Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players
|
|
Login / Signup |
|
| Intro • Complete Draft • Rosters • Round: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 - 6 - 7 - 8 - 9 - 10 - 11 - 12 - 13 - 14 - 15 - 16 - 17 - 18 - 19 - 20 - 21 - 22 | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Survivor I - Raidergil Commentary NOTE: this draft was completed on 7/24
Positives - When healthy Priest Holmes is unquestionably the number 1 player in fantasy football. Over the past 4 years Holmes has averaged 22.6 points per game finishing those seasons as the #2, 1, 1 and 12 fantasy running back in overall points – and of course last year’s total was gained in a mere 8 games. In the past 3 seasons alone Holmes has scored a ridiculous 66 TDs, 12 more than second place Shaun Alexander. Holmes is the centerpiece of a Kansas City offense that finished second only to Indianapolis in offensive TDs scored. With 10 time Pro Bowl OG Will Shields deciding to return for another year the Chiefs will again possess the best offensive line in football. Negatives - Obviously the biggest negative is the injury risk. Holmes missed the second half of last year with strained knee ligaments. He has also had 2 previous knee injuries and torn hip muscles that cut his 2002 short. He is 32 and, although he hasn’t carried the same load as other’s his age, he is still reaching the age where a sudden drop off can occur. Holmes was used much less in the passing game last year only catching 19 balls after averaging 68 per season in the previous 3 years. Backup Larry Johnson had some huge games finishing out last year and could definitely be used more often in an attempt to keep Priest healthy. Draft Strategy - I wrestled with the decision whether to take the most reliable stud in fantasy, Shaun Alexander, or the most explosive in Holmes. I decided since I was basically playing with house money in this contest to go for broke. Nothing against the 14-16 TD’s you are assured out of Alexander, but at number 2 overall Priest still offers upside. Last year was Alexander’s best at 307 points, meanwhile in each of the previous 2 seasons, Holmes scored 373 and was on pace for 396 last year. That is just too much potential for me to pass up.
Positives - Martin is a workhorse back who has averaged over 1300 rushing yards, 45 receptions and 9 touchdowns per season for his 10 year career. Martin was the #4 fantasy RB playing in a very conservative offense. Mike Heimerdinger was brought in from Tennessee as offensive coordinator to open up the offense. While this may lessen Martin’s carries, it may also open more running lanes and should provide Martin with ample scoring opportunities. Negatives - Martin is another year older and coming off a 371 carry year. Having carried a great deal over his career one would assume the toll on his body will start to show effect on his performance. The Jets have many questions on offense from a new system to Chad Pennington’s shoulder to the loss of Kareem McKenzie & Anthony Becht on the offensive line. Additionally, Martin will face Buffalo & New England, 2 of the best defenses in football, a total of 4 times – and 2 more games against Miami will not be a piece of cake either. Draft Strategy - Entering the draft I planned to take Holmes & Martin with my first 2 picks. After taking Holmes I needed a reliable RB2 and Martin fits that bill perfectly. I passed over Ahman Green here due to his injury history and offensive line losses. Martin plays through injury and has only missed 4 games in his career. The Jets are a run first team that should contest for the AFC East division title meaning Martin will again be the focal point of the offense and see a lot of carries and red zone chances.
Positives - The #3 ranked fantasy wide receiver last year who has been in the top 10 in 4 of his 5 years with New Orleans. His average season in that span is 87 receptions for 1258 yards and 9 touchdowns. Horn has great chemistry with quarterback Aaron Brooks and has caught 21 TDs the past 2 years. Unlike his WR counterpart, Donte Stallworth, Horn is tough and plays through injuries having only missed 1 game since 1997. A porous Saints defense forces the offense to throw often while playing catch up. Negatives - QB Aaron Brooks is talented but terribly erratic killing many drives and offensive momentum. There is talk of implementing a new offensive game plan featuring more Deuce McAllister. While it’s a good move for the team, it may reduce the Saints passing attempts. Horn will be 33 this year and while he doesn’t miss games he has had a history of knee problems. There is also the possibility that talented but oft injured Donte Stallworth could finally play a full season thus reducing Brooks’ reliance on Horn. Draft Strategy - In the first 3 rounds I wanted to secure 2 RBs and a top tier WR. After Horn I see a drop-off to the next tier with Walker’s holdout uncertainty, Wayne being a #2 on his team etc. Having to start 3 WRs I wanted a stud to build around. However, also available at this time was Rudi Johnson who was the #8 ranked RB last year. With a flex starter and Priest’s injury questions Rudi would have been great insurance, especially since RB starters will be thin when the draft comes back to me. I waiver before finally deciding on Horn but as soon as I make the selection my gut gives me the feeling I’ve made a mistake.
Positives - Number 1 wide receiver for one of the best quarterbacks in football. Broke out last year serving as Viking’s #1 wide receiver during Randy Moss’ absence. Earned Culpepper’s trust and had a couple big games after Moss’ return. Veteran #2 & 3 WRs, a game breaking rookie WR and a downfield threat at tight end will open the field for Burleson. Negatives - How will Burleson handle being the number 1 WR without Randy Moss on the other side of the field? Marcus Robinson and Travis Taylor provide more size as red zone targets. The Vikings have talked about becoming a more run-oriented team. The Vikings are also greatly improved on defense which should keep the offense from needing to play catch-up as often and possibly getting into less shootouts. Draft Strategy - I was hoping to grab Anquan Boldin who I think has a better shot at finishing in the top 10 but he went at 4.10. Still, Burleson finished #16 last year and has a decent shot at finishing top 10 if he continues to improve. Others available here were Laveranues Coles, who has concerns with his toe and his QB’s shoulder, and Isaac Bruce, who tailed off in the second half last year and may lose catches to Kevin Curtis. Compared with those 2 I like Burleson’s upside better.
Positives - When healthy (yikes, I led off 2 of my running back analysis like this), Taylor is one of the most explosive backs in football. Had shed his ‘Fragile Fred’ tag over the past couple years. While quarterback Byron Leftwich continues to grow into the position, the Jaguars remain a run first team with one of the best offensive lines in football. Leftwich should continue to improve and allow for the offense to open up more. Negatives - Taylor had off-season knee surgery from which he has yet to fully recover. At this time it is unknown how much Taylor will practice in camp let alone whether or not he will be ready for the season opener. Even when he does return there will be questions as to how effective he’ll be on the knee. When he does return there is a good possibility Taylor will not be the goalline back as the Jags have FB Greg Jones who could fill that role. As it is the Jags only had 6 rushing touchdowns last year. Taylor also is not used to a great extent in the passing game. Draft Strategy - If I truly wanted the Priest/LJ combo I’d have to pick Larry Johnson here - too early in my opinion for what would essentially be my RB4. Also strongly considered Marc Bulger here but I was still regretting passing on Rudi Johnson in round 3 and wanted to get a 3rd starting running back. Taylor was the last RB available who, provided he’s healthy, would be the unquestioned starter on his team. Others available such as Thomas Jones, Duce Staley & Chris Brown will all be involved in some form of RBBC. As the 27th RB off the board Taylor still gives me top 15 potential.
Positives - Highly touted rookie lived up to his billing with a strong rookie year going over 1000 yards receiving with 8 touchdowns. Fitzgerald has size, runs great routes & has exceptional hands. If QB Kurt Warner can stay upright he is an improvement over last year’s starter Josh McCown. A healthy Anquan Boldin on the other side will likely draw top coverage leaving Fitzgerald to work against the defense’s #2 cornerback. Coach Dennis Green looks upon Fitzgerald like a son and will make sure he is successful. Negatives - Does Kurt Warner have anything left? Recently he has looked like a shell of the former 4000-yard passer he was. The presence of Anquan Boldin will limit Fitzgerald’s upside. While Boldin will draw coverages he will also draw targets – he had 2 less targets than Fitzgerald despite playing in only 10 games. Draft Strategy - I wanted to fill out my core of starters thus was looking for my WR3. I was waiting for Chris Chambers but once again BassNBrew stole my pick. There weren’t many true #1 WRs left on the board so I went with the WR I felt had the most potential to at least finish in the top 20. While I personally think Boldin is the better option of the 2, I see no reason both receivers can’t go over 1000 yards this year.
Positives - Crumpler has been a top 10 tight end the past 3 years, the last 2 finishing in the top 5. His receptions and yards have improved every year of his career. He is the leading receiver on his team and a great downfield threat averaging 16.1 yards per reception last year. With a questionable receiving staff Crumpler will continue to be relied upon heavily by Michael Vick. Negatives - The Falcons are one of the most successful rushing teams in the league thus reducing their need to rely less on the pass. Quarterback Michael Vick, while extremely talented, is still a very erratic passer who struggles with accuracy problems. Compared to other top 5 tight ends, Crumpler has a very low number of receptions per year. Draft Strategy - In a point per reception league I preferred to wait for Randy McMichael but didn’t want to deal with any possible conduct suspensions and with Chambers, Booker and Boston at wide out, McMichael may see fewer opportunities this year. Considered Plummer here but felt there was a bigger drop-off among available tight ends than there was at quarterback. Crumpler gives me an advantage at the TE spot and if he sees more receptions could definitely approach top 3 status.
Positives - Great speed makes him a big play threat any time he catches the ball. Not afraid to go across the middle. Showed his potential 2 years ago finishing as the number 8 fantasy wide receiver. Highly limited last year by Paul Hackett’s ultra conservative Jets offense. Negatives - While the Jets were conservative the Redskins were just inept on offense. Should starter Patrick Ramsey falter and be replaced by Mark Brunell, Moss’ downfield ability is lessened by Brunell’s weak arm. WR David Patten as the other starter won’t scare any defenses. Moss’ best year came as the #2 WR alongside Laveranues Coles. Without Coles last year, Moss’ catches dropped by 29 and his touchdowns were cut in half. Were last year’s numbers more indicative of the Jets offense or Moss’ ability as a team’s #1 receiver? Draft Strategy - I was really hoping Hasselbeck would make it to me here but for the 3rd time my nemesis BassNBrew got my guy. Man, he is really starting to tick me off. I then turned my attention to best available wide receiver that I hope will help at my flex position. While the Redskins have their problems on offense I think Ramsey’s stronger arm will allow them to attack more. Getting a #1 wide receiver at the end of round 8 presents very good value.
Positives - Tom Brady is a very consistent fantasy performer finishing 9th, 11th and 10th in QB rankings the past 3 years. He has thrown for 28 TDs 2 of the past 3 years. He has a solid group of wide receivers and tight ends at his disposal and is not overly reliant on any one. The losses on defense (Coach Crennel, Teddi Bruschi, Ted Johnson, Ty Law and a possible holdout by Richard Seymour) may weaken them a bit forcing the Patriots to throw more. Negatives - What effect will the departure of long-time coordinator Charlie Weiss have on Brady and the offense? Last year’s addition of Corey Dillon resulted in less reliance on the passing game as evidenced by 53 less pass attempts over the previous year. The Patriots rarely get into shootouts or play from behind further limiting their need to pass. Draft Strategy - As the last team without a starter I had to take Brady here. Compared to others ranked near him like Palmer and Brees, Brady offers the most consistency and least amount of questions. I usually hold out on taking a QB so I’m happy to get Brady. Besides I still feel he owes me and the rest of Raider Nation for that ‘fumble’.
Positives - Steve McNair is one of the toughest players in the NFL. Before last year McNair was a fixture in the top 10 rankings finishing 7th each of the previous 3 years. McNair adds to his value as a runner having averaged 3.5 rushing TDs per year over his career. A weak Titans defense will force McNair to throw often. Negatives - McNair has had a host of injuries over his career and they finally knocked him out last season. In fact there was even talk of retirement. Has he recovered and how much does he have left? McNair lost his favorite target in the offseason as Derrick Mason left for Baltimore. Although Drew Bennett had a huge year last year, will he be able to handle the #1 assignment? There are also questions surrounding the injury recoveries of WR Tyrone Calico and TE Ben Troupe. Draft Strategy - After drafting my starter late I felt I needed to get a top backup quarterback before the run on them started. I like the potential of Griese and Delhomme this year but hey both have the same bye week as Brady. If healthy (there’s that qualifier again), McNair is a proven top 10 QB. If he survives opening against Pittsburgh and Baltimore, the schedule becomes very favorable.
Positives - As the Jaguars #2 RB he would be in line for the most carries should Fred Taylor miss any time. Negatives - Toefield has had his own injury problems. He is not a great receiver out of the backfield which might open the door for rookie Alvin Pearman to work his way into the lineup. FB Greg Jones is the likely goalline back further reducing Toefield’s value. Draft Strategy - With RBs thinning I felt I needed to insure my investment/gamble on Fred Taylor. Hopefully this at least insures I have 3 starting running backs come week 1.
Positives - Blaylock played well as a starter last year in Priest Holmes’ absence accumulating 540 yards and 5 TDs. He is a quick back yet he shows good strength in a compact package. He also showed he could be a workhorse like Curtis Martin when he rushed the ball 33 times for 186 yards against the Saints last year. Will be the clear number 2 RB on the Jets this year and, if called upon, should be able to step right in and be productive. Negatives - Was unable to remain the Chiefs’ starter last year due to injury bringing into question whether he’d be able to consistently carry a full load if called upon. Although he was successful last year in Kansas City it is unknown whether that was due to the Chiefs’ system or Blaylock’s talent. Draft Strategy - Beautiful. I gambled and was able to get Priest’s backup. What? Blaylock’s not with the Chiefs anymore? Well, my gamble to wait until 6.11 to grab Larry Johnson did not pan out due to Marvin88 at 6.09 (thanks Marv, hope he doesn’t leave your bench all year). Thus, I decided to grab the backups for both my other RBs. As it turns out they were each the next selection at RB according to the Draft Dominator and I made them my picks in back to back rounds. Instead of gambling on other backups, I decided to grab my own backups and insure I have starters should injuries strike. I originally planned to draft 6 RBs but am not sure the value will be there to justify another one over a different position.
Positives - The Eagles finished 2003 as the #8 fantasy defense in points scored per game. Their young secondary has another year of experience. They resigned big free agents in Jeremiah Trotter and Hugh Douglas. They finished 2nd in sacks last year with the addition of Jevon Kearse. The return of ND Kalu on the other end will also help the Eagles sack numbers. They play 6 games against Drew Bledsoe, Eli Manning and Patrick Ramsey. Negatives - At draft time Corey Simon was a threat to holdout for a new contract after being designated the Eagles’ franchise player. The Eagles only ranked 22nd in turnovers last year. In the offseason the Eagles lost their top kickoff returner JR Reed. Draft Strategy - I grabbed the Eagles defense as the 8th off the board which I thought was fair value. If they can create more turnovers they could be a top 5 or 6 defense. Still, they have the talent to at least finish top 10. The 6 divisional games should give them plenty of opportunities for interceptions and sacks. In retrospect I probably could have held out another round and grabbed the Jets defense as better value.
Positives - Parker has very good speed, fastest receiver on team, and good hands. He came on in last 3 games of 2004 with 9 catches for 137 yards and 1 TD on 13 targets. This year he enters camp as the #2 WR on one of the highest scoring offenses in the league. The Chiefs’ #1 WR, Eddie Kennison, is 32 yrs old and has never really been a true number 1 possession type WR, rather more of a deep threat. Plus, with the release of Johnnie Morton, there is the opportunity for Parker to step into the starting lineup. Negatives - The Chiefs were very thin at WR last year and yet Parker was unable to contribute due to hamstring problems. There will be plenty of competition for Morton’s number 2 spot: Freddie Mitchell was brought in from Philadelphia and Marc Boerigter, who scored 8 times in 2002 is back from last year’s knee injury. Additionally, TE Kris Wilson, whom the Chiefs were high on during 2004’s camp before being lost with a broken leg, is back healthy. This adds yet another red zone option to the Chiefs offense and, unfortunately for Chiefs’ WRs, when it comes to red zone priority they are far down the list behind Priest Holmes & Tony Gonzalez. Draft Strategy - For what I think is the 5th time in this draft BassNBrew grabbed the guy I was targeting. Obviously, Bass is a true shark as he is thinking along same lines as me. This time it was Drew Bledsoe who I wanted. I think he should be able to exceed Vinny’s numbers from last year and would have been a nice addition to my QBBC strategy. I turned my attention back to WR and took a chance on Parker. At this point there were a lot of #3 WRs left and of the number 2s I think Parker offers the most upside in the KC offense.
Positives - Manning was able to get about half of a season under his belt last year and get used to the speed of the pro game. He showed marked improvement over the final 3 games completing 61% of his passes and throwing for 5 of his 6 TDs. Manning has a top rated RB & TE to rely on and take pressure off of him. The Giants also signed Plaxico Burress to come in and stretch the field. The Giants also beefed up their offensive line bringing in former Jet Kareem McKenzie. Negatives - Even with a strong final 3 games, Manning only finished the year completing 48% of his passes. He did not throw for over 200 yards in any game and was sacked the second most times in the league. Manning still has a lot to learn and unfortunately must do all his learning on the fly. Draft Strategy - Once I was left with Tom Brady as my starter I decided to employ a QBBC philosophy and thus was looking for a 3rd starter. I really wanted that person to be Bledsoe who has the potential to put up big numbers a few times during the year. Left with Manning or Rex Grossman, it was easy to choose Manning based on his lineage and the fact he’ll have more weapons at his disposal. I have now filled out depth at all key positions and can concentrate on filling out remainder of roster.
Positives - Tennessee has a great history of using the TE in the passing game and Kinney presents a nice target for his QBs. His size makes him an even nicer target in the red zone. He runs well for a big man and has reliable hands. With questions surrounding how well WR Bennett will perform as a #1 and the health of Tyrone Calico, the TEs may be used extensively in the pass game. Negatives - Young backup TE Ben Troupe showed promise last year and is more of a threat in the passing game. The Titans also drafted another TE who could cut into Kinney’s targets. Kinney’s size makes him an ideal blocking TE and he may be used more in that respect to protect McNair. Draft Strategy - Unfortunately, many of the tight ends I wanted to grab as a backup had the same bye as Alge Crumpler; therefore I took Kinney as the best option. At the very least he makes a nice bye week fill in for me. If Troupe’s foot injury lingers into the season Kinney may become a more integral part of the passing game. Regardless, he should be used as a red zone target throughout the year by Tennessee.
Positives - Stover is one of the most accurate kickers in the league connecting at over an 85% clip each of the last 6 years. The Ravens provide ample field goal opportunities and Stover converts. This has helped him finish in the top 10 in scoring 5 of the last 6 years. Kyle Boller should improve even more this year and the addition of Derrick Mason will certainly help the offense. Negatives - Stover does not have a very strong leg and thus the ravens use Wade Richey for FG attempts over 50 yards. This will cut down on possible bonus points for Stover. Draft Strategy - With starters at all other positions, and depth at the important ones, I decided to grab a top 5-7 kicker. Stover is an experienced kicker who consistently finishes in the top 10 at his position. His addition will give me solid, dependable points from the kicker position all year long. And now my starting lineup is complete.
Positives - When Steve McNair went down for the season Billy Volek was pressed into action and performed remarkably well – at least stat-wise (and what more is there in fantasy?). Volek passed for nearly 2500 yards and tossed 18 TDs. Volek showed a command of the Titan offense and connected with Drew Bennett as if they’d been playing together for years. With the beating McNair tends to take each year, there is a great chance Volek will see action. Negatives - Volek put up huge numbers last year but Tennessee had no choice but to throw on almost every play in those games. Should he see action this year its much more likely the Titans would be more conservative. The Titans will be running a new offense this year under Norm Chow which will probably change their approach on offense as well. Draft Strategy - With McNair as my second starter I felt I had to get Volek to insure I have a solid #2 QB (notice how I smartly collected backups to my starters – except for the most important one?) throughout the season. I can’t afford to lose McNair & be forced to rely on Eli Manning as my #2 QB. Should Volek be forced into action I will feel comfortable with a player who has proven he can put up big numbers.
Positives - Ferguson has all the tools to be a starting receiver. He’s been in the GB system for 4 years. The Packers are expected to be throwing quite a bit this year giving Ferguson opportunities to see the field in 3 WR sets. Negatives - Javon Walker & Donald Driver are one of the best WR combos in football meaning Ferguson will be a 3rd WR at best. Ferguson has had injury problems and was still recovering from post-concussion syndrome in the offseason. Draft Strategy - At draft time Javon Walker’s holdout was not looking positive, and although I fully expected it to be resolved, I figured I’d take a gamble with Ferguson as my 6th WR. If Walker’s holdout was to last or in case of injury to Walker or Driver, Ferguson would jump into a tremendous opportunity. As it is I would expect Ferguson to have a couple nice games during the year to jump into my top 3 for the week.
Positives - Jolley is a good receiving TE with good running ability after the catch. He will give Chad Pennington a nice, reliable target who can get downfield as well. Mike Heimerdinger used the TE a great deal in Tennessee and it is expected he will do so in NY as well. The Jets made a play for Jeb Putzier in free agency and when that fell through they traded their first round pick to Oakland for Jolley. This would seem to be a sign they have big plans for the TE position this year. Negatives - After Jolley’s nice rookie year he didn’t improve as was expected and eventually lost his starting job in Oakland. He’s only scored 5 times so not a big red zone target. With any Jet receivers there’s the possibility Pennington runs into more arm trouble. Draft Strategy - I like Jolley’s upside this year in New York but I couldn’t take him as my backup due to bye week conflicts. However, once I got to this point of the draft I felt he offered value over the other WRs left on the board. I expect he’ll be effective in the Jets offense. My hope is that combined with Crumpler these 2 will have some nice weeks together and give me another option at the flex position.
Positives - Hanson is a veteran who will be kicking in a dome with what should be an improved Lions offense this year. As Kevin Jones became a bigger factor in the second half of last year, the Lions and Hanson’s scoring rose. Hanson has a very strong leg and averages 2 FGs per year of over 50 yards. Negatives - Hanson hasn’t been a very accurate kicker though that has improved recently. Hanson has also had few scoring opportunities in past years with last year’s 16th ranking being his best recently. Draft Strategy - Expecting the Lions offense to continue its improvement, either through Harrington’s maturation or the insertion of Garcia, I grabbed Hanson as my backup kicker. I already have the consistency of Stover, now I am looking at Hanson to give me a shot at a couple big weeks with his strong leg.
Positives - Michael Strahan should be fully recovered from injury that cost him 8 games last year. Signed promising MLB Antonio Pierce away from Washington in offseason. LBs Barrett Green & Nick Greisen missed great deal of time in 2004 due to injury and are recovered. Each of the Giants kickoff returners brought back a kick for a TD last year. DC Tim Lewis preaches an attacking style that should force many turnovers. Negatives - Despite Strahan’s expected return to health, it will be questioned how much he has left in the tank. 2003 first round pick William Joseph continues to disappoint. The starting cornerbacks only have 13 interceptions over the past 4 years. Draft Strategy - Basically looking for a defense that didn’t share a bye week with the Eagles. If healthy the Giants have the potential to move into the 15-20 range of fantasy defenses. At the very least Michael Strahan should have a good couple games dropping Drew Bledsoe.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Forums |
News | Login
/ Signup | Contact
Us |