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Survivor I - Round 9 Commentary NOTE: this draft was completed on 7/24
Positives - Shelton was a scoring machine at Louisville, rushing for 20 touchdowns last year. He’s 6-3, 245 lbs and a perfect fit for the Carolina Panther offense. The Panther’s selected him in the second round and should give him every opportunity to see significant playing time early in the season with a chance of winning the starting job before the end of the year. His competition on the team is DeShaun Foster, who hasn’t had more than 113 rushes in a season, Stephen Davis, who may not be healthy at the start of the year, and Nick Goings, who has been returned to fullback. I like the odds of Shelton eventually becoming the primary ball carrier and goal line back with Foster playing a third down, change of pace role. With the success this offense has had running the ball in recent years, that could add up to a great season for Shelton. Negatives - If the versatile Foster has truly overcome his injuries, he could be difficult to displace from the starting job. If Davis can play, even on a limited basis, he’ll likely receive the short yardage and goal line work similar to Jerome Bettis, leaving little opportunity for Shelton to make an impact this season. Goings is also a wildcard, having proven he could handle the job during several starts last year. Shelton will also need to prove he can handle the various blocking assignments which can sometimes take a while for a rookie to master, possibly limiting his opportunities all season. Draft Strategy - I wanted to take one more RB with a chance of starting early in the season. Faulk, Bettis, and Duckett didn’t fit this criterion. I may have reached a bit for Shelton but feel the risk is warranted considering the value of the Carolina starting RB and the less than inspiring competition currently on the roster. With 3 RBs already on board, I don’t need Shelton to necessarily start early in the season. If this pick pans out, Shelton, along with Ronnie Brown, will compete to give me one of the highest scoring flex positions in the league. I know everyone could say that if their picks work out as expected; I just happen to like mine so far.
Positives - Tom Brady is a very consistent fantasy performer finishing 9th, 11th and 10th in QB rankings the past 3 years. He has thrown for 28 TDs 2 of the past 3 years. He has a solid group of wide receivers and tight ends at his disposal and is not overly reliant on any one. The losses on defense (Coach Crennel, Teddi Bruschi, Ted Johnson, Ty Law and a possible holdout by Richard Seymour) may weaken them a bit forcing the Patriots to throw more. Negatives - What effect will the departure of long-time coordinator Charlie Weiss have on Brady and the offense? Last year’s addition of Corey Dillon resulted in less reliance on the passing game as evidenced by 53 less pass attempts over the previous year. The Patriots rarely get into shootouts or play from behind further limiting their need to pass. Draft Strategy - As the last team without a starter I had to take Brady here. Compared to others ranked near him like Palmer and Brees, Brady offers the most consistency and least amount of questions. I usually hold out on taking a QB so I’m happy to get Brady. Besides I still feel he owes me and the rest of Raider Nation for that ‘fumble’.
Positives - Johnson caught 82 balls for 825 yards last year to ranked 4th in TE receptions and receiving yards. The current FBG projections show a 25% reduction in production from last year’s output to 2005, yet still leave Johnson ranked 7th in this format. These numbers add up to a very safe selection as the ninth TE off the board in the ninth round. Negatives - Johnson’s career has been plagued with injuries and he’s appears to have an allergic reaction to end zone paint. A rookie QB debuting in San Francisco can be argued as both a pro and con for Johnson, but there’s no arguing that the Niner’s offense in general will be very anemic. Draft Strategy - With Moss and Stokley disappearing just out of reach, I was reeling at this point. I desperately wanted to take a WR here, but didn’t see any value anywhere on the board. I took a couple of deep breaths and took stock of the situation. My sleeper QBs would be around for a while, but Eric Johnson was still sitting out there head and shoulders above his peers at the position.
Positives - Palmer finished strong toward the end of the season. He actually posted (2) - 3TD games and (1) - 4TD game last season. He performed well against some good DEFs last season and has a favorable schedule this year having (6) easy games against sub-par pass DEFs. He actually shed some weight in the off-season making him quicker and more mobile. He supposedly worked hard with his WRs in the off-season as well. With a good running game (Rudi Johnson) and an excellent core of WRs (including C. Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh) Palmer has the potential to put up top ten numbers this year. Negatives - He is still a young QB learning what life is like in the NFL. Also, with both Pittsburgh and Baltimore both in Cincinnati’s division, Palmer will have to face each of these teams very good DEFs twice. Draft Strategy - After grabbing Plummer in the 6th round, I thought it might be advantageous to pick another QB soon and hope that having two projected top 11 QBs would equate to a top five “combined” performance for the entire Survivor season. And, in fact, Palmer was the value pick at this stage in the draft. Plummer’s and Palmer’s SOS also seemed to fit together fairly well giving them a “combined” projected of (8) EASY weeks against weak pass DEFs.
Positives - Comments from FBG.com: With the departures of Cedrick Wilson and Curtis Conway, Brandon Lloyd is assured of being one of the team's starting receivers. For a 23 year old guy only playing his 3rd season, that is a lot of responsibility. Lloyd managed six touchdowns from only 43 receptions last year. He has a reputation for acrobatic catches. Combine that with his self confidence and solid route running, and he is primed for a big season. Negatives - Comments from FBG.com: Too flashy for his own good, Brandon Lloyd has come under criticism from his own team mates for running his mouth and his flamboyancy rubs some the wrong way. Not the biggest guy, Lloyd missed three games last season with various niggling injuries (a groin strain, a hip pointer, and a foot injury). He lacks top end speed and doesn’t do much with the ball in his hands. Plagued by inconsistency he has yet to register a 100 yard game and only once caught more than five balls in a game. Draft Strategy - n/a
Positives - Well, what can you say about the Pats defense? A huge piece of the puzzle that has brought multiple championships in the past few years, the Pats defense consistently puts up fantasy points. They finished 2nd last year in fantasy points even though they were not as dominant as in years past. The New England weather is an ally to this defense, and can cause many low scoring games later in the season. Negatives - The Pats have had some big personnel losses over the off-season. Ty Law was released and LB Teddy Bruschi retired. Never mind the fact that their defensive coordinator moved on to coach another team. Draft Strategy - What it comes down to is that I didn’t like anything else on the board at this time. I could have taken another WR here, or perhaps a 2nd QB, but the value just didn’t seem to be there. If Eric Johnson wasn’t taken a few picks earlier I would have taken him, but after he was taken I knew I was going to wait until late to grab a couple TEs.
Positives - He's a possession receiver, and has the size to excel in the red zone. Projecting about 70 receptions, almost 1000yds, and a half-dozen or so TDs, and Johnson becomes a nice addition to the roster. If he and Glenn can avoid the injury bug, and throw in Jones and Bledsoe in the backfield, there could be some good numbers popping up in the Lone Star State. Negatives - Although it didn't seem to appear last year, his "me first" attitude is likely still there, just under the surface. If he can be a team player, and avoid "Leon", I'll be happy. Bledsoe joins the cast in Dallas, and like Johnson, is near the end of his career. Does Bledsoe still have enough left in the tank? Time will tell. Johnson also needs a healthy Glenn to keep the defense honest. Draft Strategy - I also hate the Cowpies, so this was another bitter pill to swallow. :D Alas, one can't always draft based on team alliances, but on what the player brings to the table. Johnson may no longer be the stud of years gone by, but he's still good enough to be a stud at least a few games out of the year, and that should be enough in this best-ball format.
Positives - Colbert was a fantasy surprise last year stepping in for the injured Steve Smith and putting up top-40 numbers with over 750 yards and 5 TDs playing opposite Muhsin Muhammad. With Muhammad now in Chicago, Colbert should easily reach 1,000 yards and has a shot at 10 TDs as the opposing defense will roll top coverage to Smith’s side. Jake Delhomme has established himself as a QB that can deliver. Negatives - Colbert is a second year receiver, and a strong rookie performance does not guarantee a strong sophomore showing. Carolina will try to win with defense and running, as their backfield will not be missing their top three RBs this year. The addition of Freddie Jones at TE may also cut into the WR’s numbers. Draft Strategy - All things considered, Colbert will most likely have improved numbers over last year. At this point I was in a “shore up the WR corps” mode, and Colbert represented great value with the potential for 1,300 yards and 10 TDs and a top 20 or 15 finish.
Positives - Keenan McCardell is a proven veteran. From 1996-2003, Keenan had at least 60 catches every season and he finished in the top 25 6 times. He is the #1 WR on the Chargers roster and a rejuvenated Drew Brees offers the opportunity to return to the top 25. After holding out with the Bucs last season, Keenan made 31 catches in only 7 games. With defenses keying on Antonio Gates more this season, look for McCardell and his 6’1” frame to get more attention in the red zone this season. Negatives - McCardell is 35 years old, and the chances of him putting up top 20#’s again are a stretch. San Diego moves the ball through LTII, he is their 1st and 2nd option. Gates set an NFL record last year for TDs by a TE. This leaves few options for the WRs to get their touches. Reche Caldwell, Eric Parker, and Vincent Jackson will all push for playing time. San Diego’s success last season will lead to a very tough schedule, with games against Philly, New England and Indy on the road. Draft Strategy - With over 40 WRs off the board, and still only two on my roster, I was pleased to select Keenan McCardell. His best days may be behind him, but the opportunity to select the #1 WR on an AFC West team this late is amazing.
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Draft Strategy - I need to stockpile receivers at this point and Williams is a guy with great upside. Looks like he's stepping into a Moss-like situation here. A player with his size and hands could become an unstoppable weapon in the red zone.
Positives - Marshall Faulk is healthy once again, but he is not the same player he used to be. Knowing this, he decided it was best to hand over the reigns to second-year star in the making, Steven Jackson. Faulk won’t be a mainstay on the sidelines though, he’ll likely flank out as a receiver and contribute more to the passing game. We all know what Faulk is capable of, so in the event of an injury to Jackson, consider Faulk an adequate replacement that could pay big dividends in the Rams wide open offense. Even without the starting role, Faulk will still contribute, especially in the passing game, which bodes well for those that are rewarded points per reception. Negatives - While Faulk may be healthy this season, he is not close to being the player he was in the past that managed to reach a record 2000 total yards for four consecutive years. Faulk has chronic knee problems that keep him from being the explosive, quick-footed back that he once was. While Faulk relinquished his #1 running back role to lessen the load on his body, it’s possible that even a part time workload could prove to be too much to handle. Faulk’s value lies on his ability to stay healthy and the chance that he might see more involvement in the event of an injury to Steve Jackson. Draft Strategy - With my next two picks I wanted to get Marshall Faulk and Jerome Bettis. I decided it was best to grab Faulk first and hope that Bettis can last two more picks, before I pick again. Although Faulk is not the starting back in St. Louis, he’ll still see the field as a receiver. In the event of an injury to starting running back Steven Jackson, Faulk will likely step in, which would definitely increase his value and help my team.
Positives - Just as the Chargers and fantasy football owners were ready to write off Brees, he pulls a rabbit out of his hat and makes magic on the field. At least for one more season, Brees will be at the helm with a supporting cast that features LaDainian Tomlinson at RB and Antonio Gates at TE. Negatives - Was last season just a fluke? Brees did face a weak schedule in 2004, which may have contributed more to his success than his talent. Excellent season notwithstanding, Brees still has 1st round pick Philip Rivers looming over his shoulder. Rivers is getting paid too much money to ride the pine forever. Draft Strategy - My plan entering the draft was to draft 3 QBs who have the ability to explode any given week. When Brees faces weak defenses he can certainly get the job done. With an ADP of 8.05, I felt he was great value at the end of the 9th round and will be a excellent complement to start with Vick and the other QB I am targeting for late in the draft, Kyle Boller.
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