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Home Field Advantage
Posted 5/7 by David Dodds - Exclusive to Footballguys.com




Every sport has a home field advantage. The NFL is no different. Whether it is the fans being loud so the opponent can't hear the snap count, the electricity in a home stadium, the nuances associated with travelling, etc., home teams generally have an edge. Just ask the oddsmakers in Vegas. It is my intent with this article, to delve into the differences of home and away games and apply that to the game of fantasy football.

Specifically, I would like to discover these things:

  • How much better do teams play at home?


  • Do some teams play differently at home?


With these two questions in mind, I combed through the last two years of team data and have created the summary table below.

Notes:
  • Passing/Rush Stats are for the whole team regardless of position.


  • Passing fantasy points are calculated by dividing passing yards by 20, multiplying passing TDs by 4 and subtracting a point per interception.


  • Rushing fantasy points are calculated by dividing rushing yards by 10 and multiplying rushing TDs by 6.


  • Home refers to games designated as home on the NFL schedule regardless of venue played in.


  • Away refers to games designated as away on the NFL schedule regardless of venue played in.


  • Delta refers to the percent difference (Home FP - Away FP)/(Home FP)


  • Total reflects passing + rushing fantasy points


  • Ranking is based on total delta (largest home field difference)


  • The table reflects weeks 1-17 for the 2002 and 2003 season combined. This is exactly 16 home and 16 away games.


  • Full backup data can be found here
Passing (2002-2003) Rushing (2002-2003) Total (2002-2003)
Rank Team Home Away Delta Home Away Delta Home Away Delta
1 Chicago 233 175 24.9% 277 159 42.6% 510 334 34.5%
2 St. Louis 315 255 19.2% 289 183 36.7% 604 437 27.6%
3 Buffalo 252 228 9.4% 316 190 40.0% 568 418 26.4%
4 Houston 168 173 -2.7% 256 162 36.7% 424 335 21.0%
5 Dallas 236 170 27.9% 251 231 7.7% 486 401 17.5%
6 San Diego 244 202 17.3% 348 289 17.0% 592 491 17.1%
7 Miami 223 188 15.5% 365 299 18.1% 588 487 17.1%
8 Pittsburgh 283 237 16.1% 281 231 17.7% 564 469 16.9%
9 Oakland 248 252 -1.8% 340 244 28.4% 588 496 15.7%
10 Tampa Bay 306 242 21.1% 203 190 6.4% 509 432 15.3%
11 Washington 225 261 -15.7% 285 181 36.5% 511 442 13.5%
12 Carolina 238 167 30.1% 237 257 -8.5% 475 424 10.8%
13 Jacksonville 219 218 0.0% 331 276 16.6% 550 494 10.0%
14 Arizona 209 206 1.4% 235 195 16.9% 444 401 9.6%
15 San Francisco 267 257 3.8% 347 301 13.2% 615 558 9.1%
16 Seattle 268 288 -7.6% 326 261 20.2% 594 548 7.7%
17 Kansas City 292 279 4.5% 408 369 9.7% 700 648 7.6%
18 Philadelphia 256 241 5.6% 335 311 7.3% 591 552 6.6%
19 Baltimore 193 196 -1.7% 324 287 11.5% 517 483 6.6%
20 Cincinnati 230 271 -17.8% 295 226 23.3% 525 497 5.3%
21 Cleveland 249 220 11.7% 216 221 -2.3% 465 441 5.2%
22 Green Bay 236 331 -40.3% 379 253 33.4% 615 583 5.1%
23 Detroit 202 199 1.4% 193 178 7.8% 394 377 4.5%
24 Denver 266 219 17.5% 359 378 -5.4% 624 597 4.4%
25 Tennessee 283 275 3.0% 266 253 4.9% 549 528 3.9%
26 Minnesota 286 281 1.9% 376 356 5.4% 662 637 3.9%
27 NY Jets 256 257 -0.4% 226 218 3.5% 482 475 1.4%
28 New Orleans 268 273 -1.8% 275 264 4.0% 543 537 1.2%
29 New England 254 291 -14.5% 233 191 17.9% 487 482 1.0%
30 Indianapolis 313 304 2.9% 228 268 -17.4% 541 571 -5.7%
31 Atlanta 211 184 12.8% 303 365 -20.5% 514 549 -6.8%
32 NY Giants 214 277 -29.3% 242 221 8.8% 456 497 -9.1%
Averages 248 238 4.1% 292 250 14.3% 540 488 9.6%


Observations:
  1. The average NFL team scores 4.1% more passing fantasy points and a whopping 14.3% rushing fantasy points at home. Total fantasy points averages 9.6% higher at home.


  2. Three teams are actually better away than at home (Indianapolis, Atlanta and NY Giants)


  3. Exactly half of the teams are better at both passing and rushing fantasy points at home.


  4. Top 3 home teams are Kansas City, Minnesota and Denver. Surprisingly, the top 3 away teams are exactly the same in the same order.


  5. Bottom 3 home teams are Detroit, Houston and Arizona. The bottom 3 away teams are Chicago, Houston and Detroit.


  6. Green Bay has two different game plans. They run at home (+34.4%) and pass on the road (-40.3%).


  7. Washington has two different game plans. They run at home (+36.5%) and pass on the road (-15.7%).


  8. Chicago is an awful road team scoring 34.5% less fantasy points on average. Four teams average more than a 20% dropoff (Chicago, St.Louis at 27.6%, Buffalo at 26.4% and Houston at 21.0%)


Additionally, here are the situations that yielded greater than 20% difference in home and away fantasy points:
  1. Chicago Rushing (+42.6%): (Home: 1,810 yards, 16 TDs - Away: 1,290 yards, 5 TDs)


  2. Green Bay Passing (-40.3%): (Home: 3,153 yards, 24 TDs, 18 Int - Away: 4,031 yards, 37 TDs, 19 Int)


  3. Buffalo Rushing (+40.0%): (Home: 1,837 yards, 22 TDs - Away: 1,415 yards, 8 TDs)


  4. St. Louis Rushing (+36.7%): (Home: 1,685 yards, 20 TDs - Away: 1,226 yards, 10 TDs)


  5. Houston Rushing (+36.7%): (Home: 1,658 yards, 15 TDs - Away: 1,320 yards, 5 TDs)


  6. Washington Rushing (+36.5%): (Home: 2,074 yards, 13 TDs - Away: 1,511 yards, 5 TDs)


  7. Green Bay Rushing (+33.4%): (Home: 2,530 yards, 21 TDs - Away: 1,986 yards, 9 TDs)


  8. Carolina Passing (+30.1%): (Home: 3,445 yards, 21 TDs, 18 Int - Away: 2,693 yards, 13 TDs, 20 Int)


  9. NY Giants Passing (-29.3%): (Home: 3,616 yards, 13 TDs, 19 Int - Away: 4,070 yards, 22 TDs, 15 Int)


  10. Oakland Rushing (+28.4%): (Home: 2,139 yards, 21 TDs - Away: 1,535 yards, 15 TDs)


  11. Dallas Passing (+27.9%): (Home: 3,412 yards, 20 TDs, 15 Int - Away: 2,955 yards, 11 TDs, 22 Int)


  12. Chicago Passing (+24.9%): (Home: 3,575 yards, 18 TDs, 18 Int - Away: 2,617 yards, 16 TDs, 20 Int)


  13. Cincinnati Rushing (+23.3%): (Home: 1,987 yards, 16 TDs - Away: 1,721 yards, 9 TDs)


  14. Tampa Bay Passing (+21.1%): (Home: 4,028 yards, 30 TDs, 15 Int - Away: 3,572 yards, 20 TDs, 17 Int)


  15. Atlanta Rushing (-20.5%): (Home: 2,071 yards, 16 TDs - Away: 2,272 yards, 23 TDs)


  16. Seattle Rushing (+20.2%): (Home: 2,064 yards, 20 TDs - Away: 1,705 yards, 15 TDs)
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