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Survivor I - Round 14 Commentary NOTE: this draft was completed on 7/24
Positives - Davis was on pace to have a decent season last year, but after 7 games, was sidelined with turf toe. “I think I was on pace to do very well last year,” Davis said recently. “It's just a shame that I had to get hurt. But this is a whole new season, a whole new beginning, and I've got my mind right to be able to finish this season healthy and help this team any way I know how.” I agree. Negatives - Davis hasn’t exactly racked up the receptions. In the 7 games he played last season, he only topped 3 receptions in a game once. So far in his career, he has scattered a big game here or there, but his typical output is 2 receptions for 30 yards. Not exactly stellar numbers. Draft Strategy - This pick may have been a bit of a reach, but Davis impressed me before his injury sidelined him for the 2004 season. As my WR5, I felt this was worthy of a big risk/reward type of choice. The other receiver I considered here was Todd Pinkston, but with Westbrook and LJ Smith already on my team, I thought that would be Eagles overkill.
Positives - Washington defensive coordinator Gregg Williams is a defensive-minded genius. At least that’s what history dictates. He’s seen success with Tennessee, Buffalo and now Washington. It’s hard to find a track record with results like that, but that’s exactly what Williams brings to the table. The Redskins increased from 27 sacks in 2003 to 40 sacks in 2004. They only allowed 81.5 yards per rush last season (2nd best in the NFL). Negatives - The Redskins may be on the verge of being an elite defensive team, but how does that translate to fantasy production? They were ninth in sacks (40), only 3 teams had fewer fumble recoveries, which isn’t good news. The Redskins were a middle of the road team in terms of interceptions (18) and they scored only 2 defensive touchdowns, compared to Buffalo’s league-leading 10. The Redskins may have a strong defense, but as of right now, it’s not amounting to stellar fantasy points. Draft Strategy - Look at Gregg Williams’ track record – that’s why I made the pick. They have a favorable schedule and in my opinion, they are on the verge of being a quality fantasy defense.
Positives - Positives:
Negatives -
Draft Strategy - An upside pick here. Looking for RBs at this point who can possibly put up some points on any given week and have the possibility to explode if an injury should occur to the starter.
Positives - Terry Glenn is the #2 WR in Dallas and is reunited with former Patriot teammate Drew Bledsoe. He put up 394 yards in 5 games in 2004 before being injured for the rest of the season. He averaged 6.8 targets per game, which last season would have placed him in the top 40 WRs. The last two times he played a full 16 games he was WR # 27 and #20. With Keyshawn starting on the opposite side, the Cowboy wide receivers have some veteran experience to move the ball downfield. Negatives - In 9 seasons Terry Glenn has only remained healthy two times. He is 31 years old and has always counted on his speed for separation. Bill Parcels has a history with Terry, referring to him as “she” due to his injury plagued history in New England. Witten and Keyshawn may steal a majority of the receptions. Draft Strategy - Again, the opportunity to draft a #2 WR with big play potential fit in with my plan. He is WR #6 on my roster, but with my 1st 4 picks spent on RBs, I don’t need anymore help there. I’ve got two good QBs locked up, and a solid TE and defense. It is too early for a kicker in this format, so I’ll continue to look at WR and possibly a third QB.
Positives - Franks has caught 24 TDs in five years for the Packers, and is a consistent target in the Red Zone. Franks also has the trust of Bret Favre, and will continue to receive looks around the goal line. Three of the last four years, Franks caught at least seven TDs, including last year. He will catch another six or seven TDs and around 350 yards again this year. Negatives - The Packers lost two of their Offensive Guards in the offseason, which could negatively impact the Green Bay offense, and Frank’s numbers. While Franks does get a lot of Red Zone looks, he does not put up the yardage numbers to be a real threat on the caliber of Todd Heap or Tony Gonzalez in a yardage based league. Draft Strategy - At this point in the draft, it’s time to start filling in the backups. I was shocked to see Franks still available in Round 14, two rounds after Chris Cooley was taken. The timing was perfect, as three TEs were taken in the next round before I picked again, and the drop off in value was steep.
Positives - He’s a career just-under-80% kicker, though he’s had much better success in the past two seasons, above 85%. He’s improved from 40+, coinciding with giving up the kickoff duty three years ago. 40+ means bonus points, so this is a good thing. Like Vandy, he’s also missed only two XP. His QB Plummer quietly finished in the #5 spot in 2004, and production means opportunities to score. Negatives - For just about any other position, being 35yo would be a negative. He has the same name as a favorite movie mass murderer. If you rearrange the letters in his last name, you get “Lame” or “Male”. (yes, I’m reaching) Draft Strategy - I returned to my kicker plan, as of course Vinatieri was taken in the next pick after I took Shipp. Oh well, #1 and #3 should do nicely.
Positives - WR pickings are getting thin, and Caldwell presents as much upside as anyone left. Pre-injury, Caldwell showed good speed last year and has good running abilities after the catch. He showed a good report with Brees last year through five weeks, catching three touchdowns in that span. If he can return to form and take over the #2 WR position this year, he presents great value at this position in the draft. Negatives - Caldwell is coming off a torn ACL suffered in week 6 last year. As speed and quickness is his game, the injury could really affect his potential to pick up where he left off. Caldwell is also facing competition for the job not only from Eric Parker, but from rookie Vincent Jackson, who reports say is looking good in camp. Also, before his first few games last year Caldwell did give any signs that he can be a top shelf receiver, showing little in his first two years in the league. Draft Strategy - Still needed a few receivers to round out my lineup, and Caldwell could be a good pick if he can recover and show that he can continue to improve his game as he looked to be doing last year. At this point, while there isn’t much left at WR, I like Caldwell’s upside.
Positives - Comments from FBG.com: Todd Pinkston, entering his sixth season, had found his role in Philadelphia as a complementary offensive player. Drafted with an eye toward becoming the team’s lead receiver, he was mercifully relegated to secondary status with the acquisition of Terrell Owens. Although his overall numbers weren’t gaudy (36 receptions for 676 yards and one touchdown), his career best 18.8 yards per reception were crucial to keeping defenses honest and creating the underneath opportunities that Terrell Owens, Brian Westbrook and L.J. Smith capitalized upon. Although he wasn't a multi-dimensional receiving threat, his season-ending Achilles tear will certainly impact the overall productivity of the Eagles passing game. Negatives - Comments from FBG.com: The only negative fantasy owners need concern themselves with is Pinkston's season ending injury during the early days of training camp. Pinkston tore his Achilles tendon and is lost for the entire 2005 season. For those in dynasty leagues looking beyond 2005, one of Pinkston’s flaws is evident upon first laying eyes on him; his frame. Pinkston is among the skinniest players in the league, which limits his ability to get off the line when facing press coverage, and makes it all but impossible to outmuscle defenders for jump ball situations. Pinkston’s other major flaw is only evident when breaking down film; he’s desperately afraid of taking a big hit. His fear of contact and failure to lay out for several catchable balls the last few seasons have soured Eagles fans against him, and likely gives QB Donovan McNabb pause on occasion, as well. Draft Strategy - n/a
Positives - Reggie Williams was a high draft pick by the Jag’s and has a lot of talent. He actually appears to have increased his speed and strength during the off-season. He is still considered the #2 WR for the Jaguars and with the Jacksonville running game having some question marks, QB Byron Leftwich may be throwing more often. You would think that opposing DEFs primary focus would be on stopping Jimmy Smith, so if Williams can perform he should get adequate looks. Lastly, Jacksonville has a favorable SOS against pass DEFs. Negatives - The primary “knock” on William’s is that he tends to have “hands of stone”. It will not take long for Williams to be replaced by Troy Edwards or Ernest Wilford if his consistency catching the football does not improve. There is also rookie Matt Jones in the background. Draft Strategy - Again looking for value in players left on the board. I still needed some complimentary TEs, but at this point the value still seemed to lie with the WRs. Williams is a touted “sleeper” pick and was a better compliment to my line-up than Darius Watts who shared a BYE week with WR Lee Evans whom I had already taken.
Positives - Vinny Testaverde finished 2004 as the 16th ranked fantasy QB. There are plenty of knocks against Bledsoe, but surely his talents haven’t eroded beyond Vinny’s. Parcells likes his veteran QBs and definitely has a win now mentality which bodes well for Bledsoe’s 2005 outlook. A promising young RB, a star at TE, and a solid veteran WR corps should provide Bledsoe plenty of weapons. Negatives - To steal a thought from Jason Wood, Bledsoe was released by Buffalo for a guy with 5 career passes (two of those passes being to an unknown target). Of course we all know the Brady story. Maybe this all bodes well for Drew Henson. Draft Strategy - I’ve pushed my luck as long as possible at QB and a back up to Hasselbeck was now a must. I fully expect Bledsoe to surprise people with some big fantasy weeks in 2005 and to look back as the 24th QB selected being a great sleeper pick in this format.
Positives - Parker has very good speed, fastest receiver on team, and good hands. He came on in last 3 games of 2004 with 9 catches for 137 yards and 1 TD on 13 targets. This year he enters camp as the #2 WR on one of the highest scoring offenses in the league. The Chiefs’ #1 WR, Eddie Kennison, is 32 yrs old and has never really been a true number 1 possession type WR, rather more of a deep threat. Plus, with the release of Johnnie Morton, there is the opportunity for Parker to step into the starting lineup. Negatives - The Chiefs were very thin at WR last year and yet Parker was unable to contribute due to hamstring problems. There will be plenty of competition for Morton’s number 2 spot: Freddie Mitchell was brought in from Philadelphia and Marc Boerigter, who scored 8 times in 2002 is back from last year’s knee injury. Additionally, TE Kris Wilson, whom the Chiefs were high on during 2004’s camp before being lost with a broken leg, is back healthy. This adds yet another red zone option to the Chiefs offense and, unfortunately for Chiefs’ WRs, when it comes to red zone priority they are far down the list behind Priest Holmes & Tony Gonzalez. Draft Strategy - For what I think is the 5th time in this draft BassNBrew grabbed the guy I was targeting. Obviously, Bass is a true shark as he is thinking along same lines as me. This time it was Drew Bledsoe who I wanted. I think he should be able to exceed Vinny’s numbers from last year and would have been a nice addition to my QBBC strategy. I turned my attention back to WR and took a chance on Parker. At this point there were a lot of #3 WRs left and of the number 2s I think Parker offers the most upside in the KC offense.
Positives - Ramsey is still a young QB, only entering his 4th season. He took over midway through last season and is the projected starter this year. Ramsey should be more comfortable in his second year running Joe Gibbs’ offense. He also realizes that this may be his last opportunity to have a legitimate shot to run an NFL offense and should be motivated to have a good season. Ramsey tossed 8 touchdowns against 5 interceptions in the final 6 games of last season showing improvement which will hopefully continue into this year. Ramsey has the potential to make significant improvement similar to Drew Brees last season. Negatives - Ramsey is likely to be on a short leash as there’s pressure for Joe Gibbs and the Redskins to win now. Veteran Mark Brunell is still on the roster and 1st round pick Jason Campbell may be given a chance should the team fallout out of contention later in the season. Ramsey will be throwing to a whole new cast of receivers as Coles and Gardner have been replaced by Santana Moss and David Patten. Not only does Ramsey need to quickly develop chemistry with these new receivers, there are many who think this may be a downgrade in talent as well. Ramsey has yet to perform at the level expected when he was a 1st round pick several years ago, and the current situation he finds himself in may not be one any QB could succeed in. Draft Strategy - Having missed the initial run on backup QBs, I had to grab the best remaining QB here or risk not having a backup at all. If Ramsey can hold onto the starting job, he should post stats good enough to help cover Trent Green’s bye week or cover for Green should he miss a week or two. Should Green miss significant time, I’m in trouble at this position. Looking over the past few rounds, I probably should have selected a higher quality backup QB rather than take a defense in the 11th round knowing that defenses would still be available after the starting QBs dried up. I just felt that the value of the Pittsburgh defense was too great to pass up and got caught on the wrong side of a run at the position.
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