Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players
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| Introduction • QB: [under] [over] • RB: [under] [over] • WR: [under] [over] • TE: [under] [over] | |||||||||||||||||||
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Overvalued WRs
Cecil Lammey - How fitting that I have both Andre and Carr in the overvalued category. He is a great physical specimen and has an outstanding skill set; unfortunately he doesn’t score enough TDs to be considered among the league leaders. He scored only 6 TDs last year and ended the season on a down note. The last 4 weeks of the season he only had 124 yards combined with 1 TD. Factor that plus he’s only had two, 2 TD games in his entire career. Marc Levin - Johnson is a definite NFL and fantasy star, but as the 7th receiver with a third round ADP, the best he can do is live up to his draft spot. He is certainly a risky third round WR1. In 2004, he topped 100 yards only 4 times, had only 6 touchdowns, generated over 18% of his fantasy numbers in one huge 170 yard/2 TD game, and was the 22nd most targeted receiver per game. Unless you see the Texans’ passing game plan radically changing, Johnson is overvalued. David Yudkin - No one doubts that Andre Johnson is talented and could put up some solid numbers. The problem is that he plays on a team with a conservative game plan and a heavy focus on the run. Johnson slumped to just 449 receiving yards and 2 TD over the second half of the season when the Texans took to moving the ball on the ground. Even with close to 200 additional receiving yards and 2 more TD compared to 2003, Johnson ranked only one slot higher (23rd in 2003 vs. 22nd in 2004). A lot would have to change in Houston for Johnson to rank as the #7 WR, making the selection of AJ at that slot a poor value pick.
Will Grant - People love to draft last year’s surprise breakout. Mush is a prime candidate for a huge letdown. With Grossman gone, the QB situation falls right back into the chaos that it ended in last season (31st in passing yards, 32nd in passing TDS). Now let’s add in a new system in a cold weather city. Now add in a huge question mark at the #2 WR spot, a holdout rookie RB, and an injury history for Muhammad and you wonder why people consider this guy a great choice at WR. Top 40? Maybe. Top 25? No way. Chris Smith - It was only a couple of weeks back I was looking at Muhammad as a possible value pick thanks to the chemistry that had emerged between himself and Rex Grossman. At this time the Bears passing attack is in a state of flux thanks to the injury to Rex Grossman and there are other receivers to select in the sixth round than Muhammad this season. Jason Wood - It’s going to be difficult for fantasy leaguers to pass on Muhammad after his monstrous 1405 yard, 16 TD season of a year ago; but that’s what smart fantasy leaguers will do. Muhammad took the money and ran to Chicago, which fielded the worst passing offense in the league last year (nine total touchdown passes!). With a renewed emphasis on a power running game and a complete mess at QB with Rex Grossman injured once again, Muhammad will be hard pressed to deliver stats that make him an every week fantasy starter.
Cecil Lammey - Ward is one of the fiercest WRs in the game today. With Big Ben still learning the ropes Ward had only two 100 yard games in 2004. Pittsburgh will continue to run the ball with a dominant, smashmouth approach. This means that Ward’s numbers will be very pedestrian when compared to other players taken after him. With the loss of Plaxico Burress, the Steelers will rely on Ward even more, but with that conservative offense I don’t see a drastic increase in his production. Maurile Tremblay - The Steelers are the most run-oriented team in football. They attempted only 22 passes per game last year, and probably won’t throw more than 26 a game this year. That’s not enough to feed a top ten fantasy WR. Ward finished as the 28th-best fantasy WR last year, and while I expect him to move up into the top 20 this year, he won’t do much better than that as long as the Steelers forsake an aerial attack for the power running game. Jason Wood - Ward is one of the league’s better overall receivers, but the fact remains that his 1,000 yard, 4-TD season of a year ago was hardly out of left field. Ward’s 2004 season was a mirror image to his 2001 season, and he’s just as likely to finish at those levels as he is the 2002-2003 levels when he was among the league’s top-10 fantasy options. With Plaxico Burress no longer commanding attention from defenders, and the team re-committed to a heavy ground attack, betting on Ward as your #1 receiver is a risky proposition to say the least.
Marc Levin - As fantasy players we like to get a jump on top fantasy talent, but a 4th round pick on Roy Williams is unlikely to produce fruit. There is upside in an 8 TD, 15.1 yards per catch second year player, but the lack of competition for his 54 catches in 2004 will be replaced by 2005 first round pick WR Mike Williams, the signing of veteran WR Kevin Johnson and TE Marcus Pollard, and the return of 2003 first-round pick WR Charles Rogers. A possible QB battle between Harrington and Garcia could also disrupt continuity. Better risks at that similar ADP are Darrell Jackson, Nate Burleson, or Steve Smith. Aaron Rudnicki - Roy Williams got off to a great start last year with 4 TDs and nearly 300 yards in his first 3 games, but his numbers trailed off a bit after that. He missed a couple games with nagging injuries, and Kevin Jones’ emergence seemed to have a negative impact on his production. He’s yet to prove that he can regularly beat double coverage, and he’ll now have 3 new players (Charles Rogers, Mike Williams, and Marcus Pollard) competing with him for pass targets in 2005. Joey Harrington’s 54% career completion percentage is also reason for concern. David Yudkin - Detroit has a ton of weapons on offense and a QB that up until now has not done a whole lot. Everyone assumes that Roy Williams will be the primary target, but we have no idea if that’s the way things will play out. With Kevin Jones’ emergence over the second half of last year, Williams averaged 52 yards per game vs 66 with Jones out or limited due to injury. With a healthy Charles Rogers, rookie Mike Williams, Kevin Johnson, and Marcus Pollard all in the mix, Roy Williams stands to lose out by having to share.
Chris Smith - Sure Owens is an unbelievable talent but so far this season he has insulted his quarterback twice, alienated his teammates, ticked off his management, been suspended, threatened to sit out, asked to be traded and generally been ticked off and unhappy. With all those negatives listed above, why take a chance on him mid-way through the second round and especially so when more stable receivers such as Torry Holt, Marvin Harrison and Chad Johnson are also available for the pickings. Stay away from Owens unless exceptional value presents itself as this situation may get uglier still. Mark Wimer - Remember what happened with Keyshawn Johnson/Tampa Bay back in 2003? Owens is on that same path. I won’t roster Owens because I expect him to be either A) benched by the coaching staff or B) sulking on the bench due to his ever-present groin injury when the 2005 fantasy playoffs roll around.
Andy Hicks - For a receiver of his stature Steve Smith relies on his speed. After suffering a broken leg in the first week of 2004, will that speed return? The departure of Muhsin Muhammad also means that opposing defenses can put a lot of focus on Smith in the passing game. The addition of Rod Gardner provides a solid alternate and with Keary Colbert in his 2nd year big things are expected from him. At his current ranking the person who drafts him this season would expect him to carry on from his excellent 2003 season, but a lot has changed since then and he becomes poor value for those hoping for a return to those stats. Jason Wood - Smith is tiny, has one top-20 season in four years, plays for a team that isn’t going to pass that much, and will share time with not one, but two solid receivers in Keary Colbert and Rod Gardner. I just don’t understand the love affair with this guy, and can only hope that at least one owner in each of my drafts rolls the dice on him with such a high pick.
Aaron Rudnicki - Stokley’s numbers in 2004 are likely a statistical fluke that he will have difficulty replicating. Prior to his breakout season last year, his best year was 2002 in Baltimore when he finished with just 357 yards. Furthermore, last year was only the 2nd time in his 6-year career that he stayed healthy enough to play in all 16 games. The dislocated shoulder he suffered in the preseason could be a sign of things to come. Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne have clearly established themselves as the #1 and #2 WRs on this team, so Stokley will likely have some difficulty getting enough targets (or converting on as many of them as he did last year) to warrant his current ADP. Jason Wood - No disrespect to Brandon Stokley’s accomplishments a season ago (68 receptions, 1077 yards, 10 touchdowns) but if anyone thinks the Colts are going to match last year’s historic passing output, they need to brush up on their NFL history. While the Colts should remain one of the league’s best passing teams, the notion that three WRs will have 1000 yards and 10+ TDs is ludicrous and Stokley is clearly the odd man out. Let’s also not forget that Stokley has missed 42 games in his six year career and, guess what, has been sidelined this preseason with yet another injury.
David Yudkin - Bennett had 100 fantasy points over a three game stretch and 97 fantasy points in his other 13 games. Basically, he was the league’s top WR in 3 weeks but the #33 ranked WR the rest of the time. His hot streak came with Billy Volek at QB but Steve McNair returns as the starter. Other than Bennett, the Titans do not currently have another WR on their roster that has ever had more than 25 receptions. Teams adjusted last year after his outburst, and he should see double coverage on a regular basis this season.
Maurile Tremblay - Burress had one very good year, in 2002. Most people are figuring he will be Giants’ #1 WR this year, but I’m not convinced. Amani Toomer is coming off a down year, but like Burress he has fine size, speed, and overall athleticism. He has also had a generally more productive career than Burress. QB Eli Manning’s inexperience is another obstacle to Burress’ fantasy success: the entire Giant WR corps had only two TDs as a group last year. It’s likely that the Giants’ offense will center around Tiki Barber again, and production from the WR position will be limited.
Aaron Rudnicki - After Steve Smith went down to injury in week 1, Colbert was forced into the starting lineup and played remarkably well. He seemed to have a good chance at starting again this year after Muhammad left via free agency to sign with the Bears, but the recent trade for Rod Gardner puts his starting status in jeopardy. Gardner has been a productive starter during his time in Chicago and brings more size and physicality to the position, so Colbert may be relegated to slot duty. If so, it will be difficult for a #3 WR on a run-first team like Carolina to produce the type of numbers that would warrant an ADP this high.
Cecil Lammey - Coles is back with the Jets and will have no trouble getting re-acquainted with QB Chad Pennington. He only scored one TD in 2004 and should have more than that this year. However, his last season in NY he only had four 100 yard games and 5 TDs. In 2002 he had ten games of 12 fantasy points or less. He is certainly happy to be back in NY, but I don’t feel that he’s going to contribute more than some of the WRs selected behind him.
Andy Hicks - Donald Driver’s ADP has jumped about 20 positions in the last couple of months, that’s almost 2 full rounds. For those that once considered him great value around the 6th and 7th round, now must jump much higher. For those that feel he can replicate last years numbers he still may hold value, but for those like myself who are wary of what Green Bay can achieve offensively this year and don’t think Driver can consistently deliver, alarm bells should be sounding. Whatever the case, be careful of where you pull the trigger on Driver, his value has been severely eroded.
Andy Hicks - The last two seasons have shown that Marvin Harrison’s opportunities have decreased. Anyone expecting a duplication of Peyton Manning’s sensational 2004 is in for disappointment. Less production this season from Manning means less ball to the receivers and with the emergence of Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley, Marvin Harrison could slip quite a few rungs by the time 2005 closes. Harrison turns 33, which means his days as an elite receiver are likely coming to an end. At his current draft slot his upside is limited, while the downside is steep.
Will Grant - When did the Ravens suddenly become a passing team? Was there an announcement or something? Baltimore had 2500 yards passing and 13 passing TDS last season. As a team, the Ravens have had only one 1000-yard receiver in five years. A WR24 should generate about 1000 yards receiving and 7 receiving TDS. Unless Baltimore radically alters their passing game or Mason catches well in triple coverage, he isn’t going to reach that mark this season.
David Yudkin - Moss switches teams, loses an All Pro QB, goes to an outdoor arena with grass, and gets to play for a coach that loves to run the ball across the goal line. Moss had 8 TD last year from inside the 5-yard line, and he should see a in his TD total playing in Oakland. While people will point to the AFC West as the shootout division, the Raiders schedule overall is not an easy one. Moss will likely still be a Top 5 WR, but I’ve seen him going earlier in some drafts than ever before, and that’s asking for trouble given what the numbers, external factors, and schedule point to.
Andy Hicks - I can’t see a logical explanation for drafting Porter in the 5th round. That’s one round for every year Porter has played, and after 5 seasons he still hasn’t reached 1000 yards or managed to exceed a 20th ranking. At his current ADP he would need to have a career year and Randy Moss would need to get injured. With the talented Doug Gabriel and Ronald Curry itching for game time and Lamont Jordan to reintroduce the running game to Oakland, Porter is going way too high and presents no value at his current draft slot.
Aaron Rudnicki - Charles Rogers was one of the most talented WRs to enter the league in years, but he’s only been able to play in 5 games so far after breaking his collarbone in consecutive years. In addition to possibly being injury prone, Rogers has also been rumored to be a slow healer. QB Joey Harrington has been inconsistent and generally unimpressive during his 3-year career, and Kevin Jones appears to be the new focus of the offense. The Lions also demonstrated their concern about Rogers’ ability to stay healthy when they spent their top draft pick on yet another 1st round WR. With all the new additions the Lions have made on offense in the past two years, there just might not be enough opportunities available for him to finish this high.
Chris Smith - Father time may finally be catching up to the 36-year old Jimmy Smith as he hasn’t been particularly sharp this season. With the emergence of Reggie Williams and the young talent in Jacksonville, Smith may have his worst season in a long time. Probably a couple of rounds too early for a player on the downslope of his career.
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