|
|
Login / Signup |
|
A year ago, I wrote an article supporting the fantasy strategy known as Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC). This theory is based on two key principles. Number one, you want to choose two defenses that will be available late in your draft. Second, you want teams whose schedules will combine to create lots of matchups against weak offenses. With an efficient platoon system, the goal is for your defenses to sum to greater than their parts. The idea is that an average defense playing a bad offense is just as productive as a good defense playing an average offense. When using this strategy, you don't need to waste a high draft pick to get good production out of that position. Instead of spending an eighth rounder on last year's top Team Defense/Special Teams (D/ST), you can get that valuable depth needed at WR or QB. For this to work, you must be confident that you can draft your two Team Ds fairly late. In fact, the two teams I chose (you'll have to wait just a few more minutes for that) aren't ranked in the top fifteen by FBG projections, FBG expert rankings, or Antsports average draft position lists. Before we find our 2004 DTBC, you might be wondering how this fared a year ago. My 2003 defensive teams were Jacksonville and Seattle. While neither team lived up to their potential, both showed improvement in key areas. Seattle cracked the top ten in rushing yards per attempt allowed, while the Jags led the league in that metric. However, in fantasy terms, neither team was anything special. Jacksonville's pass rush never materialized, and the Seahawks couldn't defend the pass. They combined for just three touchdowns. In the league I drafted this DTBC, they finished eighteenth and twenty-second respectively. However, that's not nearly as important as how they did as a team. They ended up scoring more than all but six NFL D/STs, finishing just a hair behind Tampa Bay - the consensus top defense that went in the seventh round. (Note: I used the point totals for weeks 1-16 for my committee. In my 2003 article, I eliminated week 17 because most leagues don't count that week. Additionally, this served as a nice way to measure 'Jac-Sea' against all other teams, as they played the same amount of games as every other team, and not one more. For the record, in week seventeen, my DT scored right around their weekly average). I grabbed Seattle and Jacksonville with two of my last four picks. Needless to say, the defensive team by committee was quite a success last year. Why? Both teams were inconsistent, with Seattle showing particularly high variation in their defensive scoring. As expected, Jacksonville matched up better with Seattle than any other low-drafted D. Because I knew their schedules in advance, I was able to play the matchups extremely well. The combination ended up scoring 93% of what they would have scored if you had 20/20 vision and chose the correct defense each week. So, how do we find the great defensive team combo? I'm going to modify just slightly the criteria I used last year. We want four basic things:
The first and last ones are obvious. We don't want to spend a high pick on them, and we want to avoid facing the Kansas Cities and Indianapolises at all costs. Obviously, the teams we're going to draft didn't do too well last season, or else they would be going higher in fantasy drafts. What we want to see is a conscious effort to improve by the front office, either by bringing in a top defensive coordinator, a star defensive player, or a high draft pick. Last year, neither Seattle nor Jacksonville had much playmaking ability. I want teams that will be aggressive and force turnovers. I used Footballguys.com projections to rank the offenses. I scored them the following way: (0.3 x Points scored) + (0.03 x Total Yards) - (2 x Interceptions thrown). While most leagues count sacks and fumbles as well, I didn't for two reasons. They're extremely unpredictable, and I didn't have good sack or fumble projections for team offenses handy. After calculating the numbers for each team, I then sorted all the offenses, and ranked them from one to thirty two. Here's the list, which shows both how they are projected for 2004 and their 2003 rankings. (Note: When picking the worst offenses, I only used the 2004 projected rankings. The 2003 ranks are just there for reference).
As you can see, there is a lot of movement up and down the list from last year's rankings, and you can probably figure out the reasoning behind it. So now that we have rankings for our offensive teams, what do we do next? I went through every team's schedule, and ranked each game they played. If they played the Giants, the team was awarded thirty-two points; if they had a game against the Vikings, they got just one. A bye was worth zero points. To figure out which two-team combination was best, I went through all 496 pairings of schedules. Once again, I only did this for weeks one through sixteen, as most leagues have their championship game in week sixteen. Top five schedules
The top schedule combination was Washington and Philadelphia, with 411 'points'. (Note: Last year, the 'Sea-Jac' combination finished a bit behind 400 points.) However, it's obvious that Philadelphia will be drafted way too high to warrant consideration in a DTBC. Finishing not far behind them at 399 'points', is my 2004 Defensive Team By Committee combo: The Washington Redskins and Minnesota Vikings. According to FBG projections, Washington's D/ST is projected to finish nineteenth by FBGs, and Minnesota's is ranked twenty-first. Washington Redskins
The additions of Gregg Williams, Shawn Springs and Sean Taylor should go a long way towards improving a shaky defense. Williams was the Titans DC during their SB run, and his unit was second best in the league his last season in Tennessee. Last year in Buffalo, he again coached the number two defensive team in the league, despite a very mediocre DL. He's got another mediocre defensive line, but Washington is loaded with talent in the back seven. LaVar Arrington is one of the top defensive players in the league, and is the type of playmaker we want that can create turnovers. Barrow and Washington are solid additions to the LB position and should help to overcome the deficiencies of the front four. Washington has strong pass rushing skills, while Barrow (150 tackles in 2003) is a sound run stopper. While Arrington and Coach Williams are among the best at what they do, Washington's strength this year will be in the secondary - even without Champ Bailey. Sean Taylor is a stud, and should have an immediate impact a la Roy Williams in Dallas and Ed Reed in Baltimore. Fred Smoot is cocky but can back it up, and will be expected to play at a Pro-Bowl level this year. Shawn Springs should see his career rejuvenated under Williams. Remember, he was once the third overall pick in the draft. Matt Bowen is a hard hitting free safety, and should complement the rest of this group very well. All four starters are playmakers, and are talented pieces for Williams to use. Walt Harris, who started for the Colts a season ago, provides solid depth. I love the aggressiveness that the Redskins will have in 2004. Don't forget, this is the team that blitzed eleven players on the first play of the first practice of the season. Lastly, most leagues combine team defense and special teams as one unit. Chad Morton is the Redskins punt and kick return man, and is one of the most dangerous special teams players in the league. Minnesota Vikings
Ted Cottrell's arrival should finally provide some stability for the Minnesota Vikings. Cottrell is one of the more accomplished Defensive Coordinators in the league, mostly from his work with the Bills. There he coached a defense that finished first and third in yards allowed his last two seasons, utilizing a 3-4 defensive scheme. His first year with the Jets, they tied for the league lead by forcing thirty-nine turnovers. While Cottrell wore out his welcome in NY due to philosophical differences with defensive-minded Herman Edwards, he won't face that problem in Minnesota. Tice is hands off on the defense, and will be giving Cottrell total power. He's focusing on improving their team speed, as evidenced by an excellent offseason With a talented group of players, the Vikings have a lot of potential for 2004. Chris Hovan and Kevin Williams are probably the fastest, young DTs in the league. After a disappointing 2003, Hovan shed fifteen pounds and should excel in Cottrell's speed-based system. Williams was quick enough as a rookie to split time between DT and DE and rack up 10 ½ sacks. Udeze was one of the top pass rushers in college football, and should have an immediate impact with the Vikings. Ted Cottrell had success in New York developing high draft picks like John Abraham and Shaun Ellis, so he should know how to get the most out of this group. While not a group of famous names, all three of the LBs are skilled. E.J. Henderson and rookie Dontarrious Thomas were second round picks the past two seasons, while Chris Claiborne was a top ten pick in 1999. With strong direction, Claiborne might be able to finally reach his potential. He was having an impressive 2003 campaign before getting injured in mid-season. The Vikings have been paper-thin at CB in the past, but not this season. With the very talented Antoine Winfield coming over from Buffalo, they become a much better group. Despite being just 5-9, Winfield can shut down the opponent's top WR AND make an eye-popping hit. Brian Williams has safety size and is a playmaker (five interceptions last year), who should thrive as the number two corner. Corey Chavous made the Pro Bowl last year, while the other Safety, Brian Russell, led the league in interceptions in 2003. What we've all been waiting for The Combined Schedule
For NINE of the sixteen weeks, your D/ST will be facing one of the worst five offenses in the league. These teams have anemic offenses, and will likely be throwing interceptions to our playmaking defenses. There are only two real pitfalls for this schedule, weeks seven and fourteen (although both weeks you'll be starting a home team). Still, the average schedule is fantastic. There's simply no better combination out there of two teams with excellent schedules, and late value drafting, than the Minnesota Vikings and Washington Redskins. Alternates What happens if you get a DC native or Vikings homer in your league? Washington or Minnesota snatched the pick before yours? Fear not, there are still good combinations out there. Here are the top alternate matchups for both the Redskins and the Vikings. (Note: These are not based on whether or not I think the team will be an overachieving defense. These are simply the four teams that are not highly touted, whose schedules combine best statistically).
Stud Ds Let's say you don't agree with anything I've said so far, and you want one of the top eight Ds out there. Who should you select as your backup D? Washington has the best schedule in the league (if you exclude week seventeen), so they combine well with the stud Ds. If the best combination is Minnesota, I'll include an alternate choice. (Once again, these are all done by the mathematical best combinations, not factoring in how I view the team at all.) Best non-Washington, late Ds that you can combine with the studs:
Everyone take two already? OK, you just really don't like drafting Ds. Your eleven league-mates have grabbed their two, and you want to know how you can still get respectable points from your D/ST position. Here are some late, late D combos. Only included are the bottom ten defensive teams in the league:
I want only one D! The top five Ds based on easiest opposing schedule:
There you have it folks, anything and everything you need to know about your fantasy DTs this season. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to e-mail me at stuart@footballguys.com. |
|
Site Map | Contact
Us | Login
/ Signup | Fantasy Football Information | Fantasy Football Articles | Fantasy Football News | Fantasy Football links | | Fantasy Football Updates | Fantasy Football Humor | Fantasy Football Tools | Fantasy Football Forecast | ©Copyright Footballguys.com 2003, All rights reserved. |