Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players
|
|
Login / Signup |
|
| Introduction • QB: [under] [over] • RB: [under] [over] • WR: [under] [over] • TE: [under] [over] | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Overvalued WRs
David Dodds - He has ranked 22nd and 23rd at the wide receiver position in his first two years in the league. He has immense talent, but plays on a very conservative team. To expect a jump to WR7 status is simply too much to ask while he plays for the Texans. Cecil Lammey - How fitting that I have both Andre and Carr in the overvalued category. He is a great physical specimen and has an outstanding skill set; unfortunately he doesn’t score enough TDs to be considered among the league leaders. He scored only 6 TDs last year and ended the season on a down note. The last 4 weeks of the season he only had 124 yards combined with 1 TD. Factor that plus he’s only had two, 2 TD games in his entire career. Marc Levin - Johnson is a definite NFL and fantasy star, but as the seventh receiver off the board, the best he can do is live up to his draft spot. He is certainly a risky third round WR1. In 2004, he topped 100 yards only four times, had only six touchdowns, generated over 18% of his fantasy numbers in one huge 170 yard / two-TD game, and was the 22nd most targeted receiver per game. Unless you see the Texans’ passing game plan radically changing, Johnson is overvalued. Chase Stuart - Andre Johnson ranked as the 23rd and 22nd fantasy WR the past two years, and there’s little reason to expect a huge improvement in 2005. Houston doesn’t throw many passes, and they become even more conservative in the red zone. Johnson had just 13 targets from inside the twenty – tied for 29th among WRs – and only one target from inside the five. Johnson’s a great talent, but he’s playing in an offense that’s terrible for his fantasy potential. David Yudkin - No one doubts that Andre Johnson is talented and could put up some solid numbers. The problem is that he plays on a team with a conservative game plan and a heavy focus on the run. Johnson slumped to just 449 receiving yards and two TDs over the second half of the season when the Texans took to moving the ball on the ground. Even with close to 200 additional receiving yards and two more TDs compared to 2003, Johnson ranked only one slot higher (23rd in 2003 vs. 22nd in 2004). A lot would have to change in Houston for Johnson to rank as the #7 WR, making the selection of AJ at that slot a poor value pick. "Bloom" - Andre Johnson will continue to be hurt by mediocre QB play and the lack of any credible #2 option in the Houston passing offense. His numbers were very pedestrian in the second half of the season, less than 500 yards and only two TDs. Defenses should continue to key on Johnson and force someone to beat them, meaning that Johnson’s chances of putting up WR1 numbers are slim. "diesel7982" - Andre Johnson has not yet broken the top 20 of FF WRs, but he is being taken as the #7 WR? AJ’s biggest problem is that the Texans do not throw to their WRs in the red-zone, which severely limits his TD potential. Expect a slight increase in yardage and TDs as AJ enters his third season, but do not take him as a top ten WR. "Iwannabeacowboybaby" - Andre Johnson has never caught seven TDs in a season nor has he caught 80 balls. The Houston passing game has not developed like many thought it would which will keep Johnson’s totals to less than spectacular. Drafting him as WR seven on his potential is risky business and something I’m not prepared to do. "LHUCKS" - If this were a ranking based on talent alone I’d have no qualms. Unfortunately talent alone will not get you a top 10 WR projection. Johnson finished #23 in WR scoring last year and was constantly double or triple teamed. I don’t see enough change in this Houston situation to jack up his ranking to the #6 WR taken. Top 6 talent, but bottom 6 situation for AJ. "SammyJankis" - In a game of word association, the name “Andre Johnson” would probably elicit a response of “upside” from most fantasy owners. But production and potential are two entirely different things. In two fantasy seasons, Johnson has finished as the 23rd and 22nd WR under the FBG’s scoring system. Johnson showed no signs of reversing this trend over the second half of the season, catching just 34 balls for 449 yards and two touchdowns in that stretch. Much of that can be attributed to the Texans’ conservative passing attack, particularly in the red zone. Houston’s 16 passing touchdowns tied for 26th in the NFL. In the Texans’ offense, Johnson doesn’t have enough upside to warrant being the seventh wide receiver off the board.
Clayton Gray - Yes, the Raiders offense should be very good this year, but Porter in round five is crazy talk. There will likely be some growing pains in Oakland as the team adjusts to the addition of Randy Moss. During that time, Porter could struggle. Fifth round selections aren’t supposed to struggle. Aaron Rudnicki - Porter was the Raiders #1 WR last year, got 128 pass targets, and finished the season as the #20 ranked fantasy WR. This year, they have added Randy Moss who will immediately become the top receiving option, and a legitimate feature RB in Lamont Jordan who should get a healthy does of carries each week. Last year in Minnesota, Nate Burleson was the #2 target to Moss and only finished with 98 pass targets. It just doesn’t seem like there will be enough opportunities available for him to finish as a top-20 WR again. Ron White - Porter is presently being drafted ahead of many #1 receivers. He won’t have #1 value unless Randy Moss is injured. With the addition of Moss and receiving back Lamont Jordan, Porter may see fewer opportunities. Keep in mind that Kerry Collins is known to be an inconsistent quarterback at times, so drafting Porter ahead of legitimate #1 receivers is risky. "Barry Jive and the Uptown Five" - Talk about the tough breaks. You bide your time playing behind a couple of hall-of-famers in Tim Brown and Jerry Rice. Now that it's your turn to step into the WR1 role… Enter Randy Moss. Porter has a lot of talent, but I think he's going to fall victim of the "Randy-Ratio" in Oakland. Who wouldn't? Until Porter finds his way to a team where he can be a true WR1, I don't think he's justified in being selected in the Top 20 WRs. "BostonFred" - Jerry Porter was one of the most targetted receivers last year, with 128 balls thrown in his direction as the WR1 on his team. Yet Porter caught only half of them. He was the 20th best WR last year, but people are drafting him as the 18th. I expect a decline in his numbers and really don't see much room for improvement. One of my big concerns is that 21 of Porter's 64 catches and six of Porter's nine TDs came in two games last year, including a rare shootout with Tennessee on national television. Another concern is that Moss will get a lot of those targets, and Porter hasn't shown he can do much with the balls that are thrown to him. "Couch Potato" - Porter finished 2004 at 64-998-9, with 14-283-6 coming in just two games (one of which came after Ron Curry's season was ended by injury). With just 715 yards and three TDs in the other 14 games as the supposed #1 WR in Oakland, I wonder how it is he's supposed to achieve WR18 status with Randy Moss getting the lion's share of the work and Curry returning as well. Seldom do teams place 2 WRs in the top 20, and when they do the #2 is generally a polished possession guy with the #3 not getting a lot of action. Given Porter's inconsistent career to this point, I'd lower my expectations for him on 2005. "EBF" - Despite playing 16 games and leading the Raiders in targets, Jerry Porter only finished as the #20 fantasy WR last season. Oakland’s addition of Randy Moss probably means less opportunities for Porter, which makes him a poor bet to live up to his top 20 WR draft status. "joffer" - Let me get this straight, Jerry Porter finishes 20th last year, Oakland adds Randy Moss, and Jerry moves up 2 spots? The Raiders added Moss and Lamont Jordan this offseason. And on paper, it looks they've built a foundation for a high-flying offense. However, that foundation may be built on sand. Jordan is unproven, and Kerry Collins is the poster boy for Jekyll and Hyde QBs from game to game. Add a talented Ronald Curry to steal targets, and the question marks around Porter do not warrant his current ADP in the fifth round. There are many better options this year at WR. "Tick" - Porter finished last season a hair under 1000 yards and snagged nine TDs. Had things stayed the same, I would have predicted great things for him this season. But they didn't stay the same; four of those TDs came in the last four weeks when Ronald Curry was out with an injury. Porter was the only viable WR on the team at that point. This season is a completely different story, with Randy Moss coming in as the #1 and Porter having to compete with Curry for the second starting spot. I also see an increased reliance on the running game with the addition of Lamont Jordan. Everything points to decreased opportunities for Porter, which would make it very hard for him to live up to his ADP.
Marc Levin - As fantasy players we like to get a jump on top fantasy talent, but as a fourth round pick for WR12, Roy Williams and, consequently, an anticipated WR1 spot on your fantasy team, is unlikely to bear fruit. There is upside in an eight TD, 15.1 yards per catch second year player, but the lack of competition for his 54 catches in 2004 will be replaced by 2005 first round pick Mike Williams and the return of Charles Rogers. A possible QB battle between Harrington and Garcia could also disrupt continuity. Better risks at his ADP are Darrell Jackson and Hines Ward. Aaron Rudnicki - Roy Williams got off to a great start last year with 4 TDs and nearly 300 yards in his first 3 games, but his numbers trailed off a bit after that. He missed a couple games with nagging injuries, and Kevin Jones’ emergence seemed to have a negative impact on his production. He’s yet to prove that he can regularly beat double coverage, and he’ll now have 3 new players competing with him for pass targets in 2005. Joey Harrington’s 54% career completion percentage is also reason for concern. Chase Stuart - Roy Williams made highlight reels and NFL Primetime, but he won’t be making offering value as the tenth WR selected. Williams ranked as the 29th best receiver last year, but will now have to compete with rookie Mike Williams and a presumably healthy Charles Rogers for touches. Having the number one WR on a team that doesn’t throw very often, doesn’t throw very well and doesn’t throw for many TDs isn’t very desirable. Factoring in the added competition this year and Williams will be very hard pressed to match his average draft position. Mark Wimer - Neither Joey Harrington or Jeff Garcia are elite fantasy producers at this point in their respective careers, which means there will be a mediocre amount of passing yards to split up between Williams, Charles Rogers, Mike Williams, and Marcus Pollard. With so many targets and a relatively stingy pool of passing yards and TDs to split amongst the players, Williams won’t have enough touches to achieve top-10 fantasy production this year. He may struggle to finish in the top 20. "BostonFred" - Roy Williams caught 54 balls for 817 yards and eight TDs last year, making him the #29 WR, but he is being drafted as the 12th WR off the board. This year, Charles Rogers returns, Mike Williams has been drafted, there's uncertainty at QB, and two of their division rivals have improved on defense. With so many WRs, he won't improve much on his 114 targets this year, and with 15.1 YPC, he won't improve much on each reception, so where's the huge improvement going to come from? "diesel7982" - Despite a nagging ankle injury, Williams had a great rookie season, with 817 yards and eight TDs as the lone, decent option in the Detroit passing game. However, in the offseason, Mike Williams, Marcus Pollard, and Kevin Johnson were added, and Charles Rogers is again, supposedly healthy enough to play. Will Roy receive enough targets to produce at a WR12 level? It’s hard to see it happening. "EBF" - Roy Williams received a high number of targets last season and still only finished the season as the #29 overall fantasy WR. The Lions should have better QB play this season, but they’ll also have Charles Rogers and Mike Williams. I expect Roy to be more effective than he was last year, but I don’t think he’ll get enough opportunities to live up to his #12 WR draft status. "Jurb26" - OK, I love this guy's ability and potential just as much as the next guy. Does he really deserve to be drafted as a WR1 though? There are just too many questions in Detroit right now for me to feel comfortable taking Roy this high. You have three first round WRs on the team along with a RB that looks on the verge of becoming a star. Will there be enough balls to go around? On top of that you have unproven QB play still. Roy has all the talent in the world, but so do two other WRs on the Det roster. Roy certainly could live up to this drat position, but I think it's rather unlikely seeing how many other great weapons Detroit has. "Tick" - Williams was thrust into the #1 spot last season as a rookie after Charles Rogers was injured, and he had a respectable rookie season. In dynasty leagues, he's justifiably considered a top WR given his age and ability. However, for redrafts he's severely overvalued. With an ADP of 41 (WR12), people are expecting a 50% increase in his yards or TDs. That's too much – with Rogers presumably returning and the drafting of Mike Williams, plus the emergence of Kevin Jones and the running game, and with the uncertain QB situation in Detroit, I just don't see Williams coming anywhere near the stats needed to justify his draft position.
Mike Brown - Are we talking about the same guy here? The guy who scored TWO touchdowns over the season’s final 13 games (1 over the final 9)? The guy who is now playing with a rookie QB that has 5 career pass attempts? Ahead of guys like Deion Branch, Anquan Boldin, and Ashley Lelie? No thanks. Heck, I’d take Moulds’ teammate Lee Evans (9 touchdowns in 2004, including 7 over the last 6 games) over Moulds. Will Grant - Moulds is entering his tenth season, and he’s being pushed by Lee Evans for the #1 WR slot on Buffalo. Moulds only averaged 11.9 yards per reception last year and only reached the end zone five times. He cracked the 100-yard receiving mark only once. Now add in the fact that Buffalo’s starting QB has five total attempts to his career, and Moulds looks primed to under-perform the WR21 slot that he’s being drafted. Chris Smith - Let’s see here, an inexperienced signal caller, an offensive line that struggles to protect the quarterback, a young, dynamic receiver in Lee Evans who has emerged as threat # 1 in the passing attack and an aging receiver in Moulds. I don’t love Moulds chances to put up solid numbers this season. He could struggle to even match last year’s production. "BassNBrew" - Moulds and Lee Evans finished ranked 32nd and 27th respectively last year (with an experienced QB at the helm). I can’t justify this much of an improvement with a second year QB making his first career start in week one. One may hit and meet ADP expectations, but both won’t. "Fullback Fro" - Eric Moulds is another year older, and he is playing with a rookie QB. To me it’s the beginning of the end for Mould’s career. He’s had nagging injury problem the last couple years, and he is likely to lose the title of top fantasy WR in Buffalo to up and coming speedster, Lee Evans. To grab Moulds you will need to spend a 5/6th round pick when you could Evans in the 8th. "joffer" - Moulds' ranking the last 4 years: 33rd, 4th, 45th, and 26th. The 2002 season was impressive, but the last two years in Buffalo have proven that offense to be long gone. Now enter a second year QB with five career attempts and Moulds has no business in the top 25. His physical talent is impressive, but with a young QB and McGahee in the backfield, Buffalo is going to run, run, and then run some more. I've heard many argue that the QB play couldn't get any worse than it was in Buffalo last year, but without having seen anything of Losman, I'm not ruling that out yet.
Cecil Lammey - Ward is one of the fiercest WRs in the game today. With Big Ben still learning the ropes Ward had only two 100 yard games in 2004. Pittsburgh will continue to run the ball with a dominant, smashmouth approach. This means that Ward’s numbers will be very pedestrian when compared to other players taken after him. With the loss of Plaxico Burress, the Steelers will rely on Ward even more, but with that conservative offense I don’t see a drastic increase in his production. Maurile Tremblay - The Steelers are the most run-oriented team in football. They attempted only 22 passes per game last year and probably won’t throw more than 26 a game this year. That’s not enough to feed a top ten fantasy WR. Ward finished as the 28th-best fantasy WR last year, and while I expect him to move up into the top 20 this year, he won’t do much better than that as long as the Steelers forsake an aerial attack for the power running game. Mark Wimer - Hines Ward is a great possession receiver, but he doesn’t often go deep. Ben Roethlisberger is still a work in progress, and the team’s power running based offense doesn’t require him to throw a lot. Ward’s number of receptions has dropped from 112 in 2002, to 95, then to 80 last year with a mere 4 TDs. The number of TDs may improve this year, but Ward’s receptions and total yardage aren’t likely to go back up unless the Steelers abandon their power running game (highly unlikely). He’s not a good #1 WR prospect. Jason Wood - Ward is one of the league’s better overall receivers, but the fact remains that his 1,000 yard, 4-TD season of a year ago was hardly out of left field. Ward’s 2004 season was a mirror image to his 2001 season, and he’s just as likely to finish at those levels as he is the 2002-2003 levels when he was among the league’s top-10 fantasy options. With Plaxico Burress no longer commanding attention from defenders, and the team re-committed to a heavy ground attack, betting on Ward as your #1 receiver is a risky proposition to say the least. David Yudkin - Hines Ward suffers a similar fate as Andre Johnson does. Ward also plays on a team that pounds the ball on the ground. The Steelers had the highest run to pass ratio in almost 20 years, meaning that the ball was rarely in the air for Ward (or other Steelers WR) to catch it. In the second half of 2004, Ward’s numbers dipped to 381 receiving yards and just one TD. People will point to the fact that WR Plaxico Burress has moved on, but even so, Ward would need a major infusion in his productivity to approach the top ten again. If the Steelers again rely on defense and a ball control rushing game, there may not be many TD opportunities for Ward, and he certainly did not seem to click well with Ben Roethlisberger at QB. "SammyJankis" - Hines Ward delivers some of the meanest blocks of any wideout in the league, but those won’t earn you any fantasy points. Owners taking Ward as the tenth WR off the board are surely expecting improvement on his 2004 season where Ward finished as the 28th WR in 2004 with 1004 yards and four touchdowns. Ward put up elite fantasy numbers in 2002 and 2003, with the Steelers putting the ball in the air 30 times a game. But in 2004, the Steelers were very successful with defense and a strong running game. Pittsburgh finished only 28th in passing yards in 2004. Ward will remain one of the best in the game in 2005, but his fantasy numbers will likely be middle-of-the-pack.
Mike Brown - The reasons for being down on Muhammad are many. One, the best statistical season of his career wouldn’t have happened if not for the Steve Smith injury. Two, the best season of his career just happened to coincide with his free agency. Three, he’s changing teams in the off-season, always a red flag for a wide receiver. Four, Rex Grossman hasn’t proven himself on the NFL level, and Muhammad’s value will be killed if the Bears’ offense can’t make significant strides this year. For these reasons, it will be nearly impossible for Muhammad to live up to his ADP. Cathy Fazio - Muhammad is coming off of his career year in the NFL with his league leading 1405 receiving yards. But that was contributed to greatly by the injury incurred by Steve Smith. Now in Chicago, Muhammad will be teamed with a much younger unproven offense with Rex Grossman at quarterback and Bobby Wade lined up across the field from him. Chris Smith - What a great season for Muhammad in 2004! He had himself a career year that he deserves major props for (and how handy that he earned himself a big, fat payday as a result). You look at his production from 2001 to 2003 though (167 receptions and 7 touchdowns), and it isn’t likely he will put up anywhere close to the numbers he did a year ago. He is almost certain to tumble down the rankings. Jason Wood - It’s going to be difficult for fantasy leaguers to pass on Muhammad after his monstrous 1405 yard, 16 TD season of a year ago; but that’s what smart fantasy leaguers will do. Muhammad took the money and ran to Chicago, which fielded the worst passing offense in the league last year (nine total touchdown passes!). With a renewed emphasis on a power running game, an unproven starter in Rex Grossman, and no established backup in case Grossman is re-injured or struggles, Muhammad will be hard pressed to deliver stats that make him an every week fantasy starter. "Barry Jive and the Uptown Five" - Talk about cashing in at the right time! Thanks to the Steve Smith injury in CAR last year, Muhammad had his best season in 4 years, by a LONG shot. All the pieces fell into place. The top 2 RBs were lost to injuries on a team that preferred to run and the #1 WR was also lost for the year. This meant more passing and Muhsin was the only healthy vet left to pick up the pieces. Fast forward to Chicago and a new offensive coordinator who prefers a power rushing game. Couple that with the most durable workhorse rookie RB in Cedric Benson and you have the makings of a ceiling that looks more like Muhammad's 2001, 2002, 2003 seasons (~ 58 rec, 850 yds & 5-6 TDs). That's WR3 territory in the fantasy world. There are plenty of guys further down this list who will have a bigger impact.
Mike Brown - “Be wary of the wide receiver changing teams.” I know Terrell Owens dispelled many of the myths that wide receivers changing teams will struggle initially, but do not mistake Plaxico Burress for Terrell Owens anytime soon. Burress leaves a situation where he had the multi-talented Hines Ward to take a ton of pressure off him. He enters a situation where Jeremy Shockey will be relied upon to take pressure off him. Not quite the same. The double teams should be endless, and I know I’d rather take a number of other guys with maybe less talent but in better situations. Maurile Tremblay - Burress had one very good year, in 2002. Most people are figuring he will be Giants’ #1 WR this year, but I’m not convinced. Amani Toomer is coming off a down year, but like Burress he has fine size, speed, and overall athleticism. He has also had a generally more productive career than Burress. QB Eli Manning’s inexperience is another obstacle to Burress’ fantasy success: the entire Giant WR corps had only two TDs as a group last year. It’s likely that the Giants’ offense will center around Tiki Barber again, and production from the WR position will be limited. "Fullback Fro" - The guy is a fantasy nightmare. You never know when he’s going to show up. He has all the talent in the world, but he is consistently inconsistent. Now, he’s being let loose in NYC to play for a new team. I think this guy is due for some off field issues, not to mention that he will be sharing in Eli Manning’s growing pains. This just sounds like a situation to avoid. Let some other owner grab him and later in the draft pick up Amani Toomer who has already developed a relationship with the young gunslinger. "joffer" - Plaxico just doesn't strike me as a big apple kind of a guy. The first time he drops a pass in the Meadowlands and hears some of the boo birds, I'm afraid he's going to go into the tank. Eli Manning showed improvement last year, but this Giants' offense is not going to be throwing a lot and there are already several good targets with Shockey, Barber, Toomer, and a talented young Tim Carter. The ceiling for Burress in Pittsburgh was much bigger than it is in New York, and the downside is much lower, he's too risky for me at WR28.
Cathy Fazio - Edwards joins the Cleveland Browns, a team that is potentially rich with young receivers in Andre Davis and Antonio Bryant, as well as veteran Dennis Northcutt who is coming off of a career best season. As talented as Edwards is, he will experience the growing pains of being a rookie. And contributing to the impact that Edwards will make this season lies in the strength of Trent Dilfer who is known for his ability to effectively manage games rather than prolific passing. Chris Smith - He is a rookie receiver who isn’t in a great situation. I don’t expect him to crack the top forty at the receiver position in 2005. "Iwannabeacowboybaby" - Braylon Edwards is a rookie wide receiver playing with quarterback Trent Dilfer. Dilfer’s made a career of not making mistakes, not on making rookie wide receivers into instant fantasy football success. Edward’s is talented and will be a solid professional given time, but under the circumstances he’ll suffer just like many rookie wide receivers do in the NFL. "SammyJankis" - Rookie wide receivers on bad passing teams aren’t usually big fantasy producers. The Browns’ offense finished only 25th in passing yards last year. While Edwards may eventually develop into a quality NFL wideout, he’s a wasted pick for 2005. It’s entirely possible that Edwards may not produce enough to warrant any fantasy starts at all in 2005, and he doesn’t provide the upside that risky late-round gamble picks should. Owners that draft Edwards will likely have dropped him by mid-season to pick up a bye week kicker or defense.
David Dodds - There is no doubting Steve Smith’s talent. But his fearless style of play (especially across the middle) is worrisome. It cost him last season as he broke his leg in week 1. His ADP ranking of 13 represents his maximum value to me. I would look elsewhere for better value. Andy Hicks - For a receiver of his stature Steve Smith relies on his speed. After suffering a broken leg in the first week of 2004, will that speed return? The departure of Muhsin Muhammad also means that opposing defenses can totally focus on Smith in the passing game. At his current ranking the person who drafts him this season would expect him to carry on from his excellent 2003 season, but a lot has changed since then and he becomes poor value for those hoping for a return to former glories. "diesel7982" - In 2002, as the Panthers #1 option in the passing game, Steve Smith finished as WR15, with 1110/7. This year, he’s coming back off an ugly fibula/ankle injury. How is he supposed to produce at a higher level than he did two years ago? The Panther passing game as a whole will not repeat its success of last year, when Delhomme was throwing constantly due to a sub par defense and no running game. With the return of several defensive starters, healthy RBs, and a revamped OL, the Panther passing game will produce at a rate closer to the 2002 level, and Smith will not have the opportunity to produce at a WR13 level. "Unlucky" - Smith is coming off injury, and returning to an offense that won’t be passing as much. He also will have to contend with Colbert for catches. He’s currently the #40 WR on my board.
David Dodds - Being drafted by the Lions could turn out to be great for Mike William, but probably not this season. As I write this, Mike will be the third receiver behind Roy Williams and Charles Rogers. The team also added Marcus Pollard this offseason and has an elusive RB that can catch in Kevin Jones. Add in a controversy at QB (Harrington or Garcia) and there are a lot of things screaming that Mike won’t achieve his early draft position (He is being drafted as the 36th WR) this season. Chase Stuart - Mike Williams may be one of the best WRs to come out of college in years, but he’s going to have a hard time offering fantasy value as one of the top 100 picks in a draft. At best he’ll be the second option on the Lions, a team that has struggled through the air for years. Williams will likely be very rusty after taking a full year off from football, making the transition from the college game to the pros even more difficult. "Bagger" - This is painful to write. I love this kid. I am a USC grad. I think he can be an absolute monster in the NFL. However, he is not a WR36 in his rookie year. Roy Williams is the top WR currently, if Carlos Rogers is ever healthy he will take a fair amount of the reception allocation. Detroit has Marcus Pollard at TE, and Kevin Jones is emerging as a stud in the backfield. Couple that with Joey Harrington who has underachieved throughout his NFL career and an aging Jeff Garcia backing him up, and Williams will have a slow start to his NFL career. Similar to some of the rookie backs who may be ultimately better than Arrington but perform worse in 2005, I believe Williams will be the best of this year’s WR class in the long term and will do great things in the NFL. Just not in 2005. "BassNBrew" - Pretty simple analysis here, I’m not drafting the third WR, who also happens to be a rookie, from a team with Harrington and Garcia as QBs in front of other WR1’s on teams with a proven history of a viable passing attack.
Colin Dowling - Coles is coming off of a painful foot injury and going to a new team with a new offensive coordinator. Coles has shown he can make the transition from one team to another with ease, but in the first five rounds, I’d be more inclined to select a receiver with a little more certainty surrounding him. Coles finished 41st last season (mostly because he couldn’t find the endzone in Washington). The guy he is replacing in New York finished 33rd. While Coles certainly should outperform those positions, getting to 17th may take some work. Cecil Lammey - Coles is back with the Jets and will have no trouble getting re-acquainted with QB Chad Pennington. He only scored one TD in 2004 and should have more than that this year. However, his last season in NY he only had four 100 yard games and 5 TDs. In 2002 he had ten games of 12 fantasy points or less. He is certainly happy to be back in NY, but I don’t feel that he’s going to contribute more than some of the WRs selected behind him. "Jurb26" - Everyone seems very high on Coles this year due to his reuniting with the Jets and Pennington. Thoughts of 2002 still linger. Only problem is that Coles is not the same WR now that he was in 2002. His foot injury is one that seems intent on lingering around, and him not getting surgery this offseason leads me to believe that it will do so this year as it did last. Coles simply looked awful most of the time last year in Washington. He lacked his burst and had a very hard time crating any separation in his routs, things he did often last time he wore a Jets uniform. Coles' homecoming won't be as pleasant as many think.
"Iwannabeacowboybaby" - Larry Fitzgerald had a hard time shaking free of defenders last season. He is clearly the #2 WR on Arizona yet he’s being drafted in the top 20 among WRs in the entire league. I see no value in drafting Fitzgerald in 2005. "LHUCKS" - Larry had a great rookie season, but he is not a great WR IMHO. I live in Phoenix and watch every game, many of them twice. Boldin is in a different category, and Larry will be playing second fiddle for the near future. Unless you’re projecting monstrous passing numbers for AZ this year I can’t justify the Cardinals #2 WR going #20 overall. Yes Cris Carter put up great numbers in this system as the #2, but Fitz is not Carter and most likely never will be. "Tick" - While Fitzgerald's a good dynasty prospect (and I expect the Arizona passing game to improve this season), I just don't see how Fitz manages to justify the pick you'll have to spend to get him. Once Boldin returned last season, he caught only 32 balls over the last ten games. Simply put, I think as dynasty participation increases, people are overvaluing young players in redrafts.
Will Grant - The last time an Indianapolis WR3 finished with more than 500 yards receiving was in 2000 (Terrence Wilkins 569 – 3 TDs). Manning had 4413 passing yards and 33 TDs that year. In 2004, Manning passed for only 140 more yards, but he had 16 more passing TDs and an obscene 9.2 yards per attempt with a +39 TD to INT ratio. Will Manning be that effective again in 2005? Maybe. But if he isn’t, Stokley’s stats are going to plummet, and people who took him as their #2 or #3 WR are going to be very disappointed. Jason Wood - No disrespect to Brandon Stokley’s accomplishments a season ago (68 receptions, 1077 yards, 10 touchdowns) but if anyone thinks the Colts are going to match last year’s historic passing output, they need to brush up on their NFL history. While the Colts should remain one of the league’s best passing teams, the notion that three WRs will have 1000 yards and 10+ TDs is ludicrous and Stokley is clearly the odd man out. Let’s also not forget that Stokley has missed 42 games in his six year career. "Jurb26" - Stokley plain and simply had a career year last year. He is a WR3 on the Colts, and it is extremely rare for a WR3 on any team to go for 1000/10 or be a high quality starter on fantasy squads. The Colts are highly unlikely to score 60+ TDs again, and I think the person to feel the brunt of the decrease is Stokely. To put Stokley's 2004 season in perspective, he produced more lat year alone than his prior three seasons combined. Granted he only played 30 games over those three years, but still you can get the picture here.
"Bagger" - Wayne is just as overvalued as Michael Vick and Peyton Manning are. This is the kind of knee jerk overvaluation you see in the fantasy community that makes me sick to my stomach. I almost get physically ill every time I think that Wayne is the ninth drafted receiver at the end of the third round. I’m not joking. I am typing this with my head in my office trash can. Peyton Manning came off a tremendous year in 2004 but will not get close to those numbers in 2005. While Manning will still be a top two QB, most of the falloff of receiving production will be attributed to Wayne and Stokley, not Harrison. Wayne should return to his 800+ yard season with 7 touchdowns, which puts him at WR 22, similar to his 2003 figures. The 2004 season was an anomaly for Wayne. Don’t buy high on his stock. "BassNBrew" - Looking at the numbers from last year, Wayne finished ranked ninth last year with 77-1210-12 stats. That occurred on the back of a Manning all time record performance. Manning’s numbers will drop off this year putting pressure on Wayne’s numbers to decline also. "Bloom" - Reggie Wayne prospects as WR1 because are dicey because he is probably the only WR in the first 17 chosen that is not the #1 option in his team’s passing game. He is also due for a drop-off as Peyton’s run for the record inflated his stats. Not only is Reggie not a feature of the passing offense, but he is not a #1 talent either – his production is based more on the system than his ability to create on his own. All this adds up to a questionable WR1, because Wayne will generally hurt your team when he doesn’t get a TD catch, and does not provide the consistency you look for in a top 10 WR.
Mark Wimer - Bennett is in a tough situation with the Titans – the #2 WR on the team is unproven (Tyrone Calico), and there is nothing but youth and inexperience behind Calico due to the team’s salary cap woes. Defenses are sure to blanket Bennett and dare McNair to pass at his other targets in game after game. That will not brew up a huge fantasy season. He may well struggle to crack the top 30 at his position during 2005 – he is a terrible pick at the 16th WR selected. "Barry Jive and the Uptown Five" - I just don't buy the one-hit wonder that is Drew Bennett. Sorry, but I just don't see him as a borderline WR1. He snuck up on a lot of people last year with McNair out and Mason drawing all the #1 CBs from the opposing defenses. Volek, and his blatant case of man-love with Drew, is back to the bench. Mason is gone leaving Bennett as the only WR with any experience. I think it's pretty safe to say that opposing defenses are going to roll a safety over the top of Bennett's half of the field all season long and leave Calico or the gaggle of rookies in one-on-one coverage until they show they can be effective. No, Drew had his shining moment last year. I just don't see the same thing happening again.
"GregR" - Daunte Culpepper's passing yards and touchdowns have to go to someone, so it may seem tempting to take Nate Burleson here as he is the leading candidate based on last year. But there are 5 receivers who could contend for significant action in the Viking passing game. Wide receiver as a position only drops off around one fantasy point / game between rounds 4 and 7. There are better ways to spend a 4th round pick than on a player with this much risk, even given his potential upside with Culpepper throwing to him. "Unlucky" - Many expect Burleson to step right in for Moss and improve on his numbers last year. I think Moss’ absence will make it harder on Burleson, and he’ll regress slightly from last year. He’s the #24 WR on my board.
Andy Hicks - Somewhere along the line it must have been decided that Marvin Harrison is an automatic top five wide receiver, which is fair enough considering his final season rankings have put him there for the past six seasons. However, the last two seasons have shown that his opportunities have decreased. Anyone expecting a duplication of Peyton Manning’s sensational 2004 is in for disappointment. Less production this season from Manning means less ball to the receivers, and with the emergence of Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley, Marvin Harrison could slip quite a few rungs by the time 2005 closes. "Couch Potato" - There are three things working against Harrison which will keep him from a value in accordance with his ADP. First, Marvin will be 33 when his 10th season rolls around, and I believe he is no longer at the top of his game. He had 1,113 yards receiving in 2004, a second year of decline from the numbers he was putting up in his prime. Second, there are other proven targets Manning is comfortable with (Wayne, Stokley, Clark), so the ball will continue to be spread around. Third, I expect Manning's record-setting pass TD totals to return to earth (from 49 last year to 33 or so), reducing Harrison's TD totals accordingly (from a career-high 15 last year). I project 1,150-9 for Harrison, which would put my value for him at about 170 fantasy points, ADP40 and WR11.
"BostonFred" - Derrick Mason was the #17 WR last year, on 147 targets, sixth most in the NFL. Now he's moving from the team that threw the third most in the NFL, to the team that threw the 26th most. Todd Heap gets over 100 targets a year on his own and will get a lot of the possession stuff Mason is good at. Boller threw just 45 passes inside the red zone, worst among QBs who started all 16 games, so say goodbye to the touchdowns. And he has to adjust to a new system, which traditionally has been tough on WRs. I expect him to start out fairly hot (and I'll probably take some heat for calling him overrated when he does), but I just don't see him being a good starting WR in 2005 when all is said and done. "Fullback Fro" - Derrick Mason had been a model of consistency over the last several years. But many things have changed. New team, young underperforming QB, and a team in the bottom of the barrel as far as passing offenses last year. All these things make me believe that Mason is in store for a below average year. There are plenty of other WRs with less question marks and better fantasy situations in round six.
Colin Dowling - Aside from the fact that the track record of receivers changing teams rarely looks good the first year, Moss is simply being selected too high compared to his peers. The second receiver (Owens) is going 17th. The third receiver (Harrison) is going 20th and Tory Holt is being drafted 22nd. I just don’t see how anyone can select Randy Moss in round one after he has changed teams, gone from playing on turf with Daunte Culpepper to playing on grass with Kerry Collins, and gone from a pass-oriented offense to a system that favors a power running game. Norv Turner will certainly get Moss the ball a great deal, but I’m not sold on using a #1 pick on a guy like Randy Moss in a new situation. David Yudkin - Randy Moss goes from a consistently top ranked offense that played indoors with the #1 fantasy QB over the past five years...to an erratic offense with an average QB that plays most of its games outside. Factor in a coach with a propensity to run the ball into the end zone, a much tougher schedule this year for the Raiders, historical precedent that WRs usually struggle some in new environments, a mediocre defense that will keep the offense off of the field, and it’s likely Moss will not be the #1 WR in 2005. Moss has produced an average of 220 fantasy points per season. The #1 WR in each of the past five seasons (not counting Moss) has averaged 237 fantasy points per season. The likelihood that Moss’s numbers will go up in Oakland is slim. Moss won’t tank in Oakland, but he won’t earn back his status as a first round pick and the top WR off the board.
Andy Hicks - Santana Moss is the latest in a long line of big, expensive off season moves by the Washington Redskins. Not many have worked out well. Moss was frightfully disappointing for those that drafted him high last year, and while he’ll be better value this year there is still a high risk associated with drafting him. Moss moves from one of the most accurate QBs in the league to whichever erratic thrower the Redskins decide upon. His small frame is likely to be hit hard and often early in the season leading to durability concerns. "EBF" - Washington failed to produce a top 40 fantasy WR last season. They don’t have a clear starter at QB, and it’s possible that they’ll spend the whole season experimenting at the position. Moss has the ability to make big plays, but was only the #33 fantasy WR last season. It’s hard to justify taking him as the 33rd WR this season when you consider that he’s in a less favorable situation than he was in 2004.
Chris Smith - This has been a disastrous offseason for Owens this season. I do not like him as either the second receiver taken nor as high as the 17th slot overall in the draft. I would rather take a player such as Moss, Holt, and Chad Johnson. "Bagger" - Owens was undervalued in many drafts in 2004, but the pendulum has swung in 2005. Given the uncertainty around TO regarding his contract status and if he will be traded, there is a lot of risk to drafting TO as the second WR in the middle of the second round. Furthermore, even without these issues, TO’s receiving yard production over the past two years has dropped, and drafters are relying on TO’s gaudy touchdown numbers in the mid teens to justify his draft slot. It is more likely that TO will have 1,100 yards than 1,400 yards in 2005, and counting on anything more than 12 TDs is really pushing it. The above factors put him below a few receivers that can be drafted in the third round such as Joe Horn and Chad Johnson. You could take either one of those receivers who have less uncertainty, similar production, at a draft price of a round later. That sounds good to me. I’ll pass on TO.
"Unlucky" - People remember Branch’s Super Bowl performance and assume he’ll be the #1 target. I think Givens is slightly better, plus Branch can’t stay healthy. Even if healthy, Brady spreads the ball around well. Branch is the #44 WR on my board.
Ron White - Last season Clayton had a nice opportunity as a rookie to be the go to guy. Tampa Bay’s receiving corps was decimated by injury. This offseason they added Ike Hilliard and will get back a healthy Joey Galloway. This could indicate less opportunity for Clayton in 2005. There are plenty of more consistent #1 receivers being drafted after Clayton.
"BassNBrew" - Eric Moulds and Evans finished ranked 32nd and 27th respectively last year (with an experienced QB at the helm). I can’t justify this much of an improvement with a second year QB making his first career start in week one. One may hit and meet ADP expectations, but both won’t.
Aaron Rudnicki - Charles Rogers was one of the most talented WRs to enter the league in years, but he’s only been able to play in 5 games so far after breaking his collarbone in consecutive years. In addition to possibly being injury prone, Rogers has also been rumored to be a slow healer. Latest reports indicate that he’s still not fully healed, but with all the new additions the Lions have made on offense in the past two years, there just might not be enough opportunities available for him to finish this high.
"LHUCKS" - He’s fast and he’s…well uh, he’s fast. Williamson is a project and I don’t expect him to see nearly enough targets to justify being taken over a dozen likely starters in better situations. Right now he’s buried in the depth chart on a team that is vowing to throw the ball less. Speed is nice, but Carl Lewis didn’t make the Cowboys' roster despite being the fastest man on the planet. Give this kid a couple of years before you start rostering him in redrafts.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Forums |
News | Login
/ Signup | Contact
Us |