Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players
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| Introduction • QB: [under] [over] • RB: [under] [over] • WR: [under] [over] • TE: [under] [over] | |||||||||||||||||||
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Undervalued QBs
David Dodds - Jake established career highs in passing yards (4,089), yards per attempt (7.8), TDs (27 passing, 1 rushing) and fantasy points in 2004. These marks were good enough to be the 5th ranked fantasy QB last year. With essentially the same team, Plummer is getting no love in drafts this year. With a schedule that contains playing the soft AFC West defenses twice a year, Plummer looks to be outstanding value. Will Grant - Plummer was QB5 in fantasy scoring in his first full season as a Denver starter. He set career bests in yards, yards per attempt and TD passes. Watts is improving at WR. Bell should provide consistency at RB. Best of all, Danny Kanell is NO challenge for playing time. Plummer should easily make the top ten for fantasy QBs. Chris Smith - Last season, Plummer was the fifth best fantasy quarterback, and there is little reason to believe he’ll slip far from that total this season. His ADP puts him in the 14th slot, and that certainly represents value. Chase Stuart - Jake Plummer ranked as the ninth best QB in fantasy points per game during his eleven-game 2003 season. His follow-up performance made him the fifth best fantasy QB in 2004. When Plummer has been on the field for the Broncos, he’s produced big fantasy numbers. At 30 years old Plummer set career highs in passing yards, touchdowns and yards per attempt last year. With the development of young receivers Ashley Lelie (25), Darius Watts (23) and Jeb Putzier (26), Plummer may be in for his finest year yet. Maurile Tremblay - Plummer has shown improvement in each of his two years seasons since joining the Broncos and seems well suited for Mike Shanahan’s version of the West Coast offense. He finished as the fifth-best fantasy QB last year, and I see no reason to expect a steep decline in his play this year. The emergence of budding young WR Ashley Lelie should only help. David Yudkin - Plummer ranked as the #5 fantasy QB last year, and the Broncos return the core of their offense and all of their main receiving threats. Denver also has the luxury of playing in the high scoring AFC West and ranked in the top ten in almost every team passing category in 2004. Given that Plummer is currently getting drafted almost ten spots lower than where he ranked last year and with healthy RB receiving options out of the backfield, it is unlikely that Plummer will 20% of his production—which is basically what would have had to happen to rank as the #14 QB last year. "Bagger" - Plummer was the fifth ranked QB in 2004 based on this scoring system, yet in 2005 he is taken as the 14th QB & 92nd overall. This makes him a late 7th round draft pick in 12 team leagues. Plummer has Rod Smith who is still a great veteran receiver, Lelie and Watts who are coming into their own as NFL wide receivers, and the “future Hall of Famer Jerry Rice™” to throw to. Furthermore, with two legitimate TEs in Jeb Putzier and Stephen Alexander, Plummer has a myriad of options to throw to. If that fails, Plummer is a solid runner as a QB and has rushed for over 200 yards in each of the past three seasons. Plummer should duplicate his top five QB finish in 2005. "Barry Jive and the Uptown Five" - The QB that gets no respect. 232 YPG/ 60% comp pct / 7.5 YPA / 21 TDs / 14 INTs. Add in 200 yds and a couple TDs on the ground and you have a solid Top 10 fantasy QB. But he's draft in the 8th round as a QB1 in a QBBC. News flash. He's a QB1 - period. Denver's offense is the perfect place for Jake. A powerful running game makes his play-action passing game very effective. With a steady possession WR in Rod Smith, a deep threat in Lelie, and a field-stretching TE in Putzier, Jake has plenty to work with. Feel confident about his floor when making projections. Re-draft or dynasty, as QB14, Plummer is HUGE value. "BassNBrew" - Plummer is by far the most ADP neglected QB. In 2003 Plummer finished ranked as the ninth best point per game producer at 18.2 ppg. In 2004 he improved on that ranking to move into the sixth spot at 20.0 ppg. Surely having Clarett and Dayne taking up atmosphere on the bench or implementing the Erie Coast defense won’t negatively impact Plummer. The stats Plummer runs up in the division games v. Oakland/KC/SD alone should put him in the top ten. "diesel7982" - Jake Plummer was the fifth ranked QB in FF last year. In the offseason, Denver has added Jerry Rice and Stephen Alexander, to go along with emerging weapons like Ashley Lelie, Darius Watts and Jeb Putzier. And he still has the ever reliable Rod Smith. In addition they’ve gotten rid of Ruben Droughns, a 1200 yard rusher last year. Obviously, there will be great focus on the passing game in Denver this year, and Plummer will benefit greatly. Another top eight finish is likely. "Family Matters" - Last year’s #5 ranking surprised many folks and pleased his owners as he was drafted around QB10-15 in most leagues. This year’s ADP of QB14 provides similar value as well. Little has changed from last year on the offense. While more rushing yards and TDs should be expected, Plummer will continue to pass the ball to maintain a balanced attack. While Smith has been a consistent presence catching the ball, Lelie is more experienced and provides Plummer with a bonafide deep big play threat. Watts is expected to emerge and provide Plummer another threat after disappointing last year. TE Putzier should provide another reliable option to keep defenses honest. "joffer" - He was the #5 QB last year, and he's listed as QB14? This one is a no-brainer. Nothing has changed for the worse this offseason in Jake's situation. Ashley Lelie is continuing to mature, Rod Smith is as reliable as ever, and Darius Watts has been turning some heads with his offseason development. The running game is never a concern in Denver, but with Tatum Bell ready to take the reigns, it may very well improve. Best of all, Jake and the Broncos get to play those AFC West pass defenses two times a piece. "Tick" - Plummer finished fifth last year among QBs, and there are no scheduled changes in the offense. While his passing TDs were a dramatic increase over previous season totals, he actually was close to the same pace in 2003 before being injured. His rushing totals were actually down slightly, and a recovery in that area should offset and drop in passing totals. While Rod Smith is aging, Darius Watts is improving and Ashley Lelie emerged last season. Many have said that Denver won't pass as much this season, but Plummer's attempts were in line with Denver's totals over the last five seasons. I see no reason why Plummer can't repeat his finish from last season, which would give tremendous value. "Unlucky" - Plummer is the #9 QB on my board and finished higher than that in many leagues last season. The running game isn’t significantly stronger, and the receiving corps is improving. Lelie is improving, as are Watts and Putzier.
Cecil Lammey - Brooks can be frustrating at times. His interception totaled doubled from what it was in 2003. However, he should rank higher than a QB12 in 2005. Brooks is a fairly consistent QB and had only one game where he threw no TD passes. He also is a threat to run and can make plays with his feet. He only had 4 games of less than 200 yards passing in 2004. Brooks also has some great maturing weapons around him. Couple that with a healthy Deuce McAllister and it means great things for anyone who drafts Brooks. Aaron Rudnicki - In his 4 full years as a starting QB, Aaron Brooks has thrown for 3500+ yards and 20+ TDs each year and has never finished lower than #8 among fantasy QBs. The Saints have a very talented group of weapons surrounding him and have also upgraded their offensive line with the best tackle in the draft. New offensive coordinator Mike Sheppard plans to set up the pass with the run, which should lead to a more consistent offense and increased opportunities for big plays via play-action. Chase Stuart - Aaron Brooks has ranked in the top five in passing touchdowns (third), passing yards (fourth), and fantasy points (third) over the past four years. He’s just 29 years old and has provided steady production each year. Brooks has the most combined passing and rushing attempts in the NFL the past four years (averaging 600 per season). With great talents around him in Deuce McAllister, Joe Horn and Donte’ Stallworth, there’s no reason to think he won’t have another top-eight fantasy season. Mark Wimer - Brooks threw the ball as much as ever last season (309/542 for 3810 yards, 21 TDs and 16 interceptions) and also added his customary ~200 yards rushing and 2-4 rushing scores. His TDs did drop off from the previous 3 years (26, 27, and 24 respectively), but that looks more like an anomaly than a trend. If he can get back into the mid-20s range with his TDs, Brooks is a lock to land in the middle of the top ten fantasy QBs and could possibly crack top five status. He’s not a marginal QB1 – he’s a solid QB1. Jason Wood - Fantasy games are won and lost on stats accumulation, not on whether a QB wins or loses on Sundays. It’s that disparity which explains why Brooks is perennially undervalued on draft day. As a real NFL starter, he’s rightfully not considered among the league’s elite. But don’t let that cloud your judgment; he’s a fantasy stud. In the last four seasons, Brooks has finished no worse than 8th, thrown for no less than 3,500 yards, and delivered no fewer than 25 total touchdowns. Bank on those numbers again in 2005. "BostonFred" - Aaron Brooks has been a top ten QB every single season he's been the starter. Yet his ADP is QB12, available in the eighth round. So you can have three backs, three receivers and a TE and still get a perennial top ten TE. That's a nice start to any fantasy team. "joffer" - I hold no punches when it comes to criticizing Brooks and his inability to lead an NFL team, but his fantasy production is difficult to argue with. He's finished sixth, seventh, fifth, and eighth the last four years. Aaron's YPA is very consistent from year to year, and he's always good for 200 yards rushing and a couple of TDs on the ground. Deuce is healthy, Joe Horn is still Joe Horn (just ask him), and they've improved the offensive line with the additions of the rookie Brown and free-agent Mayberry. Pencil Aaron Brooks in for 3700 yards and 23 TDs and grab him in the 7th round and consider yourself lucky. "Jurb26" - For a guy who has never finished worse than QB8, Brooks sure is slipping in drafts, down to QB12 based on his ADP. Like him or not, this is a high quality starter in fantasy football that can be had late (round seven or so). He plays in a near ideal situation in NO with quality weapons all around him and a dome team. His defense is less than stellar forcing high scoring affairs fairly often. Best of all though, Brooks happens to be a consistent fantasy producer year in and year out. I will gladly take this guy as the last starter off the board at the QB position.
Colin Dowling - I must be the only one that got the memo about Brian Griese seamlessly sliding in to Rich Gannon’s role as Head-Maestro for Jon Gruden’s fiendish passing offense. Griese is the type of veteran, high-accuracy passer that is tailor-made to excel in Gruden’s offense. Based on the fact that he averaged almost two touchdowns and 239 yards per contest while completing 69.4% of his passes – numbers that compare almost identically to Marc Bulger – and it would be an absolute shock if Griese didn’t outperform the 20th spot among quarterbacks. Marc Levin - As usual, there are many value plays at QB, but Brian Griese at QB20 is one of the best. He was the 13th best QB in fantasy points per game in 2004, and he plays for a coach in Jon Gruden who loves to throw. It is reasonable to expect Griese’s average of nearly two TDs per game to continue in 2005. Best of all, he has little competition for the start and an even better receiving corps with the addition of Ike Hilliard and pass-catching rookie TE Alex Smith. "Barry Jive and the Uptown Five" - The bumbling, stumbling, dog-loving, stair-falling, car-rear-ending butt of many an FBG joke, Brian Griese is the perfect fit for Gruden's WCO in Tampa. 240 YPG, 69% comp. pct, 7.8 YPA and almost 2 TDs per game… "Gold, Jerry! Gold, I tell ya!" Add some young talent to the skill positions (Cadillac, Clayton, Alex Smith at TE, as well as one of my own 2005 rookie sleepers, J.R. Russell), Brian is going to have plenty to work with. If you want a recent, comparable situation, think of Rich Gannon when Gruden was in Oakland. A seasoned, smart QB who kicked around the league awhile before posting excellent numbers. That's the value of Brian Griese. "diesel7982" - After taking over for Chris Simms in the week five game against the Saints, Griese averaged 239 yards and 1.8 TDs, projecting to 3824 yards and 29 TDs over a full season. Joey Galloway will be back for a full season, and the additions of Ike Hilliard, Anthony Becht and Alex Smith will allow Griese to continue producing at a top ten pace. He’s an incredible value pick at QB20. "EBF" - Brian Griese only played in 11 games last year and still managed to finish the season as the #23 fantasy QB. While there are some job security concerns due to the presence of Chris Simms, Griese is a great bet to outperform his status as the 20th QB taken in drafts. Last season he was among the NFL’s top ten passers (with 200+ attempts) in both QB rating and yards per attempt. He also led all QBs with a phenomenal 69.3% completion percentage. "Fullback Fro" - John Gruden gave Griese the starting QB job midway through Tampa Bay’s season in 2004, and he ran with it. In just 11 games he threw 20 TDs and only 8 INTs with solid yardage totals. That would have given the savvy Griese owner 18.25 FPG. Tampa Bay rewarded Griese with a new contract and a renewed faith. Fantasy owners can also have confidence in making Griese their fantasy QB1 in round 10 allowing them to gobble up WRs and RBs in earlier rounds. "Iwannabeacowboybaby" - In just 11 games last season, Griese threw for 20 TDs and completed nearly 70 percent of his passes. With an emerging star in wide receiver Michael Clayton and a legitimate running back in Carnell Williams, Griese is in for a productive year. Look for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense to improve this year. "Tick" - Griese's ADP is ridiculously low given his statistics both last season and over his career. He finished as QB23 last season despite only playing in 11 games and getting 336 pass attempts. As the clear starter with a new contract, he should reasonably be expected to get over 500 attempts this season. He had a spike in yards per attempt last year (to 7.8), but so did every other QB with the rule changes. The 500 attempts at 7.5 ypa yields 3750 yards passing as a conservative estimate. Even knocking down Griese's TDs per attempt, a prediction of 24 is conservative, yet puts him at around 275 fantasy points this season. That's a low starter/high backup in my rankings and makes Griese a great value for anyone looking to fill out their RBs and WRs early, then pick up a late value QB.
Clayton Gray - With all of the talent Tennessee lost in the offseason, McNair shouldn’t be expected to reach fantasy starter status this year, but he is far too talented to sink to the 13th round. At that stage in your draft, he is an excellent value as a back-up QB. Cecil Lammey - Sure, Air McNair had a rough 2004. But this is a guy that is just a year removed from an MVP season. For 3 straight seasons from 2001-2003 Steve McNair ranked as the #7 fantasy QB. Ah, how quickly some forget. Let McNair fly under the radar during your draft and you will be laughing all the way to the bank in 2005. Sure, he’s lost Derrick Mason, but Drew Bennett and Tennessee’s young WR corps are more than up to the task. Add in the fact that the Titans defense is less than stellar, and you have a recipe for playing from behind which means lots of “Air” in McNair. Norm Chow has also installed an offense that is best suited for a QB like McNair. While not the threat he used to be, Steve can still get up and run for some scores too. Ron White - It sounds as though McNair is healthy. This may be his last season, so he will want to go out with a bang. He lost receiver Derrick Mason but he gets back Tyrone Calico. New offensive coordinator Norm Chow runs a simple offense that should allow for a quick transition. The Titans are in a rebuilding effort and will likely need to air it out this season to stay in games. McNair will be a better option than many quarterbacks being drafted ahead of him. "BassNBrew" - Combine McNair’s and Volek’s stats from last year and you get 307 fantasy points, which is one pt behind the seventh ranked Delhomme. McNair alone finished ranked seventh in 2003, eighth in 2002, and seventh in 2001, all under Jeff Fisher. Anyone else perceptive enough to notice a trend? I don’t believe that McNair’s skills have eroded to a Rattay or Holcombe level. Even if you’re not confident in McNair’s ability to stay healthy, Volek is a dirt cheap insurance policy to lock up a top ten performing QB in your fantasy lineup. "Bloom" - One injury plagued season and we're ready to write off a perennial starting quality fantasy QB? QB skills do not deteriorate in the mid 30s. There’s no reason to predict a drop-off strictly because of age; older men Favre and Green are going higher. McNair’s most serious injury from last year was fixed with surgery in the offseason – no reason to predict a drop-off because of lingering injuries. The Titans defense lacks an experienced pass rush and secondary, which should get them into shootouts, padding McNair’s stats the same way Volek’s were padded in the second half last season. The Titans running game consists of oft-injured Chris Brown and a list of nobodies behind him – the Titans will probably have to ask McNair to be the focus of the offense, and he shown year after year that he can handle that load. "Family Matters" - With an ADP of QB19, McNair will be passing quite a bit as the Tennessee defense will be challenged to stop opposing offenses. McNair missed a good deal of 2004 with the sternum injury and appears to be completely recovered heading into 2005. Prior to last year, McNair ranked seventh among QBs three straight years. While he may be pressed to finish better than tenth this year, he should easily outperform his ADP of QB19. "LHUCKS" - His last full season he was the 2003 MVP and finished #7 in QB FF scoring. An injury occurs where he misses a good portion of '04, and the team loses their #1 WR in Mason. All of a sudden he drops to #19 in the QB ADP rankings? Add in the creative play calling of Norm Chow and you've got yourself a player that is very likely to surpass his ADP. Fisher and company are not afraid to air it out, and the defense, while improved, is mediocre at best. I foresee many shootouts and big numbers for McNair in '05.
Cathy Fazio - The Jacksonville offense is incorporating a new scheme, focusing more on downfield passing attempts. Jimmy Smith remains one of the most consistent receiving threats in the NFL, and second year receiver Reggie Williams can only improve on his rookie season in which he made 27 receptions for 268 yards. The potential that is there for Leftwich makes him a great value pick at this spot. He has the opportunity to improve on his first two seasons and become a solid fantasy starter. Aaron Rudnicki - Leftwich is one of the best pure passers in the game and seems poised to have a breakout year. The Jaguars can go 5-deep at wide receiver after drafting one with their highest pick in each of the past two drafts. They also fired their offensive coordinator because they felt he was too conservative and now reportedly plan to open up the passing game. Chris Smith - A new aggressive offensive philosophy in which the Jaguars will attack vertically down the field and another year of experience could translate into a top ten fantasy finish for Leftwich in 2005. He is highway robbery as the 18th quarterback taken in fantasy drafts. "Bloom" - The running game may end up very questionable with Fred Taylor’s lingering knee issues and the unproven corps of backups, which would force the offense to rely on Leftwich. His WR corps can only improve with the development of Ernest Wilford and Reggie Williams. Matt Jones may give Byron an unstoppable target in the red zone. Leftwich also has upside as he is only 25 and was really coming into his own (four straight games at 298+ yds) before getting hurt in week eight against Houston. Leftwich compares favorably to Carson Palmer, who is going seven QB slots and 28 overall slots before him. "EBF" - If Fred Taylor misses significant time and the Jaguars fail to acquire a suitable replacement then Jacksonville could suddenly become a passing team. Even if Taylor plays, Leftwich still seems like a solid bet to exceed his status as the 18th QB taken in drafts. He finished as the #18 fantasy QB last season and is still developing as a passer. Some improvement seems likely. "Jurb26" - In the past two years, Leftwich was a guy that looked to have great potential but be held back by the system with which he plays. That seems to be changing this year for the better. Jacksonville has stated that they are looking to use a more vertical game plan and even backed that through the draft by taking a chance on the huge risk/reward WR M. Jones. Jacksonville still has the proven and reliable J. Smith and also spent a few high picks last year on WRs R. Williams and Wilford. On top of that, F. Taylor looks to be out for a good part of the year forcing a more pass happy game plan. Leftwich is currently being drafted as the 18th QB, and in his two years as a starter he has finished no worse than that position while missing time in both of those seasons. With the changes in Jacksonville and a healthy season, I think it's a very safe bet that Leftwich outperforms his #18 ranking.
Mike Anderson - Kerry Collins is coming off of a 3,500 yard passing season in just 14 games. That projects out to almost 4,000 yards in a full 16 game season. With the impending retirement of Rich Gannon, Collins is solely at the helm of a team that lost nothing on offense but added all-world Randy Moss, and potential big time RB Lamont Jordan. Between Randy Moss and Jerry Porter, the Raiders arguably boast the most dangerous tandem in the game. With an average draft position of 6.08, Collins will easily finish in the top 5 of all QBs by season’s end. Andy Hicks - Kerry Collins would have to undergo a major meltdown not to post top ten stats this season. After struggling early last year he turned it around, posting 16 touchdowns to eight interceptions in his last seven games. As Collins finally became comfortable with the offense the Raiders only went out and delivered Randy Moss for the upcoming season. Add in a solid running game with addition of Lamont Jordan, and Collins has little downside and a massive upside heading into 2005, particularly if you are in a league that rewards for touchdown distance. "LHUCKS" - Deadly set of pass-catchers, check. Big numbers in '04, check. Ability to avoid injury, check. Remember that he put up 3495 yards passing in just 14 games last year which projects to well over 3900 over 16 games. Add in one of the best WRs in the history of the game and you've got yourself an underrated QB. "Unlucky" - Randy Moss makes Collins an instant top QB. While it’s potentially a gamble to take Collins ahead of T. Green and M. Bulger and M. Vick, you can’t have to look at the situation. Moss, Porter, Curry, and Gabriel at WR, no defense so plenty of high scoring games, and an unproven RB to boot. Collins is currently #4 on my board.
Mike Anderson - Kurt Warner steps into the perfect situation in Arizona to get back on track. Denny Green turned Jim McMahon, Randall Cunningham, and Jeff George into Pro Bowl/Playoff caliber QBs after they were presumed dead. Green has added his prototypical type RB in JJ Arrington via the draft, Anquan Boldin is a record setting WR, and Larry Fitzgerald is touted as one of the greatest prospects to come out of the draft in years. With an average draft position of 11.07, Warner is well undervalued for a QB entirely capable of leading the Cardinals deep into the playoffs while putting up Pro-Bowl numbers. Colin Dowling - You say that it’s been three years since Warner was a remotely functional quarterback? I say, “He’s being drafted behind Joey Harrington for goodness sake!” If that isn’t value, then I don’t know what is. Honestly, Warner is likely never going to be lights out quarterback again. But after watching Dennis Green resurrect Randall Cunningham’s career in a deep-ball offense that is bound to be similar to this year’s Cardinals offense, it’s difficult to not get excited about Warner’s prospects. If the Cardinal line can keep Warner upright, it’s not much of a stretch to imagine him completing passes at a 60%+ clip, which should produce nice yardage and touchdown numbers out in the desert. David Yudkin - After years of struggling to return to form, Kurt Warner may finally have found the right environment to stage a comeback. Warner had more TD passes in the last month of the 2001 season (14) than he has had in the past three seasons (ten). While Warner likely will not return to his glory days with the Rams, he could still be a productive QB. Arizona has two very talented WR in Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, and head coach Dennis Green developed a passing attack that ranked top ten in points scored, passing yards, and passing TDs seven times in Minnesota. Warner is already listed at the top of the QB depth chart. With six divisional games against bottom ten defenses, there are plenty of reasons to think Warner could perform better than the 22nd best fantasy QB. "SammyJankis" - In the past, Dennis Green has squeezed top fantasy numbers from quarterbacks that appeared to have their best days behind them. Guys like Warren Moon, Randall Cunningham and Jeff George had their careers jump started under Denny Green. Now it’s Kurt Warner’s turn. Sure, the Cardinals passing game struggled last year, but they’ve replaced their offensive coordinator, addressed their offensive line, added a running threat in J.J. Arrington and should start the season with a healthy receiving core. Kurt Warner could very well be the next veteran QB to post big numbers under Dennis Green and should easily outperform his QB24 ADP.
Mike Brown - I’m having a tough time figuring out what’s so different between 2004 and 2005. The entire key segment of the Charger offense returns intact, and now Brees will even have a full season of Keenan McCardell, as well as the return of Reche Caldwell. Additionally, Brees is once again playing for a contract, having been franchised in the off-season. People calling him a one-year wonder mustn’t have been watching last season. Maurile Tremblay - Brees' pass attempts were limited last year because of the Cleveland game (six attempts due to horrible weather) and Kansas City game (zero attempts in week 17 after the Chargers had clinched the division), but he still finished as the #11 fantasy QB. He had at least 70 fewer pass attempts than every single fantasy QB who finished ahead of him last year. Brees is an underdog to live up to last year's fantasy points per pass attempt, but he should be at least even money to beat last year's total fantasy points as long as he stays healthy, making him a nice value as the thirteenth QB off the board. "BostonFred" - Drew Brees is too good to be a QB2. His ADP is low, not because he's a bad QB, but because there's so many QBs bunched together in this tier. In these cases, whoever takes the last one is probably getting the best value. Yes, San Diego exceeded expectations last year, but I think Brees still has some upside. He was a different QB once McCardell arrived and was the #5 QB during the stretch when McCardell played.
Will Grant - An improved running game could cut into his stats, or it could open up the passing lanes and make it easier for him as well. Steve Smith returns from injury, and second year man Colbert is ready to break out. Freddie Jones adds another dimension to their passing game as well. In 2004 he was QB7. He might not be that high again, but he’ll certainly finish better than QB15. "Iwannabeacowboybaby" - Ranking 5th overall in pass attempts last season, Delhomme threw for an impressive 29 TDs and 3,886 yards. Delhomme hasn’t missed a game in the past two seasons and quietly has become a solid fantasy football quarterback. His No.1 wide receiver is back in the starting lineup in Steve Smith, so bombs away. "SammyJankis" - Dehomme was one of the league’s hottest quarterbacks down the stretch in 2004. Over the last eight games of the season, Delhomme finished as #5 ranked QB in FBG’s scoring system, sandwiched between Donovan McNabb and Brett Favre. So why is Delhomme being drafted as the 15th quarterback overall? Muhsin Muhammad and his 16 TDs are now in Chicago, but Steve Smith routinely outperformed Muhammad before last year and Smith is expected to be 100% by the start of training camp. Maybe people think that Delhomme’s 2004 season was an aberration, but John Fox disagrees. At the end of last season he said, “I think (Delhomme’s) decision making's sped up. I just think in his second year as a full-time starter, he's continuing to get better.” Delhomme is a solid starter with plenty of upside that can be had late.
David Dodds - Marc just missed throwing for 4,000 yards in 2004 despite playing just over 13 games (went 3 for 4 in week 13 and missed weeks 14 and 15). Despite this lack of playing time, Marc finished the year with 3,964 passing yards and 24 TDs (21 passing, 3 rushing). The fact that he had two games over 400 yards passing (week 12 – 448 passing yards / 2 TDs and week 17 – 450 passing yards / 3 TDs) puts him in rare company in the NFL. If he can play the full season without getting hurt, he will represent outstanding value in 2005. Jason Wood - Bulger finished last season with almost 4,000 yards passing and 24 total touchdowns in only 14 games played. On a fantasy points per game basis, Bulger finished 4th last year, and plays on a team as committed to throwing the ball as any in the league. With a cadre of able receivers, an aging Marshall Faulk, a defense that should have trouble stopping anyone, and a bolstered offensive line; Bulger is one of the safer picks at the QB position this year.
Andy Hicks - Conservative offensive coordinator Paul Hackett departs, while Mike Heimerdinger arrives to the Jets from Tennessee. Heimerdinger transformed Tennessee from a running offense into a wide receiver driven offense that used a much more balanced running game. Curtis Martin will provide the solid running game, Laveranues Coles returns from the Redskins and as Pennington is one of most accurate quarterbacks in the league, more opportunities equals a lot more fantasy points for one of the best young QBs in the game. "Couch Potato" - After five seasons and three as a starter (36 starts), Pennington should just now be entering his prime. His career stats so far - 66% completion pct, 7.4 yards/attempt, 53 TDs vs 27 INTs, give a pretty good indication of his abilities. Now, if he could put a full season together with enough pass attempts, look out. The things keeping him from putting up very good season totals so far have been injuries and a conservative offensive coordinator. Hopefully the injuries are behind him, and OC Paul Hackett has been replaced with Mike Heimerdinger, former OC of Tennessee. Last year the Jets passed 437 times while the Titans passed 587 times, and Heimerdinger has indicated a more wide-open attack can be expected. In addition, Laveranues Coles and Doug Jolley have been added to help bolster the passing game. I project 3,600-24-12 passing and 100-2 running assuming 500 pass attempts, putting Pennington at about 286 fantasy points, ADP74 and QB10.
"Bagger" - Favre was the sixth ranked QB in 2004 and by most accounts had a very poor year for him. In 2005 he is being taken as the ninth QB taken in the draft. I expect Favre to bounce back in 2005 and be a top five QB again. Despite missing some playing time (although not any starts) in 2004, Favre still threw for over 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. Green Bay as a team threw for an additional 500 yards and six touchdowns. I expect Favre to miss less time in 2005 and much of that additional production to come back to his stats. With Walker and Driver as a solid 1-2 punch Favre represents great value in 2005 drafts.
Ron White - Harrington will be a risk with the experienced Jeff Garcia looking over his shoulder. The reward may very well outweigh the risk in Harrington’s fourth season. The Lions’ offense will be a force to reckon with, and defenses will be challenged with mismatches. If new offensive coordinator Ted Tollner can exploit defenses, and if the key players can remain healthy, Harrington could be in for a huge season. Although Harrington has been surrounded with talent the last several years, those players have battled injury. Talent looks great on paper, but if they can’t get that talent on the field it doesn’t matter whom the quarterback is.
"Fullback Fro" - The former #1 pick of the 2003 Draft, Carson Palmer is entering his third season and his second as Cincinnati’s starting QB. After sitting behind John Kitna his rookie year, Palmer had the keys to the Cincinnati offense given to him his second year and gained valuable experience which in turn lead to increased confidence and productivity as the season went on. After a slow start while he learned the offense and what it takes to be a pro, Carson really came on at the end of the season. In his last four games, he averaged 250y/2.75td/22.9 FPG and this against top tier Defenses. Cincinnati is returning all 11 offensive starters this year. With all the talent in the world and a multitude of weapons at his disposal, Carson could easily breakout into a top five QB, and right now you can get him as the 10th/11th QB taken in round 7/8 of a 12 team draft.
"EBF" - Despite being a rookie and only playing in 14 games, Ben Roethlisberger finished last season as the #21 overall fantasy QB. He should be much improved now that he has a year of experience under his belt. He should also get more passing opportunities as the Steelers continue to gain confidence in his skills. Possessing the abilities of an elite fantasy quarterback, Roethlisberger is a virtual lock to outperform his draft position in 2005.
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