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Survivor I - Round 2 Commentary NOTE: this draft was completed on 7/24
Positives - After taking the running back reins in week 5 of last season, McGahee never looked back. He topped 100 yards in 7 of his 12 starts, and despite playing behind Travis Henry the first third of the season, finished as a top 15 RB. Henry has moved elsewhere, and the ship is squarely in McGahee’s hands to sail. There is really no one behind him to steal significant carries. McGahee is ready to roll. Negatives - The knee! In his final college game, McGahee suffered a terrible knee injury, which required surgery in 2003. He is now more than 2 years removed from the injury, and will be called upon to carry the load all season. McGahee proved he could tough it out with injuries last year, always coming back on the field for more. But there are some injuries you can’t come back from. He will also be facing a lot of 8-man fronts with an inexperienced QB at the helm. In a league with no pickups or trades, losing McGahee would crush a team’s chances of winning. Draft Strategy - It’s not my birthday, but our Survivor league left me a big gift by passing on McGahee. With an ADP of 6th overall, I thought for sure he would go, and planned accordingly. But when he fell in my lap, it was an easy switch in tactic to grab him here. I was thrilled with a Westbrook/McGahee tandem picking at the end of the order. My only concern here is that both players have durability question marks. Since we are stuck with the team we draft, losing either player for even a few weeks would be a huge blow to my odds of winning.
Positives - The biggest positive is that Owens is a finely-tuned machine when it comes to catching the ball. Not only is he good at what he does, but he is on a very productive offense led by a great quarterback in Donovan McNabb. The two may have their spats, but when it becomes game time, both have their sights on doing whatever they can to gain victory. Owens is a top flight receiver that will likely put up much needed points every week. In the last 5 years, Owens has averaged 89 receptions, 1293 yards and 13 touchdowns. Negatives - Obviously the thought of a holdout was a concern, but Owens is attending training camp (but says he won’t be happy). He believes he outperformed his current contract and should be paid what he’s worth. It’s doubtful that his contract will be restructured and that may cause some unneeded stress for him and the rest of the team. Another cause for concern regarding Owens is his knee/leg injury that sidelined him at the end of the 2004 season, all the way up until the Super Bowl. If his play at the Super Bowl is any indication of how his 2005 season will be, then we probably have nothing to worry about. Draft Strategy - I don’t think everyone would’ve done what I did. Even though I had the 11th pick in the draft, I never thought I wouldn’t have a running back after my first two picks, but that’s exactly where I was after selecting Owens. So why take Owens and not a running back? I was all prepared to select Willis McGahee, but he was taken one pick before me. As I looked at the other running backs available (Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, Corey Dillon, Steven Jackson, Jamal Lewis) that might interest me, I concluded that I was going to continue to go with the best value available. For me, that was clearly Owens. Even if Randy Moss was still on the board (which he was not) I still think I would’ve picked Owens, just because I think he has something to prove and I like how he gels with McNabb and the Eagles offense. I knew I had the best quarterback and the best wide receiver with this pick. I’d rather have that, than take a chance that the 11th best running back would outperform Terrell Owens in terms of fantasy production. I think I made the right choice, but I absolutely have to take a running back with my 3rd pick and probably my 4th pick. I’ll have to agonize for 20 more picks and watch the running backs disappear, but I’m gambling that my decision will be worth it.
Positives -
Negatives -
Draft Strategy - I was thrilled to see Jones drop to me here. I feel I've gotten first round talent at pick 15. If McGahee was available here, I take him, but Jones is no slouch. Nobody else on the radar screen once my pick came and Jones was available. Ideally, I'd like to draft another RB with my third round pick, but I'm going to take the player I think is capable of having a massive week, regardless of position.
Positives - Corey Dillon and the Super Bowl champion New England Patriots have a knack for winning. Corey produced 1635 rushing yards with an outstanding average of 4.7 ypc. 13 combined touchdowns led to his final fantasy ranking as the 7th best RB. He enters his 9th season knowing what he needs to do to be successful, and in a system that brings the best out of their players. Corey had 9 100- yd games and his worst rushing performance was against a tough Buffalo defense in which he still put up a respectable 79 yards. His average of over 16 FFP/game is a nice cushion for your # 2 RB. Negatives - 30 years of age is not something that can be considered a positive for a RB. Corey is not much of a factor in the passing game, as he recorded only 15 receptions last season. In a PPR league, I’d prefer a back who averages at least 30 catches a season. Kevin Faulk and Cedric Cobbs may see the field a bit more this season and I’d expect to see a 15% decrease in touches this season. Draft Strategy - The only non RB players I would have considered at the juncture in the draft were already taken. Corey is the clear starting RB in New England, and the week 7 bye is one I was not as concerned with.
Positives - Holt remains one of the premier receivers in the league. He has a knack for getting open in Coach Martz’ offense and can punish DBs with his explosive speed. Since taking over as the #1 target in St. Louis, Holt has lead the most prolific passing offense in the NFL. The picture of consistency with five straight 1300+ yard receiving seasons, he has added a knack for finding the end zone with consecutive double-digit touchdown years. Has a great rapport with both Marc Bulger and Jamie Martin. With all of the weapons on the Rams’ roster, defense can not key on any one player. As consistent as they come, and has not missed a game in six seasons and plays a weak strength of schedule for WRs this year. Combine that with an improved offensive line and re-invigorated rushing attack, and Holt will put up top three numbers again this year. Negatives - Even though Holt has tallied 22 TDs in the last two seasons, he only nabbed 23 in four years prior to that. The St. Louis offense does spread the ball around a lot, and Bruce, McDonald, Curtis, Faulk, and Jackson will all eat into Holt’s numbers. Draft Strategy - I was planning on taking another RB in this slot; however, my goal of snaring Corey Dillon evaporated before my eyes as Nugget picked my pocket. Also considered at this pick were Marvin Harrison and Curtis Martin. While the “top three” receivers are generally considered to be Moss, Owens, and Harrison, I had Holt rated higher than Harrison. As Manning has matured over the years, he has learned to spread the ball around more and not lock on to Harrison. This was no more clearly evident than last year, as Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley had as many big games as Harrison. Martin is as consistent as they come, but is getting long in the tooth, and will not catch a lot of balls out of the backfield. Bottom line, I refuse to “overpay” for a Running Back in the second round. Holt is a monster, and getting the #3 WR instead of the #13 RB in a format that must start three Wide Receivers presented the best value at this pick.
Positives - 5.0 ypc in a backup role as a rookie last year, Jackson has been named the starter. His size and speed should help grind out those tough yards. Supported by a passing game and an improved o-line, he'll have his opportunities. Negatives - Although Jackson has been named the starter, Faulk will still be in the mix and taking away carries. The goal-line situation has yet to be resolved, so hopefully Faulk won't be assigned the 'vulture' role. Draft Strategy - After passing on an RB in round 1, I couldn't afford to not take one this time around. Jackson has the skills to fill Faulk's shoes, and I'm willing to take a flyer on him here. One of the draft chat comments that followed this pick alluded to Jackson being an "RB on a passing team". Well, that never stopped Faulk from being at the top of draft lists over the years.
Positives - You only have to look back to Lewis’ 2003 season to see what he’s capable of. With 2000+ yards at an amazing 5.3 yds/carry, Lewis has shown that he CAN be an elite back. Projecting Lewis’ 2004 numbers out to an entire season (he missed 4 games on league suspension), you get 1340+ yards and 9 TDs. I project Jamal to slightly eclipse those numbers this year and jump into the top 10 at RB. Negatives - You never know what’s going to happen with Jamal Lewis. He may be in jail 4 months from now and that’s a risk you take when drafting him. Also, with to major knee surgeries in his past as well as off-season ankle surgery, there is a definite injury risk with Lewis. Draft Strategy - I had already planned to go RB/RB with my first two, but seriously considered Chad Johnson here. In the end, with the possibility to start three RBs because of the flex position each week, I decided Lewis was my pick.
Positives - Comments from FBG.com: Chad Johnson has everything teams look for in a wide receiver: blazing speed, good size, excellent leaping ability, terrific body control, fantastic hands, and a competitive spirit. He also runs very good patterns and shows a natural ability to adjust to the ball in the air. He won the “Best Hands” competition at the Pro Bowl Skills Challenge. He has the quickness and extra burst to get separation from defenders; the concentration to make the spectacular catch; the size and strength to beat the jam at the line of scrimmage, and to outmuscle defenders for the ball. He has also shown the ability to take a big hit and to pop right back up and go back to the huddle. Most importantly, Chad Johnson makes plays. He has been extremely productive for the Bengals, with three straight 1,000-yard seasons to his credit and enough big plays to become a regular star in highlight films. Johnson also has a strong work ethic and a constant desire to improve. Negatives - Comments from FBG.com: Johnson is not a great runner after the catch. Despite his strength, he does not break tackles as a ball carrier. And despite his ability to make the spectacular catch, he will sometimes drop the easy one. He dropped several catchable balls in the first game of the season against the Browns last year, and dropped a ball against the Broncos the following week. He can also sulk if things don’t go his way. Finally, Johnson is a talker who not only motivates himself and his teammates, but sometimes motivates the opposing team with his chatter. Draft Strategy - n/a
Positives - Of course, Marvin88 had to have his namesake. But this was not a “homer” pick. Harrison’s consistency speaks for itself over the years catching almost 33% of Manning’s TD passes last year. He is elusive and runs flawless pass routes, which makes him so deadly. Throw in his repore with Manning and you have almost an unstoppable WR. He is deceptively fast and has a knack for knowing when to “lay down” avoiding the big hit, thus preserving his health. Since 1999, he has caught over 100 passes 5 out of 7 years with two “blip” years of 86 and 94 catches. Negatives - The only negative I see in Harrison is size. Although he is elusive, it only takes one solid hit by someone like a Rodney Harrison (who head hunts Harrison every chance he gets) to put Marvin on the sidelines. He is beginning to get up there in age also as he’ll turn 33 around the start of the season. Draft Strategy - Here is where having a high draft pick benefited me. With Deuce already in the fold, I could really look for value. At this point there were already (14) RBs off the board. Instead of falling in lock step with the RB run, I decided to couple my 2nd and 3rd round picks with stud WRs hoping that RBs would continue to leave the board until my 3rd round pick. Harrison was the best WR left on the board at this point (rated 5th), but could arguably be considered a safer pick over a TO who is threatening to “holdout” and, dare I say, Randy Moss who must begin to gel with a new (sometimes erratic) QB in Kerry Collins. There’s no doubting the offensive fire power of the Colts and it is simply a matter of who is going to catch the TDs. Marvin will get his share.
Positives - Jones posted monster numbers last year in a half season last year and showed great durability after his initial injury last year. I anticipate more involvement for Julius in the passing game as Richie Anderson won’t be a factor this year. As the 15th RB selected in this draft, Jones offered both the potential to be a top ten fantasy back and comes with low miles under the hood. In his last 7 games of 2004, Jones’ post three 25+ point fantasy games (two of those 30+ in this format). Those are the type of games that are money in a best start format. Negatives - The fact that Dallas signed Anthony Thomas as a free agent and spent a high pick on Marion Barber is a concern. If Jones finds his way into Parcells’ doghouse, this pick will be a bust. In his rookie campaign, Jones lost time to injury on two occasions. Draft Strategy - I had targeted Chad Johnson, Torry Holt, or Terrell Owens at this spot. Unfortunately all had been selected, however, both Manning and Culpepper were jumped on early which sent several quality RBs dropping into my lap. There were two backs that I liked better at this spot, but I felt pretty confident that one would make it back to me, where Jones would likely be gone based on his FBG ranking.
Positives - Martin is a workhorse back who has averaged over 1300 rushing yards, 45 receptions and 9 touchdowns per season for his 10 year career. Martin was the #4 fantasy RB playing in a very conservative offense. Mike Heimerdinger was brought in from Tennessee as offensive coordinator to open up the offense. While this may lessen Martin’s carries, it may also open more running lanes and should provide Martin with ample scoring opportunities. Negatives - Martin is another year older and coming off a 371 carry year. Having carried a great deal over his career one would assume the toll on his body will start to show effect on his performance. The Jets have many questions on offense from a new system to Chad Pennington’s shoulder to the loss of Kareem McKenzie & Anthony Becht on the offensive line. Additionally, Martin will face Buffalo & New England, 2 of the best defenses in football, a total of 4 times – and 2 more games against Miami will not be a piece of cake either. Draft Strategy - Entering the draft I planned to take Holmes & Martin with my first 2 picks. After taking Holmes I needed a reliable RB2 and Martin fits that bill perfectly. I passed over Ahman Green here due to his injury history and offensive line losses. Martin plays through injury and has only missed 4 games in his career. The Jets are a run first team that should contest for the AFC East division title meaning Martin will again be the focal point of the offense and see a lot of carries and red zone chances.
Positives - I was surprised to find Green still available at this point, especially in a scoring system that awards 1 point per reception. Green is able to rack up large chunks of yardage by being utilized in both the running and passing games. Over the last 4 years, Green has finished in the top 3 at his position twice. I think Green Bay will make every effort to emphasize the run once again this year. Although I expect Najeh Davenport to receive a small share of the rushing load, I expect Green to improve on the worse than expected performance he posted last year which was primarily a result of failing to reach 20 carries in 8 games. Green is also in the last year of his contract and should be motivated to attempt to earn one more payday. Negatives - Green Bay lost 2 starting offensive lineman and signed lesser quality replacements. Green Bay also did not effectively address some defensive weaknesses which could cause them to fall behind often and negatively impact the running game as they would need to pass more to catch up. Green is also 28 and could be nearing the beginning of the end. Davenport, who has been impressive in limited opportunities, is waiting in the wings to take over should Green struggle. Off the field, there is an unresolved domestic violence case pending which could prompt a response from the league, should Green be found guilty. Draft Strategy - I was targeting a RB2 at this spot and was fortunate to find Green available. Green underperformed last year compared to previous years while Green Bay featured the passing game more than in recent seasons. Even with all the struggles in Green Bay last year, Green still finished ranked 13th and I was able to take him as the 17th RB off the board. I considered Rudi Johnson at this point, but Johnson is not heavily involved in the passing game and had the second most carries in the league last year which may limit his upside. Even if Green only duplicates last year’s performance, he is a good value pick at this point. If Green can modestly improve on last years numbers, he’s a potential top ten RB and a steal as the last pick of the second round. With Tomlinson and Green in tow, I like my team’s prospects so far.
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