Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players
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Undervalued WRs
Mike Brown - Kennison has been the #24 and #18 ranked receiver, respectively, the past two seasons. Kennison doesn’t get much respect because he’ll blandly get his stats. People would rather draft a guy with tremendous upside over the guy who will quietly provide production all season long. That’s fine, because sometimes you’ll hit. But for every one that hits, there will be many more that miss. Kennison is a very solid, albeit unspectacular, option as a WR2 on just about any fantasy team. David Dodds - Eddie Kennison finished the year as the 18th best WR in 2004. He had career highs in receptions (62), yards (1,086) and yards per catch (17.5). He also had 8 TDs last season (one shy of his career high) and did these things playing in just 14 games. Despite these lofty accomplishments in 2004, he is being drafted as the 41st WR this season. He enters the year as the clear cut #1 WR on one of the most explosive offensive teams in the league. This one is a no-brainer. Colin Dowling - We should start making a spot in this column where we just repeat what we’ve said before about Eddie Kennison. He’s the 41st drafted wide receiver despite finishing ahead of that ranking in each year that he has played for the Chiefs, including finishing 18th in 2004. Getting Kennison in the late ninth round after 40 receivers have been selected ought to be considered larceny. Jason Wood - Kennison finished 18th among fantasy receivers last season and no worse the WR36 in the last three seasons. He’s steadily developed into Trent Green’s most reliable wide receiver and with Johnnie Morton’s future uncertain, only Tony Gonzalez is likely to be targeted more often. While Kennison isn’t likely to deliver top-20 numbers consistently, he’s almost assuredly going to produce better than his ADP suggests. David Yudkin - Eddie Kennison ranked as the 36th, 24th, and 18th best fantasy wide receiver the past three years—yet his ADP is in the 40s. The Chiefs offense and Kennison have improved each year since the arrival of head coach Dick Vermeil, and there is nothing that would suggest a sudden demise to the offense or Kennison’s production. The Chiefs have not signed any notable free agent wide receivers and did not invest heavy in the NFL draft at WR either. All signs point to another season as a great value pick in fantasy football drafts for the upcoming season. "Barry Jive and the Uptown Five" - I love drafting Eddie Kennison as a WR4. Another huge "old WR1" value play. Kennison has been ranked 36,24, & 18 the last 3 season amongst WRs, yet no one thinks of anyone other than Priest and Gonzo as viable fantasy options from the Chiefs offense. Eddie's good for 60/900/5 almost every year. He's hasn't had a season below 15 ypc in the last 4 years with the Chiefs. Call him the "silent assassin." No one game plans for him. No one drafts him. And he'll finish the year ranked right around the Top 20 for WRs, a full 20 spots ahead of his draft position listed here (WR41). He just screams value for the owners who are willing to start the guys over the age of 25. "BassNBrew" - In 2004, Kennison finished as the 18th ranked WR, was 24th WR in 2003 and 37th WR in 2002. It’s theoretically impossible for the number one WR in a Vermeil offense not to finish in the top 40. Kennison is a table pounding buy as the 41st WR off the board. "BostonFred" - Eddie Kennison is a player I never end up with. He's not flashy, and he plays on a team whose primary focus has been Priest Holmes. But once Holmes went down last year, Kennison took over. He was the #3 WR over the last eight games, catching all eight of his TDs in the last eight games, averaging five catches for 87 yards and a TD per game. As the #41 WR selected on average, you're not drafting Kennison to start for your team. But if Priest goes down, Kennison is an automatic start. "diesel7982" - 18th, 24th, and 36th. Those are Kennison’s finishes among WRs over the last three years. With Johnnie Morton a sure cap casualty, Kennison, who is already the clear #1 WR on the Chiefs, will be the only WR on the roster with starting experience. With 1100/8 last year, how does Kennison slip to WR41? He’s a startable #2 FF WR. "EBF" - An unspectacular veteran, Kennison quietly put together a top 20 season in 2004. The Chiefs may not be quite as pass-happy as they were last year, but Kennison is still their best WR. He represents a true steal as the 41st WR selected in fantasy drafts. He can suffer a significant decline from last year’s numbers and still easily exceed his draft position. "Fullback Fro" - There is no way you can leave Eddie off this list. Since moving to KC, every year he gets no respect, and every year he puts up rock solid numbers. The KC high-powered offense will be back to its old tricks, and Eddie Kennison will be the main WR threat. Can you believe you can get last year’s twelfth ranked WR in FPG in round 9/10? Nab him and you’ll be happy owner. "joffer" - Eddie Kennison is the #1 WR option in one of the highest scoring offenses in the league. He's in his fourth year with the Chiefs and he's finished 36th, 24th, and 18th in those three years. I can't conjure a single reason why he's ranked as WR41 other than he's not a "sexy" pick. With Morton a likely cut and Samie Parker most likely to take the #2 spot, there's no one likely to steal many targets from Kennison. He's one of the safest bets on the board. Draft him as a WR3 and watch him perform like a WR2. "Jurb26" - This is a guy that I simply love every year. For some reason he never gets any respect come draft time. I guess it's always a case of several other WRs seeming to have much higher upside or potential. Well, Kennison produces! Over the last three years he has never finished worse than WR36. On top of that each of the last three years he has gotten better: 36th, 24th, and 18th are his last three finishes respectively. This is a guy that is being drafted as WR41 right now. There will come a time late in the draft where you are looking at a group of unproven but high upside WRs and Kennison. Kennison will not be the name you want to call out, but trust me if you do you will be happy you did. "LHUCKS" - The #1 WR in one of the most potent and consistent offenses in the league, Kennison reeled in almost 1100 yards in just 14 games making him a top 20 fantasy WR in ’04. I’m not sure if people are projecting fewer games played as Kennison does have a fair amount of injury risk, but his current ADP seems awfully low given Kennison’s ’04 credentials. He’s still the #1 WR in KC and that alone is enough of a reason to grab Kennison significantly before his #117 ADP. "Unlucky" - Kennison has been a steady producer in KC. Gonzalez is the #1 option, but Kennison is the clear #2. He’s the #25 WR on my board with nearly identical numbers to last year, after finishing around #20 in most leagues last year.
David Dodds - Driver finished 10th in fantasy points and 12th in targets (134) last season. What has changed this offseason? Javon Walker is holding out. The Packer defense is in shambles and could be the worst in the league. Ahman Green is in court regarding allegations of domestic abuse. Every one of these factors tells me that Favre will likely be throwing even more to Donald Driver this season. Let everyone else take the flashy Javon Walker. Donald Driver is the value pick that can win you your league. Marc Levin - Every year, I place Driver in my undervalued list, and every year he lives up to the billing. As the WR29 and usually available a full four rounds after Javon “show me the money” Walker, Driver is an incredible value play. He trailed Walker by just over two standard FF points per game in 2004, he was a top-12 fantasy receiver, and he has the full confidence of his quarterback. He actually had more targets in 2004 than Walker, and there is no reason to think that will change in 2005. Chase Stuart - Believe it or not, Donald Driver’s got the 12th most fantasy points among WRs the past three years. His 84-1208-9 season last year went widely unnoticed, as Javon Walker received all the fame for his phenomenal year. As long as Brett Favre is still playing however, Driver should be a lock for 1,000 yards and eight TDs. The Green Bay defense doesn’t look very good again this year, and the ramifications from Javon Walker’s holdout declaration in May could help Driver. Ron White - With the Packers likely to rely heavily on their passing game this season and Javon Walker a possible holdout, Driver is the main beneficiary. He battled injuries in 2003, but he had 1064 yards and nine touchdowns in 2002 and 1208 yards and nine touchdowns last season. He scored more fantasy points last season than Michael Clayton who is being drafted 14 spots ahead of Driver. Mark Wimer - Donald Driver was the 13th best fantasy WR in 2004. His all-star QB is returning for another run at a title. Driver’s chief rival for Favre’s passes, Javon Walker, is staging a holdout and antagonizing Favre. Why is Donald Driver the 29th WR selected in early drafts this year? I honestly have no idea. He has immense value at such a lowly draft pick. Jason Wood - Donald Driver enjoyed a career year with 1208 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2004, finishing as the 10th best fantasy receiver. This was his second top-10 finish in the last three seasons and yet he’s being drafted as the 29th WR off the board? As long as Brett Favre is under center, there’s no reason to think Driver should fall off considerably and, at worst, should be drafted as a solid WR2 this year. David Yudkin - Donald Driver has ranked as a top ten fantasy WR twice in the past three seasons and in the other was plagued with injuries much of the season. He set or matched career highs in receptions, receiving yardage, and receiving TDs last year and enters the year healthy. Even with the emergence of Javon Walker as a top five WR, there was plenty of production to go around for Driver. Driver actually out-produced Walker over the second half of last season (42-665-5 vs. 43-599-5). "Bagger" - Driver was the ninth ranked WR in 2004 and yet he is being drafted as the 29th receiver in 2005. Why? Ferguson does not show any signs of taking Driver’s receptions, and Walker may lose playing time due to a contract dispute. With Favre coming back for another season, Driver should be able to replicate similar numbers in 2005, even if Walker does not lose any time to his contract dispute. In two of the past three years Driver has gone for over 1,000 yards and nine TDs. You have the opportunity to grab him in the middle of the sixth round. Take this opportunity and run with it. This is the very definition of value. "BostonFred" - Donald Driver was the tenth best WR in the league last year. He's being drafted as the 29th wide receiver. Why? Because Javon Walker had a better year than he did? Driver actually outperformed Walker from week four on. Meanwhile, Walker holding out this season only helps Driver's case to be Favre's favorite receiver this year. "Couch Potato" - Here's a guy who apparently can't get any respect in the fantasy world. He had 167 fantasy points in 2002 and 175 in 2004, ranking him 10th among WRs both years (his numbers weren't up to par in 2003 because he struggled all year with injuries), and he's ranked this preseason as WR29?! There is no reason to think the Green Bay offense will change much, and if anything Javon Walker's threatened holdout and Favre's subsequent scathing comments may have made Driver more of a favorite than before. Favre is still Favre, he'll still be throwing to Driver, and I'll project slightly better numbers than before. Let's go with 1,200-10, 180 fantasy points, ADP35 and WR9. "Family Matters" - Coming off a top ten finish in 2004, Driver has demonstrated that Favre trusts him again. With and ADP of WR29, he will easily outperform his draft position. With a defense that will have trouble stopping USC, Favre & Co. should be throwing the ball at least as much as last year. Unless Walker holds out, don’t expect Driver to have another top ten season. However, top 15 is very realistic for him in 2005. "Fullback Fro" - Donald Driver has excelled since grabbing the starting WR spot in Green Bay. With the emergence of WR Javon Walker on the other side, Driver has been getting single coverage from the #2 corners and exploiting it. In 2005, we should see a continuation of his fantasy success at a fraction of Walker’s price. With struggling defense and an offensive that lost some key blockers, Green Bay will most likely be trailing early and often this year which should mean good receiving numbers for all the wide outs. With and ADP of 80, at WR29 Driver can get you top 10 numbers AGAIN. "Tick" - Donald Driver is definitely undervalued. He has finished as WR10 in two of the last three years, and while I don't project him to repeat that finish, even a dropoff of 100 yards and 2 TDs would leave him around WR18 in my projections. Throw in the possibility of Javon Walker holding out or alienating Brett Favre further, and it's not inconceivable that Driver could finish in the top ten yet again.
David Dodds - Despite finishing as the 15th best WR last season, Rod is getting no love in drafts this season. Since becoming a full-time starter in 1997, Rod has never finished below 29th at the position. He has gained over 1,000 yards receiving 8 of his last 9 years as well. The Chiefs are likely to release Johnnie Morton further cementing a starting job for Rod this season. He should easily outperform WR34 numbers. Colin Dowling - What is it about Rod Smith that causes people to constantly undervalue him? Here is a guy that has averaged 91 receptions and just shy of seven touchdowns a year for the last five seasons. He’s getting old, to be sure, but forgive me if I don’t think Ashley Lelie is going to push Smith from WR15 (his 2004 rank) to WR34 all by himself. Smith isn’t the top-tier receiver he was a few years ago, but the notion of him going in the ninth round is absolutely ridiculous and offers great value for the savvy drafter. Clayton Gray - Sure, Smith is getting old, but he shows little signs of slowing down. His yardage, YPC, and TD numbers from last season were his highest totals since 2001. The guy is still a very capable WR. Smith and his teammate Ashley Lelie look to put up similar stats this season. However, Smith is lasting about two rounds longer and looks to be a much better value for 2005. Marc Levin - Rod Smith returned to the ranks of starting fantasy WR in 2004. He had two more targets per game than teammate Ashley Lelie and the same number of touchdowns with an increase to 14.5 yards per catch after stagnating at under 12 yards per catch the previous three years. He is clearly still the most important receiver in the Broncos’ pass attack and a favorite target of QB Jake Plummer. As the WR34 receiver with a 9th round ADP, expect Smith to well exceed his draft spot and to outperform WRs drafted two rounds earlier. Aaron Rudnicki - Since becoming a starter with the Broncos in 1997, Rod Smith has never finished a season ranked lower than #29 among fantasy WRs. The retirement of Shannon Sharpe and trade of Clinton Portis in 2004 allowed him to become a bigger part of the offense, and he responded with his best season since 2001. Jake Plummer is also coming off the best season of his career, in which he threw 27 TDs. Chris Smith - He is getting older, but he is a big time bargain as the 34th receiver taken. He will exceed that this season and could greatly exceed it if Jake Plummer plays well. Ron White - Rod Smith has been one of the most under rated receivers in fantasy football, and it appears this year is no different. He may be 34 years old, but he put up 1144 yards and seven touchdowns last season. The Broncos did little to improve their receiving corps, so Smith will again be Jake Plummer’s go to guy. There are many #2 and #3 receivers being drafted ahead of Smith. Jason Wood - Rod Smith isn’t getting any younger, but he’s coming off a 79 catch, 1144 yard, 7 touchdown season that saw him finish among the top 15 fantasy receivers. Smith is fanatical about his fitness, and the Broncos return with no material changes to their offensive personnel so it’s illogical to assume Smith is due for a precipitous falloff. While he may not be a sure bet to finish among the top 15, he’s hardly risky enough to justify his very low ADP. David Yudkin - In eight seasons as a starting wide receiver, Rod Smith has ranked no worse than 29th. Last year, he ranked 15th—his fifth season in the top 15. The Broncos return almost the entire offense intact and made few changes at all at WR. While Smith is clearly winding down his career, he still should be an integral part of Denver’s passing attack for at least one more season. Worse case scenario, he should be a viable WR2 in a 12-team league but currently is drafting as a bottom tier WR3. "Barry Jive and the Uptown Five" - In a redraft, you'll be hard pressed to find a WR of Rod Smith's quality and steady production at the lower end of the WR3s. Even as he declines in value from the glory days of 2000/2001, he's still averaging 80/1000/5 TDs per season over the last 3 years, good enough for a fantasy rank no worse than 25 in any of those 3 seasons. When Plummer needs a clutch 3rd down reception, Rod's locked in his radar. That's as steady as it gets for the WR3 slot on your fantasy roster. There's no better value than the "old WR1" in the draft as "upside" owners draft the latest and greatest second year wideout poised for a breakout. "BassNBrew" - Ashley Lelie and Smith finished last year ranked WR23 and WR15 respectively. Same coach, same offense, and same QB as last season, so what’s the explanation for the drop off? What you have here is a case where fantasy owners can’t make up their mind as to who the number one Denver WR will be this year, so they just wait until one is drafted and then try to acquire whoever remains. In the process, both of their ADPs fall. "BostonFred" - Rod Smith was the fifteenth best WR in the league last year but is getting drafted as the 34th. Yes, he'll be 35 this year. But he had better yards per catch in 2004 than he has since 2000, so he's clearly not slowing down. Plummer made a huge leap in the Denver offense in 2004, and he clearly preferred Smith to Lelie, throwing thirty more times towards Smith than Lelie. Rod Smith's always underrated because people want to draft the new shiny thing, but with an ADP as the first pick in the ninth round, he could be your WR4. That's too good a bargain to pass up. "LHUCKS" - A candidate for most underrated fantasy WR in the history of the hobby, Rod Smith had another spectacular year in ’04 to the tune of 1144 yards and 7 TDs. Good enough to rank him as a top 20 WR of ’04. I’m not sure if people are down on him because of the emergence of Lelie or if it's because he’s just another year older, but Rod is a very safe bet to repeat his numbers because not a lot has changed in Denver. Rod = value once again in ’05.
Mike Anderson - Fantasy owners have short memories and are a fickle bunch. That’s the only thing that can explain the average draft position of 6.04, or 26th WR off the board, for Anquan Boldin. Boldin set receiving records in his rookie season with 1,377 yards and 8 TDs, finishing as the 4th highest fantasy scoring WR in 2003. He was in every fantasy top 10 list going into last season but missed 6 games with a knee injury, and the fantasy world has forgotten about him. Not only is he healthy and ready to go this season, but the Cardinals added multiple MVP and Super Bowl Champion QB Kurt Warner. Clayton Gray - Boldin has played in only 26 games over his young career and has already accumulated 2000 receiving yards. Why is he lasting until the last half of round seven? This is a classic case of “what have you done for me lately” syndrome. After missing the first six games of the 2004 season, Boldin finished the year with a mere 623 yards and a single TD. Those are mediocre numbers on the surface, but they are outstanding considering the guy was never 100% healthy. He will be physically fit this year, and he will reward his fantasy owners. Aaron Rudnicki - Boldin failed to replicate the success from his rookie season, but a preseason knee injury and inconsistent QB play played a huge role. In 2005, he should be healthy and will benefit from the addition of former MVP Kurt Warner. He’ll also face fewer double teams than he did before thanks to the emergence of Larry Fitzgerald as a big-play threat at the other WR spot. Chase Stuart - Anquan Boldin caught 101 passes for 1,377 yards as a rookie in 2003. Despite tearing his meniscus in training camp and missing six games, Boldin’s 157 receptions through two seasons is the most in league history. He routinely makes the spectacular catch, has excellent body control and a tireless work ethic. His 6’1, 220 lb frame will make him an ideal red zone target once the Cardinals offense improves. With new QB Kurt Warner and rookie RB J.J. Arrington, the pieces are in place for the Cardinals and Boldin to score a lot of touchdowns. Maurile Tremblay - Boldin had a spectacular rookie season in 2003, finishing as the fourth-best fantasy WR. A preseason knee injury prevented him from repeating that success in 2004, but he heads into the current season in good health. Boldin lacks great speed but has fantastic hands and is quick enough to get separation from defenders and create big plays as a runner after the catch. Fantasy owners are either forgetting the clinic he put on in 2003 or they are writing it off as a fluke; but either way, Boldin is being undervalued as the twenty-sixth WR off the board. "Bloom" - Boldin showed no erosion in his skills last year after returning from a knee injury – no reason to think that 2003 was a fluke. QB play in Arizona should be improved and more stable with the addition of Kurt Warner. Boldin possesses fantasy WR1 talent that is almost unquestioned at this point in his career. There’s no reason to think that the TD balance between Boldin and Fitzgerald will be so slanted towards Fitzgerald again this year. Boldin is just starting into his prime years and has already flashed the kind of ability that fantasy WR1s have. "Family Matters" - Last year Boldin was injured and only played ten games. While his performance did nothing to simulate his rookie season, expectations for 2005 run much higher. Adding Warner to the mix should provide the Cards with a reliable passing attack anchored by Boldin & Fitzgerald. JJ Arrington should help keep defenses honest and allow Warner time to find his WRs. Boldin’s ADP of WR26 provides you with an upside of top 10-15. "SammyJankis" - In 2003, Boldin had one of the greatest rookie seasons ever, amassing almost 1400 yards and scoring eight times. In 2004, it was the worst of times for Boldin. He missed half the season with injury, was moved out of the slot where he had previously been very effective and played with three different struggling QBs. Despite that, he still finished as the #34 ranked WR in the FBG scoring system over the last eight games. This year, Boldin is healthy, is back in the slot (his best position), has JJ Arrington to take the pressure off of him and now has a veteran QB to throw him the ball. In 2005, Boldin should return to form as one of the league’s elite WRs and easily out perform his #76 overall ADP. "Tick" - I know Boldin's a hard player to peg, since just about everything has changed since his incredible rookie season. However, with Warner at QB behind a good line, I expect a lot of passing in Arizona this year, and I expect Boldin to be the #1 guy there. Despite coming off a major injury, in the ten games Boldin played, he caught 56 balls to Fitzgerald's 32, a trend I expect to continue when Boldin is at full strength this season. I project him out to 85/1105/7, well down from his rookie numbers but still an incredible steal as the 26th WR off the board.
Mike Brown - After growing into his job last year with the first 1,000-yard season of his career, Lelie appears primed to take the next big step towards the elite class of NFL receivers. Teammate Rod Smith turned in a renaissance season last year, and his stats basically matched Lelie’s. But Smith will be 35 this year, and it’ll soon be Lelie’s time to shine. My guess is that time is now. Maurile Tremblay - In his third year as a pro, Lelie enjoyed his first 1,000-yard season in 2004 and finished as the #23 fantasy WR. For some reason, fantasy owners are apparently expecting him to regress in his fourth year: he is being drafted, on average, as the thirty-first WR. I, on the other hand, expect improvement. Lelie is already an outstanding deep threat, and as he gains experience he should become a more effective receiver on the intermediate patterns as well. I believe a 1,250-yard 2005 season is well within Lelie’s grasp. "BassNBrew" - Lelie and Rod Smith finished last year ranked WR23 and WR15 respectively. Same coach, same offense, and same QB as last season, so what’s the explanation for the drop off? What you have here is a case where fantasy owners can’t make up their mind as to who the number one Denver WR will be this year, so they just wait until one is drafted and then try to acquire whoever remains. In the process, both of their ADPs fall. "diesel7982" - Last year, Lelie finished as the WR23, with 1084/7. He emerged as one of the game’s best deep threats but still struggled to develop the short and intermediate parts of his game. With Rod Smith slowing down, Lelie is in-line to become the #1 WR in an offense that will likely produce 4000+ passing yards. Expect to see Lelie’s first season as a top 20 WR. "joffer" - I like to look for young WRs that show steady improvement through their first couple of years (e.g. Reggie Wayne), and Lelie fits that bill. Ashley Lelie had a nice breakout season last year finishing as the 23rd ranked WR. Along with an insane YPC of 20.1, Lelie's consistency from week to week was solid, as he had at least 50 yards in 13 of 16 games. His current ADP of WR31 likely has him at the bottom of a large, tightly-ranked group of middle tier WRs, however I've seen enough improvement from Lelie and the Denver passing game to believe it's likely he's capable of finishing in the top 15, making him a nice value at #86 overall.
Cathy Fazio - Houshmandzadeh came out of seemingly nowhere last year and stepped in for Peter Warrick who suffered a fractured shin. And he made Warrick an afterthought with his 73 receptions for 978 yards and four touchdowns. Working alongside the immensely gifted receiver Chad Johnson will continue to open up opportunities for Houshmandzadeh in 2005. Cecil Lammey - Housh is a great young receiver that is fitting in nicely with former college teammate Chad Johnson. His numbers have steadily increased every year, and I expect this year to be big for him. He had some monster games (including a 171 performance against NE) near the end of last season. He also seemed to be building a great rapport with Carson Palmer. With Rudi Johnson keeping defenses focused on the run and Chad Johnson commanding the coverage, Housh should have himself one helluva year. "diesel7982" - “Housh” produced 978/4, finishing as WR31 despite not starting until Peter Warrick’s injury in week three. Over the second half of the season, Housh became arguably Carson Palmer’s favorite target. Assuming mutual improvement between the two of them, we should see Housh easy break 1000 yards for the first time in his career and finish well ahead of WR38. "LHUCKS" - Housh had a breakout year with 73 receptions for nearly 1000 yards in his third year. I have modest expectations for the Bengals’ offense in ’05, and I see no reason why TJ can’t at the very least match his ’04 numbers which made him the #30 ranked WR in ’04. For an improving WR in an improving offense I see him as a lock to provide value at his current ADP.
Aaron Rudnicki - Apart from his nightmare 2003 season in Tampa, Keyshawn has never finished a season ranked lower than #29 among fantasy wide receivers. Even though Drew Bledsoe’s best years are well behind him, he’s still a capable passer when given time and should provide an upgrade from Vinny Testaverde. Keyshawn remains one of the best possession WRs in the game, and should provide Bledsoe with a reliable target in the red zone. "Bloom" - Keyshawn is still the #1 WR in the Dallas passing game. He has NEVER averaged less than 55 receiving yards a game over a season in his career. The top WRs are showing less signs of erosion in their skills as they enter their 30s; there’s no reason to predict a drop-off due to age. Keyshawn’s size is ideal for a red zone target and he should continue to get looks there. He has been extremely durable over the course of his career. I see no reason to predict anything less than a solid WR3 season from Johnson this year. "joffer" - Keyshawn will be 33 this year and has almost certainly lost a step, but this is not a guy that depends on speed to make his living. WR27 last year and I don't see nearly enough evidence to warrant dropping him nineteen spots for 2005. While he's no candidate to explode for 1300/10 at his age, not every pick needs to be an "upside" pick. KJ's consistency is a nice attribute for a WR3. Exit Vinny Testaverde, enter Drew Bledsoe, and there's not a significant difference in ability at QB. Add a solid running game with Julius Jones and the Cowboys' offense should improve overall. "Jurb26" - It looks like a lot of people are really buying into to the Dallas running game and defense because the team's best WR is being taken as WR46. This strikes me as ridiculously low. Outside of his ten game season in 2003, Key has never finished worse than WR29. Yes, we all know that Bill wants to win with defense, and he has made some changes to accommodate that this offseason. He is not going to forget about passing the ball altogether though. Key still has plenty left in the tank and enters his tenth year this season. He will be the #1 WR in Dal and as such will be a steal as the 46th WR off the board.
Will Grant - Bennett finished seventh among fantasy WRs in 2004, and that was with Derrick Mason hauling in 96 receptions as well. Mason is gone, and Bennett is the go to guy now. Calico is back from injury, and Roby and Jones are good young prospects. All of them are good enough to keep defenses honest, yet not good enough to cut into Bennett’s receptions. Bennett should be a top 12 QB in 2005 and should easily finish higher than the WR16 he’s being drafted at. "SammyJankis" - What does Bennett have to do to signal that he’s amongst the league’s elite wide receivers? Finish as the sixth overall WR (using FBG’s scoring system)? Check. Put up better numbers than big names like Torry Holt, Chad Johnson and Andre Johnson? Check. Have a coming out party on Monday Night Football? Check. But owners are taking 14 other WRs off the board ahead of Bennett, fearing that he overachieved in 2004 and will plummet back to earth this year. Titans GM Floyd Reese disagrees. In a May interview Floyd said, "When you compare where (Bennett) started to where he is today, you're talking about light years. And when you see somebody escalate that quickly, that consistently, where's it going to end? To be honest, I don't know.” "Unlucky" - Many will write off last year as a fluke, and perhaps it was in the way it unfolded. However, with the loss of Mason, Bennett is the only option left. He has to have some talent to put up those numbers. His TDs may decline, but he can make up for it with steady production through the season. Bennett is currently the #10 WR on my board.
Chris Smith - Last season as a rookie, Colbert put up 754 receiving yards and five touchdowns. He will improve on that this season and should be much better than his 44th receiver taken slot would indicate. "Bagger" - In Colbert’s rookie season he had an impressive 750+ yards receiving and five TDs, making him the 36th ranked receiver. With Muhammad gone to Chicago in free agency and Smith’s health questionable after last year’s season-ending injury, Colbert is primed to be a top 25 wide receiver in 2005. Colbert is currently being taken as the 42nd wide receiver in the tenth round of drafts. If Smith loses more playing time in 2005, Colbert should be able to break into the top 20 of receivers. To be able to draft a player with that potential in the tenth round makes Colbert the greatest value pick of the wide receivers. "Iwannabeacowboybaby" - In Carolina, they showed last season that they could move the ball in the air. With Steve Smith falling to injury early last season, Colbert stepped up his rookie season and was productive. With Muhsin Muhammed leaving for Chicago, Colbert’s second season will be enjoyable to watch for those of us wise enough to pick him up later in the draft.
Colin Dowling - Fitzgerald finished his rookie season as the 30th rated receiver despite spending most of the season catching balls from an erratic quarterback and not having another decent receiver keeping defenses honest on the other side of the field. This season, Fitzgerald will have both and it should only help. He may not outperform his spot as the 20th rated receiver by much, but on the flip-side, would you be all that surprised if he ended up in the top-10 this year after a season of highlight-reel receptions on the deep ball? Mark Wimer - What’s not to like? Fitzgerald is Coach Green’s favorite red-zone target (he caught eight TDs last year, while Bryant and Boldin only managed one apiece). Anquan Boldin is threatening a holdout. Kurt Warner is a huge upgrade over Josh McCown, John Navarre, and Shaun King; and the Cardinals figure to have an improved rushing attack thanks to J.J. Arrington, forcing teams to respect the run. Fitzgerald’s offensive teammates and the esteem of his head coach will spell a big fantasy season. He could easily land in the top ten among fantasy wide receivers – at 22nd WR selected he’s a monster value. "Unlucky" - Fitzgerald is the real deal. I look for big improvements in year two, as Fitzgerald sits at #12 on my board. Boldin doesn’t worry me, as there will be enough passes for two WRs to put up big numbers. (Think Moss and Carter.)
Cathy Fazio - Brandon Lloyd experienced an up and down year in 2004. There was a five week span in the middle of the season when he averaged five receptions for 70 yards and one touchdown a game. But that was countered by weeks of one or two receptions a game. Lloyd is now the sole number one receiver in San Francisco with the loss of Cedrick Wilson and Curtis Conway. If he can bring some consistency to his game, Lloyd represents good value at this spot. Chris Smith - Many folks thought Lloyd would put up big numbers last season, but he struggled along with the entire 49ers offense. A new offense was brought in along with a rookie quarterback, and Lloyd will have a better season in 2005. Lloyd did end up catching six touchdowns in only 13 games played in 2004. "Jurb26" - I know this one wont sit very well with a lot of folks, as I'm sure he burned his owners last year. However, Lloyd does appear to be the #1 and best WR in SF, a team that should not be good. He managed a #47 finish amongst WR last year in only 13 games and is being taken as of now as the 48th WR. He seems to have the physical tools to become a very good player in the NFL and if the QB play settles a bit could make a serous move this year. Either way, any NFL team whose #1 WR is being drafted as a fantasy #4 looks to me like great value. Don't let last year's disappointment cause you to forget about Lloyd.
Chase Stuart - Boy 1,405 yards and 16 TDs just isn’t what it used to be, eh? Muhsin Muhammad was far and away the top receiver in football in 2004, yet on average TWENTY other WRs are going ahead of him? Sure Muhammad was average in 2001 and 2002 with Chris Weinke and Rodney Peete throwing to him, but he ranked top three in receptions in both 1999 and 2000. Muhammad ranked fourth in targets last year, and he’s got a great chance to lead the league in targets for the Bears this year. Mark Wimer - Muhsin Muhammad is an aging star who exploded in the second half of 2004 then relocated to Chicago. However, he is clearly the best WR on Chicago’s team, and the Bears are going to run an offense similar to the Panthers’, where Muhammad excelled (power running game centered on Cedric Benson with 2 primary receivers). Just based on the vast number of passes likely to come Muhammad’s way, he could significantly outperform 21st wide receiver. If one of the other WRs – Justin Gage, Bobby Wade or Bernard Berrian – can elevate their game to provide a legitimate #2 presence, Muhammad is likely to do very well. "EBF" - Muhammad was dynamite in 2004, finishing the season as the clear #1 fantasy WR. It would be somewhat foolish to expect a repeat of last year’s improbable numbers, but he still seems underrated as the 25th WR taken in drafts. He is clearly Chicago’s best receiving option, and he seems like a solid bet as a second fantasy WR. The Bears didn’t produce a top 50 fantasy WR last season, but the return of Rex Grossman is cause for optimism.
"Barry Jive and the Uptown Five" - Here's a great value play for the owners who are paying attention. The playoffs this past two seasons have shown Branch's value. Three of his last 4 playoff games have been 100-yd efforts with a pair of TDs to supplement the yardage totals. For most of the Tom Brady era, the NE WRs have been a mystery as there were so many guys who got playing time and it was a guessing game to see who was going to go "big" on any given week. T. Brown is now esentially out of the picture. Patten is gone. David Terrell is, well, David Terrell. Branch is going to be the clear WR1 for this team, and I fully expect his production to push him into the Pro Bowl. Great, GREAT value as WR27. Subtract 10 spots from that ranking and I think you have Branch's FLOOR. "Iwannabeacowboybaby" - When healthy, there’s no way there are 26 wide receivers better than him in the NFL. He showed us all just how good he can be in last year’s playoffs and earned Super Bowl MVP honors. Branch puts together an entire season and finishes inside the top 20 at wide receiver.
"EBF" - Michael Clayton finished his rookie season as the #13 overall fantasy WR. He converted a high number of his targets into catches and was among the league’s best receivers in yards after the catch. While he may not get enough targets to break into the league’s elite, he seems like a solid value as the 15th WR off the board. He showed tremendous potential as a rookie and is now entrenched as Tampa’s clear #1 receiving threat. "Iwannabeacowboybaby" - When you hear Coach Gruden talk about the Tampa Bay offense, you don’t have to wait long to hear him talk about second year wide receiver Michael Clayton. Clayton caught 80 balls for 1,193 yards and seven TDs his rookie season. With an excellent new running back on the team to keep defenses honest, Clayton will build on his rookie season and easily post top ten wide receivers numbers in 2005.
Mike Brown - McCareins didn’t exactly take New York by storm, totaling 770 yards and just 4 touchdowns. Those aren’t terrible stats, but with a great opportunity to put up numbers with Santana Moss struggling, McCareins ended up being fairly invisible most weeks. So what’s different now? Well, everything. New coordinator Mike Heimerdinger (who formerly worked with McCareins in Tennessee) is now with the Jets, pledging to open up the offense. That’s good news for McCareins. At worst, he should be amongst the league’s best number two receivers playing alongside Laveranues Coles. And with Coles’ recent injury history, McCareins could find himself doing a lot more than that. Andy Hicks - The last time Justin McCareins played under new Jets offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger was at Tennessee in 2003. He finished that season as the 22nd ranked wide receiver. Having worked with Chad Pennington for one year, McCareins could be a very nice late selection for your wide receiver corp. He played well at times last season improving as the year went on. His big, physical frame will be a perfect complement to Laveranues Coles, and he presents definite late value.
"Family Matters" - Coming off another collarbone injury, many fantasy owners were again disappointed in Rogers. Last year the Lions drafted Roy Williams and this year Mike Williams. Will there be enough balls to go around? You bet. Rogers is still very talented. Barring injury, he could easily lead his team this year. He’s bulked and stronger which should make him more durable while maintaining his speed. He should be motivated after what happened the last two years and the subsequent drafting of two more WRs in the first round. His ADP is WR39 and his upside is top ten. If healthy, he will easily outperform his draft position. "SammyJankis" - Most folks have high expectations for the Lions’ offense this year, which makes it strange that 38 wide receivers are being taken ahead of Charles Rogers. It’s true that Roy Williams will be the Lions top wideout and the Lions used their first round choice of Mike Williams. However Rogers is expected to be at full strength when training camp opens and should be the clear cut #2 WR for Detroit. Most owners look for upside when drafting their backups, and the former #2 overall NFL draft selection has that in spades.
"Tick" - Coles has finished as WR13 in two of the past three seasons. Last season was an aberration, as the putrid Redskins offense held him down, but he was still seventh in the league in receptions. This season he reunites with Chad Pennington, and I expect them to pick up where they left off. With the new vertical emphasis in New York, I see Coles finally getting his TD numbers up a bit to go with his yards and receptions. At his ADP of 51 (WR17), he'll be a bargain.
"Bloom" - Evans was one of the top WRs in the 2nd half last year as a rookie. Evans showed the well rounded set of skills (YAC, skills in the air, dependable possession WR, speed to get deep) that a stud fantasy WR should have – the rare dangerous deep threat that can also convert the clutch third downs. Evans’s ability to make the tough catch and create big plays with his downfield speed and open field running ability should offset most of the drag on his stats from having a green QB in Losman. Unlike last year, Evans gets to be a major part of the offense from day one, so its hard to predict his numbers going any direction but up from last year, which should mean 1000 yards and ten TDs as a baseline for Evans 2005 numbers.
"BassNBrew" - 2002: 9-92-1 (rookie), 2003: 34-510-6, 2004: 56-872-3 and a 38th place WR ranking. Nice progression in my book. Now move Patten’s 44-800-7 inside the beltway and add another growth ring to Troy Brown. The end result is end more opportunity for improvement.
"Bagger" - Harrison had an “off” year going for over 1,100 yards and 15 TDs in 2004. I fully expect his receiving yardage to revert to the mean in the 1,300 yard range making him the second best WR in 2005. While his ADP is WR3 and 20th overall, the fact that you can pair up a top RB in the first round with a top WR in the late second round makes him a huge value play. Typically he should be gone around the turn between the first and second rounds. The ability to draft someone like Edgerrin James, Marvin Harrison, and then Tatum Bell in the first three rounds has me salivating for around the #4 spot in this year’s fantasy drafts.
Maurile Tremblay - Moss showed his ability as a pass-receiver in 2003 when he finished as the #8 fantasy receiver in the league. He has blazing speed, the toughness to catch the ball in traffic, and some of the most dizzying open-field moves you will see as a runner after the catch. He is coming off a very poor 2004 season, and for that reason fantasy owners are writing him off as a WR3 at best. They are overreacting. Moss will be the primary target in the Redskins’ revamped passing attack this year and should be a decent WR2.
Cecil Lammey - The happiest person in the world when Randy Moss signed with the Raiders was Jerry Porter. Okay, that may be hyperbole, but he had to be pleased at getting such a playmaker for a teammate. What Moss will do is force the defensive coverage his way which means Porter will have lots of man on man coverage. Jerry has been somewhat inconsistent in his pro career, but has always flashed enormous potential. Now working with Kerry Collins in his 2nd year in that offense (plus the addition of Moss and LaMont Jordan) will mean that Porter has a great chance of fulfilling that potential.
Chris Smith - If you are looking for a mid-round pick with the talent to light it up this season, look no further than Stallworth. He had 767 receiving yards and five touchdowns a year ago but has the ability to jump up into the top fifteen at the receiver position. He’s certainly worth a look in round eleven.
"Fullback Fro" - What has changed since last year? Is losing Pollard going to cause a drop in Stokley’s numbers? Although it is hard to imagine Manning repeating last years record performance, I am not worried about Manning getting Stokley the ball. Though I am not normally an advocate for drafting number three receivers, Indy is an offensive juggernaught, and Manning is as good as any in distributing the ball based on what the Defense gives him. With teams committing to try and stop Wayne and Harrison, Stokley will get his numbers again. You can get him in round 6/7, where Wayne and Harrison are going three and four rounds earlier. He ended at WR11 last year people. WR11!!! That’s insane production from a slot WR.
Mike Anderson - Depending on the implications of Charles Rogers breaking his collar bone for two straight seasons, Mike Williams is either the #2 WR on a team with limitless weapons and a 3 time Pro-Bowl QB or perhaps the best slot receiver in the game (challenging Brandon Stokley for the title). At 6’5” 229 lbs, Williams has Pro Bowl talent and would easily create mismatches at the slot. Should Rogers not be able to go, Williams will step into an outside receiver role and challenge for ROY. Either way, with an average draft position of 8.10, he is going off the board a minimum of 2 rounds behind where he will perform.
Cecil Lammey - That’s that rookie. Well, he was a rookie last year. This year Roy will be the leading receiver on a high powered offense. That means good things for Roy owners. Williams has great concentration and makes the circus catch look like second nature. He also has strong hands and great leaping ability, which make him a good option in the red zone. He will benefit even more from better QB play. Jeff Garcia is licking his chops in anticipation of commanding this offense.
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