Certain feats in pro sports are very remarkable (and rare) - scoring a hat-trick in hockey; batting .300 for a season or pitching a no-no in the major leagues; scoring over 50 points in consecutive games in the NBA. In pro football, that elite level of accomplishment would include the pro running back who manages to score 20 or more touchdowns in a single season. Heading into 2004, we have an extremely rare situation in that two running backs - Ahman Green of the Packers and Priest Holmes of the Chiefs - are both attempting to add a consecutive year onto a 20+ TD streak: Green is trying to repeat the feat, and Holmes is gunning for an unprecedented three-peat.

Since the advent of the 16 game schedule in 1978, there have been 10 different occasions when a RB has had the opportunity to repeat a 20+ TD season. To date, only 3 times has that feat been accomplished. The players who had 20+ TD seasons but did not manage a repeat were: Terry Allen, Terrell Davis, Eric Dickerson, Joe Morris, John Riggins (Ahman Green pending in 2004). In Addition, Marshall Faulk (2000, 2001) and Emmitt Smith (1994, 1995) had consecutive 20+ TD seasons, but did not manage a three-peat (Holmes pending in 2004). Obviously, stringing together 20+ TD seasons is to breathe some very rarefied air in the NFL (sort of like climbing Mount Everest). So, what does this history lesson tell us about Holmes' and Green's chances heading into 2004?

For one thing, it tells us that repeating a 20+ TD season is a difficult task. Some really great backs with really great OLs failed to duplicate their elite seasons, as detailed above. We need to look closely at the player's supporting cast, as no one person is responsible for a running back managing to score 20+ TDs Has the offensive philosophy changed in either Green Bay or Kansas City? What key players have been added or subtracted to/from each team's respective mix that might impact on the backs' chances of hitting pay dirt 20+ times in 2004?

As detailed by Footballguy Jason Wood, neither Green Bay nor Kansas City made significant coaching changes among their offensive staff in the offseason, so from the perspective of philosophy, neither Holmes nor Green should be expected to suddenly drop out of focus as a primary weapon on their respective team. Both figure to remain major cogs in their team's attack. In addition, both backs left 2003 in relatively good health, with no major complaints on that front. So far, so good.

Holmes gained ~74% of Kansas City's rushing yardage in 2003 (1420 yards out of 1929), and added 74/690/0 through the air (all 27 of his TDs were rushing scores!). Similarly, Ahman Green accounted for ~74% of Green Bay's rushing yardage in 2003 (1883 yards out of 2558) and added 50/367/5 through the air (15 of his 20 TDs were rushing scores). KC added 5 more rushing scores to the team total above Holmes' 27 scores; Green's Packers had 3 more rushing scores in 2003. Obviously, both guys were the #1 option on the ground in the redzone last year. Neither player has a serious pending challenge for playing time/touches as of this writing - they are both the featured backs on their teams.

However, one area of concern for Holmes crops up due to the departure of RT John Tait to Chicago. While Kansas City spin-doctors have called Tait the fifth-best OL on the 2003 team, don't believe the party line. The Chiefs franchised him, but couldn't afford to match the 6 year, $33.65 million contract with a $6.5 million signing bonus the Bears offered (5th-best linemen don't command $6.5 million signing bonuses and 6 year deals worth ~$33 million in the NFL, folks). The Chiefs averaged 5.8 yards per carry running to the right in 2003; 4.5 running to the left; and 3.9 going up the middle of the field. John Tait was a big part of that 5.8 yards per carry average on the right side of the field - Chris Bober is a major downgrade at RT, most observers agree.

In contrast, the Packers paid big bucks to keep LT Chad Clifton (6 years, $32.4 million with an $11 million signing bonus) in the fold, and the same 5 starters will line up along the OL for Green Bay to start the season where they played last year.

Of course, both players will need to enjoy as close to optimum health as possible over an entire season to reach 20+ scores again in 2004 - as noted above, neither has a serious issue in that direction heading into training camp. Holmes did manage to score 24 TDs in 2002 over only 14 games, so a short-term problem doesn't necessarily dictate an end to his three-peat run (but any lost time will make the task just a little more difficult).

In conclusion, while the odds of repeating a 20+ TD season aren't encouraging when considering the historical perspective, one has to admit that these two players have as much of an opportunity as either of the other two players to repeat 20+ TD seasons. Of the two, Holmes' attempt is likely to be hampered by the loss of RT John Tait, whereas Green enjoys stability among the starters along the OL in Green Bay. Both players will face defensive teams that are keying on their efforts, but that won't be a new experience for either guy.

In any case, both Holmes and Green figure to be exciting fantasy backs in 2004, and it will be fun to watch them charge at the 20+ TD barrier again this year. When you are making projections for either guy, though, maintaining some skepticism about their chances to repeat 20+ TD seasons will help you keep their numbers reasonable.

Have a great 2004 season!