Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players
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| Introduction • QB: [under] [over] • RB: [under] [over] • WR: [under] [over] • TE: [under] [over] | |||||||||||||||||||
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Undervalued QBs
Cecil Lammey - Brooks can be frustrating at times. His interception totaled doubled from what it was in 2003. However, he should rank higher than a QB13 in 2005. Brooks is a fairly consistent QB and had only one game where he threw no TD passes. He also is a threat to run and can make plays with his feet. He only had 4 games of less than 200 yards passing in 2004. Brooks also has some great maturing weapons around him. Couple that with a healthy Deuce McAllister and it means great things for anyone who drafts Brooks. Aaron Rudnicki - In his 4 full years as a starting QB, Aaron Brooks has thrown for 3500+ yards and 20+ TDs each year and has NEVER finished lower than #8 among fantasy QBs. The Saints have a very talented group of weapons surrounding him, and have also upgraded their offensive line with the best tackle in the draft. New offensive coordinator Mike Sheppard plans to set up the pass with the run, which should lead to a more consistent offense and increased opportunities for big plays via play-action. Mark Wimer - Brooks threw the ball as much as ever last season (309/542 for 3810 yards, 21 TDs and 16 interceptions) and also added his customary ~200 yards rushing and ~2-4 rushing scores (58/173/4 rushing last year). His passing TDs did drop off from the previous 3 years (26, 27, and 24 respectively), but that looks more like an anomaly than a trend. He can and probably will get back into the mid-20s range with his passing TDs – Brooks is a lock to land in the middle of the top ten fantasy QBs and could possibly crack top five status. He’s not a marginal QB1 – he’s a solid QB1. Jason Wood - Fantasy games are won and lost on stats accumulation, not on whether a QB wins or loses on Sundays. It’s that disparity which explains why Brooks is perennially undervalued on draft day. As a real NFL starter, he’s rightfully not considered among the league’s elite. But don’t let that cloud your judgment; he’s a fantasy stud. In the last four seasons, Brooks has finished no worse than 8th, thrown for no less than 3,500 yards, and delivered no fewer than 25 total touchdowns. Bank on those numbers again in 2005.
Mike Anderson - Kurt Warner steps into the perfect situation in Arizona to get back on track. Denny Green turned Jim McMahon, Randall Cunningham, and Jeff George into Pro-Bowl/Playoff caliber QBs after they were presumed dead. Green has added his prototypical type RB in JJ Arrington via the draft, Anquan Boldin is a record setting WR, and Larry Fitzgerald is touted as one of the greatest prospects to come out of the draft in years. With an average draft position of 11.01, Warner is well undervalued for a QB entirely capable of leading the Cardinals deep into the playoffs while putting up Pro-Bowl numbers. Andy Hicks - Kurt Warner is being drafted as the 23rd QB off the board in around the 12th round. This is almost a gift. With the addition of J.J. Arrington, 3 talented receivers in Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald and Bryant Johnson, a much improved defense and a potentially solid offensive line, Arizona are poised to be one of the breakout offenses of 2005. Some may still get the jitters about Warner’s injury and confidence problems of the last few years, but the reward is high and the risk low this year for fantasy owners. You can afford to draft him as your 2nd or 3rd choice, but don’t be shocked if you are inserting him into your starting line up early in the season. Marc Levin - All the pieces are in place for Kurt Warner to win comeback player of the year. I’m not kidding. If Drew Brees could win the honor after beating out 4th overall pick Philip Rivers to go on to a Pro Bowl season with a run-oriented coach and with no decent wide receiver options, what could a former Pro Bowl quarterback who manned St Louis’ greatest show on turf do with pass-oriented coach Dennis Green, receivers like Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, and decent pass catching backs like JJ Arrington and Marcel Shipp? As the QB23, Warner is cheaply acquired in the 11th or 12th round. If you believe, like we do at Footballguys, that the Cardinals are going to place two receivers in the top-24 fantasy receivers, how can you go wrong with Warner that late? If he stays on two feet all year, I would not be surprised to see a revitalized Warner finish in the top-12 from the QB spot this year. Maurile Tremblay - For a few years when he was leading the Rams’ potent passing attack, Kurt Warner was as good a QB as this league had seen in a while. He made quick decisions, delivered the ball on time, and was exceptionally accurate. His skills have declined sharply since then, possibly due to an injured thumb, so I consider him a great bargain pick not so much on his own merits, but because of the offensive talent around him and the system he’ll be playing in. Warner has a trio of extremely talented wide receivers to throw to in Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, and Bryant Johnson. Moreover, the running game led by J.J. Arrington, hasn’t looked very strong so far in the preseason, so the Cardinals may be relying on the passing game quite a big. Many pass attempts plus extraordinarily talented receivers could add up to some big fantasy numbers.
Maurile Tremblay - Harrington performed pretty poorly in each of his first three seasons. But he has the physical tools to become an upper-tier NFL QB and this year he has the weapons around him as well. Roy Williams, Charles Rogers, and Mike Williams comprise the most athletically talented trio of WRs in the league; and Kevin Johnson leads a rushing attack that will provide balance. Harrington can be had rather cheaply right now, and his upside potential makes him a bargain. What has sold me on him recently is that he’s been outperforming Jeff Garcia in training camp and in the preseason games. David Yudkin - If you look at the Lions offensive roster and the numbers many are predicting them to generate this year, it’s hard to fathom Harrington ranking as the #21 QB unless he gets hurt or benched. This will likely be Harrington’s last chance to prove himself as a QB, and he certainly has the best surrounding talent than at any point in his career. Harrington ranked 17th last year, and the #21 QB last year put up 2,621 passing yards and 17 TD. Why he is going later than he ranked last year with the amount of talent Detroit has on offense is a mystery.
Cecil Lammey - Sure, Air McNair had a rough 2004. But this is a guy that is just a year removed from an MVP season. For 3 straight seasons from 2001-2003 Steve McNair ranked as the #7 fantasy QB. Ah, how quickly some forget. Let McNair fly under the radar during your draft and you will be laughing all the way to the bank in 2005. Sure, he’s lost Derrick Mason, but Drew Bennett and Tennessee’s young WR corps is more than up to the task. Add in the fact that the Titans defense is less than stellar, and you have a recipe for playing from behind which means lots of “Air” in McNair. Norm Chow has also installed an offense that is best suited for a QB like McNair. While not the threat he used to be, Steve can still get up and run for some scores too. David Yudkin - McNair’s stock has taken a hit this year due to injury and age concerns, but he seems to be a lot healthier than in previous seasons. Up until last year, he’s been dinged up quite a bit but has gutted it out and stayed in the lineup. McNair has ranked 5th, 4th, 12th, 15th, 7th, 7th, and 7th prior to his injury last year, working with different systems and personnel over that timeframe. Even with a new offensive coordinator and a lack of proven targets to throw to, Tennessee should be mediocre on defense and the Titans should be playing catch up quite a bit.
Andy Hicks - Chad Pennington is currently being drafted in the 9th round. This is incredible value. Old favorite Laveranues Coles replaces the disappointing Santana Moss, Doug Jolley replaces the ineffective Anthony Becht and most importantly Mike Heimerdinger replaces Paul Hackett as offensive coordinator. Given that the Jets passed an incredibly low 437 times last season, 4th lowest in the NFL, improvement must be expected. A more balanced offense will play to Pennington’s strengths and allow him to develop into a borderline fantasy starter. Chris Smith - There was some concern in regards to Chad Pennington’s shoulder during training camp but he has looked sharp throwing the football and with the new aggressive approach on offense this season, he should exceed his draft slot (103) this season. It is nice to find a quarterback capable of starting for your roster in the ninth round.
Aaron Rudnicki - Since joining the Broncos in 2003, Plummer has been one of the most productive fantasy QBs in the game when healthy. Despite throwing 20 interceptions in 2004, he still wound up as the #5 ranked QB. The key to offensive success in Denver is the offensive line and the blocking schemes. The running game is always one of the best in the league, and the QBs get plenty of time in the pocket. The Broncos also boast one of the best starting WR tandems in the league with Rod Smith and the emerging Ashley Lelie. Lastly, the Broncos can expect quite a few shootouts this year when they face divisional opponents Oakland, Kansas City, and even San Diego. It is likely that the only way Plummer doesn’t finish as a top-10 QB is if he gets injured so he’s a great value as the 12th QB off the board. Chris Smith - Plummer had an exceptional season a year ago and finished fifth overall at the quarterback position in terms of fantasy production. Even with that success he hasn’t received respect from fantasy owners as his current draft slot indicates (81st overall – 13th best quarterback). He has his top two receivers returning, an emerging talent in Darius Watts and Jerry Rice has been brought in to add depth. He will exceed his draft position and could finish top five once again in 2005.
Maurile Tremblay - Even with two of the more talented RBs in the league, the Rams will have a high ratio of pass attempts to rush attempts. Mike Martz loves to put the ball in the air, and QB Marc Bulger has an exceptional array of targets to throw to. Kevin Curtis is an explosive third WR who compliments Holt and Bruce nicely, and both Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson have the ability to turn screen passes into big plays. If Bulger plays sixteen games this year, he should have 500+ attempts at about 8 yards per attempt – which is a lot of yards.
Mike Anderson - Kerry Collins is coming off of a 3,500 yard passing season in just 14 games. That projects out to almost 4,000 yards in a full 16 game season. With the impending retirement of Rich Gannon, Collins is solely at the helm of a team that lost nothing on offense, and added all-world Randy Moss, and potential big time RB Lamont Jordan. Between Randy Moss and Jerry Porter, the Raiders arguably boast the most dangerous tandem in the game. With an average draft position of 4.8, Collins will easily finish in the top 5 of all QBs by season’s end.
Marc Levin - As usual, there are many value plays at QB, but Brian Griese in the late 10th round is one of the best. He was the 13th best QB in fantasy points per game in 2004 and he plays for a coach in Jon Gruden who loves to throw. It is reasonable to expect Griese’s average of nearly 2 TDs per game to continue in 2005. Best of all, he has little competition for the start and an even better receiving corps with the addition of Ike Hilliard and pass-catching rookie TE Alex Smith to go along with last year’s super-rookie Michael Clayton and veteran speedster Joey Galloway.
Jason Wood - The astute fantasy leaguer realizes that Hasselbeck’s 2004 output was much closer to his 2003 output than commonly perceived. On a fantasy points-per-game basis, he averaged 18.4 PPG versus 19.1 the prior year. Only his two missed games and the overall productivity at his position lowered his full season ranking. This year, he’s got his main weapons back (DJax, Engram, S. Alexander), TE Jerramy Stevens looks like a new man, LT Walter Jones was in camp on time, and they added veteran WRs Jerome Pathon and Joe Jurevicius. All those weapons and a familiarity with the offense will equate to a top six or seven fantasy performance, count on it.
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