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Week 1 Sleepers
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Posted 9/7 by Bob Henry, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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This article is a weekly look at player
generally ranked outside the realm of every week
starters. The players covered here usually fall
into two categories: those with a good matchup
or those who have an opportunity to start
because of an injury to a teammate.
On the other hand, sometimes a player may be
considered if they are normal a starter, but
have a bad matchup. Each position is covered
with in descending order beginning with the
players who are better gambles and finishing
with those who are certifiable reaches. Your
mileage may vary, but the idea is to discuss
these players and provide you with some analysis
that might help you make those difficult lineup
decisions a bit easier. Good luck and always
keep in mind that your feedback and comments are
welcome.
Quarterbacks
Jake Delhomme, CAR vs NO
Delhomme has been razor sharp throughout the
preseason. He was an overachiever last year and
despite the loss of All-Pro WR Muhsin Muhammad,
it looks like his success will carry over to
this year. The return of Steve Smith certainly
helps offset the Muhammad's loss as does the
addition of Rod Gardner. The Saints allowed the
10th most fantasy pts to QBs (255 yds/gm and 23
TDs) last year, too.
Joey Harrington, DET vs GB
The Packers defense is dreadful. Their secondary
has one proven player and the pass rush is KGB -
and not much else. Last year, the Packers ranked
4th in fantasy pts allowed to QBs (245 yds/gm
and 32 TDs). Harrington has all the tools to be
successful, and while it's a risky proposition
trusting Joey, the matchup is simply too
tempting, especially if your other options
aren't all that appealing.
Byron Leftwich, JAC vs Sea
The Jags have a new offensive look this year
under offensive coordinator Carl Smith. Expect
them to spread the field more often and utilize
the shotgun more. That should make Leftwich more
comfortable and more productive. Reggie Williams
had a strong preseason and rookie Matt Jones
showed signs of being a big-play receiver to
give the Jags more weapons than just Jimmy Smith
for the first time since Keenan McCardell left
years ago. Seattle has a solid secondary on
paper, but they ranked 12th in fantasy pts
allowed to QBs in 2004 (238 yds/gm and 24 TDs).
If the Jags pass more and utilize their new
weapons better than last year, Leftwich promises
to get off to a good start this week.
Drew Brees, SD vs DAL
The Cowboys appear much improved defensively
over a year ago. Among the many new faces are
corners Anthony Henry and Aaron Glenn. Henry is
a big, physical corner with good instincts, but
he was also among the corners that were burnt
for the most long TDs, too. Brees shouldn't
really be considered much of a reach given that
he threw for almost 30 TDs last year, but he'll
be without TE Antonio Gates. Last year, the Boys
allowed the 8th most fantasy pts to opposing QBs
(230 yds/gm and 30 TDs). Brees is not a great
start, but he should be just fine.
Brian Griese, TB at MIN
This is a matchup where there's probably more
than meets the eye. The Vikings pass defense has
been abused consistently over the last several
years, but now they have a pair of solid corners
and an upgrade at safety with Pro Bowler Darren
Sharper. Also, consider the Bucs offensive line
is widely considered among the worst in the
league and the Vikings defensive line is perhaps
one of the more talented, young lines in the
league. Put it all together, and the matchup on
paper might not make sense. That said, the
Vikings allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to
opposing QBs with 258 yds/gm and 30 TDs. Griese
may put up solid numbers, but he will likely be
sacked a few times along the way and could be
prone to a couple turnovers as well.
A couple reaches..
Tim Rattay, SF vs StL
It's easy to knock Rattay. He couldn't stay
healthy last year. The 49ers offensive line was
awful and might not be a whole lot better this
year. He doesn't appear to have top flight
receivers, nor a running game to fear, but
something about him this year seems to
reminiscent of Drew Brees last year. He's played
very well during the preseason and maybe the
drafting of Alex Smith with the #1 overall pick
has lit a fire under him. The Rams pass rush is
solid, but their corners are suspect. They lost
Jerametrius Butler, one of their returning
starters, for the season. Rattay isn't a very
good start by any stretch of the imagination,
but he was productive in four of this first five
starts a year ago throwing multiple TDs in those
game. The Rams can score as well as most teams
in the league, so Rattay should be throwing
plenty. If he's your backup, and your starter
isn't strong and faces a tough matchup, maybe
you'll roll the dice on Rattay.
J.P. Losman, BUF vs Hou
It's almost never a good idea to run with an
unproven, inexperienced QB like Losman to start
the season. However, consider the matchup
against Houston. While the Texans added Phillip
Buchanon via trade in the off-season, the Texans
defense may still be quite vulnerable
considering they lack a proven pass rush. Losman
adds value with his running ability, too.
Houston allowed 32 TDs to opposing QBs last year
and 236 yds/gm - 7th most in the league in terms
of fantasy pts.
Running Backs
Willie Parker, PIT vs Ten
Bill Cowher named "fast" Willie Parker the
starter due to injuries to Duce Staley and
Jerome Bettis. Bettis was ruled out of Sunday's
game, but Staley still wants to contribute.
We'll see about that. Parker has big play
ability, as his moniker would indicate. Parker
will likely split carries on some level with
Verron Haynes, but is expected to start and
receive the majority of the touches for the
Steelers running attack. The Titans were average
(at best) against the run last year and the
Steelers have historically been one of the
league's most successful running teams. The key
factor here is opportunity. Parker has a great
opportunity to shine on Sunday and the match up
looks favorable.
Kevan Barlow, SF vs StL
Barlow has a lot to prove this year before the
fantasy world will take him seriously after his
underwhelming performance last year. At least he
has a good chance to get off to a good start
against a Rams defense that was near the bottom
of the league a year ago against the run. The
Rams allowed 136 yds/gm and 0.8 TDs/gm. They
have a new look amongst their LBs, but whether
or not they've improved is a big question mark.
Barlow should benefit from a slightly improved
offensive line. Tim Rattay starting as opposed
to an unproven rookie QB like Alex Smith should
also help. Barlow looks like a worthwhile RB2
this week.
Fred Taylor, JAC vs Sea
The biggest problem with Fred Taylor is the
unknown. Is he really 100%? Should we take his
comments at face value? "The season is here.
This is what I've worked hard for the entire
offseason. It's time to go. I'd like to start
off this season pretty fast,'' said Taylor. He
says he's ready to go full speed and the Jags HC
Jack Del Rio predicted Taylor will see 20
touches on Sunday. The Seahawks were average, or
even slightly below average, against the run
last year. They allowed 127 yds/gm and 1.1
TDs/gm on the ground. When healthy, it's hard
not to like Taylor, but keep in mind he's never
been a TD machine and he's frequently pulled on
third downs in favor of LaBrandon Toefield or
rookie Alvin Pearman.
They appear to be starting, but..
Reuben Droughns, CLE vs Cin
The toughest part of deciding whether to start
Droughns or not is knowing whether he's starting
for the Browns or not this Sunday. If you trust
the team's official depth chart, Droughns is
listed as the starter. He's performed well in
the preseason and looks like a decent play
against the Bengals. Lee Suggs remains hurt.
William Green will likely serve as the primary
backup, but to what extent? Therein lies the
rub. We have no track record for Droughns on a
team other than Denver - and we all know that
can be skewed. In addition, Romeo Crennel is a
new coach so how he utilizes his backs remains
to be seen. Green started the final preseason
game, but that could likely be discounted as
most team's won't show their hand during the
preseason. The one thing we know for sure is the
Bengals defense was not very good against the
run last year (129 yds/gm and 0.7 TDs/gm). Of
course, the Browns good at running the ball
either. Both teams have a different look in that
regard. The Bengals shored up the interior of
their defense in the off-season and the Browns
overhauled their offensive line. Droughns should
get at least half the team's touches and he'll
likely get quite a few more than half. As such,
he's a decent bet to produce solid if not
unspectacular numbers in the season opener.
Chris Brown, Ten at PIT
If there weren't questions regarding the role of
Chris Brown and Travis Henry, then Brown
wouldn't appear in this space. He's been among
the most productive backs in the NFL when
healthy. He averaged 4.8 yds/carry last year and
began the season with three 100-yard efforts in
his first three starts. The Titans offensive
line doesn't look as strong as last year and the
Steelers were the stingiest team in the league
last year against the run. The risk factor here
is two-fold. It's a bad match up on the road and
Travis Henry's role is unclear. Jeff Fisher
could spell Brown frequently and use Henry as a
third down back or, even more importantly, at
the goal line.
Stephen Davis or DeShaun Foster, CAR vs NO
The Panthers running game is anything but a
clear picture heading into Week One. Davis
returned from micro-fracture knee surgery and
took all the first team practice snaps during
the last week of the preseason. He started the
last preseason game and carried five times, but
whether or not the team is going to give him the
bulk of the carries in the season opener is wide
open for speculation. The Saints were one of the
three worst defenses against the run last year
allowing 141 yds/gm and 1 TDs/gm. The Panthers
have a strong backup in DeShaun Foster, so there
should be no surprise if both players get a
share of the workload rendering each one
somewhat useless from a fantasy perspective. The
game doesn't kick off until Monday night, if you
can wait that long to make a decision, great...
Otherwise, this is one where you'll be rolling
the dice either way.
A couple backups with a shot to be productive..
Chester Taylor, BAL vs Ind
Jamal Lewis is set to start the season opener
despite not getting much work under his belt in
the preseason. He carried just 6 times for 15
yards in the preseason as Chester Taylor handled
the bulk of the work and did a terrific job. The
Colts aren't exactly a physical defense in the
front seven. They allowed 127 yds/gm and 0.8
TDs/gm against the run a year ago. Taylor will
likely spell Lewis every few series and on third
downs. He's not a good start by any stretch of
the imagination, but if you're in dire straits
due to injury, Chester is a good gamble to get
you something, especially in PPR leagues.
Chris Perry, Cin at CLE
The Browns defense was abysmal against the run
last year allowing 145 yds/gm and 1.4 TDs/gm.
They were dead last in run defense. Meanwhile,
Perry was one of the standout players in the
Bengals preseason. He's emerged as a true dual
threat. He'll spell Rudi Johnson on third downs
and probably serve as a change of pace runner
potentially seeing the field as much as 35 to 40
percent of the Bengals offensive plays. Like
Chester Taylor, Perry is a player to start if
you want to salvage some points from your flex
or RB2 spot and you're short-handed due to
injuries.
Wide Receivers
Charles Rogers, DET vs GB
See Joey Harrington. While Roy Williams
continues to be the first Lions receiver to come
off the draft board, Rogers remains the team's
best deep threat and the one guy on the team who
can get behind defenses consistently. Now, if he
can just stay healthy for a full season. Rogers
looked great in the preseason. The shoulder is a
non-issue and he's ready to finally emerge in
his third season. Oh yeah, the Packers secondary
is horrible beyond Al Harris (who will likely be
covering Roy Williams, by the way). Rogers is an
excellent gamble if your lineup requires a flex
player or a 3rd/4th WR.
Justin McCareins, NYJ at KC
The Chiefs allowed more fantasy points to
opposing WRs than any other team a year ago (21
TDs and 172 yds/gm). They attempted to shore up
their secondary by acquiring former Dolphins CB
Patrick Surtain during the offseason. Surtain
will help, but look for the Jets to find Dexter
McCleon on the field and go after him early and
as often as possible. If the Chiefs try to keep
Surtain on Laveranues Coles that could mean more
targets for McCareins against the undersized
McCleon. The Jets offense hasn't looked
particularly sharp in the preseason though, and
Kansas City is one of the tougher places to play
on the road. Don't expect a lot, but if you like
to play the match ups, then McCareins looks like
a decent option as a WR3, or flex starter.
Reggie Williams, JAC vs Sea
Williams is leaner, quicker and appears to be on
the verge of finally becoming the playmaker the
team envisioned when they drafted him in the
first round last year. Plus, the Seahawks were
extremely generous to opposing receivers last
year allowing the 2nd most fantasy pts per game
(163 yds/gm and 22 TDs). Jimmy Smith looks like
he's finally slowing down after suffering a case
of the "drops" in the preseason. Maybe it's
Reggie's time to shine.
Greg Lewis, Phi at ATL
Terrell Owens will draw a lot of attention from
the Falcons defense and Greg Lewis is starting
opposite him. Lewis is good possession receiver
with great speed, quickness and soft hands.
Because the Falcons are forced to account for
Owens and RB Brian Westbrook, there's a good
chance that Lewis will be in a good position to
frequently make plays in single coverage. Lewis
is probably more valuable in leagues that score
points for receptions because the red zone looks
are more likely to go to Owens, Westbrook and TE
L.J. Smith.
Antwaan Randle-El, PIT vs Ten
The Titans have been one of the best passing
match ups for QBs and WRs for the past few
seasons. While they drafted PacMan Jones early
in the first round to help along those lines,
it's difficult to expect much from a rookie that
missed about half of training camp due to a
holdout. Randle-El won the battle for a starting
job against Cedrick Wilson in camp and was
productive starting in place of Plaxico Burress
last year. The Titans allowed 18 TDs and 171
yds/gm to opposing WRs last year. The Steelers
offense has been horrible in the preseason, so
take that with a grain of salt. If the Titans
pay more attention to #1 WR Hines Ward, then
Randle-El should benefit and might be the source
of some big plays on Sunday.
Joey Galloway, TB at MIN
Michael Clayton is the team's #1 WR, but let's
not forget about the venerable, but still speedy
Joey Galloway. The Vikings defense appears to be
improved on paper over last year, but combine
the Vikings offensive potential with the Bucs
tendency to throw more than they run - and
Galloway looks like a guy you could pencil in at
the bottom of your lineup and hope for big
numbers this week.
Kevin Curtis, StL at SF
The 49ers allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to
WRs a year ago (19 TDs and 169 yds/gm). The
49ers are trying to find guys who can cover
after moving Mike Rumph to free safety and
struggling to find anybody with a pulse to play
corner last year. The 49ers secondary is
healthier this year, but they still appear to be
quite vulnerable, especially when a talented
player like Curtis will be lining up against a
questionable nickel corner. It's always tough
starting a guy who doesn't even start on his own
team, but as No.3 receivers go, Curtis is among
the best. He's young, explosive and on on the
verge of becoming an every day play if the
opportunity presents itself.
David Givens, NE vs Oak
Starting one of the Patriots receivers or tight
ends is always an interesting dilemma. Tom Brady
is certainly among the league's best QBs and the
team has consistently put up solid passing
numbers over the past few years. Unfortunately,
trying to predict which one of these guys will
produce from week to week is enough to give you
a migraine headache. The Patriots spread the
ball around to all their players. One week it's
Deion Branch. The next week it's David Given,
and so on. Givens generally gets less hype than
Branch, but he's more consistent in the red zone
and he's a bigger target. The Raiders defense
remains very suspect even with a healthy Charles
Woodson.
Tight Ends
Ben Watson, NE vs Oak
Daniel Graham draws more attention, but Watson
is the guy to watch. He's got all the tools
necessary to be the next breakout fantasy tight
end. It doesn't hurt that he's facing a defense
that allowed 45 yds/gm and 12 TDs to opposing
TEs last year either.
Erron Kinney, Ten at PIT
With Ben Troupe still on the recovery path from
a broken foot, Kinney is unquestionably the
tight end on the Titans that bears watching.
Undrafted rookie Greg Guenther had a strong
showing in preseason, but it's questionable
whether or not he'll be targeted much now that
the games means something. Under Norm Chow the
Titans promise to utilize their tight ends
frequently, especially without much proven
talent at WR. Kinney is a solid receiver and a
good, undervalued fantasy tight end. Look for
him to be targeted more this week than several
of the tight ends ranked ahead of him. He's
among the better gambles out there this week.
Chris Baker, NYJ at KC
Surprisingly, Baker held off Doug Jolley for the
starting job. If he's able to seize the
opportunity in week one, he could be holding on
to it for bit longer, too. The Chiefs allowed
the 4th most fantasy pts to opposing tight ends
last year (8 TDs and 54 yds/gm) and new
offensive coordinator loves to feature his tight
ends in the passing game. Look for the Jets to
give Chad Pennington some confidence building
throws featuring safer, shorter routes and Baker
could be among the chief benefactors.
Deep sleepers
Alex Smith, TB at MIN
Yes, Anthony Becht is the starter and the
Vikings defense has improved vastly on paper
over last year. With that said, Smith is a super
sleeper and Gruden loves his rookie tight end.
Even though he didn't get a lot of targets in
the preseason, don't discount him. The Bucs love
to use their tight ends in the red zone and
Smith is capable of stretching the field and
finding a seam. Plus, the Bucs weren't going to
show too much in the preseason anyway, so maybe
they are holding Smith back for when the games
count.. On the downside, he is a rookie and
Becht is technically the starter, which is why
he's not a strong sleeper, but of the deep
sleeper variety. Oh yeh, the Vikings allowed the
6th most fantasy pts to TEs (40 yds/gm and 11
TDs), too.
Mike Seidman, CAR vs NO
The Saints secondary has been a problem for a
long time. A year ago, they allowed the 3rd most
fantasy points to opposing tight ends (52 yds/gm
and 8 TDs). Kris Mangum is the team's starter on
paper, but Seidman might be the more capable
player when it comes to catching passes. Against
the Saints, the Panthers could get their ground
game rolling drawing more attention in the red
zone and leaving either Mangum or Seidman open
for an easy score from Delhomme.
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