I have had several requests lately for two things, both of which fit nicely together here. PART A: Which players have posted the highest scoring fantasy seasons (by position)? PART B: How successful were the players the following year (the dreaded YEAR X + 1)?

I went ahead and compiled the Top 25 seasons since the NFL merger in 1970 for QB, RB, WR, and TE. With the way numbers have been escalating in recent years, many times we take for granted just how prolific some of these seasons have been.

As we steam into the 2005 regular season, of the 100 seasons contained here, 7 occurred last year (Culpepper, Manning, Alexander, Muhammad, Gates, Gonzalez, and Witten).

Like many other statistical comparisons, many times there were external factors that came into play in Year X + 1. The player could have been injured; teammates could have been injured in Year X and returned or injured in Year X + 1 and not returned. There could have been personnel or coaching change. In short, many environments changed from one year to the next, and just looking at the numbers will not reflect that.

Since there is no good way to evaluate some of the results, I broke it down to fantasy points scored, points per game, and value points to help give different data points for comparison. In terms of value, even though a player's value could have slipped from one season to the next, a value score of 100 would normally represent a Top 10 season overall (based solely on player value). So bear that in mind when looking at the value numbers.

Here are the numbers for each position based on a standard scoring system of:

Fantasy Points = (Pass Yards)/20 + (Rush Yd + Rec Yd)/10 + (Pass TDs)*4 + (Rush TDs + Rec TDs)*6 - (INTs)*1

Key

• Position Played
• Year Played (Year X in the first column and X + 1 in the second column)
• FP = Fantasy Points (Regular season)
• PPG = Fantasy Points Scored per Game
• VALUE = Relative Value using the "Worst Starter Method" for a 12 team league (RB12, RB24, WR30, TE12). (Basically the number of fantasy points scored above the worst regular starter at that position).

So what does this tell us? For starters, QB get injured a fair amount. Nine of the QB here got hurt the following season, and others got banged up and may have missed a game or two. What else does it tell us? That the repeatability factor is not very high. Only 2 QB scored more fantasy points, 3 QB had a higher PPG average, and 1 QB had more value the following season. Only Steve Young was able to improve upon his numbers in all three categories.

Culpepper and Young appear 3 times with Manning, Marino, Cunningham, Favre twice. Cunningham is the only one to have done it on different teams. Only 5 QB had a value score of 100+ the following season.

Some people have wondered whether it takes a stud WR to have a great season at QB. Of these QB seasons, 21 had a Top 10 WR (04 Culpepper, 90 Culpepper, 95 Favre, and 02 Gannon did not). Some teams had at least two viable threats with 10 having two Top 10 WR (including 04 Manning with three Top 10 WR). The average ranking for their WR1 was #5 and WR2 was #24.

For those wondering if the Top 25 WR overlapped with the Top 25 QB seasons, there were 9 times when a QB/WR tandem made both lists.

The injury factor made many of the QB less valuable in Year X + 1, so PPG may be the best evaluation tool for QB. Only 11 QB had a PPG average within 3 points in Year X + 1. Eight of the seasons occurred in the past 5 years. The season with the most Top 25 QB seasons was 2000 with three.

Using the FBG Projections from 8/17, both Culpepper and Manning are projected to have Top 25 seasons this year. To date, only 2 QB have followed up a Top 25 season with another Top 25 season (Favre and Young), although Fouts was on pace for one in the 1982 strike season.

Culpepper would have to fall 80 points to miss the list this coming year (64 for Manning). The Vikings may still be potent but the loss of Moss could be a major obstacle for Culpepper in having another Top 25 season. The chances for Manning might be slightly better, as he did not lose any of his WR (and the loss of TE Marcus Pollard may not be that great).

In many scoring systems, a fantasy season can be made or broken by the production of a first round draft pick invested in the right or wrong RB. Of course, predicting a good season is one thing, but a Top 25 season is another.

A heavy workload was a key ingredient to these seasons. These RB averaged 347 carries and 55 receptions (402 touches). Fifteen players had 400+ touches. On the low side, Faulk had the fewest carries (253 on two occasions), Eric Dickerson had the fewest receptions (21), and Faulk had the fewest touches of them all (in the #1 ranked season to boot-375 fantasy points in 334 touches).

Multiple Top 25 seasons were produced by Faulk (3), Emmitt (3), Holmes (2), Tomlinson (2), Dickerson (2), and James (2). Given the guys NOT on that short list should be an indicator of how difficult it is to even get on it. For example, O.J. Simpson's 2,000-yard rushing season DID NOT make it (only 6 receptions that year certainly didn't help any). No RB on the list did it for two teams. Only Faulk had a season where he improved in all three categories.

Injuries again played a role in skewing the Year X + 1 numbers, as Davis, Anderson, and James all suffered season ending injuries (Sanders was not included due to his retirement). Overall, 4 RB improved in total fantasy points, 4 in PPG, and 3 in total value.

The repeatability factor was somewhat better for RB compared to QB, as 7 RB followed up a Top 25 season with another Top 25 season. There were 13 players that had a value of 100+ points in Year X + 1.

With the recent surge in RB scoring, it's no surprise that 11 of the Top 25 seasons were from the past 5 years with 2003 the leader with 4 players from the same season.

Looking at the FBG projections from 8/17, there is no RB currently projected to have Top 25 seasons in 2005. With 44% of the list from recent seasons, that may prove to be an oversight.

Alexander had a fine campaign in 2004, and given the absence of WR Koren Robinson, he could get a heavy workload this year if his contract squabble hasn't comprised his standing with the team. If Alexander could get more involved in the passing attack, he would have a decent chance of bettering last season.

For starters, Jerry Rice had 6 of the best 10 seasons ever for a WR (including one with only 12 games played). That's just insane. Rice has 7 of the Top 25 seasons, with Harrison (4), and Moss (3) the only players to have more than one.

As opposed to QB and RB, the injury factor was minimal in analyzing the follow-up seasons.
Only 9 players stayed above the 100 point value mark in Year X + 1. There were 4 WR that went up in total points scored, 4 that went up in PPG, and 3 that increased their relative value. On 9 occasions the WR followed up with a Top 25 season-and that was due mostly to Rice being so productive.

One of the weird statistical quirks was that the 1995 season had 6 of the Top 25 seasons. Michael Irvin had 1,600/10 that year and ranked as the 7th best fantasy WR on the season. By comparison, that stat line would have ranked Irvin 1, 1, 3, 2, 5, 3, 3, 3, and 2 in the each of the seasons since 1995.

I tried to research what might have caused that and could not find anything definitive. The league expanded the year before, but that did not really impact WR totals in 1994. Similarly, numbers dropped back down to more normal levels in 1996.

There were 9 seasons on the list from the past 5 years, but only one of them was in the Top 10. Only Rice had a season where he improved in all three categories.

For all the hoopla involving Terrell Owens, he's only on the list once. In the past few years, Harrison and Moss have been more productive and have posted elite numbers.

Last year's surprise, Muhsin Muhammad will need divine intervention to make the list again this year given the black clouds surrounding the Bears offense and QB situation.

Looking at the FBG projections, only Moss is pegged to have a Top 25 season. No WR on the list did so for more than one team, and he would be the first. Moss may have a solid season, but the bar may be set just a little too high this year for Moss to tack on another Top 25 season.

To clarify, there have been several other top years for TE that did not make the list that occurred prior to 1970. Christensen had 4 of the top seasons including the top slot and was a dominating force in the early 80's. Gonzalez is a modern day equivalent (also with 4 entries) and has also put up numbers close to a WR.

With TE not as high a scoring position, there were only 3 TE that had a value score of 100+ in Year X + 1, but there were only 8 that had that high a score in Year X. There were only five Top 25 seasons in the past 5 years-the fewest by far compared to the other positions. Six of the TE followed up a Top 25 season with another Top 25 season.

Gonzalez had two seasons where he improved his numbers in all three categories. Christensen accomplished that once.

Both Gonzalez and Gates are slated to make the list again this year based on FBG projections. However, those two ranked Top 5 all time last year, and both would need a lot of luck to have a successful encore. Witten, a surprise entry on this list, is projected to slip some.

Here's a quick recap looking at all the positions.

Of the players included in the Top 100 seasons compiled here, 22 had another Top 25 season in Year X + 1 (QB 2, RB 7, WR 7, and TE 6). The huge majority could not match their success, and many fell off a substantial amount.

By comparison to "regular" high scoring seasons, the drop off was even more severe. Depending upon the position, I believe that the expected decrease in total fantasy points scored is in the 10-15% range.

Most players would be expected to regress after a big season, and the numbers support that many players suffered a sizable drop-off in Year X + 1 after posting a Top 25 season.

Overall, it appears that pushing players coming off elite seasons up the player rankings for may not be the most prudent thing to do, as more than likely owners drafting players higher than previously expected will be paying for prior results instead of future returns.