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Survivor I - Round 21 Commentary NOTE: this draft was completed on 7/24
Positives - Watson was a 1st round pick of the Patriots last year. He possesses great size (6-3, 253lbs) and speed (4.4 40 time) and should be an effective big play threat from anywhere on the field. He should be given the chance to earn significant playing time over the course of the season and has the raw ability to be a star at the position. Daniel Graham was used often as a blocker and should resume that role this season opening the door for Watson to become the primary receiving threat at TE on the team. Negatives - Watson was hurt the first week of the season last year and needs to prove he is fully recovered. Graham has played well when given the opportunity to catch passes from Tom Brady and any mistakes by the inexperienced Watson will not be tolerated by the N.E. coaching staff. There are only so many passes to go around and Brady is likely to look to the veterans on the team in clutch situations. There is a small window of opportunity that could close on Watson quickly making him an afterthought for much of the season. Draft Strategy - This is a big time deep sleeper pick this year. Watson could be a total bust or could be this years breakout TE. Because I already have Tony Gonzalez I decided to take a chance on Watson as any other TE selected here would likely never outscore Gonzalez during the course of the season anyway. If Watson performs up to his hype and potential, he should provide several big weeks. On the other hand, should Gonzalez miss time this year, I may regret not taking a backup who is at least assured of getting consistent playing time. I would have selected Doug Jolley here if he were not chosen just prior to my pick. With the quality of the other teams in this league, the upside of this pick was worth the risk.
Positives - Hanson is a veteran who will be kicking in a dome with what should be an improved Lions offense this year. As Kevin Jones became a bigger factor in the second half of last year, the Lions and Hanson’s scoring rose. Hanson has a very strong leg and averages 2 FGs per year of over 50 yards. Negatives - Hanson hasn’t been a very accurate kicker though that has improved recently. Hanson has also had few scoring opportunities in past years with last year’s 16th ranking being his best recently. Draft Strategy - Expecting the Lions offense to continue its improvement, either through Harrington’s maturation or the insertion of Garcia, I grabbed Hanson as my backup kicker. I already have the consistency of Stover, now I am looking at Hanson to give me a shot at a couple big weeks with his strong leg.
Positives - San Diego returns all 11 defensive starters and has a week 10 bye. Negatives - Finished just about dead last in sacks as a team in 2004 and lacks big play talent. Draft Strategy - I had no one with a week 10 bye on my roster, so this selection provided some balance in that area. Every week when my arsenal has an empty chamber or two, there’s at least an opportunity that San Diego can contribute to my weekly score. Defense is a crap shoot any way.
Positives - OK, what am I missing here? Moe Williams is the projected #57 RB with an ADP (19.03). Yet, Michael Bennett is the projected #27 RB with an ADP (4.09) and Mewelde Moore is the projected #42 RB with an ADP (9.10). Do last year’s stats justify this? Bennett finished with 276 rush (1 TD) and had receiving stats of 21/201/1. Moore finished with 379 rush (0TD) and had receiving stats of 27/238/0. M. Williams finished with 161 rush (3TD) and had receiving stats of 21/233/1. These stats in this Survivor League would equate to Bennett = 80.7, Moore = 88.7, and Williams = 84.4. So what’s different? Onterrio Smith is gone – that’s about it unless you count on Bennett staying healthy. Regardless, Moe Williams is an experienced back who gets a lot of goal line touches and third down looks. Bennett is injury prone, Minnesota has a decent OFF line, and Moe is a sturdy RB. Between Williams and Moore - Williams (I feel) would be the more dependable back. Negatives - The only negative I see here is that the best situation Williams owners could expect would still be a RBBC (although Moe still gets his projected stats in this situation) unless both Bennett and Moore got hurt. Draft Strategy - The positive remarks above pretty much say it all. William’s ADP is (19.03) so I actually got him cheap at (21.04) – and that for an RB that could potentially see as much time as Bennett and Moore when all is said and done, or could see considerably more playing time if the injury bug hits Bennett as it seems to have every year.
Positives - Comments from FBG.com: Rackers was known for his length strength coming out of college, and finally made full use of it last year. His 23 touchbacks on kickoffs led the NFL, and he connected on five field goals of 50+ yards. Three of those were in one game, and his shoes from that day now reside in the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton. Neil spent the 2004 off-season in Arizona, working out with team mates, focused on being a team player. It appears to have paid off. Negatives - Comments from FBG.com: Rackers’ field goal percentages his first two years with Cincinnati were 57.1% and 60.7%. Both ranked dead last in the NFL. He’s fortunate, because not many teams would give a kicker a third chance after those results. Since then he’s climbed to the middle of the pack with 83.3%, 75.0%, and 75.9% averages. He missed three extra points while with the Bengals, but none since joining the Cardinals. Overall, his accuracy has improved from horrible to acceptable. Draft Strategy - n/a
Positives - Lindell had a good year last year, hitting on 85% of his attempts, and making all 45 extra point attempts. Negatives - Lindell hasn’t shown that he can be counted on from long range, and only hit on 1 FG of over 40 yards last year. Draft Strategy - Needed another kicker for Janikowski’s bye week. I think Buffalo’s offense should continue to improve and perhaps so will Lindell’s numbers.
Positives - Another hot prospect, waiting for an injury ahead of him. He has size and strength, and some wheels on top of that – 4.45 in the 40. He had a good June minicamp, so he’s in a good position to earn some playing time. Negatives - A new OC and Mason leaving for greener pastures could mean too many changes for an offense to gel. Jones starts off at #4 on the depth chart, behind Bennett, Calico, and another rookie (Roby) drafted ahead of him. He has a steep hill to climb in order to get some playing time. Draft Strategy - Once again, another WR for my stable. I should be able to get more out of a third-string WR than a backup RB.
Positives - The best thing going for the Cleveland Defense is off the field. New Head Coach Romeo Crennel comes to the Browns after establishing the Patriots suffocating defense for years. He adds Todd Granthem as his Defensive Coordinator, who comes over from the swarming defense of the Texans. The Browns will be thinking Defense first this year, and face a favorable schedule. Negatives - Wow, the Cleveland Defense was bad last year. Really bad. Despite all the changes off the field, and all the changes on the field, one fact remains. The Browns lack play makers on Defense. This unit will be improved, but don’t expect them to shut down Payton Manning just yet. Draft Strategy - I needed a backup Defense to compliment the Buccaneers. Using the Draft Dominator Strength of Schedule tool, I was able to look at the weeks where the Bucs had a tough matchup and look for a Defense that had an easy matchup that week. Of the Bucs three “Cold” weeks, the Browns have “Hot” matchups two of those weeks. They have an average matchup during the Bucs bye week, and that made them a good fit.
Positives - Josh had a decent rookie season and should build on it in his sophomore campaign. He went a respectable 24/31 on FGs, with a long of 53 yards. He was perfect on XP attempts, 21 for 21. He should be the clear cut starter, but someone will probably be brought into camp to push him to improve. Last season he finished as the 22nd ranked fantasy kicker. Negatives - The Jags need to improve their offense this season. 21 XPA is pathetic. Without more opportunity to score, Josh will never be a #1 kicker. Draft Strategy - I wanted a 2nd kicker in a warm climate or indoors. His last outdoor cold weather game should be week 13 against CLE. I felt he was best K available I felt confident would retain his job. I don’t like some of the other Kicker movement going on in the NFL.
Positives - Had a few 100 yard games late last season. Negatives -
Draft Strategy - I like grabbing Parker here at pick 250. He had some nice games last year once he was healthy. Could be a once-in-a-while contributor in this format.
Positives - Kris Brown has the leg to kick longer field goals and he’s on an offense that can move the ball into field goal range. Brown was 7 of 12 from 40+ yards last season. Negatives - Kris Brown’s field goal efficiency dropped from 81.8% to 70.8% last season. He is not on a team that will have a lot of extra point attempts. As of right now, Brown is an average kicker on a slightly below average offense. Draft Strategy - I needed a backup kicker to David Akers and Brown was the best available, in my opinion.
Positives - The Bills signed Williams as an undrafted free agent last year and he impressed the coaches enough to make the team. Of course, he sat behind Willis McGahee and Travis Henry on the depth chart, but late season injuries forced Williams onto the field the final weeks and he did well. Henry is gone and Williams looks like a front-runner to back-up McGahee. Another injury and Williams could see significant time. Negatives - Too small to be an every down back, Williams is better suited for 3rd down and spot duty. It is far from certain that Williams will be McGahee’s primary backup. Buffalo may acquire a free agent to fill that role, or split the carries between Williams and ReShard Lee. Draft Strategy - Looking at my team, I felt my RBs were fairly weak. I had Westbrook and McGahee and a ton of question marks. I had planned to grab Buckhalter in case of problems with Westbrook but he went before I could get my hands on him. Williams seems to be leading the pack right now to backup McGahee and I figured he was worth this late rounder in case I lose McGahee to injury.
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