Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players
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Statistics can help glean insight in more accurately predicting future player performance. True sharks know that identifying trends, analyzing situations, and being three steps ahead of the competition are what win titles. Avoiding players that are set up to be unproductive is just as important as drafting players that are productive. Allowing other owners to select players that seem destined for failure can strengthen your squad and dramatically improve your chances of winning. With so much emphasis on the RB position in fantasy football these days, I put on my Poindexter hat and pocket protector and went digging into the universe known as RB statistics again (at this point, I have a preferred parking spot). On many occasions, I yearned to have a single source to review and compare each team's RB productivity. In the past, someone might have mentioned that St. Louis had 380 TEAM rushing attempts last year. But on its own, what does that really mean and what does that tell us? In attempt to try to bring some meaning to isolated statistics, I assembled the past three seasons of team RB stats in the most common categories, ranking the results by category to give a true reflection as to where each team fell on the RB food chain. By grouping the past three seasons together, we can now see how teams' production, strategy, and tendencies have changed. I broke down the production data down all the way to each individual RB touch to show how efficient a team has been. That way, we could approximate what might happen if a team did elect to go overboard on RB utilization in the upcoming season. I also indicated how each team stacked up to the team leader in each category to give a better sense of how far a team was from getting to the top of that category. There will be many mysteries to ponder over embedded within the data contained here. Those that can decipher it better than others will be well on their way to winning their league title. Those that elect to ignore what the statistics are telling us-in some cases flashing in bright neon lights-will make poor decisions on draft day and will later shrug their shoulders and kick the dirt citing unexpected poor player performance as the reason their team struggled. I added some comments along the way to illustrate what I saw in reviewing the results. Certainly, others will see things that I did not, and others still will interpret data in a different if not completely opposite way. But at least there is a more consolidated way to access and analyze the data. And don't forget that major changes in coaching or on-field personnel could have impacted the prior results or may impact them this season. So bear all that in mind, and remember that I don't claim to have all the answers . . . Key / Explanation
League Wide Results
For those that get heavy into yearly projections, that's the baseline average for the entire NFL. With all the gaudy passing totals last year, the number of carries per team only dropped by two on the season. RB receptions have fallen by 12 per team in the past two seasons, which is a fair amount, especially with the perception that fantasy passing stats were up. Fantasy scoring has dropped a tad each season, but nothing to really write home about. Individual Teams
Yearly Scoring Rank: 22, 32, 18 The 4 TDs scored in 2003 is not a typo. The team did much better in 2004, but when 90-year-old Emmitt Smith is the one leading the charge, it's time to look elsewhere. Arrington will likely get the majority of the workload, and depending on how much improvement you envision Dennis Green can milk out of the offense will determine how well you think Arrington will do. Shipp is still around and 1) looked phenomenal in 2002 with a 4.4 ypc and 9 TD in limited use, 2) couldn't get in the end zone even once in 258 touches the following year with a 3.6 ypc, 3) and went on IR with a leg/ankle injury and never played a down in 2004. Hambrick is also still around, and there have been unconfirmed rumors and innuendo that he could potentially be utilized as a goal line back. I'd say that Shipp might have value as a third down back, but we really don't know yet who will be in on third downs and Arizona did not throw a lot to RBs. If they were smart, they might want to rethink that, as QB Kurt Warner would benefit by always having a safety valve rather than getting annihilated by blitzers all day long. As with most of the bottom feeder teams, relying on RB production for too long from their RBs likely will hurt your chances of fantasy success.
Yearly Scoring Rank: 15, 11, 10 One of only 6 teams with 15+ TD each season (KC, GB, Den, SD, and Sea). One of two teams (Sea) to rank higher overall than any individual season. Vick served as a third RB, but didn't squash the RB totals as much as some people have suggested. The interesting thing to observe will be how the running game would be impacted by the Falcons getting any semblance of a passing game, but that could take a while. As in all RBBC situations, one has to wonder how much one guy would be worth if his counterpart got hurt for an extended period. In 9 games without Duckett playing, Dunn has averaged 17.2 ppg. Duckett has averaged 11.5 PPG without Dunn in the lineup. Vick with either Dunn or Duckett out has averaged 7.5 PPG rushing (compared to 7.6 PPG rushing with both playing).
Yearly Scoring Rank: 26, 5, 22 As a team, had very few receiving yards (31st), which has been the knock on Jamal Lewis' value. 2003 season was 100+ fantasy points more than the other two, and the immediate question is why? Production per touch dropped a fair amount, and the team did have 491 touches, so it is not a workload issue. This year, the team actually has some WR options in Mason and Clayton. That could open the field up more and help the ground game in becoming more effective, but it also could take away carries at the same time. As far as Taylor as a backup, in the seven games in his career that he's had 10 or more carries, he's averaged 11.7 fantasy points per game.
Yearly Scoring Rank: 11, 23, 15 Carries and touches have gone up each season, and with a young QB taking over, that trend may continue. Receiving totals have taken a bath in recent seasons. Even with McGahee's great finish, the team totals were not dramatically different. Given his performance in 2002 and 2003, Henry's benching in favor of McGahee looked like a travesty but turned into a fantasy goldmine. Henry may not be around if he gets his way, so depth behind Willis could be an issue. One has to wonder how many carries the team will give McGahee given his recovery from his Orange Bowl injury. Those high on McGahee should be aware that the surge in the Bills defense and special teams last year coincided with McGahee taking over for Henry. Buffalo had 34 drives start in enemy territory in the 12 games that McGahee started (and another 22 outside of the Bills' 40 yard line). Factoring a decline in the Bills ability to produce turnovers, an inexperienced QB, and worse field position could mean the Bills might not score as many points this year.
Yearly Scoring Rank: 25, 12, 20 One of six teams with a different scoring leader each season (Min, NE, Was, Det, Dal). The odds are good that that trend will continue again this year. "Healthy" and "Carolina RB" have not appeared in the same sentence very often. When Nick Goings leads your playoff run, you know you've had a lot of injuries. A lot of touches overall but not very productive. I wouldn't want to pin my fantasy hopes for the season on any of these guys, as Foster has missed more games than he's played, Davis is still recovering from major surgery, and Shelton is a rookie. A healthy backfield will try to pound the ball again and a banged up one will have Jake Delhomme airing it out again. If you didn't spend early on running backs, this is what is left that might be a little more affordable.
Yearly Scoring Rank: 31, 30, 21 One of four teams to increase total TDs each season (KC, TB, and Hou). Things were headed in the right direction with Thomas Jones, but I guess they were not improving enough. Thomas Jones seemed to be able to move the ball and score when healthy (which we've learned over time is not all that often), but one would think that given the improvement in RB production they might have addressed other area with an early round draft pick. Given that the Bears offense in generally would not be labeled "robust," Benson and Jones sharing the workload probably won't equal great fantasy production, but if one or the other would to get banged up, that could be a different story. The way for RB to make it worthwhile in fantasy circles is to get a heavy workload, and that could happen with injuries (just ask Nick Goings).
Yearly Scoring Rank: 27, 17, 23 One of only two teams to produce a Top 10 fantasy back while ranking outside the Top 20 in team fantasy points scored by RB (Miami with Ricky Williams in 2003 was the other). Rudi Johnson had 362 carries and Williams had 383, so quantity outweighed quality in those instances. Johnson ranking in the Top 10 while the team's RB scoring dipped was a bit surprising. Even though Rudi Johnson had the toughest schedule for RB last year, he and the team will have to be more productive for him to climb in the year-end rankings. If Chris Perry gets even a small cut of the workload, Johnson won't be in the Top 10 again. With Johnson getting 92% of the carries last year, it's unlikely that he will improve on that percentage. For a team expected to pass a fair amount, RB receptions have dipped a fair amount.
Yearly Scoring Rank: 29, 27, 31 There are very few positives here. Only team Bottom 10 each season. Only team to fail to score 10 TD in any of the past three seasons. Priest Holmes has had years with more TDs in a single season than the Browns RBs have scored in 48 games. Only team not to have a year with 2,000 total yards. Had lowest ranking player (Jamel White - RB 45) to lead a team in fantasy scoring. Almost all categories trending in the wrong direction. However, a tandem of Suggs and Droughns offers some hope that the Browns might climb out of the fantasy cellar, as they have no place to go but up. It's been 16 seasons since the Browns produced a 1,000-yard rusher, and it could easily be 17 if things evolve into a RBBC this year. With massive changes to the Browns coaching staff and player pool, at this point projecting who will serve what role is no more than a crapshoot, but Cleveland will be hard pressed to do worse with their RB production.
Yearly Scoring Rank: 30, 13, 24 Even with Jones' late surge, the Cowboys totals as a whole dropped a fair amount last year. Part of Jones' monster finish could have been due to the lack of healthy RB options and uncertainty at the QB spot. Jones should do well, but don't expect 30+ carries too often and also don't expect the same rate of TD production. Receiving yards almost evaporated in 2005-that will almost certainly increase this year. Looking just at the RB production the past three years, you can almost have predicted the team's record in each season. With Parcells looking to run with the lead, all the Cowboys need to do is get the lead. Another interesting Parcells factoid: His teams have ranked in the top half of the league in passing attempts in 12 of his 17 seasons. A-Train and Barber are both more competent than any of the backs Dallas rostered last season, so there will not be the necessity to run Jones into the ground. Overall, though, Dallas is in a much better spot than they were last year.
Yearly Scoring Rank: 2, 4, 6 Had 2,000+ yards rushing in each season. No other team had 2000 yards in more than one of the past three seasons. One of two teams (KC) with 2,500 total yards each season. Whoever becomes "the guy" in Denver will put up stellar numbers. We already knew that. This just confirms it. If Tatum Bell stays as Denver's RB1, he will be severely undervalued heading into the season (current ADP of RB19). However, having Maurice Clarett, Mike Anderson, or Quentin Griffin tucked away on your roster might not be a bad investment. Someone from Denver always puts up monster numbers, and this year will be no different. In my opinion, it's worth the risk to land Bell, as the environment has been Top 3 in terms of total yardage, TD, and fantasy points.
Yearly Scoring Rank: 18, 29, 16 Total touches were very consistent-- lots of receptions, but limited carries. That might flip flop this year. Jones was a whirlwind in the latter stages of the season, exceeding 1,000 yards in total offense the last eight games of the season. Jones should be able to crack the Top 10 provided he can get into the end zone enough, which may or may not be difficult depending upon how the Lions' passing game takes off. It also remains to be seen if Jones can duplicate his production rate in 2005. Bryson didn't really shine in Detroit in 2003, save his one strong effort against KC (but anyone can run on the Chiefs). Take Jones, but likely ignore the rest unless there are a lot of teams or deep rosters.
Yearly Scoring Rank: 7, 1, 8 Although somewhat hard to believe, the Packers actually out produced the Chiefs in 2003. But don't expect that to happen again. Green Bay has done quite well utilizing their RB corps. Ranked in the Top 10 in every category. One of two teams (Pit) with 400+ carries in each season and the only team with 500+ touches in each season. Even so, their 2003 point total was 50% higher than the other two, and that may have been due to Brett Favre's broken thumb than a change in team philosophy. The Packers ranked 8th in scoring in 2004 and 7th in 2002. That might be a better representation of where they will stack up. OL losses could hinder rushing totals some this year. With Green's production taking a dip last year and the shear volume that the Packers have used their backs, taking Fisher or Davenport late would be recommended to add RB depth in later rounds. In eight games with 10+ carries, Davenport has averaged 10.6 fantasy PPG In four 10+ carry games, Fisher has averaged 11.2 PPG
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