Overvalued QBs

Mike Anderson - Highly touted coming into the league in 2001, Michael Vick has yet to play a full season. With an average draft position of 3.08, this marks the 4th year in a row that Vick has been over hyped. So far in the NFL Vick has yet to throw for over 16 passing TDs, only reaching double digit passing TDs in two of the four years he has played. Last season, Vick played in parts of 15 games, throwing 14 TDs, 12 INTs, and 3 rushing TDs. The Falcon’s system is a West Coast offense, which Vick is entirely unsuited for.

David Dodds - In 35 games starting as an NFL QB, Vick has had 4 games where he threw for over 250 yards. Last season he finished with these stats: 27th in pass attempts (321), 28th in completions (181), 26th in passing yards (2,313). He is capable of taking over a game with his feet, but when he doesn’t he will likely cost your team a fantasy win. He comes at way too expensive of a price to be this inconsistent. He also carries a big injury risk because of his running ability. Vick has yet to play all 16 games in a season.

Cathy Fazio - It is completely unwarranted to select Michael Vick this early in the draft. While Vick is undoubtedly one of the most athletically gifted NFL players, that has yet to translate into solid fantasy production. His wide receivers have been disappointing to date, opening the door for tight end Alge Crumpler who was the leading receiver for the Falcons in 2004.

Clayton Gray - Vick is drafted too high for two reason: 1) he is a highlight reel waiting to happen (people love watching their players throw up big plays) and 2) he has so much potential. The truth of the matter is that he's one of the worst fantasy options available at QB. He is far too inconsistent on a game-by-game basis so you can't rely on him to score good points every week. However, he has the potential to score multiple TDs and put up huge rushing numbers against almost any opponent so you can't bench him. What do you do with a player that you can't start every week but can't bench either? Easy...let someone else take him.

Will Grant - Every year someone gets excited about Vick. Every year some takes him much earlier than they should. Don’t be that guy. Until proven otherwise, Atlanta is a running team. Vick was healthy for most of last season and he only had three games with more than 200 yards passing. He’s never made it a full season, and he’s never passed for more than 3000 yards and 16 TDs. With Duckett and Dunn, there’s no reason for Atlanta to risk Vick on the goal line either.

Cecil Lammey - Vick has a ton of ability and at times can take over a game. However, he is too inconsistent to be taken as the QB4 in a fantasy draft. The Falcons have a great rushing offense, and Vick is a big part of that. What they lack is a big time passing game. Vick has never been known as a great passer as evidenced by him only throwing for more than 200 yards twice in the 2004 season. Michael Vick will never be confused with Steve Young, and thus one must pass on him early in the draft.

Marc Levin - I actually like Michael Vick’s chances for a solid fantasy year, but a 4th round selection as the QB4 is not a value based decision when the next round yields consistent fantasy QBs like Trent Green and Mark Bulger. Vick’s 2004 fantasy numbers were a roller coaster; he topped 250 passing yards only once, and he threw only 14 TDs against 12 INTs. While those big rush games are fantasy gold, Vick does not consistently provide them. He is a tremendous injury risk for such a high pick, and ultimately, you need weekly passing numbers from your fantasy QB.

Ron White - Vick seems to be overrated every year for his handful of sensational plays. The Falcons did little to improve their mediocre passing game this offseason. They will continue to do what they do best, and that’s running the ball. Vick is a significant injury risk, so picking him this early in any draft is a huge gamble.

Mark Wimer - The problem here is that Michael Vick is an inconsistent passer who also has an elevated risk of injury due to his scrambling/running. Consider the following about his 2004 season: Vick never completed more than 18 passes in any game and threw for zero TDs in six games (over 1/3 of the 2004 campaign). He was 14th among all fantasy QBs in fantasy points per game. Vick managed a 56.4 completion percentage, which is not impressive. Compounding Vick’s problems, the Falcons have an undistinguished stable of wide receivers, none of whom qualify as a “go-to guy”.

Jason Wood - Every season there are fantasy leaguers who stumble over themselves to roster Michael Vick, believing that his passing skills are going to reach a level where he becomes an overall elite fantasy option. Yet, last season Vick finished a modest 12th among fantasy QBs despite running for 902 yards. Looking at the Atlanta receiving corps, it’s difficult to envision how or why Vick can morph into an accurate passer in 2005, and to draft him among the top 4 or 5 at his position summarily discounts the very real risks he brings on the injury front.

David Yudkin - Michael Vick may be the most exciting player in the NFL, but until he starts posting better passing stats, he will struggle to produce as a top five QB. When Vick ranked as the #3 QB in 2002, he had over 600 more passing yards and a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio. Even playing in all 16 games last year, Vick only exceeded 200 passing yards on only three occasions. Vick may put up RB2 rushing totals, but until he can produce even as an average QB, his chances of outranking his draft position will be slim.

"Bagger" - Michael Vick - the biggest hyped player there is. He has only cracked the top ten once (in 2002) as a QB, and in 2004 he was a barely startable QB (he ranked 12th). Yet in 2005 he once again is being drafted as the fourth QB overall in the early fourth round. I believe Vick can match his 2004 numbers, and maybe barely exceed them, as I have him ranked as the 11th QB in 2005. However, there are a lot better options at the QB position that will perform better and be able to be drafted later. Pass on Vick and the hype.

"Barry Jive and the Uptown Five" - QB4? In the 4th round of a 12-team redraft? Not in this lifetime. Not for me, anyway. He's had two "almost" complete seasons (15g each) where he averages 2620 passing yds, sub-55% completion percentage, 7.1 YPA, 15 TDs/10 INTs. And that mediocre passing output is supplemented with 840 rushing yds & 4-5 TDs on the ground. And as ATL becomes a fantastic rushing team, those number are not going to skyrocket anytime soon. Nor is he going to post 8 rushing TDs on a regular basis. He's barely a QB1 in a standard scoring system, but yet owners continually draft him as if he's going to put up passing numbers like McNabb or Culpepper. Great athlete? Yes. Fourth-best FF QB? That's just laughable. Of all the players to choose from, Mike Vick is the single most over-rated player out there.

"Bloom" - Vick still has among the worst, if not the worst WR corps in the NFL. He is an extreme injury risk for a QB, putting his body on the line more than any QB in the league. Atlanta is still a run first offense – which is rarely where top fantasy QBs come from. Vick tends to lay complete eggs, whether because he’s completely ineffective or because the falcons jump out to big leads and abandon the pass. He will cripple your fantasy team way too often to justify a QB4 rating.

"diesel7982" - Michael Vick has the upside potential to be a top four QB, but he also has the downside to be in the 10-15 range of QBs. There is no value in taking him at number four, even if he performs up to expectations. Vick hasn’t shown the ability to find the WRs in Greg Knapp’s offense, which has limited his yardage and passing TDs. In addition, Vick is no longer used around the goal line on planned running plays, which will likely prevent a repeat of his fantastic 2002 season (777/8).

"Family Matters" - Vick may be the most exciting player in all of football, but the excitement hasn’t found the fantasy world in the form of points. Unfortunately, he’s also the most overrated in fantasy football. While he’s the best running QB we’ve ever seen, his passing is suspect at best and his receivers aren’t much better. To make matters worse, his #1 WR, Peerless Price, has been rumored to have difficultly with his eyes and as Sporting News recently reported, it could even be career threatening. Atlanta is a run first, second and third team and only passes when they have to. Vick will be hard pressed to break the top ten, let alone top four.

"Fullback Fro" - Michael Vick’s passing numbers are just not there to take him as early as you need to in order to get him. The problem is Vick just doesn’t get enough pass attempts to post good passing numbers, and his rushing numbers don’t make up for the lack of passing yardage and TDs. While the extra year acclimating to the West Coast Offense should definitely help, I do not see the improvement as enough to justify taking him at 44 overall.

"GregR" - Quarterback is a position where mid to late round values abound. Even with expecting improvement in the passing game for Vick in his second year in this offense, the 4th round is too high to be targetting a player who wasn't even a fantasy-worthy starter last season. His team has proven they don't need to rely on his passing to be successful, which is a big risk that he won't be called on to put up fantasy significant numbers. That risk doesn't justify the upside you might get out of him if you take him in the 4th.

"Iwannabeacowboybaby" - He’s yet to throw for 3,000 yards in a season or complete 60 percent of his passes. Vick has not played a season where he played in all 16 games, yet his average draft position at quarterback is fourth. His legs don’t make up for that much and is overvalued.

"Jurb26" - This guy seems to be on my overvalued list every year. People seem to get caught up in the glamour and potential of Mike Vick far too often from a fantasy perspective. Without a doubt he is the most prolific running QBs in the game today, heck maybe ever. He is even a good NFL QB based on his ability to win games. The problem is he does not live up to his fantasy rank most of the time. He is currently going as the #4 QB ahead of guys like: Green, Bulger, Hasselbeck, Favre, and Brooks. Until Vick proves he can be a consistent and more effective passer though, he will continue to be a fantasy risk drafted that high.

"LHUCKS" - First, Atlanta has shown they can win without the pass so there is no rush to dramatically change the offensive philosophy which yielded Vick’s 04's statistics. Second, Mike has an injury history as he has never played an entire season - averaging about 12 games over the last three years. Vick is an amazing athlete and one day may become a fantasy force, but he's simply not there yet. Until I see a marked improvement in his ability to pass the ball downfield and/or his ability to avoid injury he will be overvalued at his current ADP.

"SammyJankis" - If someone told you that a team finished first in rushing yardage, but 30th in passing yardage, chances are you’d be more interested in acquiring the team’s running back than their quarterback for your fantasy squad. Yet those are the stats from last year’s Atlanta Falcons, and Vick is the fourth quarterback off the board on average. While Vick’s impressive running numbers (902 rushing yards, three rushing scores) help offset his anemic passing numbers (2313 passing yards, 13 TDs thrown), he still finished as only the 12th ranked QB in the FBG’s scoring system. What would cause him to rocket up into the top five this year? The continued development of Michael Jenkins? The addition of Roddy White? The fact is that the Falcons simply run too much and throw too little to justify Vick’s average draft position.

"Tick" - Vick is being taken as the fourth QB at an ADP of 44, despite finishing last season as the 12th ranked QB. I see no upgrade in the offense around him and saw no sign of improvement for Vick as last season progressed. He'll have a few monster games where he rushes for 100 yards and gets a TD, but with the very low number of passing attempts and the weak completion percentage, he just can't put up the kind of consistent numbers you need from your starting QB. He scored 12.15 or fewer points in nine regular season games last week, whereas the three top QBs had just five such weeks combined.

"Unlucky" - Atlanta did little to improve Vick’s targets. While he should improve from last year, I can’t justify his spot as the #4 QB. His running helps a lot, but his WRs are not good. He’s currently the #8 QB on my board.

Matt Hasselbeck - SEA - ADP: 64 overall, QB 7 6 votes

Mike Brown - While I like Hasselbeck’s prospects for 2005, I don’t like him in the sixth round. Why a guy like Hasselbeck goes in the sixth while other potentially huge QBs like Aaron Brooks (8), Jake Plummer (9), Drew Brees (9), and Chad Pennington (9) go significantly later is a bit confusing. And if Hasselbeck doesn’t return to 2003 form and last year was more the norm, then you’ve almost boxed yourself into Hasselbeck as your QB because of having spent such a high pick on him.

Maurile Tremblay - Hasselbeck is being selected as the #7 QB this year even though, among last year’s top 32 QBs, he ranked only 18th in fantasy points per pass attempt (including his 342 yard, two TD playoff performance against the Rams). It’s not all Hasselbeck’s fault – his starting receivers drop more balls than any other starting duo in the league – but the result is that Hasselbeck is very unlikely to outperform his draft position.

"Barry Jive and the Uptown Five" - Heading into 2004, yeah, QB7 seems about right. But what a difference a year makes. Seattle runs a nice offense under Holmgren, but Shaun Alexander is a TD black hole. Since 2002, SEA averages 23 passing TDs and 17 rushing TDs per season. While a pass/rush TD ratio of 57/43 is nice for the NFL, it's not exactly what I'm looking for from my QB1's offense. Add to that a set of WRs with a contagious case of the dropsies ( I've seen better hands on a clock), Hasselbeck's completion pct. has dropped steadily since 2002. Besides Darrell Jackson, Matt has no one to rely on. K-Rob is in & out of rehab (and likely out for the season). TE Jeremy Stevens disappears after August. Who's left? Bobby Engram, Jerheme Urban, Jerome Pathon & Joe Jurevicius. Frightening. Both for Matt and fantasy owners alike. Let him go at the top of the 6th RD and grab one of the several QBs on this list in the 8th, 9th, or even 10th RD who will providde similar results with a lower investment.

"diesel7982" - Matt Hasselbeck finished last year ranked 13th among all QBs. This was a major disappointment after his top four finish in 2002. However, he is much more likely to remain in the 10-15 range than to jump back into the top seven. Seattle has become more of a run-focused offense, and their defense has become solid enough to prevent the wild shootouts that Hasselbeck fought through in 2002.

"EBF" - Matt Hasselbeck finished last season as the #13 fantasy QB. The Seahawks failed to make any major additions in the passing game, and I don’t expect them to be forced to throw any more than they were last year. I see no reason to expect the increase in production required for Hasselbeck to justify his status as the 7th QB taken in drafts.

"joffer" - It's not that I can find a lot wrong with Matt Hasselbeck, it's that I like the guys ranked behind him more. Brooks has been more consistent, Collins has better targets, Favre has a much better track record, Plummer's 2004 season was too good to ignore, etc. Seattle is still a run first team. The receivers still have football-repelling hands, there's no big time TE, and Holmgren seems to be on the hot seat. He's not a bad option, but QB7 for Hasselbeck is too risky for my taste.

Joey Harrington - DET - ADP: 129 overall, QB 22 5 votes

Mike Anderson - Joey Harrington has an average draft position of 10.09 and is perhaps the most over rated player on the entire board. Jeff Garcia wasn’t brought to Detroit to hold the clipboard as the team struggles under Harrington. Garcia was HC Mariucci’s starter at San Francisco, earning 3 Pro Bowl appearances. Garcia is tailor made for the West Coast offense, and with weapons Kevin Jones, Charles Rogers, Roy Williams, and Mike Williams, Garcia should take over at the first sign of trouble and have a high-powered offense firing on all cylinders while Harrington watches from the sideline.

Clayton Gray - Harrington isn’t even a good bet to be the best fantasy QB on his own team this year. It is absolutely mind boggling to see him being taken before a guy like Steve McNair. If you do take Harrington, you’ll have to be certain to grab Jeff Garcia as well.

Maurile Tremblay - Joey Harrington is the second-best QB on the Lions, and I do not expect him to hold onto the starting job all season. He is being drafted as the #22 QB off the board, on average, but I would not list him in my top 32 since I believe Jeff Garcia will start more games this year than Harrington will. Even if Harrington does retain the starting job, he hasn’t yet shown the ability to create fantasy-worthy production.

Jason Wood - If you think Joey Harrington will remain the Lions starting quarterback for the majority of 2005, than there’s no reason to question his selection as the 21st QB drafted. But if you believe, as I do, that Jeff Garcia was brought in to run Steve Mariucci’s offense sooner rather than later, Harrington is too risky a bet when there are still eight to ten other starters on the board. Garcia went to three Pro Bowls playing for Mariucci, and Harrington has done nothing to suggest he’s capable of holding off the savvy veteran.

"LHUCKS" - You don't bring in your former Pro Bowl quarterback who knows your system to ride the pine. A competitor like Garcia doesn't go to Detroit because he likes riding the bench. Garcia is a better QB than Harrington...I know of no other way to put it. Harrington does not appear to have the decision making ability and/or accuracy to be a big time QB in the NFL. Maybe that will come down the line for Joey and maybe it wont. One thing is certain: unless he makes a vast improvement, his time as the starting QB in Detroit will soon be over, and this risk alone makes Harrington an overvalued fantasy QB in ’05.

Drew Brees - SD - ADP: 89 overall, QB 13 4 votes

Colin Dowling - Call me skeptical. I just don’t think one pretty good season makes Brees a borderline starting quarterback in fantasy leagues. Granted, the price isn’t exactly high, but I can think of half a dozen guys being drafted behind Brees that I would rather have leading my team. Brees finished 11th among quarterbacks last year, and that was with some big names not playing a15+ games. I just don’t see him repeating 2004, and if he does, he still isn’t likely to outperform his draft spot.

David Yudkin - Few teams in recent memory had the turnaround the Chargers had in 2004. However, their success may have been aided by a last place schedule. This year, the Bolts will face much stiffer competition. Brees averaged 178 passing yards against playoff teams vs. 228 against non-playoff foes. Against playoff teams, he had five TD passes and five INT in five games. Compare that to 22 TD passes and just two INTs in ten games against non-playoff teams. For the fantasy gurus, that’s 11.9 fantasy ppg vs. playoff teams and 20 ppg vs non-playoff teams. With a #11 ranking last year, even a slight drop-off in production will cause Brees to fall more than two spots.

"Couch Potato" - I am probably a minority of one here, but sell last year's amazing turnaround season to someone else. It was a fabulous year for the Chargers and for Brees, but I think it was an aberration and not buying it this year. This is the same QB who, in his previous 27 games over two years, had 28/31 TDs to INTs (27/7 last year), 6.1 yards/attempt (7.9 last year), 59% completion pct (65% last year). He has no true #1 receiver, teams now have had an opportunity to game plan for Antonio Gates, and the AFC defenses of Hou, Ten, Jax, and Cle (eight TDs, zero INTs against them) will be replaced by those of NE, Pit, Buf, and Mia. Their brutal non-division schedule also includes Ind, NYJ, and Phi, and I expect to see about a 4-7 record when Philip Rivers takes over and finishes out the season. SD went 1-4 last year against playoff teams, 11-0 against the rest. Brees will not be on any of my rosters this season.

"Jurb26" - Is anyone really sold on this guy as a fantasy producer yet? Apparently so, his ADP is at QB13 making him a borderline starter in nearly every league. I think Brees had one of those "charmed" seasons more than anything though. It seems to be a common opinion that SD played over their heads last year. This was greatly due to Brees playing so well. I find it very hard to believe that the SD offense will be as prolific as it was last year and score 53 TDs when in years prior they scored only 37, 36, and 29 respectively. LT will be back healthy and he should become more effective. Gates is not likely to go for 1000/13 2 years in a row. Plus, Brees has Rivers chomping on the bit to steal playing time. The team made no real additions to the WRs to get over excited about. In short, I think Brees saw a career year in 2004. He will come back down to earth and towards the mean in 2005.

Peyton Manning - IND - ADP: 3 overall, QB 1 4 votes

Mike Brown - Don’t get me wrong; I think Manning is the top quarterback in fantasy football, especially now that Daunte Culpepper doesn’t have Randy Moss around anymore. That said I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that Manning will not throw for 49 touchdowns again. Additionally, I think this year we’ll see a return to the stud running backs being key. Manning will likely perform as one of the best QBs in fantasy, but he’d have to do an AWFUL lot to live up to the #4 overall selection.

Chris Smith - Don’t get me wrong as I love Peyton Manning and what he brings to fantasy football, but an average draft position of 1.04 could prove disastrous to a fantasy roster. No quarterback should ever be taken so high in a fantasy draft, and Manning will have a tough time duplicating the remarkable numbers he put up last year. He should go off the board no later than the last couple of picks in round one.

"Bagger" - I take it back. Manning is hyped even more than Vick is in 2005. And honestly, it is for good reason. Manning is coming off an ungodly 4,500+ passing yard 49 TD year shattering all sorts of records. However, the ability to come even close to replicating those figures is going to be extremely tough. And while he very well may be the #1 QB in 2005 (I have him ranked as #2), taking him with the third overall pick in your drafts is RIDICULOUS. Manning is going to have to perform at these record breaking levels again just to come close to justifying the point differential of passing on a running back in the early first round. In the last five years, the #1 fantasy QB has averaged approximately 400 points in a traditional scoring system. The #5 QB has averaged approximately 330 points (and can often be had in the fifth to seventh rounds as many hyped QBs who do not perform as well are taken before them). That is not even a five-point per game difference between the #1 and #5 QBs. You are going to draft a player with a less than five PPG advantage over his peers that can be drafted four rounds or later with the third overall pick? Don’t.

"Fullback Fro" - For many people, it will be hard to pass up on Manning, no matter where you draft. I see no reason why Peyton Manning can’t come close to the numbers he put up last year, but the risk is just too great to take him as the third overall pick. The VBD principles may say to take him here, but with the lack of elite RB talent, I couldn’t bring myself to do it with the likes of Shaun Alexander and Priest Holmes on the board. I’ll take my stud RB and a solid QB in the 7th.

Carson Palmer - CIN - ADP: 85 overall, QB 11 4 votes

Ron White - Palmer is only entering his second season as a starter. He has the weapons at his disposal, but he lacks experience. The Bengal’s defense should also be improved this season under new coordinator Chuck Bresnahan, which could result in more from the ground game (especially late in the season when the weather turns). Palmer‘s ADP is above Jake Delhomme, Jake Plummer, Chad Pennington, Brian Griese, and many others who should outplay him this season.

Mark Wimer - Carson Palmer is not far enough along in his NFL tenure to warrant a #1 QB selection. He has only 14 games under his belt, and though his wide receiver corps is very talented, it will be up to Palmer to consistently deliver the strong play that he displayed during his final four games of 2004. I do see him improving, but not enough to leap into fantasy-starter status during 2005.

"BassNBrew" - On a PPG basis, Palmer finished #22 last year behind guys like Leftwich, Pennington, and Carr. Now ADP has him in front of Brooks, Plummer, and Delhomme at #11. He may make this jump, but I’m not paying the premium for a zero return investment. Additionally, a fourth of his season will be against PIT and BAL where you’ll be tempted to bench him.

"Tick" - Palmer finished last season as QB20 despite missing two games, and the former #1 pick is headed for a very good career. However, I believe people are jumping the gun by taking him as their starter this season. The offense around him is unchanged, so it's up to him to make the improvements to become a solid FF QB. I believe he will improve, projecting him with 70 more attempts, a higher yards/attempts ratio, and a big improvement in both TDs and INTs, yet this still isn't enough to push him so high in the rankings. I see his progression looking much like Byron Leftwich's from his first season to his second - slight improvements across the board in his stats, but not enough to justify his draft position this year.

David Carr - HOU - ADP: 104 overall, QB 17 3 votes

Cecil Lammey - Carr has shown great toughness during his brief NFL career. What he hasn’t shown is an ability to get the ball in the endzone on a consistent basis. Last year Carr had 13 games in which he threw 0-1 TD passes. And during those games he threw 12 interceptions. He is rated as the QB17, but there are others like Byron Leftwich rated below him that have better weapons surrounding him on offense.

Chase Stuart - Carr showed improvement his third year in Houston, due in large part to having a very easy schedule. Head coach Dom Capers’ philosophy will limit Carr’s potential, as the Texans ran more often than they passed last year. Only three teams threw less red zone passes than Houston, and the team ranked 27th in passing touchdowns. With Andre Johnson being the only credible WR on the roster and a conservative offense, all the talent in the world won’t make Carr a fantasy force in 2005.

"Bloom" - He still has only one real weapon in the passing game, Andre Johnson, and defenses found ways to shut him down in the second half of the season last year. Carr’s production slumped terribly when Johnson was neutralized, which does not bode well for this season as Carr does not appear to have the ability to create offense on his own and no real #2 option has been brought to Houston. All of the QBs below Carr in the top 150 have a higher upside – he should not be considered until QB24 or later.

Daunte Culpepper - MIN - ADP: 15 overall, QB 2 3 votes

"BostonFred" - Daunte Culpepper will be drafted at least a round too early in most drafts. Culpepper's been the top QB over the last five years. And I think Culpepper could be the #1 QB next year. But it's the risk, not the reward, that makes him a bad pick in the second round. If he meets expectations, he'll only have earned his pick back. If he doesn't, you wasted a second round pick on an above average starter in a year when there's a lot of depth at QB. Yes, Randy Moss is a big reason I think Culpepper's overrated. But their schedule is harder this season, Minnesota has a first year offensive coordinator, defenses will have adjusted to the enforcement of the five yard no contact rule, and the team should have an improved defense that keeps Culpepper from having to throw as much.

"EBF" - Daunte Culpepper has produced great statistics for the majority of his career, but it remains to be seen whether or not he can sustain his lofty numbers over an entire season without Randy Moss. Moss is one of those rare WRs who can single-handedly elevate his QB’s statistical production. Losing him won’t prevent Culpepper from having a great season, but it makes Daunte a risk as the 15th player taken overall.

"Iwannabeacowboybaby" - Culpepper is coming off a career year and is losing wide receiver Randy Moss and running back Onterrio Smith. Culpepper is being drafted as if there have been no changes made to their offensive attack. I recommend letting others take him early in the second round and load up at the running back position.

Brett Favre - GB - ADP: 71 overall, QB 9 3 votes

Cathy Fazio - Brett Favre is coming off of his best season since 1998 with 346 completions for 4088 yards and 30 touchdowns. Granted, there has been no change to the Packers’ offense and Javon Walker leads a very accomplished corps of receivers. But a regression back towards the mean should be expected from Favre, making this draft spot too early of a pick for him.

Andy Hicks - Drafting Brett Favre this year is fraught with danger. Not only did Favre throw for multiple interceptions in seven games, including the four INTs effort in the playoffs, but he struggled against some of the better defenses last season. This year Green Bay looks in danger of regressing, and no matter how good Favre has been, at age 36 he can no longer carry this offense like he used to. If you draft Favre, you’ll need to play him in suitable matchups only, negating his worth. That results in another good QB having to be drafted to complement Favre. Caution is advised when considering Favre.

Chase Stuart - Favre had another excellent season in 2004, but there are better QBs to anchor your team in 2005. Green Bay’s offseason left a lot to be desired: two productive offensive guards signed with new teams, Pro Bowl WR Javon Walker threatened to hold out and Favre publicly criticized him, and the Packers didn’t add any impact defensive players. Brooks, Bulger, Collins and Plummer are better fantasy options for this year and will likely be had later in your draft than Favre.

Tom Brady - NE - ADP: 74 overall, QB 10 1 vote

Aaron Rudnicki - Tom Brady has been remarkably consistent over the past 3 seasons, finishing as the #9, #11, and #10 ranked fantasy QB. His numbers seemed to decline during the 2nd half of the season, however, as Corey Dillon became a much bigger focus of the offense. The loss of Charlie Weis will also be tough to overcome, as he was the man most responsible for designing the offensive gameplans and calling the plays every week.

Jake Delhomme - CAR - ADP: 98 overall, QB 15 1 vote

"Unlucky" - Carolina was forced to pass a lot more last year due to injuries to all of their RBs. The defense also had a down year, forcing more late game passing. With the loss of Muhammad, the drafting of Shelton, and the return of Foster and Davis, Carolina figures to get back to running the ball much more. This will reduce Delhomme’s opportunities. He’s currently the #23 QB on my board.

Eli Manning - NYG - ADP: 132 overall, QB 23 1 vote

Aaron Rudnicki - While the Giants have made several upgrades on offense that should make Manning’s job easier, ranking him as the #21 QB seems optimistic. In the 9 games he played last year, he only topped 200 yards passing once and failed to throw a single TD in five of them. Plaxico Burress is capable of being a true #1 WR, but he has been wildly inconsistent during his 5 year career. Amani Toomer is coming off his worst season as a starter, and he never seemed to click with Manning in any of the games they both played.

Donovan McNabb - PHI - ADP: 26 overall, QB 3 1 vote

Chris Smith - McNabb is a good quarterback, but I look at the Eagles offseason so far and get worried. WR Terrell Owens upset McNabb with his ‘out of shape’ comments, Freddie Mitchell has flown the coup and Brian Westbrook isn’t happy with his contract situation. I expect McNabb to tumble slightly this season and shouldn’t go until near the end of round three at the earliest.

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