Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players
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| Introduction • QB: [under] [over] • RB: [under] [over] • WR: [under] [over] • TE: [under] [over] | |||||||||||||||||||
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Undervalued RBs
David Dodds - JJ Arrington enters the perfect situation in Arizona. Needing to beat out only Marcel Ship and Troy Hambrick, it is hard to imagine JJ not making a huge contribution this season. He ran for over 2,000 yards last year and will play behind an offensive line that made Emmitt Smith look good last season. At least one rookie RB has finished in the Top 20 at the position every year for the last 20+ years. I’m betting that JJ Arrington will continue that streak. Cecil Lammey - The only 2,000 yard back from the collegiate ranks in 2004, Arrington is going into a perfect situation for a back with his skill set. Arizona has a good trio of young WRs and will try and emulate the type of offense that the Rams have in St. Louis. This means that J.J. will play the Marshall Faulk role, which is a great one for a fantasy RB. Arrington has great vision and balance which will allow him to find the weak spots in defenses and get there before the pursuit. J.J. also has good hands and will be used as a relief valve receiver coming out of the backfield. He will definitely out play his ADP of RB29. Chris Smith - He is in a great position to put up top fifteen fantasy numbers this season. His only real competition for touches is Marcel Shipp who has had only one good season and is coming off of a bad injury. As the 29th running back taken, Arrington has a great chance to exceed his draft position this season. Chase Stuart - Dennis Green’s high octane offensive philosophy calls for an explosive RB with good hands. Drafting J.J. Arrington from California in the second round gives Green the RB he needs. Arrington rushed for over 100 yards every game last year en route to a 2,000 yard rushing season in which he averaged seven yards per carry. With young stars Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin at WR, two-time MVP Kurt Warner keeping defenses honest, and little competition at the position, Arrington should be able to have a very productive rookie season. Mark Wimer - J.J. Arrington rushed for over 100 yards in all of his 2004 collegiate games. He averaged 7.0 yards per carry, racking up 289/2018/15 rushing (leading the nation) and 21/121/0 receiving. His 4.4 speed means he can take it to the house in a flash. Meanwhile, the Cardinals field three of the best young WRs in the NFL, along with a crafty veteran QB. There should be some big seams for Arrington to exploit in 2005. He figures to be a solid #2 fantasy option, even though he’s a rookie. Don’t expect 2000 yards rushing, but don’t be surprised to see 1000+ yards rushing and double-digit TDs. "Bagger" - I absolutely loved JJ Arrington in college. He was one of the very few RBs who rushed for over 100 yards against the Pac 10 rival USC Trojans, and he did it in both games he started against them. The following backs were not able to even do this once against USC: Ronnie Brown and Carnell Williams (in two games), Julius Jones (one game), Chris Perry (one game), and Adrian Peterson (one game). Steven Jackson did it once in three tries. Furthermore, Arrington comes into a situation in Arizona that is a better situation than any of the other rookie backs, yet he is being drafted the lowest of all of them in fantasy drafts. Arrington is the clear-cut starter on an improving Cardinals offense that allowed an aging Emmitt Smith over 900 yards on the ground in 2004. All of the other backs will be sharing significant time with veteran backs or on offenses that will be significantly worse than the Cardinals. JJ Arrington will be a top 20 back and the only rookie back to break 1,000 yards. His ADP of RB29 and 55th overall is an absolute steal. "Bloom" - Of the top four rookie RBs, Arrington sits behind the least talented back – giving him both the best shot to start and the least risk of the vet taking a significant amount of touches. Arrington already blocks and receives well enough to be an everydown back. Arizona’s QB play should improve, and they have a very good offensive line. Ancient Emmitt Smith produced respectable numbers with these guys last year. Arrington should have no problem being a fantasy RB2 this season. "BostonFred" - I know, it's Arizona. And I know he hasn't done anything yet. But a starting running back who has the ability to have the job for himself is a great value in the fifth round. Marcel Shipp has had two seasons to earn the job and failed. The passing game should be improved with a full year of Boldin and another year of experience for Johnson and Fitzgerald. And the Cards have revamped their offensive line - releasing underachieving LJ Shelton sent a message to the rest of the line that they're going to have to earn their playing time. A good situation for a good running back. "EBF" - A rookie and a bit of an unknown, Arrington had the good fortune of falling into a favorable situation. His competition for touches consists primarily of Marcel Shipp and Troy Hambrick, two very uninspiring backs. While Arrington may not be great, he possesses nice physical talent and was a star in college. Emmitt Smith was the #23 overall fantasy RB last season, and it seems reasonable to expect something similar from Arrington. He’s a nice bargain as the 29th RB off the board. "Family Matters" - Denny Green drafted JJ early in the 2nd as Emmitt Smith announced his retirement. With Hambrick & Shipp as the only competition for JJ, expect him to be named the starter. Past Denny Green RBs have been afforded numerous reps in the running and passing game. Arrington, a 2000 yard rusher at California, should fit nicely in this offense. With Warner, Boldin and Fitzgerald putting pressure on opposing defenses, Arrington could find plenty of lanes to run through. A starting RB drafted as the 29th RB taken equals solid value. "Fullback Fro" - “I think he’s the kind a back will go out there and get us a thousand yards this year” ~ Denny Green after first day of the 2005 NFL Draft. Simply put, J.J.’s got the talent and he has a coach who is going to give him the starting gig. Furthermore, if you play in a point per reception league his value even increases more. Give me RB #3 with the potential to put up RB #2 in the middle of the fourth round. Yes please. "LHUCKS" - I have JJ as my RB #22 ahead of fellow rookies Ronnie Brown and Cedric Benson. What a great situation for Arrington. He comes in with very little competition in an offense that even netted an aged Emmitt Smith some decent yards. Arrington was a workhorse in college so don't let his stature fool ya. He's thick for his size and had the endorsements of several top coaches and scouts so many believe he's an NFL caliber back. Shipp may get some touches but not enough to prevent Arrington from exceeding his ’05 ADP.
Will Grant - His rookie season began slowly and he was hampered by an ankle and knee injuries. Jones racked up over 1000 yards from scrimmage over the last 8 games of the season and scored a TD in four of the last five games. With Mike Williams at WR and Charles Rogers back from injury, defenses won’t be able to stack the line either. Unless he’s injured, KJ will be a top ten fantasy back for 2005. Cecil Lammey - Don’t let this up and coming superstar get past you in your fantasy draft. In the last 8 weeks of the season, Kevin Jones was the NFL’s leading rusher. Let other owners in your league believe the fallacy that Steve Mariucci is a RBBC coach. Snag up Kevin Jones and watch him shine. He really came into his own at the end of the season and proved that he could be a durable, full time back, and produce on an elite level. He could use a few more receptions but is getting better at catching the ball out of the backfield. Defenses will be distracted by the WR combo of Williams, Williams, and Rogers. This means big things for Kevin Jones as he should hardly ever see 8 in the box. Aaron Rudnicki - Kevin Jones got off to a slow start in 2004 but was one of the best running backs in the league over the second half of the season. In his last 8 starts, he was the focal point of the offense and ran for over 900 yards and 4 TDs while averaging 5.3 yards per carry. The Lions have made several major upgrades on offense this year that should help Jones become even more productive in 2005. Chris Smith - Jones has a chance to slip into the top five this season with defenses having to key on the Lions passing attack. He is a bargain as the 13th running back taken. Maurile Tremblay - After splitting carries in the first part of the 2004 season, Jones came on strong at the end. He was the #6 fantasy RB over the final five weeks of the season and will be the Lions’ featured runner from the outset in 2005. He has top physical talent, and if the Lions’ offense in general improves this year, Jones will get more goal line opportunities and should score more TDs. Ron White - He led the NFL over the final seven games of his rookie season. The Lions plan to involve Jones more in the passing game. With an improved offensive line, there is no reason other than injury to expect Jones to finish outside the top ten among running backs. If Harrington plays to his potential, Jones could land in the top five. Mark Wimer - Kevin Jones started slowly last year but roared through the final eight games of the season. He went over 100 yards combined in seven of the final eight games, including a 218 yard effort vs. ARI, scoring in four of his final five games. The Lions will feed him the ball, as the team is not blessed with a top-tier QB. Jones is top ten material and top five is not out of reach. The Lions have a great trio of young WRs + TE Marcus Pollard (unlike 2004 – Roy Williams was almost alone at times), and with them even Harrington or Garcia will command some respect from opposing defenses. "Barry Jive and the Uptown Five" - I'm not going to look at stats or anything else regarding Kevin Jones. Drafting him as RB13, or essentially the first RB2, is a HUGE value. He is, IMHO, the most-talented RB to come out in the last two drafts. Mariucci still doesn't have the answer at QB and as such will experience variable performance quality in the passing game. Mariucci learned last year that KJ can carry the load. So I expect to see plenty of 30 carry games. And with a healthy 4.7 ypc, that's going to produce some eye-popping results. "Bloom" - Jones had a huge second half, which foreshadows a breakout season. This year, Harrington should be on a short leash, as Jeff Garcia can step in and make the passing game respectable if Harrington tanks again. Not that it mattered to Jones, as he still put up numbers in games when Harrington was so bad that defenses barely had to honor the pass. The addition of Mike Williams and a possibly healthy Charles Rogers opens up the field even more for Jones. Jones showed promise as a receiver, an area he was very inexperienced in coming into his rookie year. His reception and yardage numbers should only improve. "EBF" - Kevin Jones started out 2004 slowly but played like a man possessed down the stretch. He averaged over 100 yards rushing per game during the second half of last season and now seems poised to break into the elite group of NFL RBs. It’s unlikely that he’ll maintain his second half averages of a year ago, but he remains an excellent value play as the 13th RB taken in drafts. I think he has a realistic chance of being a top five fantasy RB in 2005. "SammyJankis" - Quick, who was the leading rusher over the final eight games of the season? Who had the highest yards per carry over the final eight games of any back with at least 100 carries? With 906 yards at 5.27 yards per carry, the answer is Kevin Jones. The Sporting News recently reported that Jones will no longer be platooned and has been working with coaches on his blitz pickup and catching the screen pass. The additions of Jeff Garcia, Mike Williams and Marcus Pollard and the return of Charles Rogers will make the Lions offense even more potent in 2005. Jones’ ADP suggests that in 10 and 12 team leagues, someone is drafting him as their RB2. That’s tremendous value.
Mike Anderson - Quietly, Tiki Barber was the 2nd highest scoring fantasy RB in the league in 2004. Ball control HC Tom Coughlin’s teams have averaged just fewer than 450 carries a year in his 9 seasons. In his first season with Coughlin, Barber set career highs in carries, rushing yards, TDs, and yards from scrimmage. There is every expectation that after 9 straight years, Coughlin is not going to change his entire offensive philosophy, and will continue pound the ball with Barber again this season. Fantasy owners overlooking this, as witnessed by his low 2.06 average draft position, while Barber is drafted by more astute owners, will be left behind as he has another top 5 RB fantasy performance. David Dodds - Tiki ranked as the number 2 RB last season with 2,096 combined rushing and receiving yards and 15 TDs (13 rush, 2 receiving). His production would need to slip over 35% for him to not outperform his RB14 draft slot. He remains a great value pick again in 2005. Chris Smith - The player that gets no respect is being taken as the 14th running back on average in fantasy drafts. He has been 13th, 14th, 7th, 15th and 2nd at his position over the past five seasons and deserves a spot in your top ten. Maurile Tremblay - Barber is a stud RB who doesn’t get the respect he deserves. He was the #2 fantasy RB in the league last season, yet he is being selected as the fourteenth RB this season on concerns that he will lose goal line carries to rookie Brandon Jacobs. What many fantasy owners may not realize is that Tiki Barber was actually the most effective goal line runner in the league last year, scoring on ten of his 15 rushes inside the five yard line. Will the Giants pull their best player at the goal line? I say they won’t. Jason Wood - How many years will Barber be undervalued? Last season, despite being the lone offensive weapon that defenses planned for, Barber led the NFL in yards from scrimmage with more than 2,000 total yards, scored 15 touchdowns and caught 52 passes. He was the 2nd best fantasy RB in 2004 and has finished no worse than 15th in the last five years. To presume he’s incapable of another top-10 season would be a grave mistake on draft day. "Bagger" - Barber was the second rated RB last year, and now he is expected to be the 14th running back taken. Did he get injured? No. Were there significant changes made on his team? No. So what happened? The same thing that happens every year with Barber: he is undervalued. Many people are predicting jailbird Jamal Lewis, one year wonders Julius and Kevin Jones, and a Clinton Portis who averages over a yard less per carry in Washington than he did in Denver to all outperform Tiki. Fantasy drafters like flash and hype and love to tell the story that they grabbed the next hot RB before everyone else and rode them to a championship. Tiki doesn’t give you that story. He just quietly produces year in and year out. As the 14th ranked RB, he is being drafted to have about a poor of a year as he has had in the last five years. I still have not heard a legitimate reason why. "Fullback Fro" - Barber finished #2 overall last year. He had a career year. He fixed his fumbling problems by employing a new ball cradling technique. Tiki’s only downside is he has a young inexperienced QB leading the offense, but I think this will cause the Giants to rely on him even more. Every year Tiki is undervalued, and every year he proves people who passed him wrong. I see no difference this year. If you get Tiki in the second round, you’re on your way to the perfect draft. "LHUCKS" - Tiki finished as the #2 RB last year so I'm not quite sure what's dropping him down? Schedule looks about the same. Brandon Jacobs is a role player...most likely at the goalline and other spot duty. The best reason for dropping him IMHO is taking some TDs away due to Jacob's presence. Well I did that and he's still #5 on my RB list. Tiki is low risk and high reward....just the type of player I'd take in the top 5 of any draft. "Unlucky" - Tom Coughlin likes to run, especially near the goalline. Brunell never threw a lot of TDs in JAX, as the Jags ran for a lot of TDs. Tiki will keep this up and continue to be an elite fantasy RB. His YPC is high, he gets receptions, and he should have plenty of TD opportunities under Coughlin. Barber is currently #6 on my board.
David Dodds - Warrick Dunn has never ranked below RB27 in his 7 year career. Last year he finished as the 15th best RB posting 1,106 rushing yards, 9 rushing TDs while adding 29 receptions for another 294 yards. His worst fantasy ranking (27th) came in 2003 when he managed to play in only 11 games. If Warrick stays healthy, he is a safe bet to outperform his RB28 draft slot. He shows up annually on this list. Marc Levin - Every year, Dunn exceeds his draft spot. This year, as the RB28, he again represents great running back value. Dunn has averaged 11.9 standard FF points per game over the last two years, and he finished as the #14 back in 2004. Being selected behind injury and experience question marks such as Chris Brown, Cadillac Williams, DeShaun Foster, and Lamont Jordan, Dunn seems a much more dependable pick. Chris Smith - Warrick Dunn has never been ranked lower than 27th in his NFL career. He should slot in somewhere between 15th and 20th amongst running backs. Jason Wood - If someone wants to contend that Dunn is unlikely to repeat his 1,100 yard, 9 touchdown rushing output of a season ago, you’ll get no major argument from me. But in eight years in the league, Dunn has NEVER finished as low as 28th among fantasy RBs. He came closest in 2003, when he finished 27th, yet in that season he only played in 11 games. The guy consistently puts up top-20 numbers when given the touches, and Atlanta led the league in rushing attempts last year. Dunn may be small, but he’s productive and deserves a higher ADP. David Yudkin - For starters, Dunn has never ranked as low as his current ADP. He’s been a top 20 RB four times (#15 last year). Since coming to the Falcons, he’s averaged 12.1 fantasy ppg, and nothing has changed in Atlanta to suggest that he will do any worse this year. At his normal production rate, Dunn should again rank in the top 15-20 RB provided he stays healthy, and he’s played in at least 15 games six of eight years in the league. "Barry Jive and the Uptown Five" - Probably my favorite guy to draft a round after the "upside owner" takes T.J. Duckett. Dunn has been a steady RB2 for the last 5 years, twice finishing as Top 15 and another season at RB19. He simply produces, ala Curtis Martin, year after year, all the while watching the "young stud" come in for mop up duty in the 4th QTR. Now with the offense installed by Mora, Jr. and Alex Gibbs implementing the "Bronco Blocking" system up front, ATL has become a formidable rushing team. Duckett gets his carries, but only when the game is in hand and the team is icing a lead in the final minutes. For a guy who's drafted as a Top RB3 and yet produces as an upper RB2, that's okay by me. And that's value. "EBF" - Warrick Dunn is undersized and will never be a truly elite fantasy back, but he finished last season as the #15 fantasy RB. He doesn’t have the same kind of upside that a lot of the backs taken before him have and is getting a bit old, but he’s still a great value as the 28th RB off the board. If he stays healthy then he will certainly outperform his current draft position. "joffer" - The sky is blue, water is wet, women have secrets, and Warrick Dunn is underrated again. One of the most interesting things about Dunn's 2004 season was the way is receiving numbers declined, but his overall production didn't. As Vick improves in the west coast offense, you would think the involvement of RBs in the passing game would only increase. Despite the presence of TJ Duckett, Dunn continues to get plenty of touches, as well as a tidy some of TDs. He's a steal as the 28th RB off the board. "Jurb26" - Here is a guy that constantly flies under the radar. It is easy to pass on the scat back that shares the load with ten other RBs (Vick and Duckett) I guess. Don't let that fool you though. Dunn has never finished worse than the 27th RB and that was only due to a shortened 11 game season for him. Dunn is a perennial top 20 RB or solid RB2 on your fantasy team that is being drafted as a RB3 (RB28 ADP right now). This Atlanta team runs the ball as well or better than any team in the NFL right now. They may not feature any one RB, but Dunn is certainly a safe bet for a RB2 in this offense.
Clayton Gray - Considering Martin has topped 1000 yards in each of his 10 seasons, it’s safe to assume he’ll get there again in 2005. Considering he has topped 40 receptions every season since his rookie campaign, it’s safe to assume he’ll get there again in 2005. So what we have is a 1000-yard back that is a great threat out of the backfield. Gee, sign me up for some of that please. Andy Hicks - Curtis Martin is coming off a fourth placed ranking last year, but looking at his 2005 draft position one would have thought 2004 never happened. Martin has proven to be one of the more durable backs in modern times, and with the addition of Mike Heimerdinger as the new offensive coordinator Martin will definitely see less carries but will be able to do more with them. Despite not having one run greater than 25 yards, he still averaged 4.6 yards a carry, a testament to his running ability and solid offensive line. Other, riskier backs are being selected at the end of round one, while Curtis falls into round two. Martin is safer choice for those who like a durable, solid back. Chase Stuart - Curtis Martin set career highs in carries, rushing yards, yards per carry and yards from scrimmage in 2004. He was the only NFL player to have 400 touches last year, is extremely durable and is the centerpiece of the New York Jets. With Lamont Jordan now in Oakland, Martin may garner an even larger percentage of carries for New York and will be the main goal-line back. The Jets offensive line is one of the best in the league, and an improved passing attack should keep defenses from stopping Martin. "Barry Jive and the Uptown Five" - Here comes the mean & cynical Barry Jive. I think it's blatantly obvious why Cmart is listed as RB17 on this list. In the last six seasons: only once has he had less than 300 carries, only once had a ypc below 4.0, only once had less than 7 TDs, only once held below 1200 yds. He has never had less than 40 receptions, been below 1400 total yards, nor has he missed a game in those 6 years. And still he is always drafted towards the end of the RB2's. In a dynasty he's almost untradeable since everyone thinks he's already finished as a player. It's exactly that level of consistency that wins championships. The guy who scores 4 TDs in a game will help you win ONCE. Curtis Martin helps you win every week. "Bloom" - Martin produces and holds up under the load of a feature back as well as any RB in the league. New Jets offensive coordinator Heimerdinger wants to open up the offense, which should prevent defenses from keying on Martin. Martin should regress toward the mean, as 2004 was a career year for him in total yardage, but a ranking of RB17 for an unquestioned proven feature back predicts erosion in Martin’s skills that I see no sign of. "diesel7982" - What does Martin have to do to earn the respect of FF players? He finished last year as the #4 RB, with 1900+ yards and 14 TDs. Martin has never ranked lower than 18th among all RBs in his career. It seems fairly safe to assume that RB18 is his absolute downside barring injury. As he showed last year, he has top five potential. At RB17, CuMart is a huge value pick.
Will Grant - What has changed from last year? Perry is still unproven, Palmer is still a good but not great QB, and Chad Johnson is still one of the best WRs in the league. The Bengals have an easier schedule as well, meaning more changes for Johnson to grind out the clock. He was RB8 last year, and there is no evidence to believe that he’s going to fall seven more places to RB15 this year. David Yudkin - Rudi Johnson ranked as the #8 RB last year, and Cincinnati’s offense is on the rise. Johnson excelled last year facing the toughest schedule of all RBs, playing ten games against top ten rushing defenses. He ranked in top ten in the league in rushes, rushing yards, rushing TDs, and yards from scrimmage. With what could only be considered an easier schedule and a new long-term contract, it’s easy to see a happy and healthy Johnson doing as well as better in 2005. "BostonFred" - Rudi Johnson gets no respect. He was the #8 RB last year against the toughest schedule in the league, yet he's being drafted as the #15 RB this year. He put up great numbers against some of the best defenses in the league - 123 yards and a TD against Pittsburgh, 102 yards and a TD against Washington, and 130 yards and a TD against Buffalo. His main backup has lingering injury problems, and he gets more than enough carries to be successful. He's a capable goal line back, converting an outstanding 40% of his opportunities inside the 5, but he also scored 6 times from outside he 5, including a 36 yard score against Denver. He didn't get a lot of receptions last year, but with Johnson and Palmer developing side by side, he has room to improve. Really, very little downside, with lots of upside with an easier schedule and a fast improving offense. "Jurb26" - For a guy who finished as a top ten RB vs. one of the most difficult schedules in the NFL last year, Rudi Johnson sure isn't getting a great deal of attention this offseason. Right now, Rudi can be has as the 15th RB off the board right now. That's an RB2! He plays in a great offense, one with plenty of weapons, none of which are more vital than him. I'm sure people will look at his lack of rec yds, but when you can score double digit TDs and rush for near 1500 yds, you should be a top ten RB. Rudi is a stud in the making. Lets not forget, this guy was good enough to make Corey Dillon expendable.
Mike Brown - Jerome Bettis stole Staley’s thunder last season with all of the early touchdowns, and eventually grabbing the spotlight role to himself. But people forget just how well Staley was playing in 2004 before he was injured. Bettis’ role is almost certain to decrease, considering his age/workload and the fact that he very nearly retired. Finally, the departure of Plaxico Burress means his receptions have to be spread around amongst the team. Staley, as a big-time receiving back, stands to gain a large chunk of that lost production. Marc Levin - As the RB27, Duce is another great value back who will likely be available in the fifth round. While he gave way to Jerome Bettis for much of 2004, that was due primarily to a mid-season injury. Four 100+ and two 90+ rushing yard performances in the Steelers’ first eight games should be factored with Bettis’ and Staley’s combined 15 rushing TDs in deciding his 2005 fantasy value. Expect a very nice 2005 and great value from Staley. Even if Bettis’ TD vulture role remains a concern, Staley racks up yardage when he plays. Ron White - It must be his injury that has driven his value so low, but Duce is completely healthy. The Steelers are a run oriented team, and Staley will also catch plenty of passes. He had 707 yards rushing after only seven games last season before injuring his hamstring. His ADP is lower than the two rookies who are on bad teams: Carnell Williams, and Ronnie Brown. Hmmm. "diesel7982" - Before injuring his hamstring in practice before week nine, Duce was averaging 100+ yards a game rushing, at an incredible 4.9 yards a carry. This year, Staley is healthy again and will get a bulk of the rushing workload with Jerome Bettis spelling him and taking the goal line work. While Staley will not score more than a handful of touchdowns, he will likely have 1400+ total yards, making him worth taking in the RB15-20 range.
Colin Dowling - Think about this: Bennett’s chief competition (Onterrio Smith) is out of the picture. Bennett is one of Mike Tice’s favorite players for some reason as he constantly gets the chance to be “the guy” without backing it up much on the field. This time last year, Bennett was being bandied about as a potential top 12 selection. What’s changed? Well, he has less competition, and the team looks to rely on the run even more. So, I ask you: what is NOT to like about Bennett this year, particularly when he’s being drafted in the late fifth round? "Family Matters" - With him being named the starter by Tice and Smith suspended for the year, Bennett should whiz his way to the best year he’s had since 2002. With an ADP of RB30, he will easily outperform his draft position. He appears to be healthy and in excellent position to take advantage of an offense that wants to create more of a balance attack by running more on 2nd down. "Tick" - Bennett's ADP is low due to concerns about a RBBC in Minnesota. However, coach Mike Tice has said that he wants someone to step up and be the man at RB. Onterrio Smith is done, Ciatrick Fason is a rookie who will need some work on pass protection and receiving, and Moe Williams is aging and has never been anyone's first choice. That leaves only Bennett and Mewelde Moore to compete for the starting job. Bennett has the advantage as he's been the main man before and when healthy has shown good ability. With Jim Kleinsasser back this season, the Vikings' rushing game should return to top-five status. Even if Moore gets the third down carries and Williams gets the goal line chances (roughly the same situation as 2002), Bennett could finish around RB18. His upside is top-10, making him a great bargain.
Cathy Fazio - Buckhalter never saw the regular season after suffering a knee injury in the preseason in 2004. But in 2003, he accounted for eight rushing touchdowns, sharing the goal line responsibilities with Brian Westbrook who scored seven touchdowns. If 2005 continues where 2003 left off, Buckhalter is a great value at this point in the draft when back up running backs who don’t have as much of a chance to see playing time are being drafted. "Fullback Fro" - Correll Buckhalter produces when he’s not injured. In 2003, Buckhalter had 8 rushing TDs splitting the load between Staley and Westbrook. Guess what? Looks like he’s healthy again. All reports say he’s looking good in mini-camp. He’s the guy who will get the ball at the goal line. Plus I see him getting the inside work, leaving the perimeter to Westbrook, and to some extent, Moats. For a guy you can pick up in round 12, if he can stay healthy, he is a steal. "joffer" - Andy Reid re-signed this guy for a reason. He is coming of ACL surgery, but as a between the tackles runner, he's less affected by the rehab than someone like Westbrook who is more dependent on making people miss. I really believe this could end up a two-headed RBBC in Philly, and Buckhalter could easily reach his 2003 totals of 540/8 when he was the 30th ranked RB. Even if he doesn't quite get there, RB52 is a very nice value late in the draft.
Colin Dowling - I know Steven Jackson is going to get the bulk of the work out of the Rams backfield, and I’ve never been one for nostalgia, but come on! Marshall Faulk going as an RB4? The same Marshall Faulk that looked positively human in 2004, yet still finished the season with 50 receptions and four yards per carry? Truth is, Faulk was a disappointment in 2004 because he didn’t score many touchdowns. However, to think he is going to be put out to pasture just because Jackson is getting the bulk of the carries is faulty logic. While I don’t expect top-10 numbers, I would be surprised if Faulk didn’t outperform his draft spot. Andy Hicks - Steven Jackson has been announced as the starter, and Marshall Faulk has been told he’ll be the back up. While not the back he was in his dominating prime, Faulk deserves to be considered higher than he currently is. Steven Jackson has already suffered injuries in his short career, and Mike Martz has lost patience with other high picks in the past, notably Trung Canidate and Lamar Gordon. Faulk is still a brilliant receiver and capable runner, and if Martz loses fortitude with Jackson expect his old security blanket Marshall Faulk to see more action. Did I mention goalline back? Chris Smith - Faulk is certainly not the player he once was, but with Steven Jackson getting more of the work, Faulk should be fresh throughout the season and could get a lot of passes thrown his way. He’ll get his touches and certainly is worth more than the 42nd running back taken.
Aaron Rudnicki - Stephen Davis is 31 years old and coming back from microfracture surgery on his knee, so there is a very good chance he won’t be able to contribute much in 2005. DeShaun Foster is the projected starter, but he’s had a lot of difficulty staying healthy in the past. The Panthers drafted Shelton in the 2nd round as insurance, but he may be given a chance to compete for the starting job right away. He’s a power back who can carry a heavy load and may be given the goalline duties as well. Chris Smith - Rookie Shelton scored 20 touchdowns for the Louisville Cardinals last year and by all accounts could have scored another ten. He has great size, good vision and is tough to bring down. With the injury woes of both Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster in front of him, Shelton has a real opportunity to see a lot of touches in 2005. "Unlucky" - I have Shelton pegged as the feature RB in CAR. S. Davis’ best days are long gone. Foster can’t stay healthy and hasn’t proven all that much when he has been. Carolina will run the ball much more this year than last, and Shelton will be carrying the load. Shelton is currently the #23 RB on my board.
Colin Dowling - Barlow was a fantasy disaster last year, disappointing owners across the landscape...and he still finished 27th among running backs. Even if Frank Gore takes some touches, he isn’t likely to reduce Barlow’s value more than Maurice Hicks did last year (96 carries). In short, if Barlow produces like last year, he should be a decent pick as a third running back. If he improves upon that at all – and with a new coach, new system, revamped O-line, etc. its not hard to imagine – Barlow could be one of the most valuable running backs in redraft leagues this fall. "Tick" - Barlow was hyped last season as a top ten RB, but he failed miserably and killed a lot of people's FF chances. As such, people have gotten emotional about him, leading to an ADP of 58 (RB31). Considering he finished 27th last season and reports say that he's having a good offseason with the new coaching regime, I would expect him to improve, not decline. He gets the goal line carries, he catches the ball...if the new leadership can coax some life out of the passing game and take a bit of pressure off of Barlow, I see him improving to the RB22 range, making him a steal so late in the draft.
"Bagger" - I have Bell ranked as the 14th RB for 2005, and ADP has him at 19, so this is not a huge discrepancy. However, I expect that to be about a two-point per game difference between those two rankings over the course of the season, and many times that can be the difference in a fantasy game. Bell was part of the RB carousal for Denver in 2004 so he did not have much of a chance to produce. However, with Droughns traded and Griffin demoted, Bell is primed to be the star in Denver. In the three games he got more than ten carries he averaged almost 90 yards a game, and in none of those games was he even given the ball 20 times. If he can be the workhorse at RB, even my ranking of 14th may be undervaluing what he can do. Bell is the third round RB in 2005 that has the best potential to be a top ten back. Grabbing him in the early third round is very similar to what most people were able to do with Tiki Barber in 2004. That worked out pretty well. "Family Matters" - The 19th RB taken? From Denver? What a steal. First off, Shanny has said that Bell be given every opportunity to be the man. After last year’s 5.3 YPC average and an improved beefed up frame to be more durable, Bell is positioned to do what others before him have: rush for over 1200 yards! In fact, Bell could easily be top five if he just stays healthy. Don’t be too concerned about any RBBC as Shanny likes to stick with one guy. While Clarett is an interesting pick, he’s more of a project that could take a year or two to become NFL ready. Bell is ready now and will work his rear end off to keep Clarett on the bench. With an ADP of RB19, you can have a top 3-5 RB to build your team around. Knowing you can get him late round two or early three, Bell provides you with numerous options for your draft strategy.
Cecil Lammey - Don’t believe the Thomas Jones/Cedric Benson RBBC talk. Benson is a workhorse. He always has been and he always will be. The Bears may start the season with the two sharing carries, but by no later than week 4 Benson will take over and never look back. Cedric is great near the goal line and in short yardage situations. He has decent hands out of the backfield and can make defenders miss in the open field. Cedric is all about getting the rock. Chicago will feed him the ball 20 plus times per game, and he will wear down defenses with his punishing style. Rex Grossman is a below average QB, and the Bears will need Benson to carry the load if they want to have any chance at success. Jason Wood - For 20 years and counting, at least one rookie has finished among the top 20 fantasy RBs and Benson is very likely to keep that streak alive in 2005. The Bears brought back Ron Turner to implement a power rushing attack, and then used a top-5 draft choice on Benson. He’s a durable power runner and one of the most effective goal line backs to enter the league in years. Benson’s ADP is likely reflective of Thomas Jones’ presence on the roster, but Jones isn’t a good fit for Turner’s offense.
"GregR" - The next closest RB last year, LT2, lagged behind Priest by 5.6 fantasy points / game. LT2's and Culpepper's total VBD value in FP/G were only 8 and 9 respectively. So Priest's lead on the 2nd and 3rd most valuable players last year was more than 50% of their value! Other than a healthy LT2, Priest is still ahead of every other fantasy player by a country mile. What has some people passing on Priest early is the risk that he doesn't play a full season. But combine the level of Priest's performance compared to others with the proven nature of his backup and also with the opportunity to still get a solid RB2 with upside in the late 2nd round, and the benefits more than outweigh the risks. Even with needing as high as a 5th round pick to secure Larry Johnson as a handcuff, a team taking Priest will come out ahead of the team going with another player and using that 5th round pick on a starter at another position. "SammyJankis" - Holmes’ 12th place overall finish in 2004 amongst RBs using the FBG’s scoring system is amazing considering that he only played in eight games. Only three RBs in the top 50 played in eight or fewer games: Priest at #12, Julius Jones at #28 and Tyrone Wheatley at #50. In fact the trio of Holmes, Larry Johnson and Derrick Blaylock combined for an astronomical 2012 rushing yards, 709 receiving yards and 35 TDs. The top fantasy scorer in 2002 and 2003 is healthy now, and the Chiefs are committed to using a one back set and giving Holmes the majority of the carries. It may sound crazy to anoint a player going fourth overall as a value pick, but when that player has a strong chance of being the top fantasy scorer, every person that passes on Holmes is likely giving the next owner a gift.
Aaron Rudnicki - Marshall Faulk is 32 years old, and the Rams feature RB job has been turned over to Jackson, who averaged 5.0 yards per carry last year as a rookie. He has the size, speed, and hands to play on every down and also faces one of the weaker schedules against the run. The Rams return all the weapons of their high powered passing attack and have made significant improvements to their offensive line. As long as Martz is willing to commit to the run, Jackson has a chance to finish as a top-10 RB this year. "Unlucky" - Jackson will be the featured RB in STL. He’s a good, tough runner. Many people lament Martz’s bias to pass, but part of that may have been due to Faulk’s inability to carry the ball so many times. Jackson will be counted on heavily, and could really surprise if he gets enough goalline looks. Jackson is currently #10 on my board.
Cathy Fazio - Taylor is being drafted as the 24th running back off the board. Granted, there are injury questions that plague Taylor who is still recovering from knee surgery this off season and his history with injuries frightens fantasy owners. But if Taylor makes a complete recovery, keep in mind that he has rushed for at least 1200 yards in his last three seasons and only missed two games in that span. "Tick" - Taylor finished last season with only three TDs, which made his final ranking as WR20 a bit deceptive. He finished seventh in the league in yards from scrimmage, and despite not seeing goal line duty, his TDs should improve. He reminds me of Curtis Martin last season, when people wrote him off because he doesn't get TDs, only to have him finish with 14 on the year. I expect Taylor to be healthy, as he and the team have been promising, and see him doubling his TDs at least, leading to a finish in the RB13-18 range. Given his ADP of 39 (RB24), that's great value.
"Iwannabeacowboybaby" - Coach Gruden couldn’t say enough positive things about Carnell Williams. His ability to run and catch the ball fits Gruden’s offense perfectly. Carnell runs like a Cadillac and wins Rookie of the Year honors in 2005. "SammyJankis" - Michael Pittman’s 926 rushing yards, 391 receiving yards and ten TDs made him the #16 ranked RB in the FBG scoring system last year. This was even more impressive considering that Pittman missed the first three games of the season. But Pittman won’t be the primary ball carrier in Tampa this year, instead the honor will go to the #5 selection from the 2005 NFL draft, Carnell “Cadillac” Williams. When asked if Cadillac would be the opening day starter for the Bucs, Jon Gruden replied “There's no question about that. You don't pick a guy this high to make him a nickel back or make him an exclusive role player". Every year a rookie running back runs for 1000+ yards and greatly exceeds his average draft position. In 2005, that rookie runner will be Cadillac Williams.
"BassNBrew" - Looking back at 2004, the Jets pounded Martin into the turf with 412 touches, by far the most in the league. Despite that load, Lamont Jordan still amassed approximately 600 yd with two TDs, good for a #43 final RB ranking. Even if you don’t believe that Martin is an injury waiting to happen or will be the second coming of Eddie George, the Jets will have to share more of load with Blaylock.
Cathy Fazio - Davis will be facing competition from both DeShaun Foster and rookie Eric Shelton for Carolina’s starting running back spot. Even if Davis is healthy the likelihood of him returning to his 2003 level of performance when he rushed for 1444 yards is not great. But the probability of his being the starting running back to start the season is high.
"diesel7982" - Dillon was amazing last year with 1700+ total yards and 12 TDs in 15 games, finishing as the #7 RB. This year we should expect more of the same. Most impressively about Dillon, he is incredibly consistent, running for at least 79 yards in each of his 15 starts and scoring at least one TD in nine of them. Consistency cannot be overvalued, especially in head-to-head leagues.
Mike Anderson - At an average draft position of 6.09, or the 35th RB off the board, Reuben Droughns is very undervalued this season. Droughns was brought into Cleveland to be the starter, and by that alone should be drafted no later than the 32nd RB off the board. Take into account many teams with a cloudy RB position, and Droughns moves up even more. Droughns finished last season with 1,240 rushing yards and 8 TDs. Cleveland RB Lee Suggs is not equipped to break tackles inside with the power that Droughns’ has and should be an outside the tackles, change of pace back.
Maurile Tremblay - Foster has the physical talent to be a top ten running back, as evidenced by his 174-yard rushing performance in week two of last year. Unfortunately, his season was cut short when he broke his clavicle in the fourth game. Foster is completely recovered from that injury, and when he is healthy, he is the most talented RB on the Panthers’ roster. If he can earn and hold onto the starting job this year, Foster could duplicate the kind of success that Nick Goings had running behind the Panthers’ OL last year.
"Iwannabeacowboybaby" - Former Penn St. star finally earned a shot as the starter in Kansas City last year when Priest Holmes fell to injury. The high-powered Kansas City offense didn’t skip a beat with Johnson in as the starting tailback. It’s only a matter of time before the younger and healthier Johnson will be dominating like he did at the end of last season.
"Iwannabeacowboybaby" - While playing in only eight games, Julius Jones rushed for 819 yards and seven TDs. Heading into the 2005 season, the focus in Dallas is playing solid defense and establishing the run. Jones will do just that, as he will lead the NFC in rushing in 2005.
Mike Brown - LaMont Jordan has been dying for the opportunity to be a starting back in the NFL and now gets his chance in Oakland with a big-time offense. Owners may not want to go into a season with an unproven commodity such as Jordan, but he has done about all a player can do as a backup to workhorse Curtis Martin. He’ll be a steal for whatever owner waits a little bit for their running back.
"BassNBrew" - Lewis represents value because the five RBs ranked in front of him (James, McGahee, McAllister, Davis, and Portis) simply do not have better running skills. When you have a tier of six without a nickel’s difference between them, the last one in the draft pool becomes a bargain. Don’t let last year’s performance by Lewis concern you, the Ravens have significantly upgraded their offense and Lewis won’t have a potential 25 year visit to the crow bar hotel weighing on his mind this season.
"joffer" - I'm of the opinion that every coach, even Mike Tice, wants one guy, one RB that can do it all in every situation. Moore might not be that guy, but I think he's the closest thing to it on the Vikings' roster. With SOD done for the year, and Bennett the Brittle dreaming up new ways to get hurt, Mewelde is the best candidate to emerge as the starting Minnesota RB this year, a position that history has proven to be fantasy gold. His three game stretch as the starter last year was outstanding, and if you give me the option of Moore at pick 112 or Bennett at pick 56, I'll take the former in a heartbeat.
"LHUCKS" - That's right, despite trading for Droughns I believe the Browns still like Suggs, and I believe they have a very convincing reason as to why...the way Suggs ended his '04 season. His YPC was 4.5, and this was the only real stretch where he was given 20 plus carries per game. This is not the performance of a number 36 running back. IMHO Suggs is better than Droughns. He's quicker and has better vision. Droughns was a great back in the Denver system, but Olandis Gary was successful in Denver as well and we all saw how his career ended. I like Suggs' risk/reward ratio at his current ADP.
"BassNBrew" - Before we go to the numbers, I have to say that Westbrook is one of those special talents that make the game worth watching. Any time he touches the ball, he’s a threat to take it all the way to the end zone. Last year he finished as the tenth ranked back despite missing about 20% of the season. The Eagles would have to reduce his load by 20% for Westbrook not to reach those heights again. Quite simply, that won’t occur as Westbrook is the gas in the Eagle’s offensive machine.
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