Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players
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| Introduction • QB: [under] [over] • RB: [under] [over] • WR: [under] [over] • TE: [under] [over] | |||||||||||||||||||
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Overvalued TEs
David Dodds - A healthy Heap with no other viable options at receiver might be worth the 3rd TE spot. That was exactly his situation the last couple of years. But Heap is not healthy and it is not known when he can begin practicing on his surgically repaired ankle. Additionally the Ravens added veteran Derrick Mason and rookie Mark Clayton to shore up the receiving unit this offseason. All these things point to an over-valued player. Cecil Lammey - Heap has the potential to be one of the top TEs in the game today. Unfortunately for him, he also has a tendency to get banged up quite frequently. Okay, so let’s say Heap plays a full season this year, what kind of productivity can we expect? You the type that you’d expect from the TE3 in a fantasy draft. His career high for TDs in a season is 6. His career high for yardage in a season is 836. Now Baltimore has surrounded more weapons around Kyle Boller. The arrival of Derrick Mason will only mean a decline in opportunity for Heap. Mark Wimer - Heap finally has some help at the wide receiver position, where Derrick Mason, a two-time Pro-Bowler, takes over for the undistinguished Travis Taylor and blazing fast Mark Clayton, a rookie from Oklahoma, will provide a deep threat. There will be more viable options to throw at in Baltimore this year. However, the team did not upgrade their QB, so woeful Kyle Boller will still be floating lame ducks at his guys when he’s not throwing at their feet. More competition for a very small pie of passing will result in a down year for Heap – he will almost certainly not be the #3 NFL TE by year’s end. "Barry Jive and the Uptown Five" - This is the guy who is over-priced, not because of his ability, but because of the offense in which he plays. The Ravens are run, run, run, and run some more. With Jamal Lewis and that O-Line, that is not going to change. Heap has built his reputation as the #1 target in the passing game over the last couple years and is valued as if he is going to be in the future. I don't see that happening with the additions of Mark Clayton and Derrick Mason. Boller is finally going to have some quality, reliable targets on the outside in the coming years. Knowing that, answer me this. If Heap was good for 60-68 receptions as the ONLY viable target in the passing game the past couple seasons, just how many balls do you expect him to catch with Jamal running all day and Mason/Clayton getting their fair share on the outside? Heap's ceiling has dropped considerably this offseason, but his draft status isn't reflecting that. "BassNBrew" - I don’t like taking drafting guys at their ceiling unless they are at the very top of the list. In Heap’s six games last year, he only netted a TE#5 ranking. Heap’s injuries concern me, and the addition of some quality WR targets will give Boller some other options. Just too much risk and uncertainty for me. "Bloom" - Strike One: Heap is hurt and recovery from surgery will cut into his offseason preparation. Strike Two: Heap is probably the third best receiving option on the team now behind Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton – it’s hard to know if the lack of a starting quality WR in Baltimore inflated Heap’s production over the last three years. Strike Three: Heap plays on a ball control team which does not make for gaudy numbers in the passing game. All of these factors point to a down season for Heap, certainly nothing to cause enough optimism to take him as the third TE off the board with four or five options whose prospects look just as good as Heap’s behind him. "diesel7982" - Heap is a fantastic TE, when healthy. Unfortunately, “when healthy” has been all too often used as a qualifier to describe Heap in his career. Heap underwent ankle surgery early in the offseason, and has recently undergone shoulder surgery that will keep him off the field until mid-August at the earliest. In addition, while Heap has been the focus of the Ravens offense “when healthy” he will now share balls with Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton. Avoid him until the TE10-12 range. "Fullback Fro" - Todd Heap just underwent surgery to his collarbone. Hopefully, he will be ready by training camp, but this is not good. Anytime you have a collarbone injury in the NFL your days are numbered. Players use their shoulder way too much--- especially at the TE position. Heap is just too risky of a play with other safer TEs that will go off the board behind him. "joffer" - Heap is coming off an injury riddled 2004, and now it looks like he could miss a lot of training camp recovering from shoulder surgery. Todd is an incredible talent at TE, but Baltimore added two new targets for Kyle Boller this offseason in Mark Clayton and Derrick Mason, meaning some of those targets that he got in 2002 and 2003 just because he was the only one open are going to disappear. There is quite a bit of talent at TE in the NFL right now, passing on Heap as the TE3 and grabbing someone like Crumpler or McMichael a few rounds later will pay dividends in other positions.
Colin Dowling - I understand the excitement. I really do. Miller should be a nice outlet for the Steelers for many years. However, fantasy players often get way too excited about rookie tight ends. Rarely do they know how to block well enough to stay on the field, and when they do, they often end up doing more blocking then pass-catching. Many rookie tight ends of late have shown flashes, but to rely on them for consistency is a fool’s game. I’d rather select a player with a more defined role in the offense then take a chance on Miller, whose role won’t be decided until week one of the regular season. Jason Wood - Miller may be this year’s most offensively adept rookie tight end, and his groin injury may have dropped his draft position more than it should have, but the fact remains that no Steelers tight end has caught more than 17 (yes, 17!) passes in a season over the last five years. To assume that a rookie TE is going to step in and make a major impact; particularly one who hasn’t been able to work out or practice in months recovering from hernia surgery, is foolhardy. "Bagger" - Pittsburgh’s performance out of their tight ends has been abysmal the past few years. While they have not had premier talent at the tight end position, I also believe that they have better options down the field. Even with the departure of Burress, Big Ben will be focusing the passing attack through Hines Ward and the other receivers and backs before a rookie tight end. I would rather use a later draft pick to draft a potential break out TE such as Ben Troupe or Ben Watson who are in systems that have proven to use tight ends effectively. In a redraft league, a 12th round pick is better used on a known commodity such as a premier kicker or defense than a rookie tight end in a system that has proven to be a wasteland for tight end fantasy performance. "BassNBrew" - I can’t see a rookie TE making an impact, especially in PIT. I’ll pass on this Kool-Aid. "diesel7982" - Miller will eventually be a very good player in the NFL but doesn’t look to make much impact in his rookie season. He will be limited throughout the offseason thanks to hernia surgery and is entering an offense which has not produced a top 15 TE since 1994. Give Miller a year to learn the offense and for the offense to learn how to use him. Avoid him as anything but a final round pick in 2005. "Family Matters" - With an ADP of TE13, Miller will be challenged to succeed and deliver at his ADP. First, rookie TEs do not have a history of doing well in their first year. Second, Miller is in a run first offense that will throw the ball more on a need to rather than a want to basis. He will be used more for his blocking skills to help the powerful Pittsburgh running attack and more sparingly as a receiver. "Iwannabeacowboybaby" - Sure Heath Miller has good hands, but Pittsburgh runs the ball first so he better be able to block well if he expects playing time. It may take the rookie some time to develop into the tight end many owners are drafting him at. At TE 13, there are some veteran TEs you can still take that will post quality numbers. "SammyJankis" - Rookie tight ends, like rookie wide receivers, rarely produce in their first season. If you want to assume that Miller could be as productive as the Steelers’ top fantasy tight end last year, then you’re drafting a player that will gain 89 yards and score three times. If you want to assume that Miller can achieve the combined stats of every tight end on the Steelers’ roster last year, then you’re drafting 240 yards and five TDs. Rookie tight ends seldom produce and the Steelers’ rarely throw to the tight end. This adds up to Miller being a wasted pick in redraft leagues.
Mike Brown - Wiggins was a solid scorer last year and provided remarkable consistency from week to week. The problem is not with Wiggins, however; it’s with the Vikings offense as a whole. With Randy Moss out of the picture, that means that the attention that used to be given to him will now be able to focus on the other players in the offense. Wiggins may still be solid but probably shouldn’t be ahead of guys like Eric Johnson and Bubba Franks. Clayton Gray - Wiggins had a very good 2004 campaign and was an excellent free agent pick-up for many fantasy teams. However, with the return of Jim Kleinsasser from injury, Wiggins will face competition for playing time and will not match his totals from last season. Many fantasy owners will likely end up dropping him in favor of a new free agent darling. Marc Levin - While no TE in the tenth round represents particularly “bad” value, Wiggins is overvalued as the TE10. His 2004 opportunities were primarily due to injuries to other players, and the return of 2003 starting TE Jim Kleinsasser’s likely means fewer opportunities. Competition at the position is too much risk for a TE starter. The advice here is to instead pick a similarly slotted Eric Johnson, a later pick of LJ Smith or Daniel Graham, who have more solid roles in their teams’ passing attack, or a value selection with more upside in Doug Jolley or Marcus Pollard. Ron White - The Vikings all out air assault from last season is likely gone. Instead they are planning to run the ball more. Wiggins benefited greatly by the knee injury to Jim Kleinsasser. With Kleinsasser returning, Wiggins’ role will be diminished. There are many comparable tight ends who can be drafted much later. "EBF" - In seven NFL seasons, Jermaine Wiggins has only exceeded 250 receiving yards once. He did finish second on the team in targets last season, but I don’t expect the high number of opportunities to continue now that Minnesota has a full stable of healthy WRs. While he’s not a huge reach as the 10th TE taken, he does seem like a significant risk to disappoint. "Tick" - Wiggins came out of nowhere last season to finish as the #8 TE in the absence of Jim Kleinsasser, lost to injury. However, Kleinsasser returns this season, and while people say Wiggins is the better receiver of the two, Kleinsasser was the #10 TE two years ago, so he clearly has ability. Throw in the superior blocking skills that made him the first TE to be franchised, and Kleinsasser figures to see the field a lot more than Wiggins this season. Additionally, near the goal line Kleinsasser will be more effective in play action, as opposing defenses know he's such a good run-blocker. Wiggins is going as TE10, 105th overall, which is way too high for a guy who might not end the season as the most productive TE on his team. "Unlucky" - Wiggins came from nowhere to be huge for MIN last year. I think most of that was due to Kleinsasser’s injury. Losing Moss won’t help, and I see Wiggins returning to the bottom of the barrel. He’s currently the #20 TE on my board.
"Bloom" - Don’t assume that Clark will absorb all of Pollard’s modest stats from last year – both TEs are receiving targets in the Indy passing game, and Ben Hartsock is a decent enough receiver to merit some targets. Clark is a frustratingly inconsistent fantasy producer and will be next to worthless in weeks that he does not score TDs. He’s also missed games in both of his seasons in the NFL. At least four TEs with ADPs lower than Clark’s are safer options with just as much upside, if not more. "BostonFred" - Peyton Manning threw an NFL record 49 touchdowns last year. Clark caught five of them to be the #11 TE. Yet Clark is being drafted as the #7 TE. People are drafting Clark well ahead of TEs who outproduced him, and I don't understand it. If Manning regresses, Clark is one of the Colts most like to see his stats suffer. Pollard, the better blocking TE from last year, will be replaced by a second year TE, which may mean Clark will be forced to stay in more to block. And if Edge has a better year inside the five (he converted just 5 of 23 short range opportunities) then Clark's short TD opportunities may suffer. None of those things scream improvement to me, so why are people drafting him ahead of players who outperformed him last year? "Jurb26" - Most fantasy players are probably looking at Clark and seeing a boatload of potential now that Pollard has been shipped to Detroit. I disagree with that though. I think that Hartsock will step in and fill the role left by Pollard. Indy loves its two TE sets, and I'm sure he will at least be given plenty of opportunity to so do. Clark is not greatly overrated IMO though. He is being taken as TE7, I just don't think he is top ten. He is still a solid play for 2005 though.
"BostonFred" - I know he had a great year. I just don't want to spend a third round pick to find out if he can do it again. He averaged 6.5 receptions per game for his first eleven games, then plummetted to three catches a game over the last four when everyone knew he was going for the TD record. He's a very impressive player coming off a very impressive year, but I don't trust him to repeat last year's numbers. "Couch Potato" - As mentioned in my discussion of Drew Brees above, I think the Chargers are in for a rough season in 2005 - due in part to a much more difficult schedule and due in part to the Chargers simply returning, more or less, to usual form. Gates went 24-345-4 in 4 games against Hou, Ten, Jax, and Cle. In 2005 those AFC defenses will be replaced by NE, Pit, Buf, and Mia. Teams will make stopping Gates a priority since San Diego's other receiving options are generally sub par. Look for Antonio to take a hit in the stats department. I project him much closer to the next TE tier: 750-7 and 117 fantasy points, ADP55 and TE3. "LHUCKS" - I have Antonio ranked as my #2 TE but have him nowhere near his #35 ADP. With a healthy McCardell, LT and Caldwell I expect Gates' targets to decrease. A healthy LT very well could have been a significant contributor to Gates' end of season drop-off. Marty would prefer to run the football and LT allows him that luxury when healthy. I believe the stars aligned for Gates last year. Subsequently I also believe he's currently overvalued in the overall rankings. Do yourself a favor and take another position this high in the draft.
David Dodds - Eric Johnson had a career year last year, but it remains to be seen whether he can sustain that level of production into 2005. Rookie QB Alex Smith is expected to be the starter and will likely need Eric staying on the line blocking a lot so he doesn’t get creamed. Eric finished the season last year as the 8th best TE. But with an ADP of TE9 (with so many questions still looming about the 49ers team), I would look for better value elsewhere. Mark Wimer - The 49ers this season: a new coach takes over a cap-strapped team with a three-cylinder running game, and then said coach hands the keys to their jalopy of an offense to a raw rookie QB from a second-tier NCAA school. Stay far away from the 49ers receivers this year. We haven’t seen something like this in the NFL since Kyle Boller took over the Raven’s offense two years ago (116/224 for a 51.8 completion percentage over 11 games, 1260 yards passing, seven TDs and nine interceptions). "LHUCKS" - I have three concerns with respect to Johnson’s ’05 ADP: 1) Johnson doesn't have the athleticism that most of the great TEs have. 2) Johnson has some question marks surrounding him with a new offensive system. How Johnson will be used is anybody's guess...at the very least it's an unknown at this point. 3) With a potential rookie QB chucking the rock in the second half of the season, Johnson could see some very poor QB play once the Niners are out of the playoff picture and Smith is given an opportunity to gain some experience.
Cathy Fazio - As the sixth tight end off the board, this seems too early to draft a tight end who entering his fourth year in the NFL and has yet to play a complete season. Shockey is a gifted receiver and will likely improve over last season when he made 61 receptions for 666 yards. But there are other tight ends with just as much upside like Randy McMichael, Dallas Clark, or Eric Johnson that could be drafted a few rounds later. Cecil Lammey - Ah, the hype machine known as Jeremy Shockey. Well, at least he’s not Kellen Winslow Jr.! Shockey is a very intense player and has a great passion for the game. He also is more hype than productivity. Eli Manning will no doubt look his way in 2005, but will Shockey be able to stay on the field? He has had some injury concerns and is the type of wild card that could be put in Tom Coughlin’s doghouse at any time. Plaxico Burress should take away some of the red zone targets that Jeremy tended to get.
"Barry Jive and the Uptown Five" - I've never got the Bubba-love as a TE1. Just don't see it. Only once in his 5 seasons in GB has he broken 40 receptions. His ypc has never been over 11, and 3 years it's been below 9.0. With Bubba, you're banking on the play-action game at the goal-line. Many an Ahman Green owner has broken a remote control as Favre play-action to Ahman over the pile from the 1 yd line only to hit Franks in the flats for a 1 yd TD pass. Franks will get one of those every other week, but will leave you behind you opponent's TE in the FF scoring column in every other week when he posts a 3-27-0 game. I like to think of the TE position as one of those where you can really stick it to your opponent each week by having one of the upper echelon guys. Franks just isn't one of them and is someone I would never rely on as a weekly starter.
Mike Brown - It’s sort of unfair to mention Gonzalez as lacking in value, but the premise lies more in two factors outside of his control. A) Antonio Gates is the up-and-comer, and deserves to be the first tight end off the board. B) The emergence of many other tight ends means you probably don’t need to go out and get a stud tight end this year. Wait and get value, like in 2004 with Gates.
"Iwannabeacowboybaby" - Witten represented great value last season while catching 87 passes for nearly 1000 yards. However, with a new QB, defenses becoming more aware of his abilities and Dallas trying to run the football to win games this year, Witten’s numbers will dip down from last season. He’ll be decent but will fall short of the lofty draft position of TE 4.
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