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Coaching Carousel 2004 - Analyzing the changes around the league
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Posted 5/23 by Jason Wood - Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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One of the most important occurrences every offseason is the coaching carousel.
While some hires (e.g., Joe Gibbs) get tons of press, many of the changes, particularly
at the coordinator level, go under the radar of the typical fantasy footballer.
That's a mistake, because a coach's ability and as importantly, his philosophy,
play a HUGE role in the performance of the team's players.
This offseason, seven teams ushered in new head coaches, and another four teams
changed offensive coordinators. What that means is that more than a 1/3 of the
league will have someone new managing their offensive game plans.
Now, some might say that good coaches build teams around the strength of the
personnel on hand. While this is true in theory, it stands to reason that someone
who has risen to the ranks of NFL top brass is confident in his own ability
to craft a scheme, and as a result you'll often notice trends in a coach's play
calling that are worth noting, regardless of personnel. Is a coach willing to
adapt? Few question the offensive acumen of Steve Spurrier, but his inability
to adjust to the Redskins personnel and NFL defensive schemes resulted in woefully
disappointing offensive production while he was coaching the team. Meanwhile,
someone like Bill Parcells has shown a willingness to emphasize the run or the
pass depending on the fit of his personnel.
Below we take a look at the major coaching changes in the NFL this offseason.
For each team, we posted the offensive statistics of the coaches' prior NFL
stints as head coach and offensive coordinator. In the event the head coach
is a defensive mind, we have listed the offensive coordinators history as head
coach (if applicable) and coordinator.
It's difficult to draw hard and fast conclusions from looking at a coach's
past stops. Some coaches will have learned from past mistakes, others will build
off past successes. And certainly with new teams bring new players, which in
and of itself is the biggest variable in the equation. Nevertheless, at Footballguys
we believe the best owners are the most informed, and overlooking coaching changes
would be a mistake.
Arizona Cardinals
- Head Coach - Dennis Green; Minnesota Vikings head coach for
ten seasons (1992-2001), 49ers assistant under Bill Walsh, Stanford University
head coach
- Offensive Coordinator - Alex Wood; served as Denny Green's
QB coach in Minnesota and was the WR coach in Cincinnati last season, notable
given the success of Chad Johnson and Peter Warrick
- Defensive Coordinator - Clancy Pendergast; Pendergast has
been an NFL assistant for nine seasons, most recently (2003) as the linebackers
coach in Cleveland. Most of his career was spent with the Cowboys, having
served as the secondary coach from 2001-2002
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Dennis Green
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Rushing
|
Passing
|
|
Year
|
Team
|
TotPts
|
TotYds
|
Run%
|
Pass%
|
Att
|
Yds
|
YPR
|
TDs
|
Com
|
Atts
|
Yds
|
YPA
|
TDs
|
INTs
|
|
1986
|
SF
|
374
|
6,285
|
47%
|
53%
|
510
|
1,986
|
3.89
|
16
|
353
|
582
|
4,299
|
7.4
|
21
|
20
|
|
1987
|
SF
|
459
|
6,192
|
51%
|
49%
|
524
|
2,237
|
4.27
|
11
|
322
|
501
|
3,955
|
7.9
|
44
|
14
|
|
1992
|
Min
|
374
|
5,192
|
52%
|
48%
|
497
|
2,030
|
4.08
|
19
|
258
|
458
|
3,162
|
6.9
|
18
|
15
|
|
1993
|
Min
|
277
|
5,005
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46%
|
54%
|
447
|
1,624
|
3.63
|
8
|
315
|
526
|
3,381
|
6.4
|
18
|
14
|
|
1994
|
Min
|
356
|
6,094
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38%
|
62%
|
419
|
1,524
|
3.64
|
11
|
409
|
673
|
4,570
|
6.8
|
18
|
20
|
|
1995
|
Min
|
412
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6,233
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40%
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60%
|
433
|
1,733
|
4.00
|
10
|
402
|
642
|
4,500
|
7.0
|
33
|
16
|
|
1996
|
Min
|
298
|
5,445
|
44%
|
56%
|
435
|
1,546
|
3.55
|
7
|
331
|
561
|
3,899
|
7.0
|
24
|
19
|
|
1997
|
Min
|
354
|
5,578
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45%
|
55%
|
449
|
2,041
|
4.55
|
14
|
319
|
540
|
3,537
|
6.6
|
26
|
16
|
|
1998
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Min
|
556
|
6,428
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46%
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54%
|
450
|
1,936
|
4.30
|
17
|
327
|
533
|
4,492
|
8.4
|
41
|
16
|
|
1999
|
Min
|
399
|
6,122
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44%
|
56%
|
422
|
1,804
|
4.27
|
13
|
316
|
530
|
4,318
|
8.1
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32
|
21
|
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2000
|
Min
|
397
|
6,148
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46%
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54%
|
428
|
2,129
|
4.97
|
14
|
307
|
495
|
4,019
|
8.1
|
33
|
18
|
|
2001
|
Min
|
290
|
5,463
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40%
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60%
|
376
|
1,609
|
4.28
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10
|
335
|
555
|
3,854
|
6.9
|
23
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23
|
|
Avg
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379
|
5,849
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45%
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55%
|
449
|
1,850
|
4.12
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13
|
333
|
550
|
3,999
|
7.3
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28
|
18
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Max
|
556
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6,428
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52%
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62%
|
524
|
2,237
|
4.97
|
19
|
409
|
673
|
4,570
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8.4
|
44
|
23
|
|
Min
|
277
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5,005
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38%
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48%
|
376
|
1,524
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3.55
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7
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258
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458
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3,162
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6.4
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18
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14
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FANTASY IMPACT
It's no secret that Dennis Green is a proponent of an aggressive passing attack,
which stems from his time learning the nuances of offensive football under Bill
Walsh. Green's offensive teams have thrown at least 20 touchdowns nine times,
and he's averaged a whopping 28 touchdowns per season. As impressively, in all
but one season, his quarterbacks have thrown more TDs than INTsThe fact that
Green has been able to forge such productive offenses with a revolving door
of quarterbacks is both a testament to his abilities and, as importantly, reason
to believe that Josh McCown may be a sleeper this year for the Cardinals.
Despite being a proponent of wide open passing attacks, over his career, Green's
run/pass ratio has equaled the league averages of 45% rush/55% pass; which shows
that Green, like all good coaches, is capable of recognizing and building around
his offensive weapons on hand.
Looking ahead, Dennis Green inherits a team largely unproven with the exception
of Anquan Boldin, who enjoyed one of the most productive rookie seasons by a
receiver in NFL history. With the presence of Larry Fitzgerald, Boldin and Bryant
Johnson, one can assume that Green will look to pass the ball more than he runs
the ball - unless Marcel Shipp is a lot better than we've been lead to believe
at this stage of his career.
While his coordinators are relative unknowns, Alex Wood's work with Minnesota's
QBs (Cunningham, Culpepper) and his work last season with Peter Warrick and
Chad Johnson, both breakout fantasy receivers, makes for an intriguing situation
in Arizona. Unfortunately for Cardinals fans, Green has never put much emphasis
on defense, and Clancy Pendergast isn't going to be confused for a defensive
guru anytime soon. Given how poor the defensive roster is entering this offseason,
it wouldn't be out of line to assume Green will have the Cards a much better
fantasy team long before they're a better NFL team.
Atlanta Falcons
- Head Coach - Jim Mora; Mora spent the last seven years as
a San Francisco assistant coach, serving as defensive coordinator from 1999-2003.
Mora also served as the secondary coach in New Orleans (1992-1996) and San
Diego (1989-1992)
- Offensive Coordinator - Greg Knapp; spent the last nine years
with San Francisco, and was the team's offensive coordinator for the last
three seasons. He also served as the team's quarterbacks' coach for the three
years prior
- Defensive Coordinator - Ed Donatell; was hired after being
unceremoniously fired from the same position in Green Bay, following a haunting
playoff loss in Philadelphia (4th and 26). Donatell served as the Packers
DC for four seasons. Prior to that he oversaw the defensive backs in Denver,
serving in that capacity during the team's Super Bowl wins
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Greg Knapp
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Rushing
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Passing
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Year
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Team
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TotPts
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TotYds
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Run%
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Pass%
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Att
|
Yds
|
YPR
|
TDs
|
Com
|
Atts
|
Yds
|
YPA
|
TDs
|
INTs
|
|
2001
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SF
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409
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5,803
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50%
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50%
|
509
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2,244
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4.41
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16
|
318
|
506
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3,559
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7.0
|
32
|
12
|
|
2002
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SF
|
367
|
5,820
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46%
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54%
|
489
|
2,244
|
4.59
|
16
|
354
|
571
|
3,576
|
6.3
|
23
|
10
|
|
2003
|
SF
|
384
|
5,845
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49%
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51%
|
499
|
2,279
|
4.57
|
16
|
299
|
510
|
3,566
|
7.0
|
25
|
15
|
|
Avg
|
387
|
5,823
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49%
|
51%
|
499
|
2,256
|
4.52
|
16
|
324
|
529
|
3,567
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6.8
|
27
|
12
|
|
Max
|
409
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5,845
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50%
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54%
|
509
|
2,279
|
4.59
|
16
|
354
|
571
|
3,576
|
7.0
|
32
|
15
|
|
Min
|
367
|
5,803
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46%
|
50%
|
489
|
2,244
|
4.41
|
16
|
299
|
506
|
3,559
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6.3
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23
|
10
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FANTASY IMPACT
Jim Mora is a defensive coach and will focus his attention, along with Ed Donatell,
on improving a defense that finished 32nd (dead last) against the pass and 29th
against the rush last year. Mora has entrusted the Falcons offense to Greg Knapp,
his longtime associate in San Francisco. Knapp's primary job is simple; create
schemes that allow Mike Vick to produce.
Knapp was a coordinator for the last three seasons; which doesn't give us much
to go on but several facts stand out. One, Knapp is committed to running the
ball. In all three seasons, the 49ers rushed for more than 2,200 yards as a
team, averaged better than 4.4 yards per carry and scored 16 touchdowns. That
bodes well for a team with three dangerous runners in Vick, T.J. Duckett and
Warrick Dunn. While we don't know if Knapp's able to adjust his play calling
to fit the team's needs, since he had virtually the same offensive unit in San
Francisco each season, we do know that his propensity to favor the run bodes
well for the mobile Vick, particularly in that it's clear Vick won't be asked
to shoulder the load by dropping back to pass 30 times a game.
It's unreasonable to expect the Falcons first season under Knapp to produce
the 3,500+ yards passing his team's have averaged when Jeff Garcia was quarterbacking,
but don't be surprised to see the team produces a yards per attempt greater
than 7.0 and more touchdowns than interceptions; aided by Vick's strong arm
and the speedy receiving corps of Peerless Price and Michael Jenkins.
Buffalo Bills
- Head Coach - Mike Mularkey; just 42 years old, becomes one
of the youngest head coaches in the league after spending the last three years
as the Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator
- Offensive Coordinator - Tom Clements; Clements joins Mularkey
in Buffalo after serving under him as the quarterbacks' coach in Pittsburgh.
Clements is widely credited with putting together systems to get the most
out of Kordell Stewart and Tommy Maddox, players thought to be limited in
their abilities
- Defensive Coordinator - Jerry Gray; in somewhat of a coup,
Jerry Gray remains with the team as defensive coordinator, the same position
he held the last three seasons under Gregg Williams
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Mike Mularkey
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Rushing
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Passing
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|
Year
|
Team
|
TotPts
|
TotYds
|
Run%
|
Pass%
|
Att
|
Yds
|
YPR
|
TDs
|
Com
|
Atts
|
Yds
|
YPA
|
TDs
|
INTs
|
|
2001
|
Pit
|
352
|
6,069
|
56%
|
44%
|
580
|
2,774
|
4.78
|
17
|
274
|
454
|
3,295
|
7.3
|
16
|
12
|
|
2002
|
Pit
|
390
|
6,156
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48%
|
52%
|
512
|
2,120
|
4.14
|
15
|
350
|
551
|
4,036
|
7.3
|
26
|
22
|
|
2003
|
Pit
|
300
|
5,036
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46%
|
54%
|
446
|
1,488
|
3.34
|
10
|
306
|
533
|
3,548
|
6.7
|
19
|
17
|
|
Avg
|
347
|
5,754
|
50%
|
50%
|
513
|
2,127
|
4.09
|
14
|
310
|
513
|
3,626
|
7.1
|
20
|
17
|
|
Max
|
390
|
6,156
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56%
|
54%
|
580
|
2,774
|
4.78
|
17
|
350
|
551
|
4,036
|
7.3
|
26
|
22
|
|
Min
|
300
|
5,036
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46%
|
44%
|
446
|
1,488
|
3.34
|
10
|
274
|
454
|
3,295
|
6.7
|
16
|
12
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FANTASY IMPACT
Like Knapp, Mularkey served as an offensive coordinator for the last three
seasons. It's difficult to get a read on what Mularkey will do in Buffalo from
his stint in Pittsburgh, because he was admittedly handcuffed somewhat by a
conservative head coach to some degree with the Steelers. In fact, looking at
Mularkey's three years as Pittsburgh OC, more questions arise than answers.
A team defined by smash mouth football saw its rushing attack dwindle from
2,774 yards in 2001 to just 1,488 yards in 2003. In addition, the team's
attempts, yards per attempt and touchdowns also declined each season under Mularkey's
watch. Yet, the passing game largely didn't compensate for the downturn
in rushing output. There's no question that some the blame falls on the team's
offensive line and running back situations, but one has to wonder then why Pittsburgh
named o-line coach Russ Grimm an assistant head coach this offseason.
Mularkey has promised a balanced attack with the Bills, and the personnel
appears suited for such a balance (Buffalo was overly pass heavy the last few
seasons) given Bledsoe's age, and the presence of not one but two very talented
running backs in Travis Henry and Willis McGahee. Mularkey's offensive coordinator
Tom Clements, who coached the Steelers quarterbacks, will have two main duties
this year: 1) Reinvigorating Drew Bledsoe after a horrible 2003 and 2) Mentoring
first round draft choice J.P. Losman as the Bills eventual successor at quarterback.
One final offensive coaching note, the team also brought in Jim McNally as offensive
line coach, who worked miracles in New York.
Look for Mularkey and company to rebuild the offensive line to allow more protection
for Drew Bledsoe, who can still make plays in the pocket, if protected. The
team is also sure to strike a better balance between running and passing, making
more liberal use of Travis Henry and Willis McGahee. The receiving corps won't
be forgotten about either, and the trio of Moulds/Evans Reed will do their best
impersonation of Ward/Burress/Randle El this season.
The scheme that powered the 2nd ranked defense in the NFL will stay the same,
with Jerry Gray remaining as the team's defensive coordinator.
Chicago Bears
- Head Coach - Lovie Smith; Smith spent the last three seasons
as the defensive coordinator under Mike Martz in St. Louis. Smith was the
Tampa Bay Bucs linebackers' coach for five seasons prior to taking the Rams
job
- Offensive Coordinator - Terry Shea; Terry Shea has learned
from two of the best offensive minds in league history: Bill Walsh and Dick
Vermeil. Most recently Shea served as QB coach in Kansas City, but has also
had positions with Walsh at Stanford and as the head coach for Rutgers University
- Defensive Coordinator - Ron Rivera; Rivera gets his first
coordinator job in the town where he made a name as a player. Rivera is a
local Chicago favorite, who cut his teeth as the Eagles linebackers coach
under Andy Reid
FANTASY IMPACT
Offensively, this all comes down to Terry Shea. Lovie is a defensive guy,
and he handpicked Shea to run this offense. Is he up to the task? We just
don't know, but he is about as well schooled in the passing game as you could
ask for, and that bodes well conceptually for Rex Grossman's development. Defensively
you can bet on one thing, the team will make the linebackers the focal point
of the scheme. Lovie prefers to run a cover-2, whereas Rivera has experience
using aggressive zone blitz schemes; how much of each system is implemented
probably comes down to evaluating the defensive talent on the roster.
No coach on the Bears staff has experience calling plays in the NFL.
This is a surefire endorsement that, no matter how promising the young coaching
staff may be longer term, there will be significant growing pains this year.
Combine the coaches' inexperience with a reshuffled offensive line, a new starting
quarterback and unproven receivers, and this is a team that shouldn't be expected
to produce at a high level out of the gate.
New York Giants
- Head Coach - Tom Coughlin; Coughlin takes over for Jim Fassel
in New York in an unmistakable move to add toughness and discipline to the
veteran team. Coughlin had a long stint as the Jacksonville Jaguars head coach,
and aside from being a noted disciplinarian has a long history as an offensive
coach, including serving under Bill Parcells for three seasons in New York
- Offensive Coordinator - John Hufnagel; Coughlin selected John
Hufnagel, the Patriots QB coach in 2003, shortly after the Patriots won the
Super Bowl. Hufnagel will be responsible for grooming Eli Manning much in
the way he worked with Tom Brady in New England
- Defensive Coordinator - Tim Lewis; Tim Lewis joins the Giants
staff after being let go by Bill Cowher in Pittsburgh. Lewis served as the
Steelers defensive coordinator for the last few years, and is best known for
his blitzing style, using linebackers to pressure the QB
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Tom Coughlin
|
Rushing
|
Passing
|
|
Year
|
Team
|
TotPts
|
TotYds
|
Run%
|
Pass%
|
Att
|
Yds
|
YPR
|
TDs
|
Com
|
Atts
|
Yds
|
YPA
|
TDs
|
INTs
|
|
1995
|
Jac
|
275
|
4,849
|
45%
|
55%
|
410
|
1,705
|
4.16
|
9
|
275
|
495
|
3,144
|
6.4
|
19
|
15
|
|
1996
|
Jac
|
325
|
6,017
|
44%
|
56%
|
431
|
1,650
|
3.83
|
13
|
353
|
557
|
4,367
|
7.8
|
19
|
20
|
|
1997
|
Jac
|
394
|
5,642
|
47%
|
53%
|
454
|
1,720
|
3.79
|
20
|
313
|
504
|
3,922
|
7.8
|
20
|
9
|
|
1998
|
Jac
|
392
|
5,445
|
51%
|
49%
|
487
|
2,102
|
4.32
|
19
|
269
|
463
|
3,343
|
7.2
|
24
|
12
|
|
1999
|
Jac
|
396
|
5,807
|
49%
|
51%
|
514
|
2,091
|
4.07
|
20
|
320
|
535
|
3,716
|
6.9
|
16
|
11
|
|
2000
|
Jac
|
367
|
5,979
|
47%
|
53%
|
481
|
2,032
|
4.22
|
18
|
333
|
545
|
3,947
|
7.2
|
22
|
15
|
|
2001
|
Jac
|
294
|
5,270
|
41%
|
59%
|
372
|
1,600
|
4.30
|
11
|
321
|
534
|
3,670
|
6.9
|
20
|
14
|
|
2002
|
Jac
|
367
|
5,979
|
47%
|
53%
|
481
|
2,032
|
4.22
|
18
|
333
|
545
|
3,947
|
7.2
|
22
|
15
|
|
Avg
|
351
|
5,624
|
46%
|
54%
|
454
|
1,867
|
4.11
|
16
|
315
|
522
|
3,757
|
7.2
|
20
|
14
|
|
Max
|
396
|
6,017
|
51%
|
59%
|
514
|
2,102
|
4.32
|
20
|
353
|
557
|
4,367
|
7.8
|
24
|
20
|
|
Min
|
275
|
4,849
|
41%
|
49%
|
372
|
1,600
|
3.79
|
9
|
269
|
463
|
3,144
|
6.4
|
16
|
9
|
FANTASY IMPACT
Tom Coughlin joins the Giants under similar circumstances to when he took over
the expansion Jaguars. While the Giants have a cadre of proven veterans, the
team appears committed to rebuilding around Eli Manning. Rookie quarterbacks
struggle, but you can be sure that Coughlin will install an efficient passing
offense. Coughlin's teams threw more TDs than INTs in all but one season. Recall
the success that Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell enjoyed under Coughlin; which
projects well for Amani Toomer, the Giants most talented and reliable pass catcher.
In looking over Coughlin's body of work, you see that his teams have never
been horrible offensively; which again is a testament to his focus on minimizing
turnovers and playing disciplined football. In contrast, his teams have never
had a high yards per carry (odd given the presence of Fred Taylor in Jacksonville).
While we're fans of Tiki Barber, it's unclear how he'll fit into Coughlin's
offense and must not turn the ball over as he did in 2003; Coughlin's autocratic
style won't tolerate turnovers of any kind.
Although it's not shown in the data, Coughlin has historically favored a goal
line back. If Coughlin installs holdover Ron Dayne (or perhaps brings in a veteran
such as Stacey Mack), that would negatively impact the fantasy value of Tiki
Barber.
On the defensive front, the Giants are sure to blitz quite a bit more under
Lewis, known for using aggressive blitz schemes, particularly with his linebackers.
Oakland Raiders
- Head Coach - Norv Turner; Norv Turner apparently wanted so
desperately to be an NFL head coach again that he took a job most coordinators
had the foresight to turn down. Turner accepted a five-year deal to coach
the Raiders and brings with him years of experience running the offenses in
Dallas, San Diego, Miami and Washington (where he was also the head coach)
- Offensive Coordinator - Jimmy Raye; Jimmy Raye, a Jets assistant
the last two seasons, has been an offensive coordinator three times previously,
and has coached for ten teams in his career. Raye is a fellow proponent of
the vertical passing game set up by power running, similar to Turner's modus
operandi
- Defensive Coordinator - Rob Ryan; Rob Ryan, the son of defensive
guru Bubby Ryan, spent the last four years coaching linebackers for the New
England Patriots. Ryan got his start in the NFL as a secondary coach under
his father in Arizona. He's also served as the coordinator at Oklahoma State
|
Norv Turner
|
Rushing
|
Passing
|
|
Year
|
Team
|
TotPts
|
TotYds
|
Run%
|
Pass%
|
Att
|
Yds
|
YPR
|
TDs
|
Com
|
Atts
|
Yds
|
YPA
|
TDs
|
INTs
|
|
1991
|
Dal
|
342
|
5,374
|
46%
|
54%
|
433
|
1,711
|
3.95
|
15
|
305
|
500
|
3,663
|
7.3
|
16
|
12
|
|
1992
|
Dal
|
409
|
5,718
|
50%
|
50%
|
500
|
2,121
|
4.24
|
20
|
314
|
491
|
3,597
|
7.3
|
23
|
15
|
|
1993
|
Dal
|
376
|
5,778
|
51%
|
49%
|
490
|
2,161
|
4.41
|
20
|
317
|
475
|
3,617
|
7.6
|
18
|
6
|
|
1994
|
Was
|
320
|
4,939
|
43%
|
57%
|
407
|
1,415
|
3.48
|
5
|
271
|
546
|
3,524
|
6.5
|
25
|
27
|
|
1995
|
Was
|
326
|
5,452
|
47%
|
53%
|
469
|
1,956
|
4.17
|
15
|
265
|
521
|
3,496
|
6.7
|
16
|
20
|
|
1996
|
Was
|
364
|
5,363
|
50%
|
50%
|
467
|
1,910
|
4.09
|
27
|
270
|
471
|
3,453
|
7.3
|
12
|
11
|
|
1997
|
Was
|
327
|
5,196
|
45%
|
55%
|
453
|
1,615
|
3.57
|
12
|
283
|
547
|
3,581
|
6.5
|
22
|
22
|
|
1998
|
Was
|
319
|
5,409
|
42%
|
58%
|
401
|
1,685
|
4.20
|
15
|
304
|
565
|
3,724
|
6.6
|
24
|
14
|
|
1999
|
Was
|
443
|
6,151
|
46%
|
54%
|
463
|
2,039
|
4.40
|
23
|
324
|
537
|
4,112
|
7.7
|
26
|
14
|
|
2000
|
Was
|
281
|
5,640
|
44%
|
56%
|
446
|
1,748
|
3.92
|
14
|
342
|
560
|
3,892
|
7.0
|
18
|
21
|
|
2001
|
SD
|
332
|
5,380
|
44%
|
56%
|
435
|
1,695
|
3.90
|
13
|
309
|
548
|
3,685
|
6.7
|
16
|
18
|
|
2002
|
Mia
|
378
|
5,571
|
54%
|
| |