Jason Wood's Thoughts

Kerry Collins has been the poster boy for fantasy mediocrity for the last half decade. From 2000-2003, Collins ranked no better than 8th but no worse than 20th among fantasy quarterbacks. Last year, in his first season as a Raider, Collins finished the year ranked 15th despite playing in only 14 games. He's never thrown more than 22 touchdowns in a season (2000) and has thrown one more interception than touchdown over his career (154 INTs-to-153 TDs).

Despite his penchant for mediocrity, it's difficult to ignore the tremendous opportunity Collins has in 2005; it really shouldn't surprise anyone if he enjoys a career year on the field, and a top-10 fantasy season in the process. Let's consider the reasons why Collins almost can't help but break out of the mediocre standard he's set for himself:

1) R. Moss -- Randy Moss is arguably the best receiver of his generation, and he's now a Raider. It's difficult to quantify the impact Moss has on his quarterback's production but consider, in his time as a Viking, Moss made the likes of Gus Frerotte and Jeff George look like world beaters. Aside from Moss' obvious productivity (season averages of 1,300+ yards and 13+ TDs), his presence also frees up other offensive players as opposing defenses game plan for Moss.

2) A Deep Receiving Corps -- The addition of Moss merely cements the receiving corps among the league's elite. This offseason the team also re-signed Jerry Porter who would be a productive number one receiver on any number of NFL teams. And now Doug Gabriel and Ron Curry, who both showed flashes last season as part-time starters, will slot into the 3rd and 4th receiver roles, allowing Oakland to use spread formations other teams can only envy.

3) Year Two in Oakland -- Last season Collins was summarily dismissed by the Giants and scrambled to find a home, landing in Oakland as Rich Gannon's backup to start the season. Collins not only had to adjust to a new offense, but he didn't get the benefit of extended reps in training camp either. This season, Collins enters camp the unquestioned starter, his level of familiarity with the playbook and personnel should benefit in turn.

4) L. Jordan -- Head Coach Norv Turner gained his reputation as an offensive mastermind largely on the basis of a balanced, offensive attack whereby an effective running game allows for good field position, clock management, and creates opportunities for the passing game off play action fakes. Last year, try as he might, the Raiders were completely inept in the running game; finishing dead last (32nd) in both rushing attempts and yards. With the addition of Jordan, the Raiders believe they have someone who can give them quality production and force defenses to not overplay the pass, as they were wont to do in 2004.

5) The Raiders Defense (or lack thereof) -- The Raiders were one of the worst defensive units in the league a year ago (31st in points allowed, 30th in yards allowed) and it's difficult to envision a major improvement in 2005 based on the offseason moves. CB Phillip Buchanon was traded to the Texans, and two raw but speedy rookies are vying for his place in the lineup. They also traded away their most athletic linebacker as part of the Randy Moss trade, and did nothing to address the defensive line save for the addition of Derrick Burgess; the walking wounded. But a bad defense in this case likely equates to upside for the Raiders passing game. By virtue of having to outscore their opponents, Collins and Company will have to sling the ball all over the field.

Positives

• One of the deepest receiving corps in the AFC, led by arguably the league's most dangerous offensive weapon in Randy Moss
• Collins enjoys the benefit of an offseason and full training camp as the team's starter this year; quite a departure from the prior season
• Collins is a prototypical pocket passer with a rocket arm; well suited for Norv Turner's offensive scheme
• The addition of Lamont Jordan should allow more offensive balance and in turn make it impossible for opposing defenses to key on the passing game as they did in 2004
• A suspect defense means the team will likely find themselves in many offensive shoot-outs, a boon for passing statistics if not for the team itself

Negatives

• He has never thrown for more than 22 touchdowns and isn't instinctive in his reads or sensing the pass rush
• He will continue to throw quite a few interceptions, which can kill drives and ultimately limit the team's scoring opportunities
• HC Norv Turner, in an ideal world, would have the team run quite a bit more and pass much less; which could impact Collins upside
• Although the offensive line has young talent, on paper, it must make major strides in 2005 in order to keep Collins off his back

Final Thoughts

A year ago, Kerry Collins had another ho-hum fantasy season; finishing as the 15th best quarterback. But looking a bit deeper, he was the 8th best QB over his final 10 games; when it appeared as though he finally got comfortable in the Raiders offense after being thrust into the lineup the month before. With the addition of Randy Moss, plus the presence of a ground attack, a porous defense, and an improving young line, it would seem unlikely if not downright impossible for Collins NOT to finish among the top-10 fantasy quarterbacks in 2005 barring injury. As long as you don't overpay for him and expect some magical ascendancy to the upper echelon, he could serve you well as one of the better every week fantasy starters.

Mike Brown's Thoughts

Kerry Collins began the 2004 season as Rich Gannon's backup in Oakland, despite the general consensus feeling that Collins was the much better fit for the team's style of play. When Gannon was felled by a serious neck injury early in the season, we got to see what kind of a fit Collins was exactly. The early returns weren't promising, as Collins threw just 2 touchdowns against 8 interceptions in his first four starts. Collins, however, rebounded to have a very solid season for Oakland in his first year as a starter there.

Even late in the year when Oakland continued losing game after game, HC Norv Turner never once turned to backup Marques Tuiasosopo for help. It could have been that Turner just wanted to give his team the best chance to win each week, and didn't care much about grooming his QB of the future. Or, it could have been that he looked at Collins as his QB of the present AND future.

Collins enters 2005 as the unquestioned starter; there is no viable competition on the roster.

Positives

• Collins finished with very respectable numbers, throwing for 21 touchdowns and nearly 3,500 yards in just 14 games last year. Those numbers prorate out to 24 touchdowns and 3,993 yards ' and that was WITHOUT Randy Moss
• Collins finished 2004 on an absolute tear, tossing 16 touchdowns over his final seven games
• The Raiders' offensive philosophy perfectly suits Collins' strengths. His is not mobile, but possesses a cannon arm. HC Norv Turner wants to open up the field and generate high-octane offense using the deep pass, a Collins specialty
• Randy Moss was traded to Oakland in the offseason. When a team acquires one of the game's most dynamic and physically gifted playmaker, it usually means huge improvements for the quarterback's passing numbers (see: McNabb, Donovan)
• WR Jerry Porter unexpectedly returned, giving the Raiders one of the best (if not THE best) 1-2 punches in the entire NFL
• Oakland's defense is expected to be very poor this season. As we've seen in recent years, the key to fantasy gold is often finding players on an explosive offense that is coupled with a porous defense (see: Colts, Chiefs, Vikings)
• The Raiders brought in RB LaMont Jordan to be the team's featured back. Jordan seemingly possesses all of the necessary skills to be an excellent starting back in the NFL. A good running game could provide the perfect balance to the offense, and open things up even more for the Raider passing game

Negatives

• Collins has only finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback once in his career (#8 in 2000)
• He's got more career interceptions than touchdowns (154-to-153); even last year his TD-to-Int ratio was about 1:to:1
• Chemistry could be an issue with the Raiders. Adding the sometimes-abrasive Moss to the mix could have a negative effect on the team as a whole. Remember, even Daunte Culpepper has had poor seasons with Moss, and Kerry Collins is not the talent that Daunte Culpepper is
• Collins had the tendency to 'bunch' his scoring last year. In Weeks 12, 13, and 15, he totaled 12 touchdowns. In his other 12 games, he threw just nine total touchdowns. That's fine in total points leagues, but consistency is king in more traditional head-to-head formats
• Collins can't run, as evidenced by his 36 rushing yards last year. He hasn't scored a rushing touchdown since the 2000 season

Final Thoughts

Kerry Collins can win you your fantasy football league title this season. It might sound crazy because of how poor Collins has looked at times in recent years, but there is no denying that he's in a prime situation to excel. He's got everything you could possibly want in a fantasy QB: tremendous receivers, a solid running game, good offensive line, and a shoddy defense.

About the only thing that might hold someone back from drafting Collins is his name. A lot of people wouldn't feel 100% confident heading into the season relying on Kerry Collins as their fantasy starter. Well, let their loss be your gain. There is no reason to think that Collins' excellent play from a year ago will suddenly disappear. If anything, he'll produce well above and beyond what he did in 2004, mostly because of the presence of Randy Moss.

By the time August rolls around, it may be difficult to get proper value for Collins because it is likely that many people will have jumped on the bandwagon by then. But if you can get him in the early middle rounds, you should have yourself a high impact player at a key fantasy position.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

mbuehner:
Collins is going to be overvalued by someone in almost every draft. He only thrown for over 20 tds twice in his career, and has thrown more ints than TDs overall. His career completion percentage is 55.9%, not good. While he has a great chance to put up career numbers, he will need to in order to meet his draft position. Even if he has just a 'very good' year by his standards, it will ruin a lot of fantasy teams. Randy Moss brings the potential for greatness, but also the potential for meltdown, which needless to say would bury Collins owners that have him targeted as a top 5 QB. I'll let somebody else have Collins this year, because i know he wont be there for what I would pay for him. Trent Green, Hasselbeck, and Bulger will still be on the board of a lot of drafts when Collins goes.

Unlucky:
K. Collins: 312 for 541, 4006 yds, 57.7%, 7.4 YPA, 33 TDs, 19 INTs, 20/20 rushing

Why? Try projecting the Oakland receiving total and coming up with worse numbers than that. With barely any receiving for the RBs and TEs, you'll be hard pressed to come up with totals like 3600 yds and 24 TDs like some people are suggesting. Of course I'm assuming 16 games played for Collins - it's impossible to predict otherwise.

David Yudkin (FBG Staff):
Not that this is covering new ground, but for Collins to rank in the Top 5 (as some have suggested), he would need some pretty impressive passing totals.

For debate purposes only, Jake Plummer was the #5 QB last year with 320 fantasy points scored. Collins gets close to nothing running the ball, so he would need to rack up some hefty passing totals.

If we give him 4000 passing yards, that would get him 200 points. If we give him 35 passing TD, that would get him another 140 points. Deducting 20 points for interceptions, he would then hit 320 points.

Does Collins have a 4000/35 season in him? There have been a total of 9 such seasons in NFL history (Warner and Marino did it twice, Culpepper, Manning, Favre, Young, and Beuerlein each did it once).

Kerry Collins Projections

SOURCE	PYD	PTD	INT	RSHYD	RSHTD
Jason Wood	4070	25	18	40	0
Mike Brown	4050	24	18	30	0
Message Board Consensus	3939	28	20	40	0