Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players
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| Introduction • QB: [under] [over] • RB: [under] [over] • WR: [under] [over] • TE: [under] [over] | |||||||||||||||||||
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Overvalued RBs
Chris Smith - The funny thing about Tatum Bell this season is he can be considered both a ‘Value’ player and an ‘Overvalued’ one depending on how the season breaks down. So far it is Mike Anderson and not Bell that is at the top of the depth chart for the Broncos and with depth such as Quentin Griffin and Ron Dayne in behind, it is very risky to take Bell mid-way through the third round. The value play when it comes to the Broncos this year will be Mike Anderson. Bell may emerge as the starter but I won’t be the one to take a chance on him that early in the draft. Maurile Tremblay - Tatum Bell is currently working with the Broncos’ second unit on offense as Mike Anderson’s backup. It is quite possible that Bell will unseat Anderson between now and the start of the regular season, but if I am going to spend a third-round pick on a running back, I want to KNOW that he will be the starter. Bell is going in the same general area as Steven Jackson, LaMont Jordan, and Carnell Williams; but he is a much bigger risk than any of those guys, and a bigger risk than his draft position warrants. David Yudkin - The main problem for Bell right now is that he does not appear to have a starting job. No player is worth a third round pick if he’s not a starter. Bell could easily assume the role of starter by opening day or early in the season and still rank in the Top 20, but it’s hard to consider investing an early pick on someone that could spend time on the sidelines watching. I personally don’t see Mike Anderson as the answer, but I am not making the coaching decisions in Denver. At some point Bell should be starting, but the question is when.
Aaron Rudnicki - During his best season in 2002, Bennett had over 1600 total yards from scrimmage but only 6 TDs and finished as the #17 fantasy RB. Since then, he’s missed 13 games over the past two seasons and was frequently outplayed by Onterrio Smith and even Moe Williams. Bennett entered camp this year as the unquestioned starter for the Vikings, but a recent injury has left his status for the season opener in doubt. The Vikings have drafted quality RBs in each of the last few drafts, and backups Mewelde Moore, Moe Williams, and Ciatrick Fason could all compete for playing time this year. At that price, it is probably a good idea to steer well clear of Michael Bennett on draft day. Chris Smith - I have watched Michael Bennett throughout his NFL career and never been overly impressed. He has great speed but mediocre football instincts and a lack of power. This year during the preseason action, he has been very tentative through the holes and his dancing feet have left him with poor rushing efforts so far. RB Mewelde Moore is the better player and it is a matter of time before the balance of playing time shifts over to Moore’s side. Jason Wood - Michael Bennett simply hasn’t done enough this preseason to justify his ever-increasing draft position. Whereas he was being drafted in the 6th or 7th round a few weeks ago, he’s now coming off the board in the 3rd or 4th round, yet his on field performance has left MUCH to be desired. Given his injury history, his lack of receiving prowess, and the presence of other options in the Minnesota backfield, I would be very worried about drafting Bennett among the top 24 at his position.
Maurile Tremblay - I typically don’t read too much into preseason performances, but I make an exception for rookies since there’s not a lot else to go on. And Arrington has looked weak during the preseason so far. Marcel Shipp has easily outperformed him. Maybe Arrington will end up keeping the starting job and playing well once the season starts, but he is being drafted too high to count on that kind of ‘maybe.’ If I want a rookie RB, I’d rather take my chances with Ronnie Brown, who has looked strong in training camp and his going half a round after Arrington. Jason Wood - A month ago, I would’ve been excited about drafting Arrington in the late 3rd round thinking he has a stranglehold on the starting job in Arizona not to mention the requisite skill set to excel. Yet, just about everything has gone against him in the preseason. Arrington ran for over 2,000 yards last season at Cal, and the only real knocks on him were a reputation for sometimes putting the ball on the ground and being a bit lackadaisical as a pass blocker. Well, both problems have raised the hackles on the back of Dennis Green’s neck. With Arrington looking tentative at the point of attack, putting the ball on the ground, and missing key blocks, he may not be ready for the workload we’d expected.
Will Grant - The Bears and Benson are not even talking anymore. Meanwhile Thomas Jones keeps plugging along. They Bears are more worried about their QB than they are about Benson, and his holdout is only going to make things worse. Unless Thomas Jones goes down to injury, he’ll be the #1 back in Chicago for the season. Chris Smith - Benson was a little risky even before this contract dispute came about. There were questions of his maturity and commitment to football and now in the midst of a terrible holdout, it is Thomas Jones and not Benson that will lead the team through much of this season. Benson is an extremely risky pick now and his rookie season may mirror Deuce McAllister’s rookie campaign in which he rarely saw the field. Way too much risk to justify the 54th overall selection.
Andy Hicks - Although DeShaun Foster is likely to be a third choice RB on most peoples rosters this year, he is not worth that price at any cost. He has missed 30 games in three seasons. He has only posted one 100 yard game and that was against an inept Kansas City Chiefs outfit. Stephen Davis will probably return from injury, Eric Shelton was drafted in the second round and last years fill in Nick Goings is still in the picture. 2 rushing touchdowns in 3 years, 2 major injuries in 3 years, a deep backfield and average production so far mean Foster is a considerable risk, especially in the late 4th, early 5th round. Aaron Rudnicki - When healthy, Foster has shown glimpses of the talent that made him a high draft pick for the Panthers, but his short career has been plagued by injuries and he’s now missed 12 games or more in two of his first three seasons. He will get first crack at the starting RB job if Stephen Davis can’t recover, but rookie Eric Shelton is a legitimate threat for the job and may steal goalline duties as well. Last year’s surprise Nick Goings is also still in place, so it is unlikely that the team will let Foster play through any injuries. With a knack for getting dinged up, it is hard to imagine him holding onto the starting job for very long.
Andy Hicks - Larry Johnson looked great in the last few weeks of 2004, with that offensive line it could be argued that most backs would. The problem with Larry Johnson is that he is a clear cut backup this season. To see him drafted in the 6th round (and I’ve seen him taken in the 4th in one draft) smacks of some kind of wild optimism that Priest Holmes is going to get injured early. Priest Holmes is a dominant back and is the starter. The only owner who should consider Larry Johnson in his current slot is the Holmes owner, but others will attempt to stymie this move. Don’t be that guy. While one owner gets Larry Johnson as his RB3 you load up on the talent available at other positions, including RBs that will outshine Johnson’s point production on a weekly basis. When you start to worry about what other teams are doing your draft can easily fall apart. Be smart. Maurile Tremblay - Spend a sixth-round pick on a backup? I know Johnson’s upside potential is through the roof if Priest Holmes gets hurt. But for the same price I can get a reliable contributor like Alge Crumpler or Isaac Bruce – not only sure starters, but guys who will excel at their position. Priest Holmes is the man in KC when he’s healthy, and I simply won’t spend a sixth-round draft choice on somebody who won’t start for my fantasy team unless his teammate gets injured.
Cecil Lammey - Portis exploded onto the scene in Washington last year with his first carry that went 64 yards for a TD. Unfortunately for him that was the highlight of his season. He had only 5 100 yard rushing games, and scored only 5 rushing TDs on the season. He did have 40 receptions, but scored 20 or more fantasy points only 4 times in 2004. Washington hasn’t made any significant moves on offense that would lead to an improvement in CP’s numbers. David Yudkin - Portis had more starts than in any other season, had more carries than any other season, and had his worst season to date. Portis found that Washington is not Denver, and his YPC dropped 1.7 yards while his TD was slashed in half. His fantasy ranking fell to the #11 RB as his fantasy point total dipped from 275 to 202. The Redskins offense still looks to be one of the weakest in the league, and many people are drafting Portis as if he were still in Denver. Washington RB had just 6 rushing TD in 2004 and 7 in 2003. Portis may still rack up the yardage, but his TD opportunities will be limited.
Cecil Lammey - Duce is a great runner. When he’s on the field that is. His injury in 2004 allowed the Bus to take over for the Steelers. This season Duce is already hurt and looks to miss some time early in the year. Yes, I know, missing time early is better than missing time late. But Staley’s injury has allowed young phenom Willie Parker to showcase his talent. When Staley comes back it will be hard to split the rock 3 ways. The Steelers love what Parker can do, and the Bus is clearly the goal line back. This leaves Staley picking up scraps for yards on 1st and 2nd downs. Jason Wood - Staley hasn’t amassed 200+ carries in four of the last five seasons. In 8 NFL seasons, he’s had 300+ carries ONCE. And he’s NEVER had more than five rushing touchdowns in a season. On top of that, he’s injured AGAIN. How anyone can feel comfortable relying on Staley is beyond me. Although a ranking of RB31 doesn’t assume an extremely high level of production, the fact he’s still being drafted 30 picks higher than Jerome Bettis is unjustifiable.
Andy Hicks - Ahman Green declined in both production and opportunities last season. At 29 years of age, Green is approaching the twilight of his prime, and with talented backs in Najeh Davenport and Tony Fisher on the roster he will not be utilized as he was in the past. Add in the appearance that the Packers are on the decline and unable to generate dominating leads as in days gone by, and extreme caution should be used when drafting Ahman Green. The departure of 2 very good offensive linemen makes his job even tougher.
Cecil Lammey - Holmes has had some injury troubles recently and it has led to more playing time for his backups. Thus, Larry Johnson was able to prove his worth and it will lead to a decline in Holmes touches. In order to keep Priest healthy for a playoff run, the Chiefs are going to employ some sort of RBBC. And if Priest even limps to the huddle, Vermeil won’t hesitate to put Larry Johnson in the game. Priest should still have solid numbers, but getting taken out of games will hurt his output. He is definitely overvalued as the RB3.
Aaron Rudnicki - In 2004, Martin set career highs for rushes, yards, and yards per carry, and was the oldest player to ever win a rushing title. He’s had nearly 700 carries combined over the past two years and at 32 years old, his body is unlikely to withstand that type of punishment much longer. Although he’s never finished a season ranked lower than #18 since entering the league, older RBs have a tendency to fall off quickly and it wouldn’t be a surprise to anyone if his body started to finally wear down a bit.
Mark Wimer - Deuce McAllister racks up yardage in almost every game he plays. However, he hasn’t punched in more than 9 TDs over the past 2 seasons, and the Saints have been very open about their plans to spell McAllister with backups Antowain Smith and Aaron Stecker this season. The Saints hope he’ll crack 1500 yards, but his lack of presence in the red-zone means that McAllister will disappoint fantasy owners counting on McAllister to put up elite fantasy points. He has no upside at #7, and there is considerable downside with this player.
David Yudkin - Willis McGahee stepped in for Travis Henry last year and had a huge second half of the season. There have been several players in recent seasons (Clinton Portis, Jamal Lewis, Fred Taylor, and Michael Bennett to name a few) that posted great numbers over the latter parts of seasons that did not do markedly better over the course of a full season. For McGahee to rank as high as he’s projected, we will need an extensive workload (the Top 5 RB last year averaged 385 touches last year) and maintain the phenomenal scoring pace as well (13 TD in 12 starts). Given his injury history, one has to wonder if the Bills will allocate such heavy a workload to McGahee.
Marc Levin - As the RB21, with a late 3rd/early 4th round ADP, drafting Cadillac means you are relying on Cadillac to be a solid fantasy starter at RB2. My dispute with that thought is not that Williams lacks the talent, or that he won’t have the opportunity. His situation is not great - the Tampa Bay OL is in shambles due to injuries and personnel turnover – and the team ranked near the bottom of the league in 2004. He also will lose some touches to Michael Pittman – especially in the receiving game. Counting on Williams from the RB2 spot from day one is not advisable –especially when later RB2 options exist a round or two later that have more secure positions on decent running teams (Warrick Dunn, Fred Taylor, and Chris Brown leap to mind).
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