Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players
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| Introduction • QB: [under] [over] • RB: [under] [over] • WR: [under] [over] • TE: [under] [over] | |||||||||||||||||||
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Overvalued RBs
Colin Dowling - Eh….no. Foster has shown promise in small doses. In fact, he showed enough promise that the team used a high selection on Eric Shelton, a big, bruising touchdown machine from Louisville. Even if you think Shelton won’t take carries from Foster, are you sure Nick Goings (who was insanely productive last season) won’t get some touches? What about Stephen Davis, who claims to be on the road to recovery? DeShaun Foster may end up getting the bulk of the carries. He may end up better off than 26th among running backs, but there are just too many variables yet to be settled for my taste to select him that high on draft day. Clayton Gray - How is this guy going in the fourth round? There is absolutely no reason to take DeShaun Foster this early. He simply can not stay healthy, and he has way too much competition for his job. Nothing more needs to be said. Andy Hicks - Although DeShaun Foster is likely to be a third choice RB on most peoples rosters this year, he is not worth that price at any cost. He has missed 30 games in three seasons. He has only posted one 100 yard game and that was against the inept Kansas City Chiefs. Stephen Davis may return from injury, Eric Shelton was drafted in the second round and last years fill in, Nick Goings is still around. Two major injuries in three years, a deep backfield and average production so far mean Foster should be considered much lower than he is currently. Aaron Rudnicki - When healthy, Foster has been very impressive, but his short career has been plagued by injuries, and he’s missed 12 games or more in two of his first three seasons. He should get first crack at the starting RB job if Stephen Davis can’t recover, but rookie Eric Shelton is a legitimate threat for the job and may steal goalline duties as well. Chris Smith - Foster is an interesting player. For sure he has the talent to step in and rush for 1,500 yards in a season. However he hasn’t been able to stay healthy, and now he has to fend off not only proven veteran Stephen Davis but also powerful rookie runner Eric Shelton. I would rather take a chance on Shelton emerging in my fantasy draft using a pick several rounds later. Chase Stuart - In only three seasons, DeShaun Foster has missed thirty NFL games due to injury. Foster’s broken clavicle ended his 2004 season, and arthroscopic surgery followed by microfracture surgery on his left knee finished his 2003 season. With Nick Goings, rookie Eric Shelton and perhaps a healthy Stephen Davis, the Panthers – who ranked 28th in rushing last year – will lighten Foster’s workload in hopes of keeping him on the field. Jason Wood - Foster has missed 30 out of a possible 48 regular season games in his 3-year career and has a whopping 2 rushing touchdowns in 18 career games played. If that’s not enough to convince you to stay far away; remember that he’s still no lock for the lion’s share of carries with Stephen Davis, Nick Goings and Eric Shelton also vying for touches. Why anyone would risk a 4th or 5th round selection on a back who is neither a lock to start nor someone who seems equipped to handle a heavy workload? David Yudkin - In three NFL seasons, DeShaun Foster has missed 30 games. For those that struggle with math, that means he’s played in 18 games. Foster has averaged only 6.7 fantasy points per game played, and the #24 RB normally averages around 10.0 fantasy ppg. Foster has “potential disappointment” written all over him. And let’s forget that Stephen Davis, rookie Eric Shelton, and Nick Goings are still currently all on the roster, and Foster might split time even if he could stay healthy. "BassNBrew" - The Panthers drafted Eric Shelton for a reason and most likely it’s a lack of faith in Foster. In the current ADP listing, Foster is the first back you’ll encounter that fits the following fantasy crippling criteria: will likely get pulled at the goal line, rookie drafted to challenge for position, another proven better RB on the roster (Davis), other proven competition on the roster (Goings). There are plenty of other cheaper calculated risks between Foster’s draft position and RB50 that are much better value. "Fullback Fro" - DeShaun Foster is another guy who when plays can be an effective fantasy producer. The problem is: when is he going to play? Kindly put, DeShaun has missed more than a significant amount of time in his short career. So much so, that Carolina went out and drafted a rookie RB who John Fox has already indicated will get substantial carries. This does not bode well for Foster, who you would have to spend a 4th round pick to snag. "Unlucky" - Foster has played 18 games and carried the ball 172 times, at 4.0 YPC. I’m not sold on him just because he ripped KC for 174 yards last year. Guess what, everybody ripped KC. I see Shelton winning this job and little chance that Foster starts the whole year. Foster is currently #58 on my board.
David Dodds - Ahman Green is being drafted as the 10th best RB this season. And most of that stems from his great 2003 campaign where he finished 2nd at the position. Last year he finished 13th among backs and could easily be much worse this season. The Packers have a horrible (if not the worst) defense in the league so the team may need to abandon the running game at times. Ahman also has a domestic abuse claim hanging over his head that could turn ugly. Andy Hicks - Ahman Green declined in both production and opportunities last season. At 29 years of age, Green is approaching the twilight of his prime, and with talented backs in Najeh Davenport and Tony Fisher on the roster he will not be utilized as he was in the past. Add in the appearance that the Packers are on the decline and unable to generate dominating leads as in days gone by, and extreme caution should be used when drafting Ahman Green. A recent arrest for domestic violence also carries the risk of a league suspension once the case is finalized. Chase Stuart - The Packers poor offseason and Green’s injury history should make the savvy fantasy owner leery of drafting him in 2005. The loss of guards Mike Wahle and Marco Rivera and a porous defense will prevent Green Bay from replicating the power running attack that fueled their success in 2003. Green has seen his receiving yards continue to decline, as the Packers young WRs mature. Green is still a productive RB, but he lacks the upside that you expect with a first round pick. Ron White - The Packers offensive line will be in shambles early in the season. The defense also lost many key players to free agency. The Packers will have to rely on Brett Favre, especially early in the season. The Packers seem to be a team on the decline, and Green numbers may suffer as a result. Backs that are being drafted after Green are Clinton Portis, Jamal Lewis, and many others that will likely outperform him. "Bloom" - One of strongest parts of Ahman’s game historically is his involvement in the passing game, which dropped for the 3rd straight year in 2004 – a troubling trend. Green’s ranking is still getting some mileage from his tremendous 2003 season, which looks more like an aberration than a breakout season. Green gets nicked up more than you would like for your RB1. Najeh Davenport impressed in his one game as the starter last year and could push Green for carries this year. All of these factors plus his off the field issues point to Green not being a stable enough investment to be the tenth RB off the board and a first round pick in 12 team leagues. "Jurb26" - At this time last year, it looked like Green was in one of the best situation of any RB in the league. Well a lot has changed since then. The O-line lost two of its best run blockers in both guards, the defense somehow seems to have gotten worse (or at least no better), and the team seems to have gotten back to letting Favre be the center of the offense. Green has seen his role in the passing game decrease greatly over the past five years, from over 70 rec in 2000 all the way down to only 40 last year. Green is being drafted as the tenth RB off the board right now, but with the changes in store for GB I think it will be very difficult for him to live up to that spot. "LHUCKS" - The Packers have a brutal schedule (Pittsburgh, Baltimore etc.), and Green isn't getting any younger and had some limited injury trouble in '04. Combine these factors with a very capable Davenport waiting in the wings, and I see risk and disappointment for Green owners in ’05. "SammyJankis" - Green has all kind of warning signs that should make owners leery of drafting him as their first RB. After returning from a rib injury in week 13, Green didn’t break 100 yards in a game and scored only one touchdown the rest of the year. Off the field, Green is going through a nasty divorce that includes a domestic violence charge against him. On the field, Green has lost two key offensive linemen in Mike Wahle and Marco Rivera. Owners that draft Green ahead of players like Corey Dillon, Kevin Jones and Tiki Barber will likely find themselves disappointed.
Mike Brown - Besides injury risks, another factor working against Holmes this year is that Kansas City has a known commodity in Larry Johnson to back him up. Johnson took over when Holmes got hurt and rolled for 11 touchdowns in 6 games. There’s no need to lean so heavily on Holmes during the regular season anymore, and Dick Vermeil will concern himself more with setting up a playoff-caliber team than Priest Holmes’ rushing totals. I just don’t think he’ll have the opportunity to perform as the #4 overall player. Colin Dowling - When healthy, Holmes is definitely one of the top two or three players in fantasy football. But I’m not about to risk the fourth overall pick on a guy that has experienced mounting injuries in the last couple of seasons and will be 31 this season. Holmes is a great fantasy pick if you can be sure of grabbing his able backup Larry Johnson in a later round. However, if you select Holmes and miss out on Johnson, you’ll be sweating many Sundays. I’d rather steer clear of the headache. Cecil Lammey - Holmes has had some injury troubles recently, and it has led to more playing time for his backups. Thus, Larry Johnson was able to prove his worth, and it will lead to a decline in Holmes touches. In order to keep Priest healthy for a playoff run, the Chiefs are going to employ some sort of RBBC. Priest should still have solid numbers, but getting taken out of games will hurt his output. He is definitely overvalued as the RB3. Ron White - People seem to have forgotten that Priest almost retired this offseason. Coach Vermeil has already stated they would like to reduce Holmes’ workload, and now that they know what Larry Johnson can do, they won’t abuse him. He will still likely be a top ten back, but at 32 and coming off another major injury, top three is not likely. "BostonFred" - Look, I love Priest Holmes this year. I think he's got a good chance at being the top running back again this year. He was the top running back last year before he got hurt. But he's 32 years old, has missed time in two of his last three seasons, and his backup is going in the early sixth round before the guy with 1.4 gets to make his pick. I would love to have the Kansas City Running Back, but if I have to spend the fourth overal pick AND a fifth rounder to lock it up, I'm going to have to pass. "Iwannabeacowboybaby" - One of the greatest fantasy football backs looks to finally be slowing down. As the season develops, I think the wear and tear will again catch up with Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson will have a strong end to the 2005 season. With the fourth overall pick of a draft, you want your player to be getting stronger as the season goes on, not weaker.
Cathy Fazio - There was only two weeks in 2004 that Jackson rushed for over 100 yards. He shared carries with Marshall Faulk, who though he may not be starting in St. Louis will still maintain a significant role and should not be forgotten. As the season progressed in 2004, Jackson did begin to get more of the carries, but they were still shared with Faulk. I am not convinced that this will change in 2005 even if Jackson is listed as the starter, making him a risky draft choice at this spot. Jason Wood - Steven Jackson is a talented runner with good size and speed, and his impressive 5.0 yards per carry as a rookie likely has fantasy gamers excited about the opportunity of seeing Jackson in a full-time role. But the enthusiasm needs to be tempered by the following considerations. One, Jackson only had 134 carries so the sample size isn’t particularly convincing. Two, Jackson missed several games to injury last year. Three, the Rams have ranked near the bottom of the league in rushing attempts under Martz. Finally, Marshall Faulk is still on the team and will see his fair share of touches. All this adds up to letting someone else risk a mid 2nd rounder on Jackson. "Bagger" - I believe Jackson has the ability to be a top 15 running back…just not in 2005. Despite his talent, Marshall Faulk is still in a Rams uniform and will share carries with Jackson. Jackson’s ADP of RB16 and 21st overall is just too high because of this. Drafting a running back that will share a significant amount of the carries in the late second round is just too risky and is the type of pick that can ruin a season for your team. He will have to perform at an optimal level to justify that draft position and leaves no room for error. This is on the opposite end of the value spectrum, and as such Jackson is overrated. "BostonFred" - Steven Jackson had two 100 yard games last year. One was against San Francisco, where he carried 26 times for 119 yards against the worst team in the league while Marshall Faulk was out. The other was against Philadelphia, who had already clinched home field throughout the playoffs. He had 19 catches on the season while Faulk had 50, so he'll likely be pulled pretty often on third downs. He's the lead back in a RBBC on a team that had the fifth most pass attempts and fourth fewest rush attempts in the league. I'm stumped as to why he's going in the second round, except that he plays on a team that used to have the best offense in football, and he had a big game on national television during the playoffs. "SammyJankis" - Jackson and Faulk will switch roles this year, with Jackson becoming the primary ball carrier. But while Jackson will become the lead dog, the Rams simply don’t run the football enough to warrant taking their top runner as the 16th overall back. The Rams showed a frustrating tendency to abandon the run last year. In ten of St. Louis’ games in 2004, no running back had more than 15 carries. The Rams’ 381 team rushing attempts in 2004 were 30th amongst NFL teams. Neither of the Rams’ backs finished in the top 25 RBs in 2004 under the FBG’s scoring system (finishing 29th and 33rd respectively). To take Jackson this high is a reach. "Tick" - Jackson had a promising rookie year behind Marshall Faulk and has been named the primary RB by the coaching staff in the offseason. However, his high ADP makes him overvalued. Faulk is still a great receiver and blocker and will certainly be in on most passing downs. The low number of rushing attempts by the Rams (32th, 28th, 30th over the past three seasons in attempts) combined with the lack of receiving stats mean Jackson would have to score double-digit TDs and average close to 5 yards per attempt to justify his draft spot. One or the other of those things might happen, but predicting both is too ambitious. I'll pass on Jackson this season in redrafts.
David Yudkin - Willis McGahee stepped in for Travis Henry last year and had a huge second half of the season. There have been several players in recent seasons (Clinton Portis, Jamal Lewis, Fred Taylor, and Michael Bennett to name a few) that posted great numbers over the latter parts of seasons that did not do markedly better over the course of a full season. For McGahee to rank as high as he’s projected, we will need an extensive workload (the top five RBs last year averaged 385 touches last year) and maintain the phenomenal scoring pace as well (13 TDs in 12 starts). Given his injury history, one has to wonder if the Bills will allocate such heavy a workload to McGahee. "Bloom" - It’s hard to project 20 rushing TDs for McGahee, which is what he would have to get to match last year’s second half production. McGahee’s YPC was pedestrian, and he had minimal receiving stats – he did not have more than 150 total yards in any game last year. His entry into the elite RBs is based on continued multiple TD games, which is no sure thing, as defenses should gameplan for him and force the green QB JP Losman to beat them. The first half of the first round is for proven producers, and Willis is not there yet. "diesel7982" - McGahee was incredibly good last year after taking over for Travis Henry in week six, producing around 97 total yards and one TD per game. While the total yardage looks to be repeatable, McGahee will not score at the same rate. JP Losman will certainly experience his share of growing pains, and the offensive line and defense have suffered losses in the offseason. McGahee will certainly be a very good RB this year, but he represents no value at RB5. "LHUCKS" - Two-thirds of a season does not a surefire fantasy monster make. Very few human beings can take the pounding that 300+ carries in the NFL entails. Emmitt, Edge, CuMar...these guys are freaks of nature, not the norm. I'm not saying he can't do it (as a matter of fact, he's ranked #8 on my RB list). He actually proved a lot by taking on 284 carries last year. But what I will not do is take his increased level of risk over the likes of Deuce, Tiki and Portis...all big time fantasy producers whom I consider to carry less risk. "SammyJankis" - Blowing your first round pick in a redraft league is like losing a final four team early in an NCAA tournament pool, you’re not out of it completely, but from that point on you’re fighting an uphill battle. For that reason, your first round pick not only has to be able to post big numbers but needs to have a limited downside as well. McGahee has plenty of warning signs. He was repeatedly dinged up in 2004. His quarterback, J.P. Losman is a first year starter and a second year pro. He lost his best offensive lineman in LT Jonas Jennings. In 2004, McGahee had seven 100 yard games, but these games came against defenses ranked 31st (MIA), 27th (ARI), 5th (NYJ), 29th (STL), 23rd (SEA), 32nd (CLE) and 20th (SF) against the run. McGahee is simply too big of a gamble to be the fifth running back off the board. "Unlucky" - McGahee will be the featured RB in BUF, but I am not a fan of his 4.0 YPC last year or his lack of receiving (compared to other top RBs). His TDs should be double digit, but teams will focus on McGahee and force Losman to beat them. McGahee is currently the #11 RB on my board.
Cecil Lammey - Portis exploded onto the scene in Washington last year with his first carry that went 64 yards for a TD. Unfortunately for him that was the highlight of his season. He had only five 100 yard rushing games and scored only 5 rushing TDs on the season. He did have 40 receptions but scored 20 or more fantasy points only 4 times in 2004. Washington hasn’t made any significant moves on offense that would lead to an improvement in CP’s numbers. Mark Wimer - Clinton Portis struggled in the scoring department during his first year in Washington (343/1315/5 rushing with 40/235/2 receiving) and managed a mere 3.8 yards per carry behind the Redskin’s OL. Part of the problem was a poor passing game that allowed teams to key on Portis, and there hasn’t been a 2005 upgrade in WR personnel despite free agent moves. Ladell Betts is still around, and he averaged 4.1 yards per carry last year (90/371/1) – coach Gibbs likes to use a big back in short-yardage situations. Portis is just not a good candidate to finish with top-10 fantasy numbers during 2005. "Bloom" - Portis’ ranking is based on his Denver years – his YPC last year was 30% off his Denver average, and his TDs were down over 60% from his time as a Bronco. Washington is still going nowhere as a team, and Portis only went over 100 yards in redskin wins last year. Nothing Washington did in the offseason or draft makes me think their win total will go up this year, which does not bode well for Portis. Portis has not had a spotless durability record and suffered a somewhat serious injury late last year (torn pec). The bottom line is that Portis has yet to show that he’s a true fantasy RB1 outside of Denver, and he should not be drafted in the first round until he does. "EBF" - Though Portis was inconsistent in his first season away from Denver, he still managed to finish the season as the #11 RB in fantasy football. He certainly has the talent to justify his current status as the 8th RB taken in this year’s drafts, but I think he’s going a bit too early. Washington figures to have one of the most anemic passing attacks in the NFL. Portis may get a lot of carries, but he could once again find running room scarce as opposing defenses key on stopping him. "Iwannabeacowboybaby" - Clinton Portis carried the ball 53 more times last season yet gained almost 300 yards less than the year before. He went from scoring 15 TDs in 2002, 14 TDs in 2003, to just a dismal five TDs in 2004. Those owners who are drafting him while thinking of the days with him in the Denver running system will again be frustrated with this season’s output as a Redskin.
Jason Wood - Domanick Davis is a talented and productive running back, who finished 5th last year using FBG scoring. That said I see him as one of the riskier consensus top-10 selections and would be far more comfortable with him as a mid- to late-second round selection. Davis’ YPC fell to 3.9 last year and he missed time due to injury for the 2nd time in as many years in the league. More worrisome is the team’s selection of Vernand Morency from Oklahoma State. Although Morency is an unproven rookie, he ran in a nearly identical zone-blocking scheme in college that the Texans use, and it seems the coaching staff would prefer to limit Davis’ carries to some extent. "BassNBrew" - Why pay sticker price when the Westbrook, Barber, Bell, and R. Johnson equivalents can be had a full round later on clearance? "EBF" - Domanick Davis was an elite scorer last season. Many would argue that he’s an elite player, but I feel that his production has been something of a mirage and that his fantasy totals will decrease as his workload is lowered to a more appropriate level. He has a history of inconsistent running and seems like a very risky proposition as the 7th RB taken in drafts. A ranking in the low teens seems more appropriate to me when I look at the risk/reward involved with DD. "Family Matters" - Davis' ADP a little high unless you’re talking PPR league. Davis had one of the lowest YPC last year at 3.9 behind a poor run blocking O line. This year they plan to use more check down option in the offense which could mean more receptions for Davis. But they’ve stated that in order to do that they want to limit his rushes to keep him fresh and healthy. That could mean fewer goal line carries as well. If you are drafting him in a non PPR league then RB7 is too high. And unless he gets another 300+ carries and a higher YPC of 4.25 or better then you should wait until round two to draft Davis.
Cecil Lammey - JJ had a smashing debut on Thanksgiving vs. Chicago. He followed that game by a phenomenal Monday night game vs. Seattle. Scoring 6 TDs in a matter of 5 days is certainly a remarkable feat. However, JJ as the RB12 is a stretch because we simply haven’t seen him on a full time basis. Jones has a tendency to get banged up and the Cowboys have taken note. They drafted Marion Barber, a very capable back, and signed former 1,000 yard rusher Anthony Thomas. Jones also hasn’t displayed the type of hands that one would want to see out of a premier RB. "Bagger" - Jones wowed many in the NFL and fantasy leagues alike in the second half of the 2004 season, his rookie year. The star out of Notre Dame showed flashes of brilliance rushing for over 800 yards and seven TDs in only eight games. As a result, Jones is being taken as the 12th RB and 14th overall in 2005 fantasy drafts. While I believe he will be a top 20 back, Anthony Thomas should take enough snaps away from Jones to not justify his early second round draft status. There is about a three point per game difference between the 12th ranked RB and the 20th ranked RB, and that is about the amount of production I have Thomas taking in 2005. Jones may be a top 12 back in the future, but if you draft him in 2005 at that level, you will be disappointed. "Jurb26" - Jones is currently being drafted as RB12 (or a RB1 on your team) mainly due to his coach. How many people would really feel comfortable though having JJ as their RB1? Yes, he looked fantastic at times last year. Problem is, he has never shown the ability to full carry the load. Not in college and not last year. Dallas in turn brought in two very good RBs this offseason in Barber and A-train. I can't help but feel that these guys will limit Jones' role in the offense enough to make him less than a true RB1. Guys like: K.Jones, Tiki, Rudi, Martin, Westy, and Jordan are all going later than Jones and appear to be much safer plays. "LHUCKS" - First, Jerry Jones is already on record saying that he'd like to keep Jones to less than 20 carries per game. Second, the team brought in Anthony Thomas, a proven between the tackles type of runner that the Boys had been going after for quite some time. No matter how you slice it, you don't bring in a proven runner like A-Train if you don't have some concerns at the RB position. Lastly and most importantly, Jones suffered not one but two separate injuries that limited his playing time in '04. Looking at this situation objectively it is more likely we're going to see a much lower touch count for Julius Jones than what many expect given his current lofty ADP.
David Dodds - Simply put, Jamal Lewis does not catch enough passes to be an elite fantasy RB. In 2003, when he managed 2,066 yards rushing and 14 rushing TDs, he still only ranked as the 4th best running back in the league. Jamal had a whopping 387 carries that year as well. With a capable backup in Chester Taylor, Jamal Lewis is not likely to repeat the 2003 performance anytime soon. At an ADP of RB9, Jamal is a reach in 2005. "Bagger" - Lewis is being taken in the late first round currently. He is in jail and will miss the start of training camp. He also missed one-fourth of the 2004 season as well as the entire 2001 campaign due to injuries. Other than his amazing 2003 season, he has never been a top ten running back, yet people are drafting him as the ninth RB. Jail…check. Injuries…check. Isolated success as a top 10 back…check. Overvalued…check. "Iwannabeacowboybaby" - Jamal Lewis had just ten receptions all of last year and has just one receiving TD in his career. That means for him to justify a top ten pick, he has to put up huge rushing totals. He’s capable but with all of his outside distractions and a capable back up in Chester Taylor, he’s risky to be picked in the top ten. "Unlucky" - Lewis will be back, but I feel 2003 was a fluke. His carries, YPC, and TDs all spiked in 2003. Everything fell into place that year. I expect a year more in line with his other performances, and thus Lewis is the #18 RB on my board.
Colin Dowling - The truth hurts, but here it is: despite his immense talents, Fred Taylor hasn’t been an elite running back in some time. He simply doesn’t score enough. One season lacking touchdowns can be considered a fluke, but Taylor hasn’t had double-digit scores since Bill Clinton was in office. Add in that there is some concern that he’s already injured and might miss some or all of the upcoming season, and selecting him as an RB2 is simply a risk that I wouldn’t advise taking. Aaron Rudnicki - Fred Taylor managed to string together 46 straight starts over the past 3 seasons and proved that he wasn’t as fragile as his nickname suggests. He injured his MCL and missed the last 2 games of the season, however, and recent reports suggest his recovery is progressing very slowly. Even if he is able to recover in time for training camp, this seems like it could be the type of injury that lingers. The Jaguars also appear to be shifting to a more wide open passing attack that should reduce the number of rush attempts, and Taylor is coming off a season that saw him only reach the endzone 3 times. While he certainly has the talent to outperform this spot, he carries a ton of risk here as well. Chris Smith - Taylor is having terrible problems with injuries this offseason, and that should be a huge red flag to fantasy owners considering his past injury woes. I will take a chance on another running back before I take Taylor in round three thank you very much.
"Barry Jive and the Uptown Five" - Being a Big XII college football fan, I've watched Chris Brown several years. A big, upright runner who puts his nose in there pretty well. The only problem with that is he's not the most durable of the bunch. Played 11 games his rookie year as the under-study and 11 games last year as the feature. Not the greatest. But the most troubling thing for me is the overhaul on the offensive line. Brad Hopkins is ancient, and Michael Roos is a bit of a reach. While Brown may have some fine yardage days, the TD total will be low (only 6TD in 2004). Heck, Troy Fleming might have as many receiving TDs from the FB spot as Brown does rushing. "Fullback Fro" - The guy has talent. The guy has turf toe. The guy busts off long TD runs. The guy has a broken hand. The guy plays half the time. YOU CAN’T TAKE A GUY THIS EARLY WHO WILL ONLY PLAY HALF THE TIME. There are many other guys that offer significant value in the middle of the third round that won’t cause you the headache.
Marc Levin - The second overall pick is a tempting RB2, but the RB22 slot is too high a price to pay. You will likely have to start Brown from day one. The Miami rush attack and his youth make that a big risk. There’s a decent chance either Lamar Gordon or Ricky Williams earns the early season starts or creates a RBBC situation. The revamped offensive line needs time to develop cohesion. Miami’s paltry 384 attempts at 3.49 YPC in 2004 is also not encouraging. While Brown may blossom by mid-season, can you afford to wait that long for a third round RB2? "joffer" - Rookies that gained their draft position through a great combine workout scare me. Brown's measurables are terrific, but he hasn't had the track record in college and is going to a tough situation in Miami with a volatile QB job and a questionable offensive line. Add in Ricky Williams threatening to turn training camp into a soap opera, and there's too many risks surrounding Ronnie Brown to burn a third round pick on.
"Barry Jive and the Uptown Five" - I've arlready written about two overrated RBs, but I can't let this opportunity pass me by. If you've read some of my musings on the boards regarding rookies, you'll recall that I'm a bit of a character guy. I put BIG RED X's next to players names if they have serious issues in this department. I mean I won't draft them as Mr. Irrelevant. I simply refuse to throw away any draft pick. Clarett is the poster boy of this philosophy. Played one partial college season (due to injury), sends his University into a firestorm of an NCAA investigation over booster/rules violations, shows up to the NFL combine 2 years later and quits after a 40-time that a DT would love. And he's on this list as a borderline RB4? Ahhh, the comedy of it all. I don't care what team drafted him. Clarett doesn't have the heart or intestinal fortitude to grind through the tough times. Slow, immature, poor injury history, inexperienced. Yep, that's my RB4. You'll now my user-id has been hacked and is being run by aliens if you ever see Clarett on one of my rosters. "BassNBrew" - I can make a valid case for almost every RB between RB40 and RB52 making a significant contribution based on their demonstrated skills and past performances. Clarett hasn’t played in two years, and you’ll find his picture in Webster’s next to the word slow. Throw Bell, Anderson, Griffin, and Dayne into the mix and there’s no way I’m gambling on RB #5 on the Denver depth chart this early.
Maurile Tremblay - McAllister runs behind a suspect offensive line, which limits his upside potential as a fantasy RB. He is being selected as the sixth RB off the board this year, in line with his career-best performance as the #6 RB in 2002. Many of the RBs being selected after McAllister, however – Domanick Davis, Clinton Portis, Jamal Lewis, Ahman Green, Tiki Barber, Curtis Martin – have already shown a higher upside than that and can be had for a lesser price. McAllister is a solid, starting fantasy RB; but his current ADP of #7 overall makes him too expensive. Mark Wimer - Deuce McAllister has not scored double-digit TDs in two seasons. He has not caught a TD pass in two seasons. McAllister’s OL was not very good last year (4.0 yards per carry, barely adequate). Even after returning to 100% from his early-season high ankle sprain, McAllister only managed four rushing scores in the final eight games of 2004. This year, the team has added short-yardage specialist Antowain Smith to the mix, which won’t help McAllister’s chances of scoring at the goal-line.
Mike Brown - Sure, I liked Suggs in 2004, thinking he’d be the featured back in Cleveland. Fool me once, shame on you…and so on. I’m not going to just assume Suggs is “the man” this time around, especially with Cleveland having brought in Reuben Droughns this past off-season. Add in that Suggs has been an injury waiting to happen in his career, and I’m not willing to use a sixth-round pick on someone who could very well be useless, a pick that could be better spent addressing other needs. Cathy Fazio - Lee Suggs is being drafted before his competition at starting running back for the Browns, Reuben Droughns. The Browns are committed to using both running backs in their game plan no matter which one gets the starting nod. Drafting Suggs at this spot requires overpaying for him.
"EBF" - Corey Dillon seems somewhat overrated as the 11th RB taken in this year’s drafts. The 2004 season was clearly his best year as a pro, and I think he will be hard-pressed to repeat his excellent performance. He will turn 31 this year and he may not be able to handle the toll of another strenuous season. I view him as an above average injury risk and a guy who’s likely to regress towards his career averages after last year’s career bests in rushing yards and TDs.
"Barry Jive and the Uptown Five" - As much as I like Warrick Dunn as a value-play, I think Duckett is that overrated. I'm actually surprised to see him listed lower than Dunn on this list. Evidently, the rest of the world has realized where the true value lies in the ATL backfield. If Duckett were on a team like, say, Pittsburgh (trapping, off-tackle, plow-ahead blocking schemes) he'd fit in pretty well. But that's not the kind of runner that thrives behind an Gibbs offensive line. And don't mistake Duckett for the short-yardage, goal-line back. He's the "Ice-Back." He comes in the 4th quarter to bull over the team that's tired from chasing Dunn around the entire game. That's his value to the Falcons, and that's good. But that's not an RB3 for me. Well, unless I'm the Dunn owner. ;)
"Tick" - Henry is a very good RB. If he were a starter or even an equal partner in a RBBC, his ADP would be too low. However, he's still stuck in Buffalo, and once Willis McGahee took over last season, Henry wasn't used at all even when healthy. He's promised not to play for the Bills again, so unless he's traded, he has no value at all. Gambling that he'll be traded, and that it will be into a situation where he's the starter or primary runner, is too risky. Too many RB holes were filled by rookies and free agents this offseason, leaving only Tennessee as a decent fit for Henry. The Bills have shown that they won't be lowballed for Henry, so I expect him to sit this season.
"Fullback Fro" - Larry Johnson will be a backup going into the season. When you’re spending a 6th round pick to get a backup, you’re in trouble. Other direct backups include Dominic Rhodes, Derrick Blaylock, and Najeh Davenport. All these guys have the same chance of becoming a starter…and that is if an injury occurs. Larry Johnson could be great if he gets his chance but he could be a huge bust if Holmes stays healthy.
David Dodds - Lamont Jordan is a career backup that will now get to show his stuff as the primary running back in Oakland’s attack. But therein lies the problem. The Raiders defense is horrible, Kerry Collins will likely force too many throws (leading to interceptions), so when are the Raiders going to run? The asking price at RB20 is way too steep for my liking.
Aaron Rudnicki - In 2004, Martin set career highs for rushes, yards, and yards per carry, and was the oldest player to ever win a rushing title. He’s had nearly 700 carries combined over the past two years, but at 32 years old, his body is unlikely to withstand that type of punishment much longer. Although he’s never finished a season ranked lower than #18 since entering the league, older RBs have a tendency to fall off quickly, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to anyone if his body started to wear down.
"joffer" - Staley is a bit of a fantasy paradox. A starting RB on a team that runs the ball 60% of the time should be a nice value at pick 48 (RB27), but I don't think he is. His involvement in the passing game was nearly non-existent last year, and as long as the Bus won't retire, Duce rarely sees a carry inside the five. He's also not a home run threat. No goal line carries + No long runs + No receiving targets means no opportunity for TDs. Even if he stays healthy and sees 200 carries, his ceiling is about where his current ADP places him and the potential downside is much, much worse.
"Tick" - Williams has a bright future, but for a redraft I don't see how he can live up to his ADP. Too many signs point to RBBC in Tampa: Gruden has used one every year he's been a head coach, Pittman is too good of a receiver to leave off the field on passing downs, and Williams was most effective in a RBBC in college. Throw in the low number of rushing attempts typical of Gruden's teams, and Williams has no chance to achieve what's being expected of him in FF circles.
"diesel7982" - Even at RB47, Ricky Williams represents terrible value. Yes, he is apparently returning to the NFL. However, upon doing so, he will need to gain back at least 25-30 pounds on his current 195 pound frame. He will also serve a four game suspension. And finally, he will be playing behind the #2 overall NFL draft pick in Ronnie Brown. Instead of drafting someone like Ricky, take a shot on a RB like Frank Gore or LaBrandon Toefield, who have a shot to start for significant periods this season.
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