Upside by Andy Hicks
Hines Ward continually gets undervalued. Last year Ward outperformed Terrell Owens, Laveranues Coles, Joe Horn
and Derrick Mason, all of whom are commonly ranked above Ward this year. Even a player such as Eric Moulds continues to be ranked near Hines Ward.

Using Moulds as an example, since his breakout season in 1998 Moulds has only finished the season as a #1 receiver once in a 12 team league and that was in 2002. Hines Ward backed up his huge 2002 season with another impressive effort in 2003 and should be thought of as one of the receiving elite.

Hines Ward is a clear cut #1 fantasy receiver in just about every category you can imagine. He has three consecutive years of 90+ receptions, three consecutive 1000+ yard seasons and two consecutive double digit touchdown seasons.

Some may have reservations because of the Quarterback position at Pittsburgh. The last two seasons have had Kordell Stewart and Tommy Maddox throwing The ball, so I can't imagine how a Maddox/Batch/Roethlisberger combination could affect his stats in any significant way. Pending a holdout, Plaxico Burress is a legitimate threat opposite Ward and regardless of whether Burress is great, as he was in 2002, or mediocre as he was in 2003, Ward will still get his numbers. Additionally no legitimate #3 wide receiver looks to be emerging in Pittsburgh to poach numbers.

The offensive line should be a much healthier outfit than last year and this will give Ward more of the freedom he had in 2002. Unlike all the receivers I mentioned earlier, Ward has not missed a game in the last 5 years. His toughness and competitiveness are well known and respected throughout the league. I've tried coming up with reasons as to why Ward should be ranked lower than the contemporaries previously mentioned, but Ward gives every indication of being one of the more certain top 5 candidates.

Downside by David Yudkin
More Receiving Threats and Potential Rookie QB Key Areas for Concern

Sharing the Workload
Ward is a solid fantasy WR, ranking as the #3 and #6 WR the past two seasons. But given the make up of the Steelers, there are only so many receptions to go around. In 2002, Pittsburgh had a renaissance in their passing game. Last year, they had almost 50 fewer completions and a 25% drop-off in TD passes.

The Steelers added Duce Staley, who 3 times has had 50+ receptions with a high of 62. Staley could haul in 20 passes a year more then the departed Amos Zereoue did. Plaxico Burress should rebound after his reception total fell by almost 20. Antwaan Randle El struggled some and is looking to break out in 2004. If he can get 50 catches, that would be close to 15 more than last year. Those players could get 50-55 more receptions over last year, and many of them could come at the expense of Ward.

Who is Throwing the Ball?
Tommy Maddox is still the starter and is disgruntled over his contract. The Steelers drafted Ben Roethlisberger to be their QB of the future, but when he will start is anyone's guess. Maddox struggled more than he did in 2002, and if that trend continues, we may see Big Ben sooner than later. Very few rookies hit the ground running (although many have hit the ground), and that could be the single biggest concern for Ward's production.

Even with Maddox last year, Ward's numbers dropped significantly in the last month, posting only 17-240-1 over the last 4 games.

Bottom Line
Ward should still be productive, but his numbers could drop off slightly in 2004. He will probably rank as a Top 10 or Top 15 WR, but based on his projected draft position, he might not be a great value this upcoming season.