, since they need time to learn to work together as a unit.
Has the run blocking changed at the FB or TE position?
Has the passing or running game changed? Success of one often helps the other one improve.
Has the defense changed? A good defense might allow the offense to run more. A bad defense might force the offense into a passing shoot-out, or set them up to get some garbage time points.
Is a player being pushed by the backup? Will they respond by improving or wind up being pushed out?
Is there a high-priced early-round draft choice that's poised to take over the job?

Game Plan Changes
Has the coaching changed? New head coach or offensive coordinator?
Has a player's positional coach (often a mentor role) been added, deleted, or changed?
Will there be a new offensive system to learn? Has the player worked in a similar system before? Is the player suited to the system? How complex is the new system, and how much learning curve might be expected?
Is there an indication that the team wants to focus more on running or passing this year? Judgment call: is it legitimate or just coachspeak?
Is there an indication that the team wants to shift focus in the red zone? Judgment call: is it legitimate or just coachspeak?
Will a RB become more (or less) involved in the passing game?
Is a player being taught/forced to change his style or tendencies (e.g. a scrambling QB being pressed to stay in the pocket)?

Physical Changes
Is the player getting old? Have they reached the typical age threshold of effectiveness for their position? Is he one of the exceptions to the "rule"?
Are they coming off an injury from late last year or the offseason? Is it one of those that take two years to truly recover from?
Have they recently picked up one of those nagging minor injuries?
Do they have any key team mates with injury concerns?
Have they altered their usual offseason workout routine? Are they in much better (or worse) shape than last year?

Mental Changes
Are they in a contract year and thinking about money?
Did they just sign a big contract?
Are they holding out during camp/preseason?
Are they dealing with personal or legal issues?
Do they have a renewed focus? Have they been putting in overtime studying the playbook and game films?
Team morale: what's the focus level of their surrounding team mates? It can be infectious (good or bad).

Miscellaneous Changes
Does the schedule this year look significantly easier or harder than last year's?
Is there potential carryover from the end of last year? Did they end last year on a hot streak (and was that just luck or had they finally got it together)? Did they end last year in slump (and was that just luck or had the opponents finally figured them out)?
Are they in the coach's dog house for some reason? Is the coach forceful enough to do something about it? Is the player talented enough that the coach probably has to play them regardless?
Has the player done something to gain (or lose) the respect of his team mates?

If you were looking for lots of questions and no answers, you should now be set for awhile. When assessing and projecting a player's potential for the forthcoming season, keep the above list of questions in mind. You may want to look at all the players on an NFL team at one time, since many of the questions involve the surrounding team. After answering all these little questions, the potential big picture for the upcoming year will hopefully start to reveal itself.