As a rookie entrant into Lenny and Emil's "World Championship of Fantasy Football" (WCOFF), I recognize that I am going up against the true fantasy football sharks, most of whom are no doubt Footballguys subscribers! The WCOFF can boast of being the current undisputed king of fantasy football contests, and attracts a powerhouse field of participants to its somewhat quirky format:

• 12 team leagues
• league champions and some runner-ups qualify for the big prize "playoffs"
• 20 round live draft
• $1,000 free agent spending money for use in bidding during the season

• 72 Running Backs gone (eg every starter and backup, and all the obvious third stringers with potential!)
• 72 Wide Receivers gone (both starters for almost every team, obvious third WR's)
• 36 Quarterbacks (all starters, some backups)
• 24 Tight Ends (all the starters with any kind of track record or upside)
• 12 Kickers (probably quite a few teams would take more than one kicker and play the weekly matchups)
• 24 defenses (meaning there are only 8 defense free agents...Oakland anyone? Anyone?)

Ah, but of course the wonderful things about the NFL is the surprises that show up every season. Players who were not even on the radar at the start of the season can wind up in prominent starring roles. So let's not write off the value of wise bidding so quickly, instead let's break down the numbers. To do this, I downloaded the full transaction files of each league from the 2004 WCOFF League Pages and built a database.

Total Accumulated Spending by Week during the 2004 WCOFF

Week	$0	$1+	$100+	$200+	$300+	$400+	$500+	$600+	$700+	$800+	$900+	$1,000
2	39%	62%	30%	18%	13%	9%	7%	4%	2%	1%	1%	0%
3	9%	92%	63%	46%	35%	26%	21%	15%	10%	7%	3%	0%
4	3%	97%	84%	72%	61%	51%	41%	31%	21%	15%	8%	0%
5	2%	98%	92%	84%	77%	67%	58%	46%	34%	25%	15%	1%
6	2%	98%	95%	89%	85%	78%	70%	60%	49%	36%	23%	1%
7	1%	99%	97%	94%	92%	86%	80%	72%	63%	50%	33%	1%
8	1%	98%	97%	96%	94%	89%	85%	79%	71%	60%	44%	3%
9	1%	99%	98%	97%	95%	93%	89%	83%	76%	67%	53%	4%
10	1%	98%	97%	97%	96%	94%	91%	87%	81%	71%	59%	7%
11	1%	99%	98%	97%	96%	95%	93%	89%	85%	80%	71%	30%

There were 672 teams in WCOFF '04, and by week five, over 58% of them had spent at least half their free agent dollars. It's worth remembering that weeks 1-11 represent the league games and if you're not in the top two at the end of that, you ain't playing for the big money in the playoffs. So it's not a surprise perhaps that owners are aggressively seeking to improve their roster from early on. Still, you can see that having most of your free agent money left in the middle part of the league schedule gives you some formidable buying power

Highest "Winning Bid" Players during the 2004 WCOFF

Player	Team	Week	Pickups	Average	Low	High	Stats*
Aaron Stecker	NO	3	31	$790	$507	$1000	351 Yds, 1 TD
Reuben Droughns	Den	6	17	$671	$457	$857	1,133 Yds, 7 TD's
Amos Zereoue	Oak	5	30	$617	$402	$926	406 Yds, 0 TD's
Kerry Collins	Oak	4	46	$473	$129	$995	3,160 Yds, 20 TD's
Marcus Robinson	Min	6	14	$461	$300	$701	388 Yds, 4 TD's
Mewelde Moore	Min	5	52	$435	$121	$807	592 Yds, 0 TD's
Sammy Morris	Mia	7	37	$413	$79	$851	514 Yds, 5 TD's
Leonard Henry	Mia	4	56	$381	$25	$916	105 Yds, 0 TD's
Derrick Blaylock	KC	3	36	$375	$6	$888	754 Yds, 9 TD's
Cedrick Wilson	Pit	2	16	$360	$100	$672	553 Yds, 2 TD's
Brad Hoover	Car	8	12	$337	$60	$667	136 Yds, 1 TD
Dorsey Levens	Phi	8	45	$321	$25	$951	401 Yds, 3 TD's
Anthony Thomas	Chi	9	11	$321	$79	$676	340 Yds, 2 TD's
Doug Gabriel	Oak	2	15	$311	$81	$703	477 Yds, 1 TD
ReShard Lee	Dal	3	11	$250	$28	$827	82 Yds, 0 TD's
Mike Alstott	TB	4	12	$237	$72	$503	303 Yds, 2 TD's
Eric Johnson	SF	2	28	$227	$79	$533	711 Yds, 1 TD
Jonathan Wells	Hou	5	24	$220	$1	$515	176 Yds, 3 TD's
Vinny Testaverde	Dal	3	13	$216	$52	$602	2,666 Yds, 15 TD's
Ki-Jana Carter	NO	3	48	$171	$1	$551	17 Yds, 0 TD's

* Stats reflect the games from the week of the pickup through week 16 (end of the WCOFF playoffs)

Given the variance from one league to another (eg Trent Green was available in week five in one league) the above table only looks at players picked up by a minimum of 10 different teams (leagues) in a given week. What's the first thing to notice? Of the 20 highest average winning bid pickups, 14 were RB's, 3 were WR, 2 were QB and 1 was a TE. Team Owners were quick to bid up the prices on Running Backs with a chance to move into a significant role. When Deuce McAllister went down with injury, both Stecker and Ki-Jana Carter were hot buys!

It's still volatile though: Leonard Henry was picked up by a team in each of the 56 WCOFF leagues during week four, but ranged in price from $25 to $916 (and mustered a total of 6 caries for 8 yards the rest of the way). Did some of these pickups make big differences? You would have to think there were some happy Droughns owners, but most of the high priced free agent buys were of little to no help.

Top "Bidding Frenzy" Players during the 2004 WCOFF

Player	Team	Week	Pickups	Average	Low	High
Leonard Henry	Mia	4	56	$381	$25	$916
Mewelde Moore	Min	5	52	$435	$121	$807
Derick Armstrong	Hou	6	50	$105	$1	$310
Ki-Jana Carter	NO	3	48	$171	$1	$551
T.J. Houshmandzadeh	Cin	4	48	$143	$12	$413
Kerry Collins	Oak	4	46	$473	$129	$995
Curtis Conway	SF	3	46	$163	$10	$501
Dorsey Levens	Phi	8	45	$321	$25	$951
Wayne Chrebet	NYA	6	45	$70	$1	$212
Ronald Curry	Oak	3	44	$126	$1	$350
ReShard Lee	Buf	2	44	$121	$2	$700
Justin Griffith	Atl	3	44	$94	$1	$427
Ben Roethlisberger	Pit	3	42	$105	$6	$336
Tai Streets	Det	2	41	$171	$10	$703
Az-zahir Hakim	NO	2	41	$156	$5	$928
Tim Carter	NYN	3	41	$100	$1	$328
George Wrighster	Jac	4	41	$31	$1	$162
Shaun McDonald	StL	8	40	$29	$1	$177
Brad Hoover	Car	7	39	$59	$1	$353
Reuben Droughns	Cle	5	38	$81	$1	$496
Sammy Morris	Mia	7	37	$413	$79	$851
Jabar Gaffney	Hou	7	37	$40	$1	$125
Derrick Blaylock	NYA	3	36	$375	$6	$888
Reche Caldwell	SD	2	36	$161	$16	$512
Jerry Rice	Den	7	36	$134	$1	$1000
Shawn Bryson	Det	4	36	$110	$1	$425
Shad Meier	NO	5	36	$26	$1	$233
Mike Cloud	NYN	9	35	$50	$1	$177
Jerome Pathon	Sea	7	35	$45	$1	$400
Clarence Moore	Bal	11	34	$116	$1	$572
Verron Haynes	Pit	5	34	$88	$1	$317
Eric Parker	SD	7	32	$142	$12	$397
Kurt Warner	Ari	3	32	$132	$3	$504
Aaron Stecker	NO	3	31	$790	$507	$1000
Randy Hymes	Bal	4	31	$164	$2	$456
Ken Dilger	TB	10	31	$27	$1	$150

I know what you're thinking -- "someone bid $1,000 for Jerry Rice??"

The breakdown by position shows 16 WR's, 14 RB's, 3 QB's and 3 TE's who were picked up by 31+ teams in a given week (note that Droughns was picked up by 38 teams prior to the week five game at an $81 average compared to 17 teams in week six at $671). Still while it's clear that the prices are all over the map for even a hotly contested player, the bigger issue is are there spending patterns that were more conducive to success than others last year.

Let's look at whether bidding pattern differences can be detected between the WCOFF winners and losers:

Average Spending by Week during the 2004 WCOFF

Team Rank	Week 2	Week 3	Week 4	Week 5	Week 6	Week 7	Week 8	Week 9	Week 10	Week 11
ALL	$91	$168	$163	$126	$91	$84	$58	$39	$30	$42
Top 15	$38	$145	$228	$60	$157	$89	$89	$41	$17	$96
Top 78*	$76	$213	$172	$131	$108	$59	$53	$37	$24	$94
79 to 672	$93	$162	$162	$125	$89	$87	$58	$40	$30	$35

* 78 teams qualified for the 'big prize' playoffs

Analysis: the most notable point from this table is that the ultimate playoff prize winning teams spent little in week two compared to the non-playoff teams, but notably more in weeks four and six (to catch up in overall accumulated spending) and at the tail end of the season. Clearly there are some cause and effect actions here: teams off to good starts may feel less urgency to take risks on free agent players (you do have to drop a player from your current roster after all), and nearing the end of the season, team owners that feel they are out of it will lose interest and not be active in buying players.

Another important point is that the 'correct' bidding strategy in a given year will vary -- if the WCOFF was around when Kurt Warner had his breakout year, it's likely that spending you whole wad to get him in week two would have been a very wise move!

Highest Winning Bid Paid during the 2004 WCOFF

Team Rank	Max Paid	$200+	$300+	$400+	$500+	$600+	$700+	$800+	$900+
Top 15	$490	100%	87%	67%	53%	27%	20%	7%	0%
Top 78	$430	97%	73%	50%	33%	18%	15%	5%	3%
79 to 672	$413	90%	72%	48%	31%	19%	10%	6%	3%

Interestingly the most successful teams actually did pay out more for their highest priced pickup, but did so judiciously: one top fifteen finisher paid out $800, and two others paid $726 and $722 respectively, but none were up in the bidding stratosphere. Allowing some wiggle room for later moves seems important, but at the same time the best teams were not afraid to put in higher bids, with 53% paying $500+ for a player compared to only 33% of non-playoff teams.

What to learn from this

So ultimately, here's what we know about the best teams in WCOFF 2004:

- Spent less than average in the early weeks, but more than average as the season progressed
- Were more likely to buy a player during the season in the $300-$700 range, but less likely to spend $801+
- Spent aggressively in the last week of the 'regular season' to set themselves up for strong league championship games, and playoff round weeks
- Had a higher "hit percentage" with their pickups

That last point of course seems obvious...outbid your competition for players who produce and you will help yourself, outbid your competition for players who are busts and it might hurt you.

Clearly how you draft is first and foremost the key to success in the WCOFF, followed by smart bench/start decisions on a weekly basis. The bidding wars may have only a mild impact in a given season, although some years a true star the equal of a first round pick might emerge from the free agent "slush pile".

One strategy tip I'd offer is this: when you find out who the other players are in your league, you might want to check their bidding records from the prior seasons if they are WCOFF veterans -- just as with poker, the more you know about your opponent's habits, the better off you are likely to be!