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Coaching Carousel 2004 - Analyzing the changes around the league

One of the most important occurrences every offseason is the coaching carousel. While some hires (e.g., Joe Gibbs) get tons of press, many of the changes, particularly at the coordinator level, go under the radar of the typical fantasy footballer. That's a mistake, because a coach's ability and as importantly, his philosophy, play a HUGE role in the performance of the team's players.

This offseason, seven teams ushered in new head coaches, and another four teams changed offensive coordinators. What that means is that more than a 1/3 of the league will have someone new managing their offensive game plans.

Now, some might say that good coaches build teams around the strength of the personnel on hand. While this is true in theory, it stands to reason that someone who has risen to the ranks of NFL top brass is confident in his own ability to craft a scheme, and as a result you'll often notice trends in a coach's play calling that are worth noting, regardless of personnel. Is a coach willing to adapt? Few question the offensive acumen of Steve Spurrier, but his inability to adjust to the Redskins personnel and NFL defensive schemes resulted in woefully disappointing offensive production while he was coaching the team. Meanwhile, someone like Bill Parcells has shown a willingness to emphasize the run or the pass depending on the fit of his personnel.

Below we take a look at the major coaching changes in the NFL this offseason. For each team, we posted the offensive statistics of the coaches' prior NFL stints as head coach and offensive coordinator. In the event the head coach is a defensive mind, we have listed the offensive coordinators history as head coach (if applicable) and coordinator.

It's difficult to draw hard and fast conclusions from looking at a coach's past stops. Some coaches will have learned from past mistakes, others will build off past successes. And certainly with new teams bring new players, which in and of itself is the biggest variable in the equation. Nevertheless, at Footballguys we believe the best owners are the most informed, and overlooking coaching changes would be a mistake.


Arizona Cardinals

  • Head Coach - Dennis Green; Minnesota Vikings head coach for ten seasons (1992-2001), 49ers assistant under Bill Walsh, Stanford University head coach


  • Offensive Coordinator - Alex Wood; served as Denny Green's QB coach in Minnesota and was the WR coach in Cincinnati last season, notable given the success of Chad Johnson and Peter Warrick


  • Defensive Coordinator - Clancy Pendergast; Pendergast has been an NFL assistant for nine seasons, most recently (2003) as the linebackers coach in Cleveland. Most of his career was spent with the Cowboys, having served as the secondary coach from 2001-2002


Dennis Green
Rushing
Passing
Year
Team
TotPts
 TotYds 
 Run% 
 Pass% 
Att
 Yds 
 YPR 
TDs
Com
Atts
 Yds 
YPA
TDs
INTs
1986
SF
374
    6,285
47%
53%
510
 1,986
 3.89
16
353
582
 4,299
 7.4
21
20
1987
SF
459
    6,192
51%
49%
524
 2,237
 4.27
11
322
501
 3,955
 7.9
44
14
1992
Min
374
    5,192
52%
48%
497
 2,030
 4.08
19
258
458
 3,162
 6.9
18
15
1993
Min
277
    5,005
46%
54%
447
 1,624
 3.63
8
315
526
 3,381
 6.4
18
14
1994
Min
356
    6,094
38%
62%
419
 1,524
 3.64
11
409
673
 4,570
 6.8
18
20
1995
Min
412
    6,233
40%
60%
433
 1,733
 4.00
10
402
642
 4,500
 7.0
33
16
1996
Min
298
    5,445
44%
56%
435
 1,546
 3.55
7
331
561
 3,899
 7.0
24
19
1997
Min
354
    5,578
45%
55%
449
 2,041
 4.55
14
319
540
 3,537
 6.6
26
16
1998
Min
556
    6,428
46%
54%
450
 1,936
 4.30
17
327
533
 4,492
 8.4
41
16
1999
Min
399
    6,122
44%
56%
422
 1,804
 4.27
13
316
530
 4,318
 8.1
32
21
2000
Min
397
    6,148
46%
54%
428
 2,129
 4.97
14
307
495
 4,019
 8.1
33
18
2001
Min
290
    5,463
40%
60%
376
 1,609
 4.28
10
335
555
 3,854
 6.9
23
23
Avg
379
    5,849
45%
55%
449
 1,850
 4.12
13
333
550
 3,999
 7.3
28
18
Max
556
    6,428
52%
62%
524
 2,237
 4.97
19
409
673
 4,570
 8.4
44
23
Min
277
    5,005
38%
48%
376
 1,524
 3.55
7
258
458
 3,162
 6.4
18
14

FANTASY IMPACT

It's no secret that Dennis Green is a proponent of an aggressive passing attack, which stems from his time learning the nuances of offensive football under Bill Walsh. Green's offensive teams have thrown at least 20 touchdowns nine times, and he's averaged a whopping 28 touchdowns per season. As impressively, in all but one season, his quarterbacks have thrown more TDs than INTsThe fact that Green has been able to forge such productive offenses with a revolving door of quarterbacks is both a testament to his abilities and, as importantly, reason to believe that Josh McCown may be a sleeper this year for the Cardinals.

Despite being a proponent of wide open passing attacks, over his career, Green's run/pass ratio has equaled the league averages of 45% rush/55% pass; which shows that Green, like all good coaches, is capable of recognizing and building around his offensive weapons on hand.

Looking ahead, Dennis Green inherits a team largely unproven with the exception of Anquan Boldin, who enjoyed one of the most productive rookie seasons by a receiver in NFL history. With the presence of Larry Fitzgerald, Boldin and Bryant Johnson, one can assume that Green will look to pass the ball more than he runs the ball - unless Marcel Shipp is a lot better than we've been lead to believe at this stage of his career.

While his coordinators are relative unknowns, Alex Wood's work with Minnesota's QBs (Cunningham, Culpepper) and his work last season with Peter Warrick and Chad Johnson, both breakout fantasy receivers, makes for an intriguing situation in Arizona. Unfortunately for Cardinals fans, Green has never put much emphasis on defense, and Clancy Pendergast isn't going to be confused for a defensive guru anytime soon. Given how poor the defensive roster is entering this offseason, it wouldn't be out of line to assume Green will have the Cards a much better fantasy team long before they're a better NFL team.


Atlanta Falcons

  • Head Coach - Jim Mora; Mora spent the last seven years as a San Francisco assistant coach, serving as defensive coordinator from 1999-2003. Mora also served as the secondary coach in New Orleans (1992-1996) and San Diego (1989-1992)


  • Offensive Coordinator - Greg Knapp; spent the last nine years with San Francisco, and was the team's offensive coordinator for the last three seasons. He also served as the team's quarterbacks' coach for the three years prior


  • Defensive Coordinator - Ed Donatell; was hired after being unceremoniously fired from the same position in Green Bay, following a haunting playoff loss in Philadelphia (4th and 26). Donatell served as the Packers DC for four seasons. Prior to that he oversaw the defensive backs in Denver, serving in that capacity during the team's Super Bowl wins


Greg Knapp
Rushing
Passing
Year
Team
TotPts
 TotYds 
 Run% 
 Pass% 
Att
 Yds 
 YPR 
TDs
Com
Atts
 Yds 
YPA
TDs
INTs
2001
SF
409
    5,803
50%
50%
509
 2,244
 4.41
16
318
506
 3,559
 7.0
32
12
2002
SF
367
    5,820
46%
54%
489
 2,244
 4.59
16
354
571
 3,576
 6.3
23
10
2003
SF
384
    5,845
49%
51%
499
 2,279
 4.57
16
299
510
 3,566
 7.0
25
15
Avg
387
    5,823
49%
51%
499
 2,256
 4.52
16
324
529
 3,567
 6.8
27
12
Max
409
    5,845
50%
54%
509
 2,279
 4.59
16
354
571
 3,576
 7.0
32
15
Min
367
    5,803
46%
50%
489
 2,244
 4.41
16
299
506
 3,559
 6.3
23
10

FANTASY IMPACT

Jim Mora is a defensive coach and will focus his attention, along with Ed Donatell, on improving a defense that finished 32nd (dead last) against the pass and 29th against the rush last year. Mora has entrusted the Falcons offense to Greg Knapp, his longtime associate in San Francisco. Knapp's primary job is simple; create schemes that allow Mike Vick to produce.

Knapp was a coordinator for the last three seasons; which doesn't give us much to go on but several facts stand out. One, Knapp is committed to running the ball. In all three seasons, the 49ers rushed for more than 2,200 yards as a team, averaged better than 4.4 yards per carry and scored 16 touchdowns. That bodes well for a team with three dangerous runners in Vick, T.J. Duckett and Warrick Dunn. While we don't know if Knapp's able to adjust his play calling to fit the team's needs, since he had virtually the same offensive unit in San Francisco each season, we do know that his propensity to favor the run bodes well for the mobile Vick, particularly in that it's clear Vick won't be asked to shoulder the load by dropping back to pass 30 times a game.

It's unreasonable to expect the Falcons first season under Knapp to produce the 3,500+ yards passing his team's have averaged when Jeff Garcia was quarterbacking, but don't be surprised to see the team produces a yards per attempt greater than 7.0 and more touchdowns than interceptions; aided by Vick's strong arm and the speedy receiving corps of Peerless Price and Michael Jenkins.


Buffalo Bills

  • Head Coach - Mike Mularkey; just 42 years old, becomes one of the youngest head coaches in the league after spending the last three years as the Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator


  • Offensive Coordinator - Tom Clements; Clements joins Mularkey in Buffalo after serving under him as the quarterbacks' coach in Pittsburgh. Clements is widely credited with putting together systems to get the most out of Kordell Stewart and Tommy Maddox, players thought to be limited in their abilities


  • Defensive Coordinator - Jerry Gray; in somewhat of a coup, Jerry Gray remains with the team as defensive coordinator, the same position he held the last three seasons under Gregg Williams


Mike Mularkey
Rushing
Passing
Year
Team
TotPts
 TotYds 
 Run% 
 Pass% 
Att
 Yds 
 YPR 
TDs
Com
Atts
 Yds 
YPA
TDs
INTs
2001
Pit
352
    6,069
56%
44%
580
 2,774
 4.78
17
274
454
 3,295
 7.3
16
12
2002
Pit
390
    6,156
48%
52%
512
 2,120
 4.14
15
350
551
 4,036
 7.3
26
22
2003
Pit
300
    5,036
46%
54%
446
 1,488
 3.34
10
306
533
 3,548
 6.7
19
17
Avg
347
    5,754
50%
50%
513
 2,127
 4.09
14
310
513
 3,626
 7.1
20
17
Max
390
    6,156
56%
54%
580
 2,774
 4.78
17
350
551
 4,036
 7.3
26
22
Min
300
    5,036
46%
44%
446
 1,488
 3.34
10
274
454
 3,295
 6.7
16
12

FANTASY IMPACT

Like Knapp, Mularkey served as an offensive coordinator for the last three seasons. It's difficult to get a read on what Mularkey will do in Buffalo from his stint in Pittsburgh, because he was admittedly handcuffed somewhat by a conservative head coach to some degree with the Steelers. In fact, looking at Mularkey's three years as Pittsburgh OC, more questions arise than answers.

A team defined by smash mouth football saw its rushing attack dwindle from 2,774 yards in 2001 to just 1,488 yards in 2003. In addition, the team's attempts, yards per attempt and touchdowns also declined each season under Mularkey's watch. Yet, the passing game largely didn't compensate for the downturn in rushing output. There's no question that some the blame falls on the team's offensive line and running back situations, but one has to wonder then why Pittsburgh named o-line coach Russ Grimm an assistant head coach this offseason.

Mularkey has promised a balanced attack with the Bills, and the personnel appears suited for such a balance (Buffalo was overly pass heavy the last few seasons) given Bledsoe's age, and the presence of not one but two very talented running backs in Travis Henry and Willis McGahee. Mularkey's offensive coordinator Tom Clements, who coached the Steelers quarterbacks, will have two main duties this year: 1) Reinvigorating Drew Bledsoe after a horrible 2003 and 2) Mentoring first round draft choice J.P. Losman as the Bills eventual successor at quarterback. One final offensive coaching note, the team also brought in Jim McNally as offensive line coach, who worked miracles in New York.

Look for Mularkey and company to rebuild the offensive line to allow more protection for Drew Bledsoe, who can still make plays in the pocket, if protected. The team is also sure to strike a better balance between running and passing, making more liberal use of Travis Henry and Willis McGahee. The receiving corps won't be forgotten about either, and the trio of Moulds/Evans Reed will do their best impersonation of Ward/Burress/Randle El this season.

The scheme that powered the 2nd ranked defense in the NFL will stay the same, with Jerry Gray remaining as the team's defensive coordinator.


Chicago Bears

  • Head Coach - Lovie Smith; Smith spent the last three seasons as the defensive coordinator under Mike Martz in St. Louis. Smith was the Tampa Bay Bucs linebackers' coach for five seasons prior to taking the Rams job


  • Offensive Coordinator - Terry Shea; Terry Shea has learned from two of the best offensive minds in league history: Bill Walsh and Dick Vermeil. Most recently Shea served as QB coach in Kansas City, but has also had positions with Walsh at Stanford and as the head coach for Rutgers University


  • Defensive Coordinator - Ron Rivera; Rivera gets his first coordinator job in the town where he made a name as a player. Rivera is a local Chicago favorite, who cut his teeth as the Eagles linebackers coach under Andy Reid


FANTASY IMPACT

Offensively, this all comes down to Terry Shea. Lovie is a defensive guy, and he handpicked Shea to run this offense. Is he up to the task? We just don't know, but he is about as well schooled in the passing game as you could ask for, and that bodes well conceptually for Rex Grossman's development. Defensively you can bet on one thing, the team will make the linebackers the focal point of the scheme. Lovie prefers to run a cover-2, whereas Rivera has experience using aggressive zone blitz schemes; how much of each system is implemented probably comes down to evaluating the defensive talent on the roster.

No coach on the Bears staff has experience calling plays in the NFL. This is a surefire endorsement that, no matter how promising the young coaching staff may be longer term, there will be significant growing pains this year. Combine the coaches' inexperience with a reshuffled offensive line, a new starting quarterback and unproven receivers, and this is a team that shouldn't be expected to produce at a high level out of the gate.


New York Giants

  • Head Coach - Tom Coughlin; Coughlin takes over for Jim Fassel in New York in an unmistakable move to add toughness and discipline to the veteran team. Coughlin had a long stint as the Jacksonville Jaguars head coach, and aside from being a noted disciplinarian has a long history as an offensive coach, including serving under Bill Parcells for three seasons in New York


  • Offensive Coordinator - John Hufnagel; Coughlin selected John Hufnagel, the Patriots QB coach in 2003, shortly after the Patriots won the Super Bowl. Hufnagel will be responsible for grooming Eli Manning much in the way he worked with Tom Brady in New England


  • Defensive Coordinator - Tim Lewis; Tim Lewis joins the Giants staff after being let go by Bill Cowher in Pittsburgh. Lewis served as the Steelers defensive coordinator for the last few years, and is best known for his blitzing style, using linebackers to pressure the QB


Tom Coughlin
Rushing
Passing
Year
Team
TotPts
 TotYds 
 Run% 
 Pass% 
Att
 Yds 
 YPR 
TDs
Com
Atts
 Yds 
YPA
TDs
INTs
1995
Jac
275
    4,849
45%
55%
410
 1,705
 4.16
9
275
495
 3,144
 6.4
19
15
1996
Jac
325
    6,017
44%
56%
431
 1,650
 3.83
13
353
557
 4,367
 7.8
19
20
1997
Jac
394
    5,642
47%
53%
454
 1,720
 3.79
20
313
504
 3,922
 7.8
20
9
1998
Jac
392
    5,445
51%
49%
487
 2,102
 4.32
19
269
463
 3,343
 7.2
24
12
1999
Jac
396
    5,807
49%
51%
514
 2,091
 4.07
20
320
535
 3,716
 6.9
16
11
2000
Jac
367
    5,979
47%
53%
481
 2,032
 4.22
18
333
545
 3,947
 7.2
22
15
2001
Jac
294
    5,270
41%
59%
372
 1,600
 4.30
11
321
534
 3,670
 6.9
20
14
2002
Jac
367
    5,979
47%
53%
481
 2,032
 4.22
18
333
545
 3,947
 7.2
22
15
Avg
351
    5,624
46%
54%
454
 1,867
4.11
16
315
522
 3,757
7.2
20
14
Max
396
    6,017
51%
59%
514
 2,102
4.32
20
353
557
 4,367
7.8
24
20
Min
275
    4,849
41%
49%
372
 1,600
3.79
9
269
463
 3,144
6.4
16
9

FANTASY IMPACT

Tom Coughlin joins the Giants under similar circumstances to when he took over the expansion Jaguars. While the Giants have a cadre of proven veterans, the team appears committed to rebuilding around Eli Manning. Rookie quarterbacks struggle, but you can be sure that Coughlin will install an efficient passing offense. Coughlin's teams threw more TDs than INTs in all but one season. Recall the success that Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell enjoyed under Coughlin; which projects well for Amani Toomer, the Giants most talented and reliable pass catcher.

In looking over Coughlin's body of work, you see that his teams have never been horrible offensively; which again is a testament to his focus on minimizing turnovers and playing disciplined football. In contrast, his teams have never had a high yards per carry (odd given the presence of Fred Taylor in Jacksonville). While we're fans of Tiki Barber, it's unclear how he'll fit into Coughlin's offense and must not turn the ball over as he did in 2003; Coughlin's autocratic style won't tolerate turnovers of any kind.

Although it's not shown in the data, Coughlin has historically favored a goal line back. If Coughlin installs holdover Ron Dayne (or perhaps brings in a veteran such as Stacey Mack), that would negatively impact the fantasy value of Tiki Barber.

On the defensive front, the Giants are sure to blitz quite a bit more under Lewis, known for using aggressive blitz schemes, particularly with his linebackers.


Oakland Raiders

  • Head Coach - Norv Turner; Norv Turner apparently wanted so desperately to be an NFL head coach again that he took a job most coordinators had the foresight to turn down. Turner accepted a five-year deal to coach the Raiders and brings with him years of experience running the offenses in Dallas, San Diego, Miami and Washington (where he was also the head coach)


  • Offensive Coordinator - Jimmy Raye; Jimmy Raye, a Jets assistant the last two seasons, has been an offensive coordinator three times previously, and has coached for ten teams in his career. Raye is a fellow proponent of the vertical passing game set up by power running, similar to Turner's modus operandi


  • Defensive Coordinator - Rob Ryan; Rob Ryan, the son of defensive guru Bubby Ryan, spent the last four years coaching linebackers for the New England Patriots. Ryan got his start in the NFL as a secondary coach under his father in Arizona. He's also served as the coordinator at Oklahoma State


Norv Turner
Rushing
Passing
Year
Team
TotPts
 TotYds 
 Run% 
 Pass% 
Att
 Yds 
 YPR 
TDs
Com
Atts
 Yds 
YPA
TDs
INTs
1991
Dal
342
    5,374
46%
54%
433
 1,711
 3.95
15
305
500
 3,663
 7.3
16
12
1992
Dal
409
    5,718
50%
50%
500
 2,121
 4.24
20
314
491
 3,597
 7.3
23
15
1993
Dal
376
    5,778
51%
49%
490
 2,161
 4.41
20
317
475
 3,617
 7.6
18
6
1994
Was
320
    4,939
43%
57%
407
 1,415
 3.48
5
271
546
 3,524
 6.5
25
27
1995
Was
326
    5,452
47%
53%
469
 1,956
 4.17
15
265
521
 3,496
 6.7
16
20
1996
Was
364
    5,363
50%
50%
467
 1,910
 4.09
27
270
471
 3,453
 7.3
12
11
1997
Was
327
    5,196
45%
55%
453
 1,615
 3.57
12
283
547
 3,581
 6.5
22
22
1998
Was
319
    5,409
42%
58%
401
 1,685
 4.20
15
304
565
 3,724
 6.6
24
14
1999
Was
443
    6,151
46%
54%
463
 2,039
 4.40
23
324
537
 4,112
 7.7
26
14
2000
Was
281
    5,640
44%
56%
446
 1,748
 3.92
14
342
560
 3,892
 7.0
18
21
2001
SD
332
    5,380
44%
56%
435
 1,695
 3.90
13
309
548
 3,685
6.7
16
18
2002
Mia
378
    5,571
54%