Jason Wood's Thoughts

I'm clearly standing out on an island regarding Curtis Martin this season. While few are calling for his outright downfall, fewer still appear willing to endorse Martin to improve upon last season's 18th place finish. Yet, when I look at what Martin accomplished last season and how the team is positioned this year, I don't see why he isn't capable of once again putting together a top 20-fantasy season.

Last year was by most accounts a successful one for this future Hall of Fame running back. He played in all 16 games and finished with 1,308 yards rushing. His yards-per-rush (4.0) was in line with his career mark and he caught more than 40 passes for the eighth season in a row. The only reason Martin failed to make a larger fantasy impact (recall, he finished 18th) was that he only scored two touchdowns last year.

So enter this season and it seems as though people are writing Martin off as a fantasy option. Granted, he's coming off back-to-back seasons where he finished 18th. When you combine that with his age and considerable workload, one can understand that some might have reservations about building their fantasy teams around.

While I certainly concur that other options are more intriguing at the RB position, I also believe Martin is far from washed up and would make a serviceable RB2 and an ideal RB3 this year in performance redraft leagues.

The Jets return the same coaching staff, offensive system and the bulk of the offensive line. Guards Brandon Moore and Brent Smith enter this season as full time starters for the first time, but they played a good portion of last season too (in place of Tom Nutten and Dave Szott) and are proven commodities.

But there is one major difference between 2004 and 2003 that, in my view, is directly responsible for both my more positive outlook for Curtis Martin and the misplaced conservatism on the part of the consensus. And that is the return of a healthy Chad Pennington.

Take a look at Martin's 2003 season splits; with Chad Pennington under center and without. It's startling.

Weeks 1 through 7 (without Pennington)

• 98 carries for 362 yards (3.7 YPC)
• 77 receiving yards
• Zero touchdowns
• Zero 100+ yard rushing games

Weeks 8 through 17 (with Pennington):

• 225 carries for 946 yards (4.2 YPC)
• 185 receiving yards
• 2 touchdowns
• 4 100+ yard rushing games

It doesn't take Einstein to see that Martin's solid 2003 would've actually looked even more impressive had Chad Pennington been in the lineup from day one. Projecting the two splits over a full 16-game schedule should crystallize the impact of a healthy Pennington:

2003 Splits projected over 16 games (with & without Pennington)

• Without - 261 carries for 965 yards rushing, 205 yards receiving, 0 TDs
• With - 360 carries for 1,514 yards rushing, 296 yards receiving, 3 TDs

Now, there's no question that 3 touchdowns isn't going to accomplish much, but as any veteran fantasy gamer realizes, touchdown production is the most variable from year-to-year and Martin's history dictates that he won't score such a paltry amount again in 2004. But even if he only scores five or six times in 2004, his yardage continues to be good enough to warrant consideration as your RB2; and makes an ideal RB3 and spot starter.

Positives

• Maintained a high level of production last year, with over 300 carries and a 4.0 YPC
• Chad Pennington returns healthy to start the season; and Martin was demonstrably more productive with Pennington under center (see above)
• The team added Justin McCareins, further creating the need for opposing defenses to respect the passing game
• Lamont Jordan was on the trading block this offseason, fueling belief that he's no closer to stealing carries this season as he was in the past
• The offensive line returns intact from the unit that saw Martin resurgent in the 2nd half of 2003

Negatives

• Martin scored only 2 touchdowns last season in 365 touches; his TD production has declined four years running
• Martin is on the wrong side of 30 and has a workload (9th all time in rushes) that few RBs have ever been able to maintain at this stage of his career
• Martin's yards per rush and receptions have declined for the last three seasons

Final Thoughts

Current mock drafts put Martin as the 26th RB off the board, going in the 5th round of 12-team performance leagues. That's ridiculous and I would recommend to anyone that they grab Martin in the late 3rd or early 4th as their RB2 (provided you went for value at QB/WR in one of the first three rounds) or as an ideal RB3. Martin showed last year that he has plenty left in the tank and was on pace for more than 1,500 yards rushing once Chad Pennington was back in the lineup. The addition of a healthy Pennington and Justin McCareins to go along with Santana Moss ensures that defenses won't be able to key on Martin as they did in the first six games of 2003. While Martin's days as a fantasy stud are likely behind him, current perception appears to sell his actual fantasy value well short.

Maurile Tremblay's Thoughts

Curtis Martin has rushed for over 1,000 yards in each of his first nine seasons in the league, something only he and Barry Sanders have done. His greatest assets are his vision, patience, balance, and toughness. He runs with very good lower-body strength and can make yards after contact. He is also a fine receiver out of the backfield. He lacks great pure speed and elusiveness, however, and rarely breaks long runs.

Martin is also as mentally tough as they come, willing to play through any combination of nagging injuries. Though his ankle injuries in 2002 would likely have sidelined many RBs, Martin hasn't missed a game since 1998.

Here's an interesting statistic that probably isn't just coincidence. In 2002 and 2003, Curtis Martin played 23 games with Chad Pennington as the starting quarterback, and 9 games with Vinny Testaverde as the starter. In the games with Pennington, Martin averaged 4.3 yards per carry, 86 rushing yards, and 0.4 touchdowns. In the games without Pennington, Martin averaged 3.4 yards per carry, 46 rushing yards, and 0 touchdowns. If Pennington can stay healthy for all of 2004, Martin could improve on his 2003 season totals.

Positives

• Dependable. Has been a top 20 fantasy RB in each of his nine seasons in the league, and top 10 in six of those nine seasons.
• May have a full season of Pennington at QB.
• Finished the 2003 season strongly, with over 900 yards rushing and receiving in the final eight games.

Negatives

• TD totals are low because he doesn't break long runs, and Lamont Jordan gets many of the goalline carries.
• His running style results in his taking a lot of punishment, so the potential for injury is a concern.
• YPC has declined in each of the past two seasons.

Final Thoughts

In his nine seasons in the NFL, Curtis Martin has amassed a staggering 2,927 rushing attempts and 3,147 touches. He will run out of steam one of these years. Based on his 2003 performance, however, he is still going strong; and he looked particularly good in the second half of the season. He is still a better running back than Lamont Jordan, and will still get the bulk of the carries in 2004. Martin may no longer have the upside potential to be your RB1, but he is a reliable RB2 who will probably slide further than he should in most drafts because he is perceived as a somewhat boring pick.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

nerangers:
"Everyone said Curtis had a rough and bumpy year (in 2003). Yet, somehow he amassed over 1,300 yards rushing for his 9th straight 1000-yard season. His TD production was an all time low though. The loss of Pennington did not help, and the attempt to make Jordan the goal line back cut into his TDs. I think there is still gas in the tank, and as long as he is healthy, he will hit is 10th 1000-yard season."

Kaso:
"Martin amazes me every year. For the last couple of years I really thought Jordan was going to break out and leave Martin's numbers in the dust. But Martin has continued to produce every season.

His numbers clearly weren't the best in the league last year, but as long as you didn't draft him too high he would have been a valuable back to have on your roster. And I see the same thing coming this season."

Musesboy:
"Projecting a favorable set of figures over a whole season is easily done, and it doesn't mean that a player can maintain that pace. What it does show is that Martin isn't done yet. It is doubtful that he will suddenly put up the best numbers of his career at this point, but I do think that we will see a few more TDs than last year."

Workhorse:
"The best thing about Curtis Martin the past couple of seasons, from an FF perspective, is that he tends to be OVERrated come draft time, and UNDERrated as he gets off to a slow start, making him a prime candidate for "buy low" on the trade market."

Kilroy:
"Will Curtis Martin be worth starting on my fantasy team? To answer the last question you simply need to look at what Martin has done over the past few seasons. While it's true they haven't been his best, Martin has proven he is still a productive back. The only thing that has kept him from being a standout player the last few seasons is his lack of TDs and with Lamont Jordan still getting goal line carries it's unlikely Martins total will rise by much this season."

Curtis Martin Projections