Drinen - Similar Scores

About twenty years ago, baseball analyst Bill James introduced the notion of similarity scores. The idea is this: given a player's stat line, search through the historical archives to find the past player seasons that most closely resemble the given stat line.

For example, consider Chad Johnson's 2003 season. For our purposes, the notable data about his season are:

He was young (25).
He had a great year (#3 ranked WR).
He had a fairly typical ratio of yards to touchdowns.
He had a fairly high yards-per-catch average.
He was the clear #1 receiver on his team (accounting for 37.7% of the Bengals' receiving yards).

So I cooked up a program that digs through every player season since 1970 looking for the ones that look most like the above. Here are a few of the best matches, with Johnson's line on top for comparison:

                                                       PctOf
Player            Year  Age    G  REC    YD    Y/R  TD  TmYd Rank
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Chad Johnson      2003   25   16   90   1355  15.1  10  37.7   3
James Lofton      1981   25   16   71   1294  18.2   8  36.2   4
Mark Carrier      1989   24   16   86   1422  16.5   9  38.8   3
Carlos Carson     1983   25   16   80   1351  16.9   7  28.8   3

I've got a formula that attaches a similarity score --- some number between 0 and 1000 --- to each pair of seasons. A perfect match scores 1000. Lofton's 1981 scored a 897, Carrier's 1989 scored an 885, and Carson's 1983 scored an 772. Many player seasons don't have any matches above 850, so these can be considered pretty close matches.

If you really want to get a list of guys who were Chad Johnson before Chad Johnson was, though, you need to go back (at least) one more year. So I had the computer calculate similarity scores between Chad Johnson's 2002 season and these players' seasons before. Then I weighted the more recent season 75% and the prior season 25% to get an overall similarity score. In this case, it turned out like this:

          Year N    Year N-1    Overall
Player     Score      Score       Score
---------------------------------------
Carrier     885        761         854
Lofton      897        532         806
Carson      772        902         804

So, at least according to my formula, the player in all of (post-merger) NFL history whose numbers most resemble the current version Chad Johnson is the 1990 Mark Carrier.

Who cares?

Well, the application is obvious. If you want to know how Chad Johnson is going to do in 2004, one way to get a guess would be to look at players who used to look like Chad Johnson now looks, and see how they did.

This idea seems to have a lot of potential, because it has the capacity to combine various aspects of the player's production and see if there is any interaction among them. Let me be more explicit about that. Suppose we know that, in general, yards-per-catch is useless as an indicator of future production. In other words, players with a high yards-per-catch average, as a group, do not tend to do better or worse than players with a low yards-per-catch. So in the absence of other information, Chad Johnson's high YPC figure is neither a red flag nor a reason for optimism. It tells us nothing.

But maybe when a high YPC is combined with other characteristics, it can give us a hint. Maybe high-YPC receivers who also had a lot of TDs tend to hold value well while high-YPC receivers who rarely find the endzone tend to drop off sharply. Maybe high-YPC receivers who are young tend to get better while high-YPC receivers who are old tend to get much worse (even worse, maybe, than other old receivers). Maybe a high YPC is good news for an elite receiver, but is a bad omen for a run-of-the-mill receiver. If any of those things happen to be true, then a standard study of YPC only will not pick them up. But this method, because it tries to find players who have the same combination of characteristics, should be able to identify them.

Chad Johnson's 20 closest comps saw their per-game fantasy production decline by about 14% the following season. If Johnson suffers the same decline, he'll produce about 10.5 fantasy points per game this season. Keeping in mind that some decline is expected from almost any top player, 10.5 points per game seems like a reasonable projection for Johnson in 2004.

Many of you are no doubt tearing your hair out: There's more to life than stat lines, Drinen! You can't simply reduce a human being to a collection of numerals on a page and hope to truly understand his chances of success!

That is true. But let me point out that, whether you like cruncing numbers or not, this general method is exactly how you make most of your projections, not just in football, but in life. If you see dark clouds rolling in, you predict rain. Why? Because most of the time, when you see a similar cloud configuration, rain follows. If you drink way too much on night N, you know you're not going to feel good on morning N+1. How do you know? Because similar benders have induced unpleasant mornings.

Likewise, if you think Chad Johnson is going to struggle because his team is breaking in a young quarterback, you're making the observation that players whose teams were in similar situations had trouble. If you think Roy Williams is going to do well this year because of his size/speed combination, then that opinion is arrived at by noting that other receivers with that size/speed combination (i.e. receivers that are similar to Williams in that way) tend to do well.

The method is sound. The problem is that there have been no players who are truly similar to Chad Johnson in every way. And even if there had been, we don't have enough information to identify them. The most we can hope for is to identify the players who were the most similar in as many objective, measurable ways as we can. That's what I've tried to do here.

Let me say right now that I have no idea if this method of forecasting is of any practical use at all. Just for grins, I told the computer to pretend it was pre-season 2003 and run this method on all receivers. It was very high on Torry Holt and very low on Donald Driver (that's good). It liked Travis Taylor and disliked Hines Ward (that's bad). In others words, it had some hits and some misses, just like every other forecasting method ever devised. And on each of the hits, it is far from clear whether this scheme deserves any credit, or whether it just made a lucky guess. Likewise with the misses. Only a detailed comparison of this method against some baseline projection method over a long period of years would tell us whether we're onto something or not.

Frankly, the system makes some predictions that I just don't understand. It really dislikes Santana Moss, for example, and I'm not sure why. Whether there's something to it or not, I have no idea. But ultimately, I'm publishing these lists because they're interesting and they're fun.

Before we dive in, I have to tell you a few things about how the similarity scores are computed.

Because wide receiver usage patterns have changed quite a lot over the years, the similarity scores will pair some guys whose stats don't look particularly similar at first glance. For example, one of Santana Moss's closest comps was Frank Grant 1975:
```
                                                       PctOf
Player            Year  Age    G  REC    YD    Y/R  TD  TmYd Rank
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Santana Moss      2003   24   16   74   1105  14.9  10  31.4   8
Frank Grant       1975   25   14   41    776  18.9   8  25.1   7
```
First note that, in 1975, 14 games was a full season, so my method doesn't see any difference in the G column. Further, even though 776/8 doesn't look like much now, it was pretty big stuff in those days, as evidenced by his #7 rank that year. My method is programmed to recognize that these are two very similar seasons --- quality-wise --- even though the raw numbers aren't similar. Finally, leaguewide yards-per-reception numbers have been declining steadily for the last 30 years. Compared to league norms, 14.9 in 2003 isn't too much different from 18.9 in 1975.
Also, the strike seasons of 1982 and 1987 have been adjusted for the loss of games. Harold Carmichael's 1982 season (540/4) scores pretty close to Keenan McCardell's 2003 (1174/8) because, among other reasons, Carmichael ranked #9 and McCardell #10.
I really wish height and weight were included in the similarity scores, but unfortunately they are not. I don't have that data for historical seasons in an easily useable form. In a sense, it's a bit odd to say that a waterbug like Steve Smith is similar to a big receiver like Rob Moore, but those kinds of things show up from time to time.
The entire formula is pretty involved. If you want to examine it, you can find it here.
For each receiver, I'll compute how the 20 most comparable players did in their next season. Instead of taking a straight average of the 20, though, I'll use a weighted average, weighted by how close the similarity was. This way, truly similar players will influence the projection more than players who were only vaguely similar. In practice, this makes very little difference, but it feels more correct to me.

Similar to: Randy Moss

Name	Year	Age	Games	Rec YD	Yd Per Rec	Rec TD	Pct Tm YD	Rank	Sim Score1	Sim Score2	Sim Score Tot	FP Delta
R Moss	2003	26	16	1632	14.7	17	39.1	1	1000	1000	1000
R Green	1983	26	16	1227	15.7	14	37.1	2	843	559	772	0.9
T Owens	2001	28	16	1412	15.2	16	39.7	2	827	467	737	0.9
A Rison	1993	26	16	1242	14.4	15	32.8	2	784	565	729	-2.9
H Moore	1995	26	16	1686	13.7	14	37.4	3	763	576	716	-4.3
J Rice	1989	27	16	1483	18.1	17	32.4	1	796	471	714	-1.6
T Holt	2003	27	16	1696	14.5	12	39.6	2	781	502	711
M Gray	1975	27	14	926	19.3	11	35.4	1	756	574	710	-2.4
S Sharpe	1992	27	16	1461	13.5	13	41.8	1	785	475	708	-1.9
A Freeman	1998	26	15	1424	17.0	14	32.8	2	741	595	704	-6.2
M Harrison	2001	29	16	1524	14.0	15	36.1	1	764	508	700	-0.2
A Jenkins	1981	29	16	1358	19.4	13	34.1	1	722	608	694	-8.8
K Burrough	1977	29	14	816	19.0	8	38.7	2	719	612	692	-4.7
M Harrison	2000	28	16	1413	13.9	14	32.0	2	719	572	682	1.1
M Quick	1985	26	16	1247	17.1	11	30.9	2	742	469	674	-2.7
J Jefferson	1980	24	16	1340	16.3	13	28.3	1	716	483	658	-6.5
J Rice	1986	24	16	1570	18.3	15	36.5	1	807	210	658	4.6
R Moss	2000	23	16	1437	18.7	15	35.8	1	698	507	650	-2.9
J Rice	1990	28	16	1502	15.0	13	34.4	1	750	346	649	-1.5
H Ellard	1988	27	16	1414	16.4	10	35.3	1	721	421	646	0.7
J Rice	1993	31	16	1503	15.3	15	33.5	1	708	456	645	-0.3
S Largent	1979	25	15	1237	18.7	9	32.6	1	613	732	642	-2.9
S Largent	1981	27	16	1224	16.3	9	32.8	3	588	805	642	-3.2

Weighted Fantasy points per game: 13.8 ---> 11.9 (-13.9%)

Similar to: Torry Holt

Name	Year	Age	Games	Rec YD	Yd Per Rec	Rec TD	Pct Tm YD	Rank	Sim Score1	Sim Score2	Sim Score Tot	FP Delta
T Holt	2003	27	16	1696	14.5	12	39.6	2	1000	1000	1000
H Ellard	1988	27	16	1414	16.4	10	35.3	1	889	740	852	0.7
S Sharpe	1992	27	16	1461	13.5	13	41.8	1	813	732	793	-1.9
C Johnson	2003	25	16	1355	15.1	10	37.7	3	816	657	777
M Carrier	1989	24	16	1422	16.5	9	38.8	3	795	602	747	-5.7
T Brown	1994	28	16	1309	14.7	9	36.8	5	797	569	740	0.6
D Clark	1982	25	9	913	15.2	5	34.2	2	735	694	725	-5.1
J Lofton	1981	25	16	1294	18.2	8	36.2	4	746	619	715	1.3
R Moss	2003	26	16	1632	14.7	17	39.1	1	781	502	711
R Green	1983	26	16	1227	15.7	14	37.1	2	731	652	711	0.9
S Largent	1981	27	16	1224	16.3	9	32.8	3	719	596	688	-3.2
S Watson	1984	27	16	1170	17.0	7	37.5	8	710	621	688	-2.3
M Harrison	1999	27	16	1663	14.5	12	39.8	1	914	0	685	-0.8
J Gilliam	1972	27	14	1035	22.0	7	38.0	2	736	520	682	0.3
M Irvin	1995	29	16	1603	14.4	10	42.8	7	700	619	679	-3.9
H Moore	1995	26	16	1686	13.7	14	37.4	3	808	278	676	-4.3
R Moore	1997	29	16	1584	16.3	8	40.1	1	728	497	670	-4.9
G Clark	1990	28	16	1112	14.8	8	30.8	3	736	459	667	2.2
M Quick	1985	26	16	1247	17.1	11	30.9	2	747	411	663	-2.7
M Irvin	1993	27	16	1330	15.1	7	36.8	4	754	352	653	-1.0
A Reed	1989	25	16	1312	14.9	9	34.2	4	692	525	650	-2.7
C Carson	1983	25	16	1351	16.9	7	28.8	3	636	680	647	-3.4
A Jenkins	1981	29	16	1358	19.4	13	34.1	1	674	566	647	-8.8
C Joiner	1976	29	14	1056	21.1	7	39.3	4	690	481	638	-4.1

Weighted Fantasy points per game: 12.3 ---> 10.2 (-17.3%)

Similar to: Chad Johnson

Name	Year	Age	Games	Rec YD	Yd Per Rec	Rec TD	Pct Tm YD	Rank	Sim Score1	Sim Score2	Sim Score Tot	FP Delta
C Johnson	2003	25	16	1355	15.1	10	37.7	3	1000	1000	1000
M Carrier	1989	24	16	1422	16.5	9	38.8	3	885	761	854	-5.7
J Lofton	1981	25	16	1294	18.2	8	36.2	4	897	532	806	1.3
C Carson	1983	25	16	1351	16.9	7	28.8	3	772	902	804	-3.4
H Ellard	1988	27	16	1414	16.4	10	35.3	1	830	639	782	0.7
H Moore	1994	25	16	1173	16.3	11	38.0	6	814	671	778	4.3
T Holt	2003	27	16	1696	14.5	12	39.6	2	816	657	777
G Clark	1987	25	12	1066	19.0	7	28.7	3	808	508	733	-4.1
A Reed	1989	25	16	1312	14.9	9	34.2	4	798	465	715	-2.7
T Brown	1994	28	16	1309	14.7	9	36.8	5	788	460	706	0.6
A Freeman	1997	25	16	1243	15.3	12	31.9	2	799	417	704	2.8
S Largent	1979	25	15	1237	18.7	9	32.6	1	822	332	699	-2.9
D Boston	2001	23	16	1598	16.3	8	43.7	3	699	698	699	-5.7
T Hill	1980	24	16	1055	17.6	8	31.4	2	830	300	697	-2.3
M Irvin	1993	27	16	1330	15.1	7	36.8	4	783	435	696	-1.0
S Watson	1984	27	16	1170	17.0	7	37.5	8	701	681	696	-2.3
F Barnett	1992	26	16	1083	16.2	6	35.5	8	695	698	696	-4.7
D Clark	1982	25	9	913	15.2	5	34.2	2	746	539	694	-5.1
H Moore	1995	26	16	1686	13.7	14	37.4	3	804	340	688	-4.3
J Rice	1986	24	16	1570	18.3	15	36.5	1	682	694	685	4.6
C Joiner	1976	29	14	1056	21.1	7	39.3	4	694	628	677	-4.1
R Green	1983	26	16	1227	15.7	14	37.1	2	705	581	674	0.9
R Moore	1997	29	16	1584	16.3	8	40.1	1	687	635	674	-4.9

Weighted Fantasy points per game: 12.1 ---> 10.4 (-13.8%)

Similar to: Anquan Boldin

Name	Year	Age	Games	Rec YD	Yd Per Rec	Rec TD	Pct Tm YD	Rank	Sim Score1	Sim Score2	Sim Score Tot	FP Delta
A Boldin	2003	23	16	1377	13.6	8	42.2	4	1000	0	1000
M Carrier	1989	24	16	1422	16.5	9	38.8	3	827	0	827	-5.7
D Boston	2001	23	16	1598	16.3	8	43.7	3	825	0	825	-5.7
I Bruce	1995	23	16	1781	15.0	13	43.3	2	783	0	783	-5.1
J Lofton	1981	25	16	1294	18.2	8	36.2	4	776	0	776	1.3
A Reed	1989	25	16	1312	14.9	9	34.2	4	771	0	771	-2.7
S Largent	1978	24	16	1168	16.5	8	34.3	2	763	0	763	1.5
M Irvin	1991	25	16	1523	16.4	8	41.6	2	763	0	763	-1.2
A Miller	1989	24	16	1252	16.7	10	38.0	5	755	0	755	-3.2
I Bruce	1996	24	16	1338	15.9	7	42.6	8	743	0	743	-1.7
H Jackson	1972	26	14	1048	16.9	4	41.5	4	739	0	739	2.0
C Brown	1983	25	15	1225	15.7	8	32.5	5	730	0	730	-7.5
D Clark	1982	25	9	913	15.2	5	34.2	2	730	0	730	-5.1
R Moss	2002	25	16	1347	12.7	7	34.1	5	729	0	729	5.0
M Irvin	1993	27	16	1330	15.1	7	36.8	4	715	0	715	-1.0
A Rison	1990	23	16	1208	14.7	10	32.4	2	712	0	712	-0.8
C Johnson	2003	25	16	1355	15.1	10	37.7	3	712	0	712
S Largent	1980	26	16	1064	16.1	6	30.5	5	703	0	703	2.8
M Robinson	1999	24	16	1400	16.7	9	32.2	5	698	0	698	-2.6
G Crowell	1999	23	16	1338	16.5	7	32.8	8	693	0	693	-4.3
M Irvin	1995	29	16	1603	14.4	10	42.8	7	685	0	685	-3.9
R Moss	2001	24	16	1233	15.0	10	32.0	5	685	0	685	-0.1
G Clark	1986	24	15	1265	17.1	7	30.8	6	685	0	685	1.2

Weighted Fantasy points per game: 11.8 ---> 10.2 (-13.4%)

Similar to: Marvin Harrison

Name	Year	Age	Games	Rec YD	Yd Per Rec	Rec TD	Pct Tm YD	Rank	Sim Score1	Sim Score2	Sim Score Tot	FP Delta
M Harrison	2003	31	15	1272	13.5	10	29.7	5	1000	1000	1000
S Largent	1986	32	16	1070	15.3	9	31.3	8	766	598	724	0.8
C Carter	1996	31	16	1163	12.1	10	29.8	7	782	549	723	0.5
R Smith	2001	31	15	1343	11.9	11	41.9	4	749	627	718	-5.2
J Smith	2000	31	15	1213	13.3	8	30.7	12	733	672	718	0.3
T Owens	2003	30	15	1102	13.8	9	30.9	12	768	536	710
A Rashad	1980	31	16	1095	15.9	5	27.8	6	694	747	707	-0.6
S Largent	1985	31	16	1287	16.3	6	33.7	5	728	613	699	-0.2
S Largent	1984	30	16	1164	15.7	12	31.0	4	761	495	695	-1.5
J Rice	1992	30	16	1201	14.3	10	29.6	2	742	534	690	3.8
M Harrison	2000	28	16	1413	13.9	14	32.0	2	649	791	685	1.1
T Brown	1995	29	16	1342	15.1	10	35.4	9	692	657	683	-1.6
D Hill	1988	32	16	1141	15.8	10	36.0	6	768	419	681	-0.8
J Horn	2001	29	16	1265	15.2	9	32.9	7	700	605	676	-0.5
S Largent	1987	33	13	912	15.7	8	30.1	6	722	521	672	-5.9
A Carter	1990	30	15	1008	14.4	8	29.3	7	864	84	669	-3.2
G Clark	1990	28	16	1112	14.8	8	30.8	3	739	447	666	2.2
T Brown	1994	28	16	1309	14.7	9	36.8	5	713	507	662	0.6
S Largent	1983	29	15	1074	14.9	11	32.4	6	780	304	661	0.2
H Ward	2003	27	16	1163	12.2	10	32.8	6	677	592	656
H Carmichael	1979	30	16	872	16.8	11	30.3	8	655	607	643	-1.1
C Taylor	1973	32	14	801	13.6	7	31.3	6	714	425	642	-1.3
T Brown	1996	30	16	1104	12.3	9	33.2	10	666	558	639	0.3
T Martin	1996	31	16	1171	13.8	14	32.0	2	710	423	639	-4.7

Weighted Fantasy points per game: 11.1 ---> 10.3 ( -7.0%)

Similar to: Hines Ward

Name	Year	Age	Games	Rec YD	Yd Per Rec	Rec TD	Pct Tm YD	Rank	Sim Score1	Sim Score2	Sim Score Tot	FP Delta
H Ward	2003	27	16	1163	12.2	10	32.8	6	1000	1000	1000
H Moore	1996	27	16	1296	12.2	9	37.4	6	842	800	831	-0.4
S Largent	1981	27	16	1224	16.3	9	32.8	3	857	629	800	-3.2
A Reed	1991	27	16	1113	13.7	10	26.9	4	826	693	792	-4.3
A Reed	1990	26	16	945	13.3	8	27.8	9	795	762	786	2.5
H Moore	1997	28	16	1293	12.4	8	35.9	7	757	713	746	-2.5
S Sharpe	1993	28	16	1274	11.4	11	38.3	3	761	673	739	1.7
C Pickens	1996	26	16	1180	11.8	12	31.7	3	756	641	727	-3.6
K Johnson	1999	27	16	1170	13.1	8	39.0	12	696	802	723	-1.9
J Stallworth	1979	27	16	1183	16.9	8	30.5	6	814	445	721	-1.8
R Moss	2002	25	16	1347	12.7	7	34.1	5	721	673	709	5.0
T Brown	1996	30	16	1104	12.3	9	33.2	10	762	541	707	0.3
L Swann	1978	26	16	880	14.4	11	29.7	5	703	713	706	-0.6
M Quick	1986	27	16	939	15.7	9	28.9	12	689	747	703	2.8
A Reed	1989	25	16	1312	14.9	9	34.2	4	780	469	702	-2.7
J Galloway	1998	27	16	1047	16.1	10	32.5	9	732	601	699	-5.5
M Harrison	2000	28	16	1413	13.9	14	32.0	2	709	666	698	1.1
T Brown	1994	28	16	1309	14.7	9	36.8	5	743	561	697	0.6
H Moore	1995	26	16	1686	13.7	14	37.4	3	740	562	696	-4.3
F Biletnikoff	1972	29	14	802	13.8	7	30.9	5	770	473	695	-2.3
A Miller	1993	28	16	1162	13.8	7	34.3	7	719	623	695	-1.1
C Carter	1996	31	16	1163	12.1	10	29.8	7	742	555	695	0.5

Weighted Fantasy points per game: 11.2 ---> 10.5 ( -6.2%)

Similar to: Derrick Mason

Name	Year	Age	Games	Rec YD	Yd Per Rec	Rec TD	Pct Tm YD	Rank	Sim Score1	Sim Score2	Sim Score Tot	FP Delta
D Mason	2003	28	16	1303	13.7	8	32.3	7	1000	1000	1000
A Toomer	2002	28	16	1343	16.4	8	32.7	6	851	779	833	-2.9
A Jenkins	1980	28	16	1035	17.8	6	29.0	7	850	659	802	4.6
A Miller	1993	28	16	1162	13.8	7	34.3	7	946	314	788	-1.1
B Perriman	1995	30	16	1488	13.8	9	33.0	8	846	576	779	-4.6
T Brown	1993	27	16	1180	14.8	7	30.4	6	861	491	769	1.5
F Barnett	1992	26	16	1083	16.2	6	35.5	8	751	730	746	-4.7
H Ellard	1988	27	16	1414	16.4	10	35.3	1	726	718	724	0.7
T Brown	1994	28	16	1309	14.7	9	36.8	5	853	333	723	0.6
A Miller	1992	27	16	1060	14.7	7	29.3	5	834	385	722	0.6
W Francis	1979	28	16	1013	13.7	8	32.4	9	718	725	720	-1.3
C Carter	1993	28	16	1071	12.5	9	31.7	5	772	559	719	0.4
E Moulds	2002	29	16	1287	12.9	10	29.5	4	760	589	717	-5.4
M Irvin	1995	29	16	1603	14.4	10	42.8	7	825	380	714	-3.9
D Pearson	1979	28	15	1026	18.7	8	26.4	7	720	689	712	-4.2
J Horn	2001	29	16	1265	15.2	9	32.9	7	844	312	711	-0.5
G Clark	1990	28	16	1112	14.8	8	30.8	3	824	358	707	2.2
H Moore	1997	28	16	1293	12.4	8	35.9	7	857	252	706	-2.5
G Clark	1989	27	15	1229	15.6	9	27.5	7	801	412	704	-2.0
S Watson	1984	27	16	1170	17.0	7	37.5	8	854	245	701	-2.3
A Carter	1990	30	15	1008	14.4	8	29.3	7	727	623	701	-3.2
P Price	2002	26	16	1252	13.3	9	28.7	7	797	404	699	-4.7

Weighted Fantasy points per game: 10.8 ---> 9.4 (-12.3%)

Similar to: Santana Moss

Name	Year	Age	Games	Rec YD	Yd Per Rec	Rec TD	Pct Tm YD	Rank	Sim Score1	Sim Score2	Sim Score Tot	FP Delta
S Moss	2003	24	16	1105	14.9	10	31.4	8	1000	1000	1000
G Crowell	1999	23	16	1338	16.5	7	32.8	8	742	640	716	-4.3
F Turner	1991	25	16	927	14.5	8	27.1	12	718	617	693	-6.6
C Conway	1995	24	16	1037	16.7	12	27.0	12	739	549	692	-2.0
J Barkum	1973	23	14	810	18.4	6	34.4	8	814	322	691	-3.3
F Grant	1975	25	14	776	18.9	8	25.1	7	796	366	688	-1.3
A Miller	1989	24	16	1252	16.7	10	38.0	5	801	337	685	-3.2
B Hill	1988	24	14	1040	17.9	9	28.8	8	758	426	675	-5.1
C Chambers	2003	25	16	963	15.0	11	32.1	11	776	275	650
R Moss	2001	24	16	1233	15.0	10	32.0	5	862	0	646	-0.1
D Pearson	1975	24	14	822	17.9	8	29.0	6	857	0	643	-0.9
C Pickens	1994	24	15	1127	15.9	11	31.8	7	823	100	642	2.2
J Stallworth	1977	25	14	784	17.8	7	29.8	4	852	0	639	-0.6
R Brooks	1995	25	16	1497	14.7	13	33.0	5	788	185	637	-6.0
H Carmichael	1973	24	14	1116	16.7	9	34.5	1	697	395	621	-4.1
W Slaughter	1987	23	12	806	17.1	7	22.2	11	730	269	615	-2.2
K House	1981	24	16	1176	21.0	9	33.0	5	737	235	611	-4.6
B Brooks	1986	22	16	1131	17.4	8	31.3	9	805	0	603	-2.6
I Curtis	1976	26	14	766	18.7	6	31.4	10	804	0	603	-2.5
D Stingley	1977	26	14	657	16.8	5	30.4	9	773	75	599
T McGee	1989	25	16	1211	18.6	8	30.7	8	781	46	598	-5.8
J Galloway	1998	27	16	1047	16.1	10	32.5	9	796	0	597	-5.5
T Hill	1979	23	16	1062	17.7	10	27.3	5	793	0	595	-0.7
T Hill	1980	24	16	1055	17.6	8	31.4	2	793	0	595	-2.3

Weighted Fantasy points per game: 10.6 ---> 8.1 (-23.3%)

Similar to: Darrell Jackson

Name	Year	Age	Games	Rec YD	Yd Per Rec	Rec TD	Pct Tm YD	Rank	Sim Score1	Sim Score2	Sim Score Tot	FP Delta
D Jackson	2003	25	16	1137	16.7	9	29.4	9	1000	1000	1000
T McGee	1989	25	16	1211	18.6	8	30.7	8	873	491	777	-5.8
M Westbrook	1999	27	16	1191	18.3	9	29.0	9	858	510	771	-5.9
R Clark	1990	25	16	914	17.6	8	27.5	10	884	431	771	-1.6
W Davis	1993	26	16	909	17.5	7	26.9	9	872	396	753	-0.3
L Swann	1977	25	14	789	15.8	7	30.0	6	728	789	743	1.0
P Burress	2002	25	16	1325	17.0	7	32.8	8	809	442	718	-4.1
D Mason	2001	26	15	1128	15.5	9	29.2	11	784	512	716	-1.7
A Miller	1992	27	16	1060	14.7	7	29.3	5	689	724	698	0.6
R Proehl	1993	25	16	877	13.5	7	24.1	12	713	644	696	-2.2
D Logan	1979	25	16	982	16.6	7	25.6	12	715	618	691	-2.1
C Pickens	1994	24	15	1127	15.9	11	31.8	7	722	595	690	2.2
W Chrebet	1998	25	16	1083	14.4	8	26.9	13	706	632	687	-2.4
R Jarvis	1976	27	14	822	21.1	5	31.3	11	738	486	675	-5.1
J Barkum	1973	23	14	810	18.4	6	34.4	8	803	286	674	-3.3
C Chambers	2003	25	16	963	15.0	11	32.1	11	729	448	659
F Barnett	1992	26	16	1083	16.2	6	35.5	8	713	495	659	-4.7
A Toomer	2002	28	16	1343	16.4	8	32.7	6	706	488	652	-2.9
R Gardner	2002	25	16	1006	14.2	8	28.6	17	687	539	650	-3.0
K House	1981	24	16	1176	21.0	9	33.0	5	781	249	648	-4.6
G Washington	1974	27	14	615	21.2	6	27.0	11	700	476	644	2.1
R Jessie	1976	28	14	779	22.9	6	29.6	9	723	404	643	-3.8
M Gray	1974	26	14	770	19.7	6	30.9	5	842	28	639	3.3

Weighted Fantasy points per game: 9.5 ---> 7.7 (-19.0%)

Similar to: Keenan McCardell

Name	Year	Age	Games	Rec YD	Yd Per Rec	Rec TD	Pct Tm YD	Rank	Sim Score1	Sim Score2	Sim Score Tot	FP Delta
K McCardell	2003	33	16	1174	14.0	8	29.8	10	1000	1000	1000
Q Ismail	2001	31	16	1059	14.3	7	29.5	18