Over the years, I have heard or seen a lot of arguments from people that their favorite RB would be a fantasy monster if he just got the ball 20-30 times a game. That got me thinking . . . how often does a RB actually get that many carries, and who were the most productive RB in those situations? Do bruisers produce better than slashers? Who out there might be a hidden talent deserving of a role as a featured back? I researched every regular season game played over the past 5 years and compiled the data that I'm presenting here. Some of the results are not that surprising--we would all expect LT and Holmes to fare well. But other backs did a lot better than expected, and several others ranked fairly low.

RB PERFORMANCE IN REGULAR SEASON GAMES WITH 20+ CARRIES (1999 - 2003)
For RB active in 2003 (Minimum 10 games with 20+ carries)

KEY
20+ Gm = Number of games player had at least 20 carries in the past 5 seasons
20+% = % of 20+ carry games out of all games appeared in
DNP = Games missed for ANY reason out of games eligible to play in
Car = Average of carries per game in games of 20+ carries
Rush = Average of rushing yards per game in games of 20+ carries
Rec = Average of receiving yards per game in games of 20+ carries
TD = Number of TD scored per game in games of 20+ carries
YPC = Yards per carry in games of 20+ carries
PPG = Fantasy points per game based on 1 pt/10 yards rushing, 1 pt/10 yards receiving, 6 pts all TD

TOP 10 ANALYSIS

#1 Marshall Faulk: Paging Coach Martz. Give Marshall the ball more. Including the post season, the Rams have lost 27 games over the last 5 years. Faulk did not play in 4 of them. In the other 23 losses, Faulk reached 20 carries only once. The Rams record over that time when Marshall had 20+ carries: 25-1.

#2 Mike Anderson: Paging Coach Shanahan. Why are you looking at Bell, Griffin, Hearst, Galloway, Sapp, et al? Anderson should be your man. Eight 100 yard games in ten 20+ carry games, including a 251-yard, 4 TD performance. Ranked #1 in carries, rushing yards, and TD per game and at 6'0", 230 lbs, he can take the punishment. In 7 games, Garrison Hearst has averaged 16.71 PPG vs. 26.10 PPG for Anderson.

#3 Clinton Portis: Paging Coach Gibbs. Don't limit Portis to 15 carries a game as you have threatened. Fifteen 100-yard games in 16 outings of 20+ carries. Kansas City will be glad to be rid of Portis in their division after he scored 9 TD in two games against them.

#4 Priest Holmes: Not much to say that hasn't already been said. Ranked #1 in receiving yards, #8 in rushing yards, and #5 in TD out of this group.

#5 LaDainian Tomlinson: His overall totals are similar to Priest with fewer TD. Four 200-yard games certainly helped his cause. Back-to-back games with 140+ receiving yards never hurt either. One of the biggest threats in fantasy football for his versatility alone.

#6 Shaun Alexander: His total numbers are solid, but he certainly has had good games and bad games. Highlights included 266 rushing yards and 3 TD against Oakland and over 200 total yards and 5 TD against Minnesota in a half. Slightly better TD rate than Priest Holmes. And he has yet to miss a game.

#7 Ahman Green: Green was a great back before last year, but he exploded with nine 100-yard efforts in twelve 20+ carry games in 2003. Even though he has had an injury risk label, he has only missed 4 games in 5 years.

#8 Edgerrin James: Edge had the highest percentage of games with 20+ carries (72.3%), with only 3 other RB over 60%. And we wonder why he gets banged up all the time.

#9 Fred Taylor: The Top 7 guys have been relatively healthy. The last 3 of the Top 10 have all been injured and missed significant time. There is probably some correlation to the RB usage data here and time missed, although I have not identified one yet.

#10 Jamal Lewis: Had 13 games with 20+ carries last year on his way to Y2K (the trendy way to write 2,000 yards) and 11 of them were for 100+ yards. If there was ever a prime candidate for a fall in a follow-up season . . .

OTHER NOTABLE PLAYERS

Warrick Dunn: Gets no respect in the NFL or in fantasy circles. Ranked #14, ahead of Stephen Davis, Travis Henry, Curtis Martin, Eddie George, Tiki Barber, and some other more hyped RB. The fact remains that he produces when given a legitimate chance-to the tune of 18.26 PPG in 20+ carry games. By comparison, T.J. Duckett has averaged 12.33 PPG (in only 3 games).

Kevan Barlow: Of any RB that had at least one game of 20+ carries, Barlow averaged the highest: 30.00 PPG However, he has only had one game with 20+ carries. We'll have to see how he does as the clear #1 in San Francisco.

Charlie Garner: Did not have enough games to qualify (9 games) even playing in 78 games. If we drop the minimum game requirement to only 5 games, Rudi Johnson (#6), Dominic Rhodes (#7), and Charlie Garner (#10) make the Top 10 and Edge falls to #11.

Antowain Smith: Ranked #17 at 17.53 PPG Has ANY team shown an interest in signing him this offseason?

Emmitt Smith: His 20+ carry days are probably gone, but his more recent games with a lot of carries paled in comparison to when he was in his prime.

INJURY FACTOR

The Top 40 RB from 2003 missed an average of 2.07 games per year (for whatever reason) over the previous 5 seasons. Surprisingly, the 28 RB that had 10 or more games of 20+ carries missed an average of 1.94 games per year.

2004 RUNNING BACK BATTLES